92L fizzles; 92E strengthens while 93E is born

By: cyclonekid , 9:22 PM GMT on June 15, 2010

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92L kept its thunderstorms together last night but have disintegrated today. 92L was a very rare ITCZ disturbance that broke off from the ITCZ and organized itself. This is VERY rare for the month of June because wind shear usually is too strong for tropical development east of the Lesser Antilles. Development of this system is slim to none now because a combination of dry air and wind shear will tear this invest apart. This will be an invest that we will remember for a while because 92L formed very close to the equator and was rather large. It moved WNW and then enventually NW as a very well organized tropical low pressure system. However, currently 92L is not a threat to develop.

Models for 92L try to take it into the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico. Intensities call for 92L to dissipate but the remnant low to survive the wind shear. It would make it into the Caribbean as a very weak storm and strengthen to a Tropical Depression in the Northwestern Caribbean. It would then make its way into the Gulf of Mexico. However, this is way too far in advance to say if this is what will happen or not. I'm giving this a 10% chance to re-generate in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean.

A tropical wave that I was monitoring to the east of 92L has fizzled and poses no threat to develop. However, another wave behind that, models are trying to develop this into a major storm north of South America. One model that shows this is the ECMWF model. However, again this is too far in advance to tell if this will happen or not. This is another type of wait-and-see type storms.

An upper level feature in the Gulf of Mexico is sparking some concern. This will not develop because it is extremely unlikely for this system to become a low-level storm. The second reason is that the thunderstorms are all shear-enhanced. I give this system a 10% chance to become a tropical depression before the week ends. This is probably too high of a forecast considering this might not even develop. However, it will be monitored.

In the Eastern Pacific, 92E was declared yesterday as a weak tropical disturbance with 25mph winds with a pressure of 1008 millibars. Today it has strengthened very slightly to a 30mph disturbance with a pressure of 1007 millibars. This system has moved very little over the past couple of days. The NHC tropical analysis says that it is stationary. However, models depict some type of movement. Weather Undergrounds Tropical Center depicts it moving to the North at 3mph (As of 18Z). I've made my projected path on this system which takes it slowly to the northwest and then eventually turns it to the west. The NHC is giving this a 50% chance of development over the next 48 hours; 92E could become our 2nd tropical depression of the season. Conditions are marginally favorable with warm Sea Surface Temperatures and moderate wind shear. The low pressure is located a little to the east of all the convection that 92E has. I'm giving this system a 65% chance to become a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon. If this were to gain a name, the name would be Blas.


Image 1: 18Z 92E Tracking Map


Image 1: 18Z 92E Forecast

A new tropical invest was born in the Eastern Pacific today. 93E is a broad area of low pressure located just south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This is another system that bears watching over the next couple of days as it moves little to none. 93E is slowly getting it's act together as it drifts northwestward. Pressures with 93E are somewhat 'ok' for this system. 18Z analysis depicts 93E as having winds of 25mph and a central pressure of 1008 millibars. This is 'ok' for a system like this. For 93E to be classified as a tropical depression, it would need to compact itself, meaning 'not being as broad'. The NHC is giving this system a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. I think they are being a little conservative; I'm giving 93E a 65% chance of becoming a tropical depression before Thursday afternoon. If this were to gain a name, the name would be Celia.


Image 3: 18Z 93E Tracking Map


Image 4: 18Z 93E Forecast

My next blog will be issued tomorrow.

Cyclonekid

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1. originalLT
12:58 AM GMT on June 16, 2010
Thanks for your analysis, I will be checking your blog everyday. Nicely done.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7640

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