I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.
By: cws6196 , 3:14 PM GMT on February 17, 2014
This is becoming an interesting system. Thus far this winter the models have trended to show less snow than we have received, and if you recall, last week I insisted on higher amounts than what the models and NWS was saying, and we see how that turned out! So, I am again going a bit high on the amounts today. This is not "wishcasting", but looking at the data I am supported, if the variables come into alignment as I believe they will. The technical portion and my concerns are detailed below.
PRECIP TYPE: Snow for all except southren S MD which will see a mix of sleet and snow.
ACCUMULATION: For those N and W of Baltimore I see 2 - 4" possible; Baltimore and S metro area 1 - 3"; S MD 1 - 2" except the southern portion with only a dusting. There is potential for these amounts to go higher. See my discussion below.
TIMING: Late this evening through 7:00am Tuesday or so. The system is coming from the W and S, so those areas will have precip sooner. The morning commute will be disrupted.
DISCUSSION: A Low pressure system is moving to our N while a High pressure is to our NE. A resultant Low will form off the coast and move NNE. Typically this is a set up for us to have a lot of snow (recall last week), but this time the Low from the W looks to move too far to the N and is coming in fast. The speed is not allowing the coastal Low to strengthen and stick around long enough to bring us a decent snowfall. BUT ... if the Low to the W shifts further S we will see more snow, especially for those in S MD. If the system slows, the coastal Low will have more time to bring us heavier snow amounts. My forecast is based on what I feel the position of the Low will be as well as its speed. Any slight fluctuation will have the potential to bring us more snow.
I will have another update later tonight. I would not be surprised to see Winter advisories posted from the NWS later this afternoon. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.
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