Snow Monday in Maryland

By: cws6196 , 5:05 PM GMT on February 02, 2014

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Finally, here is my update on the snow potential for Monday. I have waited as long as I could, looking at all the data at my disposal. This is not an easy forecast for a number of reasons (explained below), so I waited to ensure I have this as accurate as possible for all of you.

TIMING: Rain will start later this evening, changing to snow W and N of Baltimore around 6:00am in the W, a bit later in the N. Changing to mixed precip in S MD late morning, early afternoon.

PRECIP: Will start as rain and transition to snow W and N of Baltimore. Mixed precip S of Baltimore to mainly rain in S MD.

ACCUMULATIONS: W and N of Baltimore could see 2-6 inches or even a bit more the further N you are. Just S of Baltimore could see an inch or two, and the further S you go the less snow there is. The speed of the approaching cold front will dictate snow amount as well as the length of the period of rain fall.

PROBLEMS: This forecast is tricky because it depends on temps to drop and a fast approaching cold front. There is enough moisture, that's not the issue. If we had the cold air of last week I'd say we all would be in for a foot or so of snow, but with the warm temps today that won't happen. The ice on the Bay will help with cooling the air, but if the front is too slow to arrive everyone will see rain and only an inch or so of snow. If the front moves in quick then more snow will accumulate for more people. See the problem? Since those N & W will be colder with precip falling in the early morning hours, snow is most likely. Those in S MD will have a later change over occurring when the sun is out, therefore less accumulation since the rain will be falling over a longer period of time.

BUST? Could this forecast totally bust? Yes! If the cold air does not move in as expected more people will see longer periods of rain and so less snow. Or, if the cold air moves in faster there will be a longer period of snow and so more accumulation.

I will have another update late today when I will be able to better determine the speed of the approaching cold front. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and storm updates.

update Sunday evening
I have decided to stick with my forecast as stated above.

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9:48 PM GMT on February 03, 2014
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About cws6196

I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.

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