I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.
By: cws6196 , 4:09 AM GMT on October 24, 2012
Still watching things and still can't say anything definitively. There are still too many variables for anything specific, but now that TS Sandy has formed at least we have an idea of what to expect. It is now no longer complete hypothesis.
As I stated in my last update, the key here is timing. Another large factor will be the size and strength of Sandy. If she is torn apart after crossing the islands and doesn't strengthen, then she will be pushed out to sea by the westerly winds. If she maintains her strength and grows some, then she will be doing the pushing and the westerlies won't stand a chance.
The computer model data is not yet conclusive, although there is some trending of Sandy toward the coast (computers are assuming she will strengthen). In that scenario I see Maryland brushed by Sandy but not a direct hit. The impact could be felt later in the day Sunday through Monday evening with winds in excess of 40 mph and a good deal of rain. Snow could be possible west and north of Baltimore, although that could be a stretch. In this scenario NYC and north get hammered with a strong nor'easter.
At this time I am being conservative and saying that the beginning of the week most of us will experience some wind and rain, but nothing major. But, I do caution that any change in storm intensity, timing of the systems and actual track will drastically change my prediction. So, even though right now I feel we will be fine, I am still watching this scenario Another complication - the full moon on the 29th. With the full moon comes above normal high tides right at the same time Sandy comes up the coast. Again, timing and intensity are key variables.
I will keep you posted and should know more by Thursday. I want to see how Sandy fares north of the islands and to see the actual placement, at that time, of the arctic low. I should then have a better idea of the timing and intensity.
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