Central MD Weather Conditions

UPDATE snow in Maryland beginning of March

By: cws6196, 4:31 AM GMT on February 28, 2014

This is a challenging forecast for many reasons, but the most challenging is figuring out the exact path of the Low. Where the Low travels and exits into the Atlantic will determine what precip type we see and for how long. Differing models have different scenarios, although they seem to be coming in a bit colder and further south with the Low then previous data runs. If this trend continues we will see more snow for a longer period of time. We will have enough moisture in this storm to provide us with sizable accumulations, but the issue is how much of the snow accumulation is taken up by the rain and ice. The timing of this storm's impact on us starts Sunday evening and ends Tuesday.

Since a Low spins counter clockwise, as it progresses east, just to the south of us, it will spin in warm air and Gulf moisture, followed by warm air and Atlantic moisture; and as it enters the Atlantic and moves to the north it will spin in Atlantic moisture and cold air. This is why I see a transition from rain to ice to snow; but who sees what and for how long is determined by the path of the Low. Once the storm comes ashore in CA the models will be able to get a handle on it, and I will be able to track the actual Low across the country, not relying solely on models.

As I see it, we all will have snow, but S MD may have less snow and more ice compared to central and N MD who will see more snow over less ice. It's too early for accumulations, but we could be seeing over 5 inches of snow and a thick coating of ice. There's also a possibility of another snow storm later in the week. Too early for details yet on that one.

I will have another update later Friday. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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Wednesday snow in Maryland

By: cws6196, 9:59 PM GMT on February 25, 2014

The snow today was a nice surprise! I knew of the potential but didnt say anything as it was to be short-lived and lite ... ooops. The system today well over performed and I am thinking the same for tomorrow. My detailed forecast is below, and actually its the same one I posted earlier, I am simply upping my accumulation amounts. This is a similar system to what came through today, but this time it will be at night without the sun to warm the pavement.

I am still looking at a slight chance for snow Saturday, and again the beginning of the week. Thats the one which interests me. And actually, now the NWS is picking up on it, too. Just remember, you heard it here first!

Here's my Wednesday forecast, adjusted for increased snowfall:

TIMING: After midnight into the late morning Wednesday, ending around noon. The heaviest precip will occur during the morning commute.

PRECIP TYPE: Snow

ACCUMULATION: Most of us will see 1-2+ while those S of Baltimore and into S MD could see more.

CONCERNS: The snow will be a wet snow, and any water on the roadway will freeze over night, so the wt snow on the ice will make the roads slippery.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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Snow chances this week in Maryland

By: cws6196, 8:48 PM GMT on February 24, 2014

Timing is everything when it comes to winter weather in Maryland. For us to have big snows we need many components to come to together at the same time; and if they don't, we get nothing, such as this morning. I say this because this week we have snow chances, but they are dependent on timing. Last night we missed out on the snow not because the condtions weren't right, but because the cold air came in as the precip left. The timing was off. So it goes this week. Currently I am watching Wednesday morning, Saturday, and Sunday into Tuesday for snow potential. But all of this could bust if the timing is off. Right now I will discuss Wednesday, leaving the end of the week's discussion as we get closer.

Tuesday afternoon into the evening a cold front from Canada moves into the area, later forming a coastal Low off of NC. The Low will track up the coast, but it appears that it won't strengthen until it is too far off the coast to give us a good amount of snow. But, it will be close enough to interact with the cold air in place giving us the potential for snow. Right now I am seeing an inch or so of snow Wednesday morning, primarily S of Baltimore and into S MD. Depending on the timing and track of the Low we could have more snow, but I'm thinking the timing willl be off for us.

Late tonight or Tuesday morning I will have a detailed forecast. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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Winter is not yet done with Maryland

By: cws6196, 4:26 PM GMT on February 23, 2014

Enjoy today while it is still warm for a cold front will be moving through our area later tonight to give us some wintry precip (details below). I am looking at chances for snow mid week and the end of next weekend. This is a difficult time to forecast winter weather as the seasons are beginning to shift. As the shift happens the models don't always catch on quickly, and with the change comes fluctuating temps, different sun angle, and longer periods of sunlight as the days continue to lengthen. I'm not saying that we won't see any more snow or possibly snow storms, just that it is becoming more difficult for them to happen. Long range climatology indicates March will be a cold month, so we shall see what that means for us who love snow. Here is my thought on the snow tonight:

TIMING: Precip will start late evening and last into the early morning hours of Monday.

PRECIP TYPE: For those N of Baltimore it could start as rain but will change to all snow. Those S of Baltimore will see all rain.

ACCUMULATIONS: Not much. Those who do see snow will have a dusting, although closer to the MD/PA line could see an inch or so.

I will have another update as needed on this event, and tomorrow will update on the mid week event. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather updates and tidbits.

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UPDATE Fri storms

By: cws6196, 7:46 PM GMT on February 20, 2014

The storms effecting the midwest today are moving in our direction and will effect our region Friday morning. the latest map from the Storm Prediction Center placing our area in a 5% to 15% proabablity for severe weather. As I mentioned in my previous post, the combination of warm temps and the intrusion of a cold front, create the conditions for severe weather. If this were later in Spring I would be more concerned by this setup, but since we are still in Winter we do not have the depth of warm air to work with.

I am not concerned with widespread flooding as the rain amount should be under half an inch, but localized flooding is probable in areas where drains are blocked. Please take a moment and clear drains around your house and out in the street.

TIMING: We should see some rain later this eveing into Friday morning. The storm activity will occur between 7:00am and 1:00pm.

THREATS: Damaging wind gusts are the main threat. Lightning is probable and the threat of tornadoes minimal.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED: All of Maryland will be impacted but with the bulk of the storms E of Baltimore and in S MD.

I expect advisories or watches to be posted by the NWS and I will let you know when that happens. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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Friday storms in Maryland

By: cws6196, 4:35 AM GMT on February 20, 2014

The above normal temps will continue to increase through Friday when a cold front moves through the area. The arrival of the cold front will not only bring down our temps, but will create the conditions for some severe weather. Working to our advantage is that the warm air is not as warm as it would be in the spring or summer, so the severity of the storms on Friday may be somewhat dampened, but nonetheless still a concern and dangerous.

As of now the main threats are damaging wind and lightning. The bulk of the severe weather will happen in E Baltimore Co and S MD, although all of central MD has the potential for storms. The storms will start Friday morning after the commute time and last until around noon or so.

Once the cold front moves through our temps will steadily decrease from Sunday through the beginning of March. In the long range we do have some snow possibilities, but that is too far away for me to comment further on. I am not a fan of long-range forecasting as there are too many variables for any sense of accuracy; and I would rather wait a bit for the sake of accuracy rather than talk about every possibility showing up on the computers. So, for now all I will say is that we are not done with snow just yet.

I will have another update later Thursday. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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unsettled weather in Maryland

By: cws6196, 3:25 AM GMT on February 19, 2014

These next two weeks are unsettled times for the weather. There is a freezing rain advisory issued for areas N of Baltimore as freezing rain is expected during the morning commute. The rest of the area will have rain in the morning, causing some ponding on the roads. As the week progresses the temps will continue to rise, allowing for the snow pack to melt. I am concerned about localized flooding in those areas which received the most snow. Not only will the snow near you melt, runoff from the melting snow to the N will add to possible flooding of rivers and tributaries.

This Friday we have the potential for severe weather; heavy rain and gusting damaging winds. I will have more details in another day or so, but be aware of this potential. Then, next week our temps again drop as we head into March, with a hint at snow mid next week. But that hint of snow is way too far away for me to make comment on.

News: I have created a FB weather page to localize my forecasts and to remove my forecasts from my personal FB page. I am working on this with a forecaster from Harford Co who has a local FB page. Please "like" my page: https://www.facebook.com/baltimorecountyweatherwat ch I will continue to provide this service as I always have; the FB page is an additional outlet. Also, follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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UPDATE Mon morning re snow tonight

By: cws6196, 3:14 PM GMT on February 17, 2014

This is becoming an interesting system. Thus far this winter the models have trended to show less snow than we have received, and if you recall, last week I insisted on higher amounts than what the models and NWS was saying, and we see how that turned out! So, I am again going a bit high on the amounts today. This is not "wishcasting", but looking at the data I am supported, if the variables come into alignment as I believe they will. The technical portion and my concerns are detailed below.

PRECIP TYPE: Snow for all except southren S MD which will see a mix of sleet and snow.

ACCUMULATION: For those N and W of Baltimore I see 2 - 4" possible; Baltimore and S metro area 1 - 3"; S MD 1 - 2" except the southern portion with only a dusting. There is potential for these amounts to go higher. See my discussion below.

TIMING: Late this evening through 7:00am Tuesday or so. The system is coming from the W and S, so those areas will have precip sooner. The morning commute will be disrupted.

DISCUSSION: A Low pressure system is moving to our N while a High pressure is to our NE. A resultant Low will form off the coast and move NNE. Typically this is a set up for us to have a lot of snow (recall last week), but this time the Low from the W looks to move too far to the N and is coming in fast. The speed is not allowing the coastal Low to strengthen and stick around long enough to bring us a decent snowfall. BUT ... if the Low to the W shifts further S we will see more snow, especially for those in S MD. If the system slows, the coastal Low will have more time to bring us heavier snow amounts. My forecast is based on what I feel the position of the Low will be as well as its speed. Any slight fluctuation will have the potential to bring us more snow.

I will have another update later tonight. I would not be surprised to see Winter advisories posted from the NWS later this afternoon. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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Snow in Maryland Mon-Tues

By: cws6196, 12:28 AM GMT on February 17, 2014

It looks like more snow is on the way for us Monday night into Tuesday morning, most probably affecting the morning commute Tuesday. Right now I see it as a minor event of possibly 2-4 inches for N MD, 1-2 for the Baltimore metro and 1 inch for S of Baltimore. S MD mostl likely will have mixed precip of sleet and snow. After this event we will have a warming trend for the rest of the week, then its back to the cold temps for the last week of Feb.

I will have a detailed update Monday morning when I have the latest data to evaluate. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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clipper tonight in Maryland

By: cws6196, 3:06 PM GMT on February 14, 2014

Ready for more snow? What a storm that was yesterday! I posted often on Twitter that I felt the storm had surprises in it, and I always felt it would overperform (the "++" in my forecast totals were well exceeded), but not only was there snow, there was widespread thundersnow and hail. We arent done yet. Tonight a clipper from the west will move across the area. Typically these clippers are moisture starved and don't produce much for us, but this one is a bit stronger and so will most likely bring us another nice round of snow.

The weekend will be quite cold, but for those not happy with this weather pattern will be pleased to know a warm up occurs later in the week, before once again we experience a cold period.

TIMING: The snow should start around or after midnight and last through the early part of Saturday.

PRECIP TYPE: Should be all snow for most but for southern S MD which could have a mix of rain/snow.

ACCUMULATION: Those north of Baltimore could see 2-4+ inches while the city of Baltimore and immediately south could see 1-3+ while most of S MD will have an inch or so.

CONCERNS: Today's temps will rise above freezing with some melting. Any water will refreeze tonight and into the weekend.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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UPDATE Thurs late morning

By: cws6196, 4:54 PM GMT on February 13, 2014

Enjoying the snow? Thus far my forecast has verified and we are now in the lull I previously mentioned would happen. The Low is immediately to our east causing precip to fall around us, leaving us in the dry slot. As the Low moves to the NNE the precip will follow and so fill in our area once again. Another Low moving up the coast will help to aid in the precip later this afternoon. This is NOT yet over! The NWS has upped their projected totals to what I have have been saying since Tuesday. Their totals are valid through Friday morning and taking into account the new snow tonight. Warnings and advisories are in effect for tonight through Friday morning (see below).

TIMING: Snow will return to the area after 4:00pm and last through the early morning hours of Friday.

ACCUMULATION: Another 2 - 4 inches expected, even in S MD. This will bring totals in S MD to around 6" or so (not counting what compacted).

PRECIP TYPE: The precip will be all snow.

WIND: The new threat is strong gusty winds from the N. This will cause low wind chills and lower the air temp allowing for more snow.

NEXT: There is a clipper moving through our area late Friday which could give us another few inches of snow.

Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for frequent storm updates.

MDZ003>007-009>011-VAZ028-030-031-042-052-053-055 -501-502-
WVZ051>053-140030-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-140214T1000Z/
WA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-FREDERICK VA-WARREN-CLARKE-
LOUDOUN-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-STAFFORD-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.HAGERSTOWN.FREDERICK.WESTMINSTER.
GAITHERSBURG.COLUMBIA.BALTIMORE.WINCHESTER.FRONT ROYAL.
LEESBURG.MANASSAS.MANASSAS PARK.FAIRFAX.WARRENTON.
MARTINSBURG.CHARLES TOWN
1120 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

.WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE.HEAVY SNOW & LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

* ACCUMULATIONS.LESS THAN ONE-TENTH INCH OF ICE. AN ADDITIONAL
2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY & TONIGHT. STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL OF
15 TO 24 INCHES.WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR
N. SUBURBS OF WA DC & BALTIMORE.

* TIMING.SNOW RATES WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SO. TO NORTH
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW.SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. STEADIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON & THIS EVENING. A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

* TEMPS.RISING INTO THE LWR & MIDDLE 30S.

* WINDS.NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

* IMPACTS.ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED & SLIPPERY. TRAVEL WILL
BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. HEAVY WET SNOW COULD LEAD TO POWER
OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.

SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS.
ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL.KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT. FOOD.& WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY.

&&

MDZ017-018-140030-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0011.140213T2200Z-140214T0600Z/
ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF.ST MARYS CITY
1120 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014

.WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE.SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS.ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON & EVENING OF 2 TO 3 INCHES.

* TIMING.SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME.

* TEMPS.TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LWR AND
MIDDLE 30S THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

* WINDS.NORTH 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS.ANY WET OR SLUSHY ROADS TODAY WILL BECOME SNOW
COVERED & SLIPPERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON & TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS & LIMITED VISIBILITIES.& USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

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UPDATE Thurs morning

By: cws6196, 6:26 AM GMT on February 13, 2014

The snow is falling and began falling right on schedule according to my forecast. I don't have much of an update, but here are a few points:

1. There could be a period of sleet and/or rain, but should be short-lived. Snow will move in again.
2. As I write this the Low is strengthening which means it will pull in more cold air and moisture.
3. As the Low moves up the coast there may be a lull in the action around midday, but in the late afternoon we could see snow again from the back flow of the Low.

I am looking at the possibility of us seeing more snow Friday evening as a clipper moves through. More on that later.

As a reminder, here is my forecast I posted Tuesday morning and which I view as still valid:

TIMING: Wednesday after 6:00pm into late Thursday. Since the storm is out of the south, S MD will have the snow before N MD.

PRECIP: It should start as all snow, changing to a period of sleet, than changing back to all snow. The track of the low will determine the precip type.

ACCUMULATION: I see S MD with 4-6+ (8?) inches and the Baltimore region 8-10++ inches with a chance for near a foot (depending on location). The amount of rain and sleet will lower the total snow accumulation, so my numbers could go up if there is a lack of mixed precip.

I will have another update as needed. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for frequent storm updates.

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UPDATE Wed afternoon

By: cws6196, 7:01 PM GMT on February 12, 2014

The precip, as snow, is already in S VA making its way toward Maryland. I am confident in my previous forecast and am being more aggressive with my accumulation totals than is the NWS. Looking at the data as well as the current situation, I see less mixing of rain/sleet and more snow. The duration of the mix will influence the overall totals. Why do I see a snowier solution?

1. The current temps are below freezing, and as it snows it will cool the air, making it harder for the influence of warm air. The rate of snow will help; if it starts off heavy we will see totals increase, but if it starts off slow with small snowflakes, then maybe the NWS is right.
2. The water temps around MD are below zero with some ice. This will influence the surface temp.
3. The bulk of the snow will fall over night, prior to any mixing, so even if there is mixed precip it will be after the bulk has accumulated. Snow will return after the mixing.

TIMING: Wednesday after 6:00pm into late Thursday. Since the storm is out of the south, S MD will have the snow before N MD.

PRECIP: It should start as all snow, changing to a period of sleet, than changing back to all snow. The track of the low will determine the precip type.

ACCUMULATION: I see S MD with 4-6+ (8?) inches and the Baltimore region 8-10++ inches with a chance for near a foot (depending on location). The amount of rain and sleet will lower the total snow accumulation, so my numbers could go up if there is a lack of mixed precip.

I will have another update as needed. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for storm updates.

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UPDATE Wed early morning

By: cws6196, 5:42 AM GMT on February 12, 2014

The more I studied the data the more I became convinced that my forecast posted Tuesday is still valid. My totals are a bit different from those of the NWS, but they are seeing more mixing of rain and sleet while I see less mixing. So, here is what I wrote earlier and what I stand by.

There is still one big variable; the position of the Low. Any shift, even a mere 50 mile shift, will change everything drastically. It could take a forcast of a foot of snow and turn it to all rain. So knowing that track is crucial. Here are my thoughts, but as I see the Low track up the coast I will revise as necessary, but I am confident in this forecast.

TIMING: Wednesday late aftenoon into late Thursday. Since the storm is out of the south, S MD will have the snow before N MD.

PRECIP: It should start as all snow, changing to a period of rain, mix and/or sleet, than changing back to all snow. The track of the low will determine the precip type.

ACCUMULATION: This is preliminary, but I see S MD with 6-8 inches and the Baltimore region with near a foot (depending on location). The amount of rain and sleet will lower the total snow accumulation, so my numbers could go up if there is a lack of mixed precip.

I will have another update later Wednesday and will adjust as needed. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for frequent storm updates.

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UPDATE Tues early morning

By: cws6196, 6:26 AM GMT on February 11, 2014

Well, time to get the shovel and the boots! The plan and forecat is coming into focus, but there is still one big variable; the position of the Low. Any shift, even a mere 50 mile shift, will change everything drastically. It could take a forcast of a foot of snow and turn it to all rain. So knowing that track is crucial. Here are my thoughts, but as I see the Low track up the coast I will revise as necessary, but I am confident in this forecast.

TIMING: Wednesday late aftenoon into late Thursday. Since the storm is out of the south, S MD will have the snow before N MD.

PRECIP: It should start as all snow, changing to a period of rain, mix and/or sleet, than changing back to all snow. The track of the low will determine the precip type.

ACCUMULATION: This is preliminary, but I see S MD with 6-8 inches and the Baltimore region with near a foot (depending on location). The further W and NW from Baltimore the less snow, so those just over the MD/PA line may not see as much as will central MD. The amount of rain and sleet will lower the total snow accumulation, so my numbers could go up if there is a lack of mixed precip.

I will have another update Tuesday and will adjust as needed. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for frequent storm updates.

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UPDATE Mon afternoon

By: cws6196, 7:15 PM GMT on February 10, 2014

The model data is coming to some consensus and it means more snow for Maryland. I'm not yet ready to talk amounts, but the potential now exists for a good amount of accumulation Wed evening into Thurs. Modest estimates would be well over 6 inches from S MD up through N MD. The main reason I'm waiting on posting amounts is that I want to see the actual path of the Low off the coast, not just the projected path. The path makes all the difference. A mere 50 mile shift to the west means all rain for us, while a shift to the east could mean nothing at all. At this time the projections are placing the low exactly where we want it for snow. So I want to see what is really going to happen with the low. But, I would make plans for receiving a lot of snow.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and storm updates.

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midweek snow storm in Maryland

By: cws6196, 5:14 AM GMT on February 10, 2014

There is a lot of talk now about snow midweek. I mentioned this possibility a few days ago, and I still see it as possible. It's still early for details, plus the model data is not yet in agreement with each other. Later Monday I should have a better idea since I can then start to watch the low pressure system to see the path it is taking.

The issue is a possible nor'easter effecting us Wednesday into Thursday. The trick with a nor'easter is the placement in relation to the coast. The further offshore, the more snow we will see; the closer to land the more chance for either mixed precip or all rain; too far off the coast and we get nothing. At this time I don't think we will get nothing from the system, but the question is what and how much. The model data will be in better agreement by late Monday into Tuesday, and I will be able to compare the actual placement of the low to where the models said it should be to gain a better understanding of what data to believe. I will not start talking accumulation until Tuesday. But, if we do have an all snow event it could be significant. Any mix in the precip cuts down on the snow accumulation.

I will have another update later Monday. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and midweek updates.

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UPDATE Sat afternoon re Maryland snow

By: cws6196, 11:21 PM GMT on February 08, 2014

As I figured, the snow that did fall today was light in most areas, and non-existent in other regions. Today's snow was a typical clipper event, and clippers are usually moisture starved therefore, not enough moisture to overcome a dry atmosphere (as we had today). The rest of the weekend looks more promising as the systems moving through have more moisture.

TIMING: Snow on Sunday will be an afternoon into evening event, probably after 2:00 for most. I'm still looking at a Monday morning event, but more on that tomorrow.

PRECIP TYPE: Most of the precip will be snow, although S MD could see some rain mixed in at times.

ACCUMULATION: Most areas on Sunday should see about an inch while those in N MD and near the MD/PA line could see a couple inches.

I will have another update on Sunday and at that time talk about the possible Monday morning snow as well as the midweek (Wed to Thurs) snow storm potential. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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UPDATE Fri afternoon

By: cws6196, 8:19 PM GMT on February 07, 2014

Looking at the latest data I still feel that what I previously posted is true. Although, I do see some strengthening in the southern Low pressure system and will keep an eye on that. This weekend we will have a series of disturbances move through the area with the last disturbance affecting the Monday morning commute time.

TIMING: Snow will occur on and off from Saturday afternoon through Monday morning.

PRECIP: Mainly snow, although some rain is possible at times.

ACCUMULATION: Most of us will see a dusting with scattered locales seeing an inch or so. I am concerned of the strengthening Low; if the low continues to strengthen we could see higher accumulation.

The next system I am watching is midweek, around Tuesday into Thursday. More on that later. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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UPDATE Fri morning re weekend snow

By: cws6196, 7:23 AM GMT on February 07, 2014

I still see snow for us this weekend but not a blizzard some people were talking about (this is why I dont do long-range forecasts).  I will have a detailed update later today, but for now I am looking at us seeing a dusting to potentially a couple inches.  My hesitation is that we dont have the cold artic air in place, and we are potentially dealing with two low pressure systems  interacting to give us the snow.  The timing and intensity of both of those systems willl make all the difference.  So I will have more details later so I can be as accurate as possible.  Also, I am watching another snow chance for us mid week, Wednesday into Thursday.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather updates and tidbits.

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UPDATE snow in Maryland this weekend

By: cws6196, 5:19 AM GMT on February 06, 2014

I still don't have any specific details, but at this time I am still seeing a snow event for us this weekend. I'm not talking accumulation totals yet, but I also don't see this as a crippling blizzard either. As it stands there could be light snow Saturday as a clipper moves through, then on Sunday the main storm gears up. There is still a lot of uncertainty, but it appears that we will have a developing coastal Low and an inland Low (trough) which need to phase (combine) to form a larger snow storm. But, even if this verifies there are many things that can go wrong, namely timing. If the two lows don't phase we won't have enough energy for a lot of snow; and there is always the option for the coastal low to move too far out to sea to effect us. Also, even if the phasing occurs at the right time, depending on the exact location of the phase we could be stuck in the dry slot in between the two systems. So, many variables to be worked out before I can say anything for certain.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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snow in Maryland this weekend

By: cws6196, 6:22 PM GMT on February 05, 2014

This has been a wild few days of weather! The next couple days will be quiet, getting us ready for the weekend. I am reviewing the data for the weekend, and right now we are still too far away from the event for any details. The data is not consistent on specifics, although I do believe we will see snow this weekend. The unknowns thus far are how much and for whom. The next couple days the data should come together, and once the Low forms I will have a much better idea as I will be able to track the low and not just rely on computer data.

So for now just know there is a high probability of us having snow this weekend, possibly into Monday. I will have another update either late tonight or tomorrow. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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UPDATE on Wed ice

By: cws6196, 2:13 AM GMT on February 04, 2014

The NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday  evening into Wednesday afternoon for central and N MD for ice accumulation. Freezing rain will start in the evening Tuesday lasting into Wednesday. Freezing rain is caused by a warm upper layer of air with a cold layer at the surface. So the precipitation falls as rain but freezes on contact. A layer of ice, thicker the further north you go from Baltimore, will form on all surfaces. 

I am also watching the potential for a significant snow event this weekend. More details later in the week. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates. 

MDZ007-009>011-VAZ027-029>031-040-042-501-040945-
/O.EXA.KLWX.WS.A.0003.140205T0000Z-140205T1800Z/
HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-SHENANDOAH-PAGE-
WARREN-CLARKE-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.GAITHERSBURG.COLUMBIA.BALTIMORE.
FRONT ROYAL.WA.LEESBURG.WARRENTON
841 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014

.WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUES EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN BALTIMORE MD/WA HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH.WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE.SLEET & FREEZING RAIN

* ACCUMULATIONS.A COATING TO ONE INCH OF SLEET ACCUMULATION.
 POTENTIAL FOR A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF ICE ACCUMULATION FROM
 FREEZING RAIN.

* TIMING.FREEZING RAIN & SLEET WILL BEGIN TUES EVENING.
 PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY
 NIGHT & IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING.
 PRECIPITATION WILL END WED AFTERNOON.

* TEMPS.UPPER 20S TUES EVENING RISING INTO THE LWR
 & MIDDLE 30S LATE TUES NIGHT & WED MORNING.
 TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING WED AFTERNOON.

* WINDS.NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS.UNTREATED ROADS & SIDEWALKS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY
 FROM ICE. TRAVEL MAY BE DANGEROUS DURING THIS TIME.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

MDZ003>006-501-502-VAZ028-WVZ050>053-055-501>504- 040945-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0003.140205T0000Z-140205T1800Z/
WA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CNTL & EASTERN ALLEGANY-
FREDERICK VA-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.HAGERSTOWN.FREDERICK.WESTMINSTER.
FROSTBURG.CUMBERLAND.WINCHESTER.MARTINSBURG.
CHARLES TOWN.MOOREFIELD.BAYARD.MOUNT STORM.PETERSBURG.
ELK GARDEN.KEYSER.FORT ASHBY
841 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014

.WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUES EVENING
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE.SNOW.SLEET & FREEZING RAIN

* ACCUMULATIONS.1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW & SLEET. POTENTIAL FOR A
 QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN.

* TIMING.SNOW & SLEET WILL BEGIN TUES NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
 WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT TUES & CONTINUE
 THROUGH WED MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL END WEDNESDAY
 AFTERNOON.

* TEMPS.LWR TO MIDDLE 20S TUES EVENING SLOWLY RISING
 INTO THE UPPER 20S & LWR 30S LATE TUES NIGHT THROUGH
 WED MORNING. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
 WED AFTERNOON.

* WINDS.NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS.UNTREATED ROADS & SIDEWALKS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY
 FROM ICE. TRAVEL MAY BE DANGEROUS DURING THIS TIME.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW.SLEET.OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

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Wed ice storm in Maryland

By: cws6196, 9:48 PM GMT on February 03, 2014

Well, today's storm is behind us; not an easy day to forecast. From what I've heard most saw snow as I predicted, but the timing was off due to the front stalling overnight. The other complicating issue was the high temps on Sunday. It appears S PA was the winner with 9 inches of wet snow!

Looking ahead we have an ice situation for Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, primarily for those areas that received snow today. I'm not talking about the snow melting and freezing, I'm talking about an ice storm with freezing rain and accumulating ice.

I am also watching a possible snow storm this weekend for us, including S MD. Too early for details, but know it its probable.

I will have another update late tonight. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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Snow Monday in Maryland

By: cws6196, 5:05 PM GMT on February 02, 2014

Finally, here is my update on the snow potential for Monday. I have waited as long as I could, looking at all the data at my disposal. This is not an easy forecast for a number of reasons (explained below), so I waited to ensure I have this as accurate as possible for all of you.

TIMING: Rain will start later this evening, changing to snow W and N of Baltimore around 6:00am in the W, a bit later in the N. Changing to mixed precip in S MD late morning, early afternoon.

PRECIP: Will start as rain and transition to snow W and N of Baltimore. Mixed precip S of Baltimore to mainly rain in S MD.

ACCUMULATIONS: W and N of Baltimore could see 2-6 inches or even a bit more the further N you are. Just S of Baltimore could see an inch or two, and the further S you go the less snow there is. The speed of the approaching cold front will dictate snow amount as well as the length of the period of rain fall.

PROBLEMS: This forecast is tricky because it depends on temps to drop and a fast approaching cold front. There is enough moisture, that's not the issue. If we had the cold air of last week I'd say we all would be in for a foot or so of snow, but with the warm temps today that won't happen. The ice on the Bay will help with cooling the air, but if the front is too slow to arrive everyone will see rain and only an inch or so of snow. If the front moves in quick then more snow will accumulate for more people. See the problem? Since those N & W will be colder with precip falling in the early morning hours, snow is most likely. Those in S MD will have a later change over occurring when the sun is out, therefore less accumulation since the rain will be falling over a longer period of time.

BUST? Could this forecast totally bust? Yes! If the cold air does not move in as expected more people will see longer periods of rain and so less snow. Or, if the cold air moves in faster there will be a longer period of snow and so more accumulation.

I will have another update late today when I will be able to better determine the speed of the approaching cold front. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and storm updates.

update Sunday evening
I have decided to stick with my forecast as stated above.

Updated: 5:01 AM GMT on February 03, 2014

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UPDATE on Mon snow in Maryland

By: cws6196, 11:26 PM GMT on February 01, 2014

Monday's forecast is not easy. Our recent snow events have been easy since the cold air was in place and all precip was snow. But, in this event the cold air is moving in to over take the current warm air. How quickly the air cools, and how far south the cold air moves will determine who gets snow and how much. The precip will start as all rain, transitioning to all snow later in the event. Thus the difficulty of forecasting accumulation because the rain will take away the first few inches of accumlated snow. What happens Monday will influence the storm on Wednesday, and that event will influence the weekend's weather. More on that later.

The local NWS thinks up to 5 inches for those N and W of Baltimore while the rest of us will see rain. I'm not yet convinced of that assessment. The models are still all over the place, and I want to see the real temps tomorrow. I'm not yet ready to say S MD is out of this. I'm not going to give my complete forecast until later Sunday morning. But know that for all of us, Monday's rush hour will be a mess due to a transitioning precip type.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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About cws6196

I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.

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AKDOT Parks Highway @ Talkeetna Road MP 98.3
Talkeetna, AK
Elevation: 393 ft
Temperature: 45.0 °F
Dew Point: 44.0 °F
Humidity: 93%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 1.0 mph
Updated: 7:50 AM AKDT on August 21, 2014

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