I am reluctantly sticking with what I posted last night. The data today is hinting at a weaker storm event wherein the temps will be warm and the precip mainly rain. I have been posting my concerns about accumulating snow, and I still stand by them. That is what is making this forecast difficult. My "weather instinct" is telling me no accumulation and mainly rain (except PA), but there is a part of me that is doubting the instinct.
I waiver a bit since the precip should start early in the morning when it is cold. As the precip falls it will cool the column of air to the surface, and the cloud cover could keep the temps from rising. Any shift in the low's position or strengthening brings in more snow. So, since there are uncertainties, I am sticking with last night's post.
TIMING: Precip to begin early Tues morning around 5:00 or so, lasting until around 5:00pm or later.
TYPE: Precip should start as snow and will turn to mixed precip as the day warms. Temps will hover in upper 30s so any fluctuation will change the precip. Assuming the precip continues into the evening, the mixed precip will turn back to snow.
ACCUMULATION: Those south of Baltimore could see snow falling, but no accumulations. Baltimore City and immediate vicinity could have a dusting while those in N Balt co, west of Balt and closer to MD/PA line could see 1-2 inches. Depending on if my concerns pan out, these numbers could drop.
The morning commute could be rough with mixed precip, and the afternoon commute, if the precip continues, could be the same as the morning. The strength of the low will determine the length of the precip period, but I feel it will last into the later afternoon.
Follow me on Twitter (www.twitter.com/wxmanmd) for weather updates. If you are on Google+ search for my weather page and add it to your circle (Weather Man Maryland). I will update my Weather Phone as necessary. It is possible for a Winter Weather Advisory to be issued later Tuesday. If the NWS issues it I will let you know.