rationale

By: cws6196 , 2:07 PM GMT on August 11, 2012

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I so hate when a forecast, mine or others, goes bust. But, alas, it does happen. Just once again proves who is and who is not in control. Obviously our climate is bigger than ourselves and more complicated than we all yet understand. Everyone I know forecasted strong storms for yesterday including the Storm Prediction Center in OK. To be honest, I am more upset not that I was wrong, but because we need the rain. Some people's livelihood depends on the the rain falling. But, on a lighter side, I am reminded of a line from that wonderful song "I'm a Weatherman" which goes (to a rap beat) "I'm wrong half the time and still have a job!" (I have the song if you want me to send it to you).

WHAT HAPPENED: From what I can gather, three main things went wrong: 1. The cold front moved much slower and so did not enter the humid airmass in time to produce rain/storms; 2. The cloud cover had a greater impact than we figured on keeping the airmass stable; 3. Our new word, "subsistence". The morning rain took away the energy and instability needed for storms. Therefore, with the rain taking away the energy, and the clouds not allowing the sun to create more instability, coupled with the delay in the arrival of the cold front, you end up with what we had. For most of us that was nothing.

TODAY: The cold front is now in western MD moving east. As it moves it "could" still produce scattered rain and light thunderstorms through this afternoon. Any rain or storms will be localized and scattered. Nothing severe.

The rest of the weekend looks to be nice and a bit cooler. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for updates and weather tidbits.

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About cws6196

I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.

Personal Weather Stations

AKDOT Parks Highway @ Talkeetna Road MP 98.3
Talkeetna, AK
Elevation: 393 ft
Temperature: 47.0 °F
Dew Point: 23.0 °F
Humidity: 37%
Wind: 2.0 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 7.0 mph
Updated: 8:21 PM AKDT on April 16, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations