I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.
By: cws6196 , 7:11 PM GMT on November 08, 2013
There continues to be talk about snow next week for most of Maryland. Will it snow? That's the question which, unfortunately, cannot yet be answered. Many are trying to answer it, but to be honest, anyone telling you they know exactly what will happen is only guessing. The model data continues to shift the scenario, although the European model has remained fairly consistent with the idea of a storm.
If the models are to be translated literally (not good forecasting), we would see snow falling late Wednesday into Thursday with accumulations in central MD of 4 or so inches, half that in S MD. This is not my forecast! I'm just letting you know what the models indicate. The models are predicting an Alberta clipper set up interacting with a coastal storm.
I will not, until later in the weekend, speak of my forecasted totals or even if I believe it will snow and stick. It is way too early for that. Is it possible that it could snow next week? Yes. The question, though, should be if its probable. Here are some of my concerns for seeing accumulating snow next week:
1. The ground temp is too warm. The snow would need to fall at night and at a heavy rate.
2. The coastal storm will bring us an onshore wind flow (wind coming from the ocean), and with the ocean temps still warm, the air entering MD will be warmed before it bumps into the cold Alberta clipper air.
3. The timing of the clipper and the coastal storm (as well as the position of the storm) have to be perfect.
Right now, with the information at hand, I would say that a likely scenario is one wherein we experience mixed precip (rain and snow) with no accumulation for central and S MD. But that's just my hypothesis, not my forecast.
I will have future updates as information warrants. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.
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