What a tricky Winter this continues to be. So much depends on the strength and path of the Low, and where the freezing temp line will finally fall. Right now I am watching snow potential for Wednesday and Saturday. I have been talking about the Wednesday snow for some time now, but the Saturday snow looks to be our strongest yet. And .... Potential for another snow event again next week. I will know more about the Wednesday snow later tomorrow, but here is how I see things.
TIMING: Wednesday late morning into Thursday morning.
PRECIP TYPE: The precip should start as rain, changing to all snow. Ice should not be a factor.
ACCUMULATION: This is tricky for a host of reasons, one of which is the length of the rain event. The models can predict precip amount, but doesn't distinquish between rain or snow. Right now it looks like S MD will be all rain, with the rain changing to snow north of Annapolis. Those south of Baltimore could see an inch, while those N and NE of Baltimore could have 3-5 inches.
PROBLEMS: The stronger the Low and the quicker the turn over to all snow will impact the snow amount. At this time I don't see the Low strengthening much, but I do wonder if it will be colder sooner than forecast. I think that sccenerio is likely. If so, the snow accumulations would be higher.
SATURDAY: Too early for details, but it appears this will be a coastal storm and an all snow event for Maryland. Preliminary model data shows well over 6 inches of accumulations, with more possible. If this verifies (models prove to be true), this will be a big one for us.
NEXT WEEK: Potential is there but let's stick with this week.
I will have another update late Tuesday. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather updates and tidbits.