Maryland snow Monday

By: cws6196 , 5:16 PM GMT on March 23, 2013

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Ok, y'all remember the March 6 fiasco of a weather forecast? Here we go again! This current potential system is very similar to that other system, and if we didn't get snow earlier in March, why would we get it now? That is the cynical part of me, because historically Maryland has received snow into late March. Many weather persons are now comparing this past winter with our winter in 1942. Both winter snow falls were almost exact (just over 4" total) and in 1942 there was a Palm Sunday historic snowfall dump of over 2 feet. Hmmmm......and tomorrow is Palm Sunday.... Will it happen again? Nope. Here are my pros and cons for our snow chance:

PRO's:

1. In comparison to March 6, much of the precip will be during the night so the March sun angle is not a factor.
2. The days preceding March 6 were quite warm, but lately we have had below normal and sub-freezing temps at night.
3. It happened in 1942.

CON's:

1. It's late March and the ground is warm.
2. We have another situation where there will be a phasing (joining) of two Low pressure systems. During the phase the precip drops off. For snow to stick in March we need a consistent heavy snowfall. We won't have this during the phase period.
3. The Bay water temp is quite warm, so any winds coming over the Bay will warm the atmosphere (as we saw March 6. The precip was right; the temps never cooled).

So, here is how I see it:

TIMING: For most the precip will start late afternoon on Sunday lasting through the morning of Monday.

ACCUMULATION: This depends on your location, and the exact location of the Low. For those around DC and SSW of Baltimore (west of I-95) you could see a few inches of accumulation overnight. As snow accumulates it will allow more to accumulate as the snow will lower the surface temps. Those due N and S of Baltimore most likely will see a mixed precip with "possibly" a dusting to an inch. Those to the E, enjoy the rain.

I will have another update later Sunday, but for the moment I feel confident in this forecast. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather updates and weather tidbits.

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About cws6196

I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.

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