Central MD Weather Conditions

UPDATE Wednesday morning

By: cws6196, 3:32 PM GMT on November 27, 2013

Thus far my forecast is on track. Did you notice that it was warmer overnight than it is now and as it was yesterday? All this weather (temps and precip) is driven by the Low. A low pressure system spins counter clockwise, so as the low was to our SW it spun up warm air into the area last night; now it is to our NE and the spin is bringing us air from the NW which is why the temps are dropping. All this was expected and is what makes this forecast difficult. The precip will continue all day, but as the temp continues to drop the snow flakes will mix in. I assume for those in central MD this will be after 1:00pm and for those in S MD it could be a bit later. Most of us won't see the snow sticking, although some areas could see half an inch or so. The rain/snow and wind will stop later tonight leaving us with a dry yet cold Thanksgiving Day.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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UPDATE Monday evening re Maryland holiday snow

By: cws6196, 4:11 AM GMT on November 26, 2013

Looking at the data as well as the current storm system to our south I feel confident in what I have previously written. Here's a summary:

TIMING: The precip is moving in from the south, so the timing will depend on your location, but those in S MD could start to see precip after 6:00am lasting through late Wednesday while N MD may not see precip until around 8:00am or so and lasting into Wednesday evening.

PRECIP TYPE: The sooner in the morning the precip starts the greater the chance for a wintry mix. Most of the day we should experience rain with another shot for mixed precip later Wednesday.

ACCUMULATION: For those in central and S MD there will be no accumulation of wintry precip but could be about 2 inches of rainfall. Those in N MD could see a dusting or so of snow later Wednesday.

I will have updates later Tuesday as necessary. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather and storm updates.

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UPDATE Monday morning re Maryland holiday snow

By: cws6196, 5:14 AM GMT on November 25, 2013

Well, looking over the data it appears that what I last wrote is still in effect with some minor tweaks. But before you get too excited, there's still a lot of uncertainty as the models are just now beginning to come into some agreement, but are still mainly all over the place. I will have a better handle on all this once the southern portion of the storm forms and moves. Once that is on the move it will help me to verify which of the models is closest to the actual path of the actual storm (the current data is still based on a yet unformed storm system).

As I said in my last post, most of us will see a rain event for most of the storm. That seems to be the given, with the rain occurring much of Tuesday into Wednesday. It is possible for us to have multiple inches of rainfall. Here's my summary:

CHANGES FROM MY LAST POST: Depending on the timing and location of the coastal low, the precip Tuesday morning could begin as freezing rain or sleet. There is some indication that late Wednesday, experiencing the effects of the wrap around precip of the exiting storm, we could see snow falling and accumulating. Its "possible" for central and S MD to have a couple inches of accumulating snow. But this is only possible, not yet definite. I will know more later Monday.

TIMING: Right now it appears the system will effect us Tuesday into maybe Thanksgiving day. Timing is key to the precip type, but the timing and exact location of the system are still not agreed upon by the data. As of now I would say the precip will start Tuesday morning and last until at least late Wednesday evening.

PRECIP TYPE: Timing is key. The air will be cold but most likely just above freezing most of the day Tuesday into Wednesday. Early Tues morning will be below freezing and late Wednesday into Thanksgiving will be close to freezing. The upper air will be below freezing. So, timing of the system, exact surface temp, and ground temp are all factors into what will happen. Right now I would say most of us will see a cold rain with some periods of sleet Tues morning and possible snow late Wednesday.

I will have another update later Monday. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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UPDATE Maryland Thanksgiving snow

By: cws6196, 12:54 AM GMT on November 24, 2013

I typically wouldn't be doing this, saying anything about a potential snow event this far in advance, but since the weather could effect holiday travel I will make an exception. Please know that this may, and probably will, change some before the actual event. But, for the sake of travelers, here goes:

SUNDAY: Cold is the word. Temps will have a hard time getting into the 30s, and the gusty wind will make it feel like the temp is in the 20s. We could see some snow flakes, but no accumulation (a dusting in some spots). The snow we will see is not produced overhead, meaning, the snow we will see is coming from the Great Lakes and their lake effect snows. We will have a strong upper level jet which will blow the snow from there to here.

NEXT WEEK:

TIMING: Right now it appears the system will effect us Tuesday into maybe Thanksgiving day. Timing is key to the precip type, but the timing and exact location of the system are still not agreed upon by the data. As of now I would say the precip will start Tuesday morning and last until at least late Wednesday evening.

PRECIP TYPE: If I knew the answer to this, for sure, I would be the best forecaster around! But, I don't know. The data is all over the place, and timing is key. Here's what I do know: the air will be cold but most likely just above freezing most of the day Tuesday into Wednesday. Early Tues morning will be below freezing and late Wednesday into Thanksgiving will be close to freezing. Hence the issue. The upper air will be below freezing. So, timing of the system, exact surface temp, and ground temp are all factors into what will happen. Right now I would say most of us will see a cold rain with some periods of sleet. Worst case scenario is a freezing rain situation. I would take snow over freezing rain any day.

SUMMARY: 1. I don't know much for certain; 2. lots of precip Tues into late Wed; 3. most likely rain, maybe some sleet; 4. Thanksgiving into Friday will be way cold again.

I will have another update late Sunday. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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Maryland snow Sunday

By: cws6196, 4:13 PM GMT on November 23, 2013

It looks more and more likely that we will see snow flakes tomorrow. Odds are that central Maryland won't see accumulating snow, but snow nonetheless. I'm still watching the potential for unsettled weather next week. I mentioned this awhile ago, and the models continue to show this potential. I don't yet have details, but we could have unsettled weather Tuesday into Wednesday with anything from icing to snow to just cold rain. More to come.

I will have a detailed report later today after I can look over more data. Whether or not we see snow tomorrow, the temp will barely get into the 30s for the high, and with the strong wind, the temps will feel like they are in the lower 20s; and this is the high for tomorrow.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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Thanksgiving snow in Maryland?

By: cws6196, 3:11 PM GMT on November 20, 2013

Ok, here we go again. The models are hinting at snow for us next week and many on social media and the news outlets are once again running with the "story". I too have seen the data (for a few days now) but, as always, am cautious about long-range forecasting. If you recall a couple weeks ago the models gave us a similar pattern a week out, only for us, the week later, to not have any snow. I will say, though, that some of the dynamics in these model runs are a bit different from the last time (last time the data indicated snow from the west; this time a coastal), but still, too far away.

What I will say at this time is that the temps will continue to drop, and this weekend will be quite cold with the high temps only in the low 30's. There is a "chance" for those in central and northern Maryland to see some snow flakes later Sunday, but little to no accumulation. Those flakes will be from snow over the Great Lakes which will be blown in our direction (strong upper level jet). But after the weekend I am seeing indications of a slight warm up, and that's one of the reasons I am skeptical about snow around Thanksgiving. Nonetheless, there is a high probability that the main travel days (Tues - Thurs) could experience heavy rain and storms. As to precip type, I will wait until we are closer to next week for any determination.

I will have another update over the weekend, hopefully being able to be more definitive then. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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severe weather in Maryland tonight

By: cws6196, 3:48 PM GMT on November 17, 2013

As the fog lifts I look to the midwest of the US as they are poised for some very strong and severe weather later today. They could see a tornado outbreak. That system is moving to the east and will impact our area late tonight, most likely after midnight. We won't see the tornado activity, but we could see strong thunderstorms with the main threat being gusty, damaging winds. I am assuming the NWS will issue watches/warnings late tonight. I will have another update later today when I have a better idea what the storm in the midwest is doing and how that will impact us. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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UPDATE Maryland snow

By: cws6196, 6:31 PM GMT on November 10, 2013

As I expected, the "storm" others were talking about is not going to happen. This is the very reason I do not make long-range predictions. The only reason I mentioned it was because the media jumped on it and I wanted you to know my cautions. So, no snow storm this coming week. But, that doesn't mean no snow at all.

As I mentioned in my previous posts, I always felt the possibility of snow falling existed; what I questioned was accumulating snow. So, here's how I see things:

TIMING: Early Tuesday morning (before 6:00am) through Tuesday afternoon.

PRECIP TYPE: Rain and snow mix with snowflakes falling in the early morning hours.

ACCUMULATION: No snow accumulation. Although, some shaded areas of non-pavement could see a dusting.

I will have another update if conditions change. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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UPDATE snow in Maryland next week

By: cws6196, 7:11 PM GMT on November 08, 2013

There continues to be talk about snow next week for most of Maryland. Will it snow? That's the question which, unfortunately, cannot yet be answered. Many are trying to answer it, but to be honest, anyone telling you they know exactly what will happen is only guessing. The model data continues to shift the scenario, although the European model has remained fairly consistent with the idea of a storm.

If the models are to be translated literally (not good forecasting), we would see snow falling late Wednesday into Thursday with accumulations in central MD of 4 or so inches, half that in S MD. This is not my forecast! I'm just letting you know what the models indicate. The models are predicting an Alberta clipper set up interacting with a coastal storm.

I will not, until later in the weekend, speak of my forecasted totals or even if I believe it will snow and stick. It is way too early for that. Is it possible that it could snow next week? Yes. The question, though, should be if its probable. Here are some of my concerns for seeing accumulating snow next week:

1. The ground temp is too warm. The snow would need to fall at night and at a heavy rate.

2. The coastal storm will bring us an onshore wind flow (wind coming from the ocean), and with the ocean temps still warm, the air entering MD will be warmed before it bumps into the cold Alberta clipper air.

3. The timing of the clipper and the coastal storm (as well as the position of the storm) have to be perfect.

Right now, with the information at hand, I would say that a likely scenario is one wherein we experience mixed precip (rain and snow) with no accumulation for central and S MD. But that's just my hypothesis, not my forecast.

I will have future updates as information warrants. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather tidbits and updates.

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Maryland snow next week?

By: cws6196, 4:48 AM GMT on November 07, 2013

There's been increased chatter about snow in Maryland next week. The other day I saw it mentioned by a select few forecasters, now today many forecasters and media outlets are jumping on it. Here's what's happening: long-range model data is indicating snow late in the week next week. Since cold air should be in place, some people are jumping on the fact that it will be snow and are agreeing with the models. November is a difficult month for us to have snow. It is possible, but difficult. Recall last March when the models showed snow and we had a rain event; same scenario in that March is a difficult month for us to have snow. So, based on the time of the year and the ground temps, I am skeptical of us experiencing a snow event next week. Plus, the model data is indicating a foot or more of snow north of Baltimore City. Really? In December or January, maybe.

So, for the moment, here is my take on this:

1. I don't find long-range forecasts to be helpful and typically do not make them

2. Given the cold air in place, especially at night, the timing of the precip will make all the difference. If the precip occurs during the overnight hours I could agree that we may see some flakes but with no accumulation.

I will keep an eye on how this develops, but please don't follow the hype. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for daily weather tidbits and updates.

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About cws6196

I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.

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