UPDATE Tues evening

By: cws6196 , 4:09 AM GMT on October 24, 2012

Share this Blog
0
+

Still watching things and still can't say anything definitively. There are still too many variables for anything specific, but now that TS Sandy has formed at least we have an idea of what to expect. It is now no longer complete hypothesis.

As I stated in my last update, the key here is timing. Another large factor will be the size and strength of Sandy. If she is torn apart after crossing the islands and doesn't strengthen, then she will be pushed out to sea by the westerly winds. If she maintains her strength and grows some, then she will be doing the pushing and the westerlies won't stand a chance.

The computer model data is not yet conclusive, although there is some trending of Sandy toward the coast (computers are assuming she will strengthen). In that scenario I see Maryland brushed by Sandy but not a direct hit. The impact could be felt later in the day Sunday through Monday evening with winds in excess of 40 mph and a good deal of rain. Snow could be possible west and north of Baltimore, although that could be a stretch. In this scenario NYC and north get hammered with a strong nor'easter.

At this time I am being conservative and saying that the beginning of the week most of us will experience some wind and rain, but nothing major. But, I do caution that any change in storm intensity, timing of the systems and actual track will drastically change my prediction. So, even though right now I feel we will be fine, I am still watching this scenario Another complication - the full moon on the 29th. With the full moon comes above normal high tides right at the same time Sandy comes up the coast. Again, timing and intensity are key variables.

I will keep you posted and should know more by Thursday. I want to see how Sandy fares north of the islands and to see the actual placement, at that time, of the arctic low. I should then have a better idea of the timing and intensity.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

1. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:46 AM GMT on October 25, 2012
cws6196 has created a new entry.

Viewing: 1 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

Top of Page

About cws6196

I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.

cws6196's Recent Photos

mammatus
May storm moving in
May storm moving in
Blizzard 2010

Personal Weather Stations

AKDOT Parks Highway @ Talkeetna Road MP 98.3
Talkeetna, AK
Elevation: 393 ft
Temperature: 26.0 °F
Dew Point: 24.0 °F
Humidity: 93%
Wind: 1.0 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 1.0 mph
Updated: 3:20 AM AKST on December 27, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations