UPDATE Mon morning re snow tonight

By: cws6196 , 3:14 PM GMT on February 17, 2014

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This is becoming an interesting system. Thus far this winter the models have trended to show less snow than we have received, and if you recall, last week I insisted on higher amounts than what the models and NWS was saying, and we see how that turned out! So, I am again going a bit high on the amounts today. This is not "wishcasting", but looking at the data I am supported, if the variables come into alignment as I believe they will. The technical portion and my concerns are detailed below.

PRECIP TYPE: Snow for all except southren S MD which will see a mix of sleet and snow.

ACCUMULATION: For those N and W of Baltimore I see 2 - 4" possible; Baltimore and S metro area 1 - 3"; S MD 1 - 2" except the southern portion with only a dusting. There is potential for these amounts to go higher. See my discussion below.

TIMING: Late this evening through 7:00am Tuesday or so. The system is coming from the W and S, so those areas will have precip sooner. The morning commute will be disrupted.

DISCUSSION: A Low pressure system is moving to our N while a High pressure is to our NE. A resultant Low will form off the coast and move NNE. Typically this is a set up for us to have a lot of snow (recall last week), but this time the Low from the W looks to move too far to the N and is coming in fast. The speed is not allowing the coastal Low to strengthen and stick around long enough to bring us a decent snowfall. BUT ... if the Low to the W shifts further S we will see more snow, especially for those in S MD. If the system slows, the coastal Low will have more time to bring us heavier snow amounts. My forecast is based on what I feel the position of the Low will be as well as its speed. Any slight fluctuation will have the potential to bring us more snow.

I will have another update later tonight. I would not be surprised to see Winter advisories posted from the NWS later this afternoon. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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About cws6196

I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.

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Humidity: 44%
Wind: 1.0 mph from the WSW
Wind Gust: 4.0 mph
Updated: 6:51 PM AKDT on August 21, 2014

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