Maryland snow chances this weekend

By: cws6196 , 5:33 PM GMT on February 02, 2013

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My apology for the delay in an update, but I have been looking over the data all morning and there seem to be a lot of disagreement between the different models and what the NWS is saying. So I've been waiting to try to get you the most current information. The next few days we will see snow chances, although none of them will give us large amounts of snow. But snow nonetheless.

The current radar shows snow over Baltimore but none of it is yet reaching the ground as unfortunately the atmosphere is too dry right now. But, the cloud cover and upper level precip will help to moisten the column of air significantly to allow the snow to reach the ground. It's just a matter of time. The snow on the radar currently in WV is moving this way and should be here in time for it all to reach the ground. The current water vapor satellite image is encouraging.

This is how I see things for today:

TIMING: Most of the precip will start after 3:00pm with the heaviest bands after 6:00pm.

ACCUMULATION: This is the tough part of the forecast since there are many inconsistencies in the model data vs. current conditions. But I am forecasting 1 - 2 inches for central MD & S MD with localized 3 inches possible. The NWS is saying less than an inch but I feel the column of air will moisten enough for more snow to fall. They feel it will stay dry.

NEXT: Our next snow chance is Sunday afternoon, probably like today's snowfall. We then have another opportunity Tuesday into Wednesday, but for me, the opportunity for some decent snow accumulation could happen around Valentine's Day. Too far out for details, but at the moment the conditions and data support a decent coastal storm mid that week. I will keep you posted.

There is a chance the NWS will eventually issue a winter weather advisory, but thus far nothing. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather updates and tidbits. I will keep my Weather Updated as needed: 443-470-9804

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About cws6196

I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.

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