Central MD Weather Conditions

winter weather in Maryland next week

By: cws6196, 11:07 PM GMT on January 30, 2014

Fri evening update

I'll have a detailed forecast update later this weekend after I review the data, but, for the moment, I wanted to alert you to the possibility of snow and freezing rain Monday and Tuesday. What is making this forecast tricky is that we are wedged between cold air to the north and warm moist air to the south. The exact position of each piece of air makes a huge difference to the forecast and precip type. This will come down to the wire.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

original post

Today is the last of our very frigid days for a week or so. It will be cold and below freezing next week, but not the single digits we have experienced. This weekend will be quite warm in comparison to what we have experienced. Who would have thought 40s and low 50s would feel warm?

Next week's weather will be a roller coaster of temps and precip types. It looks like we will be on the edge of temps which will bring snow, ice, rain and snow again. I will have details later this weekend, but the first system to watch is Monday into Tuesday as that potentiallycould be all snow.

There has been talk among some outlets of a massive winter storm next weekend, dumping 2 to 3 feet of snow on us. Please don't buy into it yet. I feel it is irrepsonsible to be talking in specifics more than a week away of the event. Plus, the data behind the pronouncement was one model and one run of data from that one model. Forecasting weather is more detailed than that. If a trend appears in the model, and other models pick this up, then by Monday or Tuesday I may become mildly interested. If all stays the same by Wednesday I'll be excited! But, all in time. For now, a warm up this weekend and possibly snow early in the week.

I'll have an update this weekend. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

Updated: 10:50 PM GMT on January 31, 2014

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UPDATE on Wed snow in Maryland

By: cws6196, 1:09 PM GMT on January 28, 2014

The possible snow event today will only be for Southern Maryland. The rest of the state could see a dusting of snow if you're lucky. Everything is dependent upon the position of the low off the coast and how moist the air can become. I am concerned that the air is too dry to sustain high snow accumulation. That said, I could see 2 or so inches falling in Southern Maryland starting this evening into Wednesday morning. If the low shifts closer to the coast we could see much higher snow accumulations. I will have another update later as conditions warrant.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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Wed S Maryland snow

By: cws6196, 5:33 PM GMT on January 27, 2014

I will have more details later, but, as I mentioned in my last post I am watching the potential for snow this Wednesday, and thus far my inclination is correct. The issue, as I mentioned, is with the position of the Low off the coast. A low will form off the GA/SC coast bringing snow and mixed precip to the far south. As I thought, it appears the low will now move further north along the coast before going out to sea, bringing snow chances to Maryland. For the moment I think that "if" the low does move further north than S MD is in play while central and N MD "may" only see a dusting or so. "If" this does materialize (I think it will) we could see 3 or more inches in S MD Wednesday morning.

I am still watching this and will have another update later. The cold will stay with us through the week, and a shot at snow this Saturday is possible, but too far away for anything definitive. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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more snow this week in Maryland

By: cws6196, 6:58 PM GMT on January 26, 2014

Winter continues and so does the cold and snow. We will have a "warm up" Monday (that's a relative term) but the temps plummet on Tuesday and remain in the teens and low twenties the rest of the week. Wind chill advisories may be needed later in the week.

There is a chance for light snow flurries later today into the early evening, but only a dusting. Monday afternoon we could see some light snow flurries, but only a dusting or so. The storm I was watching for Sunday into Monday will probably not impact MD as it stays to our north. I was looking for a southward pull from the storm, but that does not appear to be happening.

I'm still watching a possibility for snow Tuesday into Wednesday, although the official NWS forecast calls for nothing. The issue is a low forming off of the SC/GA coast, forecast to move NNE away from the coast. This will bring mixed precip and snow to VA south but should be too far off the coast to effect us. I don't want to yet say anything definitive until I see the movement of the low. If the low moves closer to the coast then we will see snow midweek. I'm keeping an eye on it.

Our next chance for snow is this weekend, but that time frame is too far away for any certainty, especially with the models not yet in agreement. I do feel there will be snow, but the details will have to wait a couple days.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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more snow coming to Maryland

By: cws6196, 4:43 PM GMT on January 24, 2014

Yes, it is winter and that means even more snow coming. The cold and below normal temps will stay with us through the end of January. We may have a day or so in the low 30's, but most days we will stay in 20s and teens.

A clipper system is moving through our area tomorrow and has the potential to add to our snow pack. The snow will start late morning and end early afternoon Saturday leaving us another inch or two.

I am also watching snow chances for Wednesday and next weekend. The snow chance for Sunday into Monday is still on my radar, but it looks like that will be a PA storm, although, I am watching it as the model data trend has been to place storm systems further north of where they actually occur. If the trend holds true, the system in PA shown by the models would actually be in central MD; so I'm still watching it.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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more Maryland snow

By: cws6196, 5:47 AM GMT on January 23, 2014

Yes, more snow possibilities on the way! The cold air will be with us for some time, so most of the snow currently on the ground will stay where it is. We have a chance for some light snow flurries Thursday afternoon, but only a dusting to an inch, nothing major. There's another chance Saturday for the same. Sunday into Monday is looking interesting, but at the moment the data doesn't yet support snow for us in MD, but I am seeing some shifting trends so in my mind its worth watching. The long range data (I am not a fan nor do I trust them) is hinting at another large system next weekend (not this weekend). I will keep an eye on all this and will post updates as I know more.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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UPDATE Tues morning re snow in Maryland

By: cws6196, 5:55 AM GMT on January 21, 2014

update Tues afternoon

A quick update to say that the storm is not yet over, actually its just beginning. The Low is deepening and moving off the coast, and as that continues the snow will increase and the temps will continue to drop. Tonight the wind chills will be below zero. Those in S MD have not yet had a lot of snow; be patient. As the Low moves it is causing a banding of snow from Richmond to move north into S MD. I, and the NWS, still see 4 - 6 for S MD and around 8"+ for central and N MD.

Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for frequent updates on the storm.

original post
So far all is on track for the snow. The Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 11:00pm Tuesday. The latest model data continues to increase the snow amounts. The good news is that we don't have any icing issues and the snow will be light and fluffy. Winds will increase in the afternoon which will drop the wind chills below zero. By Wednesday morning some places could have -12 F wind chills.

The snow should start in central and N MD around 8:00am or so while S MD will hold off until closer to 10:00am. The heaviest snow will be in the afternoon and during the evening rush hour. Since the snow is light and the winds will be strong, visibility will be reduced and drifting snow probable. Most areas should see 5 - 8 inches of snow but I do feel most of us will see more than that. S MD may see a bit less, but not by too much.

I will have another update if necessary. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for storm updates.

Updated: 9:10 PM GMT on January 21, 2014

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UPDATE snow Tues Maryland

By: cws6196, 4:51 PM GMT on January 20, 2014

In my last post I mentioned that the details needed to be worked out and that the potential existed for this to be a stronger storm than I first thought. The last couple days I have tweeted that I thought the models were missing something; well, now we have it! Our first major snow storm for the entire state! It appears the Low and the trough are strengthening and deepening, according to the models. As long as that trend continues we will see a hefty amount of snow. I do want to emphasize though that we are not expecting a blizzard. Many people (media outlets too) like to throw around that term, but for it to officially be a blizzard various criteria need to met, none of which we should meet tomorrow.

TIMING: Snow will begin later morning Tuesday lasting into the evening hours.

PRECIP: All snow. Temps will be below freezing all day with wind chills later in the day below zero. Snow will not melt by Wednesday.

ACCUMULATION: I am seeing easily 5 inches in most areas with the potential for much more if the the system continues to strengthen. The high end could be a foot. This is true for southern, central and northern MD.

THREATS: Strong gusting winds will begin in the afternoon, reducing visibility and causing drifting of snow. The wind chill temps will be below zero.

I expect the NWS to issue winter Warnings later this afternoon. I will have another update later tonight. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for storm updates.

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snow Tues in Maryland

By: cws6196, 12:46 AM GMT on January 20, 2014

Looks like the cold and snow are coming back! This week, beginning Tuesday, the extreme cold air returns to our area for a few days with high temps in the upper teens and lows below zero (not factoring in the wind chill). Given current dynamics and model data it appears we are looking at snow Tuesday. There are details which still need to be worked out, but I am fairly confident this will happen. I will spare you the technical details, but if you wish to know send me a message and I'll get back to you.

As I now see it, the snow will enter the area around noon or so, lasting through the afternoon rush hour into the evening. The exact position of the Low and extent of the trough will dictate snow amounts, but given that the temps will be in the teens, all the precip will be snow. I would estimate an accumulation of about an inch to two, although the potential exists for higher amounts if the Low positions itself further south then what I now expect.

I will have another update on Monday. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for daily weather tidbits and updates.

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snow today in Maryland

By: cws6196, 6:24 AM GMT on January 15, 2014

Timing is the only real update to my previous post. The snow will begin late evening Wednesday ending later Thursday morning. An inch or less of accumulation is expected, but since it may be snowing during the morning commute there may be some delays. If the coastal system shifts we could see much more snow, but I don't see that happening.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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UPDATE snow Wednesday

By: cws6196, 2:26 AM GMT on January 14, 2014

The snow chance still exists for Wednesday, but the accumulations will most likely be lite. The temps will be marginal and there will most likely be rain mixed in at times. I see the precip beginning in the morning, ending near afternoon, and beginning again in the early evening of Wednesday. Right now I am thinking about an inch central MD, a bit more near the PA line and less in S MD.

The model data and conditions are still not in alignment, so I will need to wait until later tomorrow to see how the observed conditions compare to the model data to gain more insight into what will happen. But I don't see this as a major event.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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snow coming again to Maryland

By: cws6196, 5:56 AM GMT on January 13, 2014

This is a quick note to say that I am looking at the possibility of snow this Wednesday. Details are still a bit blurred, but it appears a low will form off the coast bringing in colder air. At this time I don't see this as a major event with only about an inch or so of accumulation. I will know more later Monday and will have another update then.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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Tornadoes in January in Maryland?

By: cws6196, 4:35 PM GMT on January 11, 2014

The rain and fog will continue most of today with the rain heavy at times. There is a possibility for isolated thunderstorms later this afternoon. Also, the Storm Prediction Center places those areas S of Baltimore into S MD and the eastern shore in a chance for the probability of isolated tornado formation. I will say that I feel the tornado threat is unlikely, but in good faith I must pass this information along. Nonetheless, be on the lookout for storm formation and stay tuned to local media in the event any warnings are issued.

For those who want snow, the temps will again drop mid next week and the long-range probability is hinting at snow. More on that later.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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freezing rain Sunday in Maryland

By: cws6196, 10:03 PM GMT on January 04, 2014

The NWS issued a Freezing Rain Advisory for central and N MD for Sunday morning. The precip will start as freezing rain, turning to all rain in the afternoon. Later in the day the precip could turn to snow with some light accumulation. Be cautious regarding ice Monday morning.

MDZ003>006-050400-

/O.NEW.KLWX.ZR.Y.0001.140105T1100Z-140105T2000Z/

WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER

259 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM EST

SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO

3 PM EST SUNDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN ONE TENTH INCH.

* TIMING...THE BEST CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IS LATE SUNDAY

MORNING. A CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY

AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S AT ONSET...RISING THROUGH THE

LOWER 30S MIDDAY SUNDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTH 5 MPH OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...A COLD GROUND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING

WILL ALLOW RAIN TO FREEZE ON CONTACT...PARTICULARLY ON UNTREATED

ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR

FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

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snow in Maryland tomorrow

By: cws6196, 9:16 PM GMT on January 01, 2014

Happy New Year! The snow cometh! As of now we will most liekly see snow from this system tomorrow into Friday. There is a chance though that this storm could bust for Maryland since the sow will only happen if the 2 systems come together (phase). So, if the timing and location is off than all bets are off for snow. But, I do feel the phasing will happen and we will see snow.

TIMING: Late Thursday into early Friday.

PRECIP TYPE: S MD may see the precip start as rain but will change to snow.

ACCUMULATION: S MD could see an inch or so while central MD could see 2-4+ inches. If there is a shift in the system we could see a bit more accumulation.

I will have another update as needed. I am certain the NWS will issue winter advisories late today. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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About cws6196

I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.

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