UPDATE Monday morning re Maryland holiday snow

By: cws6196 , 5:14 AM GMT on November 25, 2013

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Well, looking over the data it appears that what I last wrote is still in effect with some minor tweaks. But before you get too excited, there's still a lot of uncertainty as the models are just now beginning to come into some agreement, but are still mainly all over the place. I will have a better handle on all this once the southern portion of the storm forms and moves. Once that is on the move it will help me to verify which of the models is closest to the actual path of the actual storm (the current data is still based on a yet unformed storm system).

As I said in my last post, most of us will see a rain event for most of the storm. That seems to be the given, with the rain occurring much of Tuesday into Wednesday. It is possible for us to have multiple inches of rainfall. Here's my summary:

CHANGES FROM MY LAST POST: Depending on the timing and location of the coastal low, the precip Tuesday morning could begin as freezing rain or sleet. There is some indication that late Wednesday, experiencing the effects of the wrap around precip of the exiting storm, we could see snow falling and accumulating. Its "possible" for central and S MD to have a couple inches of accumulating snow. But this is only possible, not yet definite. I will know more later Monday.

TIMING: Right now it appears the system will effect us Tuesday into maybe Thanksgiving day. Timing is key to the precip type, but the timing and exact location of the system are still not agreed upon by the data. As of now I would say the precip will start Tuesday morning and last until at least late Wednesday evening.

PRECIP TYPE: Timing is key. The air will be cold but most likely just above freezing most of the day Tuesday into Wednesday. Early Tues morning will be below freezing and late Wednesday into Thanksgiving will be close to freezing. The upper air will be below freezing. So, timing of the system, exact surface temp, and ground temp are all factors into what will happen. Right now I would say most of us will see a cold rain with some periods of sleet Tues morning and possible snow late Wednesday.

I will have another update later Monday. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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3. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:11 AM GMT on November 26, 2013
cws6196 has created a new entry.
2. cws6196
6:04 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
Given the current set up I would tend to think the roads should be fine by Thursday, although wet; assuming you aren't travelling at 5:00am.

Quoting 1. skylily:
I'm curious what you think will be the driving conditions for Thursday? This character of this particular storm seems to depend on multiple variables so it may be hard to say, but I'm wondering if it rains all day Wednesday + ice + snow, if the roads will be slick on Thursday for travel...
Member Since: September 26, 2004 Posts: 669 Comments: 434
1. skylily
5:20 PM GMT on November 25, 2013
I'm curious what you think will be the driving conditions for Thursday? This character of this particular storm seems to depend on multiple variables so it may be hard to say, but I'm wondering if it rains all day Wednesday + ice + snow, if the roads will be slick on Thursday for travel...
Member Since: November 20, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 11

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About cws6196

I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.

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AKDOT Parks Highway @ Talkeetna Road MP 98.3
Talkeetna, AK
Elevation: 393 ft
Temperature: -1.0 °F
Dew Point: -6.0 °F
Humidity: 82%
Wind: 1.0 mph from the ENE
Wind Gust: 3.0 mph
Updated: 9:50 PM AKST on November 27, 2014

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