Central MD Weather Conditions

snow this week in Maryland?

By: cws6196, 4:12 PM GMT on December 30, 2013

As I'm sure you've heard, snow is possible later this week as the temps will continue to drop. Unfortunately I can't say if we will see snow or not since there are many inconsistencies in the data. There is some consensus beginning to appear, but for us to have snow we will need two systems to merge (phase). That means the timing and location of both systems have to be exact. Any deviation either gives us lots of snow or nothing at all. I will know more in another day or so, but for now know that there is a chance for snow later in the week.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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snow today in Maryland

By: cws6196, 1:51 PM GMT on December 26, 2013

Depending on where you are right now, looking outside you may see some snowflakes falling. Now through this afternoon it's possible for those around Baltimore and into PA to see snow. Accumulation in most places should be limited to a dusting, although some locales could see an inch. Nothing for which to be concerned, but nice to see.

This Sunday a system comes through which should produce rain, but worth watching as temps will be a factor. Later next week there are some snow indications, but way too early to say anything with any degree of certainty.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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white Christmas in Maryland?

By: cws6196, 6:08 AM GMT on December 24, 2013

The warm trend is over and the cold temps are now returning. Will we have a white Christmas? Close. It does appear those around Baltimore and north could see some light snow Christmas Eve afternoon. Accumulation is not expected, although a dusting is possible in spots. Since the temps on Christmas Day will remain below freezing, if any snow stuck it will still be there on Christmas!

Long-range projections are beginning to show January as a cold and snowy month. More on that later.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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thunderstorms in Maryland today

By: cws6196, 2:19 PM GMT on December 22, 2013

Yes, this is the second day of winter; even though it is in the 70s and we are looking at rain and thunderstorms today. But, for those who love winter no worries, the cold returns in time for Christmas (but no white Christmas).

Today we will see rain, heavy at times, happening soon and continuing through tonight. There is a chance for scattered thunderstorms, and some of those storms could have gusty damaging winds.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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Saturday snow in Maryland

By: cws6196, 2:09 AM GMT on December 13, 2013

ORIGINAL POST Thursday evening
This Saturday will be interesting when it comes to the precip type as we will see mixed precip, although there is a chance for more snow than the models are showing. The warm air in the upper atmosphere will be an issue as well as the exact position of the low. Any deviation either in temp or position of the low will drastically change my forecast. Here's my forecast:

TIMING: Saturday morning through later Saturday afternoon. Those in the south will have precip sooner as the system moves NE.

PRECIP TYPE: The precip will start as snow with some isolated strong bursts. Later in the afternoon the change over to sleet and rain will occur. Those in S MD could see a change to all rain while those in central MD should see sleet and closer to MD/PA line the precip may stay all snow. Again, a deviation in the temp and/or position of the low would give us more rain or more snow. My hunch at the moment is for more snow.

ACCUMULATION: This is assuming the position of the low stays where I think it will. S MD could see about an inch of snow; central MD 1-2 inches of smow and ice accumulation, and N MD 2+ inches .

I will have another update later Friday. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

UPDATE Friday evening
Looking at the latest data and radar I am sticking with what I wrote last night. Those west and north of Baltimore could see a couple inches of new snow while crossing into PA we could see over 4 inches of new snow. Those in S MD should see snow but little to no stickage, an inch or less before you see all rain.

Keep in mind though that any shift in the location of the coastal low will change everything. I'll keep an eye on it Saturday morning and will update as necessary.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

Updated: 10:31 PM GMT on December 13, 2013

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snow this weekend in Maryland

By: cws6196, 1:29 PM GMT on December 12, 2013

This is just a quick message regarding the possible snow this weekend. I will have a more detailed report tonight after I see more data. Right now it appears there will be a possible coastal low forming off the Carolina coast moving NE. The exact position and timing of that low will determine what happens.

The timing is for Saturday and right now I am looking at mixed precip at the onset changing to either rain or snow depending on your location. I am concerned about the temps, but the position of the low will be the ultimate determining factor.

So, for now, know that Saturday will at least be a mixed precip day, but as the low forms we will find out if it will be either mainly rain or mainly snow. More details tonight.

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Ice in Maryland tonight

By: cws6196, 9:54 PM GMT on December 10, 2013

Those who saw snow I hope you enjoyed it! The forecast didn't verify as well as I would have liked what with S MD getting only rain and central MD with only a few inches of new snow. This time of the year is difficult to forecast snow in Maryland mainly due to the temps. Keep in mind that it isn't even yet officially Winter. There are many months yet to go for snow possibilities. As of today, BWI is just shy of the average snowfall for the month of December. The main problem with the storm today is that it moved through faster than anticipated, not allowing for the atmosphere to sufficiently cool in S MD, and taking away from the accumulation rate elsewhere.

Ice is a major issue for tonight into tomorrow morning. All the water on the ground will freeze over night as the temps drop into the 20s. Black ice will be an issue for the rush hour on sidewalks and side streets.

There is indication of another shot for snow this weekend (Friday into Saturday) but its way too early for any details. I will keep an eye on it; looks like it may be mixed precip again.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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UPDATE Monday evening re Tues snow

By: cws6196, 12:05 AM GMT on December 10, 2013

Yes, more snow is on the way! I have a few minor tweaks to my previous post, mainly in timing. Tuesday rush hour will not be pleasant as the onset of the system could produce some sleet before transitioning to all snow. Also, be cautious tonight about ice; all the wet pavement will freeze overnight as the temps continue to drop.

TIMING: The precip is moving in from the SW heading NE, therefore S MD will see the precip an hour or so sooner than the Baltimore area. The heaviest of the precip will be around 6:00am or so, depending on your location, and last through the afternoon.

PRECIP TYPE: May start as a period of sleet, but the main precip will be snow.

ACCUMULATION: S MD could see about 2 inches while central and N MD could see 4 or more, depending on location. There could be some heavy bursts of snow falling at a rate of an inch or more an hour.

Temps the rest of the week will be cool enough that most of what sticks tomorrow will stay around for a few days. I'm still watching the potential for another snow event for us this Saturday. Still too early for details.

I will have another update if my forecast needs to be changed. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for more frequent updates on the storm and weather conditions.

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Tuesday snow in Maryland

By: cws6196, 5:16 AM GMT on December 09, 2013

As the freezing rain coats the area in ice I hate to mention more wintry weather (actually I love this weather), but its in the forecast. Here's how I see it:

TIMING: Tuesday late morning lasting until late afternoon. The system is coming from the SW so those in S MD will see the precip before those in N MD.

PRECIP TYPE: Snow, although temps in S MD will be close to, or just above, freezing while those in central and N MD will be below freezing.

ACCUMULATION: I will know more later Monday, but for the moment I am looking at 1 - 3 inches of new snow. More N and less S. After I see more data later Monday I will refine this amount.

NEXT: After Tuesday I am looking at another chance for snow on Saturday. More on that later.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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UPDATE Sunday afternoon & talk of more snow

By: cws6196, 8:47 PM GMT on December 08, 2013

Did you like your 1 - 2 inches of snow? ...oops... This storm over-performed in terms of snow accumulation in most of MD, with the exception of S MD. When the snow began to fall hours earlier than expected I knew we were in for more snow. This time of the year is not easy to forecast, and given the high temps yesterday I was worried about a bust. But here we are with some areas over 6 inches of snow. .

The change over has begun to sleet. The surface temps are still well below freezing, but the upper air is above freezing, hence the sleet. As the column of air continues to warm we will transition to freezing rain and eventually to all rain as the air warms all the way to the surface.

Here's how I see things the rest of today as well as our next chances for snow. Yes, more snow is on the way.

TIMING: Sleet changes to freezing rain late this evening, changing from the south to the north. For those in central and N MD it should be all rain around the time for the morning rush hour (give or take). S MD should be all rain soon.

TUESDAY: Looks like more snow is on the way for late Monday into Tuesday morning and afternoon. I don't have any accumulation details just yet, but will let you know more late tonight or Monday morning. It shouldn't be too much, but some will accumulate.

WEEKEND: The potential exists for another snow / ice event next Saturday. Way too early for details, but know its quite probable.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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UPDATE Sunday morning snow in Maryland

By: cws6196, 2:20 PM GMT on December 08, 2013

Weather-wise we are still on track with my previous forecasts. There is snow and sleet in S MD right now moving north. Temps are below freezing. Remember, snow is not the issue today, rather the ice. All rain will happen later today south of Baltimore while N MD will see ice linger into Monday morning.

I will have another update if conditions change from my forecast. If you don't hear from me assume all is on track. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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UPDATE Maryland snow & ice Sunday

By: cws6196, 4:34 PM GMT on December 07, 2013

My apology for the delay but I was taking extra time looking over all the data. This is not an easy forecast for many reasons. If this were January or February it would be a slam dunk easy forecast, but since today is warm and late Sunday the winds will shift to come out of the south, bringing warm temps again, precip type and accumulation is difficult to determine. Timing and actual temp is everything. Any variation in either condition will drastically change the forecast. Therefore, this event will be more of a "nowcast" on Sunday. But, here is how I see things shaping up, assuming all variables stay in place:

TIMING: The precip is coming from the SW, so S MD will see the precip hours before those in N MD. The precip in the S will begin in the early morning hours of Sunday, stretching into Baltimore around noon and N MD after 1:00 or so. The precip will last into Monday.

PRECIP TYPE: This is the tricky part. It should start as all snow, with some heavy bursts in areas. As the afternoon progresses it will change to sleet and freezing rain. Late Sunday into Monday it will change to all rain. This change will occur from the S to the N. Your location will determine the what and when of the differnet types of precip.

ACCUMULATION: Those W and N of I-95 and Baltimore will have more accumulated snow and ice with S MD having the lowest amounts. Around Baltimore could see an inch or so of snow and a quarter or so inch of ice. For this storm don't focus on the snow amount; the ice is the issue. Some of the snow will melt away with the sleet. Those W and N of Baltimore could see a couple inches of snow and more ice accumulation.

Please be prepared for power outages due to the ice. I am certain the NWS will change the Winter Watch to a Warning and will most likely add S MD (Calvert and St. Marys) to a Winter Advisory or Watch. That all should happen later today.

I am also watching the potential for snow for us Monday night into Tuesday. I will have another update late today but will let you know of any changes in Watches/Warnings from the NWS. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for uodates on this event.

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UPDATE Friday morning

By: cws6196, 3:21 PM GMT on December 06, 2013

The models still indicate a cold scenario and so longer periods of frozen precip. All of Maryland, west of the Bay, will have frozen precip; the type, duration and accumulation will vary by location.

ACCUMULATION: I have heard media mentioning 1 - 3 inches of accumulation in the forecast. I am not yet giving numbers, but when you do hear numbers keep these two points in mind: location, and the amount of rain mixed with the frozen precip. The rain mix will keep accumulation rates down. The NWS, this morning, is indicating a maximum accumulation of 4 inches for central and N MD, but that number is the max and not taking into account melting due to rain. I will speak more about accumulation either later tonight or tomorrow morning.

Here is a statement from the local NWS: "THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOW BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE SPECIFICS OF THE EVENT."

There is another possibility for all snow Monday evening into Tuesday morning. I'll have more on that later. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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UPDATE Thursday evening

By: cws6196, 12:10 AM GMT on December 06, 2013

The data continues to favor a colder solution for Sunday. It appears more definite that we will have wintry precip Sunday into Monday morning, with the question being "where exactly will the rain/frozen line be, and how long will it last?" I will know more later Friday, but for now here's how I see it:

TIMING: Early Sunday morning through Monday morning.

PRECIP TYPE: Starting Sunday morning as snow, transitioning to freezing rain, then to rain. There could be another transition back to freezing rain later in the afternoon through Monday morning.

ACCUMULATION: Southern and central MD should see little in the way of accumulation. North and West of Baltimore could see accumulation of snow and ice.

Please keep in mind that this is preliminary and probably will change as we get closer to the event. I will also have a better idea of the timing late Friday or early Saturday.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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UPDATE Thursday morning

By: cws6196, 5:52 AM GMT on December 05, 2013

I will be brief, but the model data has been trending to a colder scenario for Sunday. There is still a lot of inconsistency in the data, and as such uncertainty remains, but if this scenario happens that would mean Sunday morning we could see snow and freezing rain in S MD and later in the afternoon central MD would see freezing rain and ice possibly into Monday. This is not definite, but how it is trending.

Here is the latest from the local NWS: "THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT STARTING AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY MONDAY... ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-95. A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE EVENT."

I will have another update late Thursday. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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UPDATE winter precip in Maryland

By: cws6196, 4:34 PM GMT on December 04, 2013

Yes, even though the temps today and tomorrow are above normal, there is still a chance for wintry weather this weekend. If you are hearing about the snow and cold in the west, that system will be heading our way, bringing us very cold temps next week.

The issue this weekend is complicated in that many factors are involved, and the timing of those factors interacting with each other effects what we experience. And until we get closer to the event, the timing will be the unknown. What I know right now is that a low pressure system will be to our west as a high pressure system moves north of us. The subsequent airflow from these systems will bring us warm air from the south riding on top of the cold air at the surface (from the low and the high respectively). As the precip falls through the warm layer it is rain, but freezes as it falls through the colder layer at the surface. How cold that layer of air is, and if it can translate cold air higher into the atmosphere will determine what we experience.

AT THE MOMENT: What I feel will happen is that Sunday morning we will see a mixture of snow and freezing rain, transitioning to all rain later in the day. Areas west and north of Baltimore would see a longer period of frozen precip. Those in S MD will see the frozen stuff sooner than those in central MD. As we get closer to the event I will have a better idea about timing and precip type.

Next week we will see some very cold temps with possibly a few more chances for precip. If the precip does happen than next week could get interesting; but that's too far away.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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long-range winter weather in Maryland

By: cws6196, 5:01 PM GMT on December 01, 2013

I so hate talking about long-range forecasts, but, once again, social and traditional media are jumping on what some of the models are showing for next week. So, to keep all of you in the loop, I feel I need to mention it, although I don't want to. Some of the data indicates wintry weather, snow/ice late next weekend into early next week. This is not my forecast. It is way too soon for certainty. As the week progresses, and if there is consistency in the data, as well as other indicators, then I will get excited. Until that happens I will continue to monitor daily as I always do.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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About cws6196

I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.

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