It's over.... This has been a frustrating day. I am not so much upset that I blew the forecast, but more so because I love snow and am disappointed not to get any. Sorry to say this, but for us, winter is now over.
What happened? Good question. All the components were in place and the model data was consistent for days. Late last night the short term models upped the snow amount, and as a result so did the NWS (mine were always up so I didn't adjust). I will not blame the models (although, after this winter I do question the calibration since they were wrong more than they were right), I blame me. I am the forecaster, not the models. I pride myself on being cutting edge, not simply going with the flow. And I wasn't; I stuck with this storm longer than most did.
WHAT WAS CORRECT: The formation of the Low and it's path. The amount of precip was on target. Converting the rain I measured it would have equaled about 7-8 inches of snow. Many areas in MD and S PA had accumulating snows; lots!
WHAT WAS WRONG:
1. The temps! I warned about the temps, yet given the projected intensity of the Low and the amount of moisture, all indications were that the precip would overcome the temp issue. Wrong!
2. The Low! It is still just off the VA/MD coast! It was supposed to move!! ...sorry... The Low stalled most of the day which allowed for an easterly wind flow bringing us warmer temps most of the day. Once the Low started to move it moved too slowly for any significant cold air influence.
1. The temps overnight will drop below freezing, so moisture on the roads will freeze.
2. The wind gusts will remain strong as the Low slowly moves up the coast. Power outages and damage are still possible.
I appreciate all of your support and sticking with me through this forecast. In all my years I have never seen a forecast bust as big as this one. Even to the end all the factors were in place for this to be big. But, onward to Spring thunderstorms and tornadoes.
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