I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.
By: cws6196 , 2:06 PM GMT on October 18, 2012
It appears our relatively quiet weather pattern may be changing later this evening. An upper level low pressure system currently in the mid-west is moving east pushing ahead of it a strong cold front. The front should be in our area in the overnight hours. Ahead of the front is where the storms will develop. Given the strength of the low, the intensity of the cold front and the heating of today (along with high humidity levels) we could see some strong storms develop. The Storm Prediction Center has given our area a 2% chance for tornadoes to form out of these storms. All thunderstorms should be taken seriously and with caution, but this time of the year we do not have the same dynamics in place to produce extremely strong, damaging storms. If this scenario were occurring in July or August I would have sounded the alarm a few days ago. I am not necessarily downplaying this event; take it seriously, but also understand this is not a widespread situation.
TIMING: After 6:00pm lasting most of the evening. Strong storms will be scattered.
THREATS: Those who experience strong storms could also have damaging winds. I don't foresee tornado formation, but the SPC has us in a 2% chance.
I will keep you updated if watches/warnings are issued. These storms should be scattered so warnings would be localized. Keep an eye on the sky. Follow me on Twitter (www.twitter.com/wxmanmd) and my Weather Phone will be updated as needed (443-470-9804).
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