We need the rain, so today's and tomorrow's showers are a good sign. Some of the rain we see could be quite heavy at times, and there is a slight chance for scattered, non-severe, thunderstorms.
Below is an article from the Baltimore Sun talking about a new forecast model from NOAA. This new model should help in what is termed "now-casting", distinct from forecasting, the former focuses on current conditions what may happen in another hour from that time. This is vital information especially concerning strong thunderstorms which could produce damaging hail, damaging wind or tornadoes.
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By Scott Dance
9:43 a.m. EDT, May 14, 2012
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration earlier this month launched a more accurate weather forecast model it says improves predictions of quickly developing severe weather, and it was developed in part in Maryland.
The model is called “Rapid Refresh” and was developed at NOAA centers in Camp Springs and Boulder, Colo.
Like its predecessor, it will adjust forecasts hourly based on changing conditions, but it will use a more advanced weather prediction model that has shown to more accurately pinpoint areas of severe weather.