Snow potential continues for Maryland

By: cws6196 , 5:05 AM GMT on February 07, 2013

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Ok, if you feel you are missing out on snow then head up to New England later Thursday, but don't plan on coming back anytime soon. It appears they are in for a large snowstorm/blizzard with some areas possibly seeing 3 feet of snow! Not for us though.

But, there is a concern I and the local NWS share. The set up for the New England storm is a phasing, or combining, of two Low pressure systems. One coming from the OH valley and one from the SE. As the two move toward and along the coast, respectively, the OH Low's energy will be absorbed and combined into the SE Low's energy, thus creating a massively large Low pressure system off the Atlantic coast. It is this newly combined Low that will be responsible for the snowy mess in New England.

So, what's the issue? In the imperfect science of forecasting, there are nuances of climatology we can predict fairly well, and there are nuances out of our realm of prediction. It's the latter that concerns me. "IF" the Lows phase early, or the timing and/or track of the Lows divert from the current forecast, we would potentially see a significant amount of snow. I am not saying it will happen. But, it is something of which we need to be aware. This is what the local NWS recently wrote to the area forecasters: "ALTHOUGH THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW WOULD BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR A DC SNOW STORM...PHASING IS FCST TO OCCUR TOO LATE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN." The odds of this happening are slim. Officially I am calling for mixed precip Friday morning to include snow and ice, with the possibility of an inch of snow accumulation near the MD/PA line Friday morning; maybe later Friday afternoon. The rest of MD will see rain on Friday. But be aware of a potential "surprise." This is how the local NWS ended their recent forecast discussion to the area forecasters: "REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM STILL NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY DUE ITS HIGH COMPLEXITY."

I am still watching the potential for a coastal storm for us mid-next week. I have been talking about this for a few days now, but it is still too far out for any details or guarantees it will actually happen. But worth keeping an eye on. If you want snow, don't yet fret. Maryland typically sees it's sahre of snow in February and early March. We still have plenty of time for more of the white stuff.

I will have another update later Thursday evening. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather updates and tidbits.

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About cws6196

I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.

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