Thanksgiving snow in Maryland?

By: cws6196 , 3:11 PM GMT on November 20, 2013

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Ok, here we go again. The models are hinting at snow for us next week and many on social media and the news outlets are once again running with the "story". I too have seen the data (for a few days now) but, as always, am cautious about long-range forecasting. If you recall a couple weeks ago the models gave us a similar pattern a week out, only for us, the week later, to not have any snow. I will say, though, that some of the dynamics in these model runs are a bit different from the last time (last time the data indicated snow from the west; this time a coastal), but still, too far away.

What I will say at this time is that the temps will continue to drop, and this weekend will be quite cold with the high temps only in the low 30's. There is a "chance" for those in central and northern Maryland to see some snow flakes later Sunday, but little to no accumulation. Those flakes will be from snow over the Great Lakes which will be blown in our direction (strong upper level jet). But after the weekend I am seeing indications of a slight warm up, and that's one of the reasons I am skeptical about snow around Thanksgiving. Nonetheless, there is a high probability that the main travel days (Tues - Thurs) could experience heavy rain and storms. As to precip type, I will wait until we are closer to next week for any determination.

I will have another update over the weekend, hopefully being able to be more definitive then. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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3. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:13 PM GMT on November 23, 2013
cws6196 has created a new entry.
2. cws6196
4:12 PM GMT on November 23, 2013
Yes, this far out the models do their "dance" and this is why I don't forecast long-range. I'm now posting an update to snow potential Sunday and again Tues - Wed.

Quoting 1. skylily:
I saw that snow in the long-range (10-day) forecast last night! It was updated away to 0% chance not too long later and I was wondering if I imagined it. But there was a brief period where 50% chance of snow was being predicted Thanksgiving and Friday after. It would be nice, but I guess it comes down to the timing of the front.
Member Since: September 26, 2004 Posts: 667 Comments: 434
1. skylily
8:01 PM GMT on November 20, 2013
I saw that snow in the long-range (10-day) forecast last night! It was updated away to 0% chance not too long later and I was wondering if I imagined it. But there was a brief period where 50% chance of snow was being predicted Thanksgiving and Friday after. It would be nice, but I guess it comes down to the timing of the front.
Member Since: November 20, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 11

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About cws6196

I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.

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