Central MD Weather Conditions

New Years snow Maryland

Posted by: cws6196, 3:13 PM GMT on December 31, 2012

Will we see snow on New Years Day? Sorry, but no, not like I originally thought a few days ago. The system will stay to the south of us. Since the system is close to us, we could see scattered snow showers, but nothing widespread and no accumulations. This time those south of Baltimore have a better chance to see the localized snow than do those north of Baltimore. There is a very "slight" chance for snow this weekend, but very slight. More on that later.

I wish to thank all of you for your support this past year! I tried to provide you with accurate forecasts to keep you safe. I am committed to do the same in the new year. Please feel free to encourage others to join this list and to follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and Google+ by searching "weather man maryland".

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UPDATE Saturday morning Maryland

Posted by: cws6196, 2:58 PM GMT on December 29, 2012

Patience ... If you want snow it will happen in a few hours, but only if you are north and west of Baltimore. Yes, I went out on a limb and got pushed off by Mother Nature... For an explanation of what happened and where I went wrong see below.

TIMING: The storm is strengthening and the snow will fall in a couple hours. Those in S MD have rain now. The precip should be over late afternoon/early evening.

ACCUMULATION: Those around Baltimore "may" see a dusting while those south will only have rain. Those north and west could see a couple inches while those along the MD/PA line could see 3 or so.

WHAT HAPPENED? The term you will hear today is "dry slot". All the right dynamics were in place late last night for a good snow storm, but then the dry slot happened. The low in the TN area was dying while a new low was forming around FL. That latter low was the one to move up the coast and give us the snow. It is moving up the coast, but it formed too slowly (late) and too far to the south. Had it formed a bit closer to the TN low and quicker it would have taken much of the energy from the dying low and adding to it's new energy. Since that did not happen it allowed for a dry slot to form in between the two lows. Therefore, overnight we saw precip in western MD and S MD, but the central part was dry. Dry slots are not easy to forecast since we can't yet determine exactly how quickly a new low will form. Have a dry slot during the period when the initial snow was to fall decreases the overall snow accumulations since it started later but will end the same time. Also, since the energy wasn't transferred the new low is weaker. In summary, this is why only a portion of MD will see snow, and less than I forecasted. I hate to be wrong, especially when it means less snow, but I was.

The next system to watch is mid next week. It's too early yet for me to comment on that system, but know that snow is possible again.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather updates and tidbits. I am also on Google+ searchable as "weather man maryland".

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UPDATE weekend snow Maryland

Posted by: cws6196, 4:48 PM GMT on December 28, 2012

UPDATE Friday evening

Most of the weather blogs I follow as well as the NWS disagree with my previous post, but I am sticking with it. As today progressed the NWS extended the Winter Weather Advisory and the radar images differed from what the model data predicted. Also, as I write this the temps are colder and the precip field (area of precip) is larger than shown by the models. Combining all that with the history of our recent storms I am still leaning toward the colder snowier option. Yes, I may be wrong and the precip less than I am forecasting, but those of you who don't want snow won't be upset. ... But seriously, what I previously posted I stand by.

Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for updates and search for me on Google+ "weather man maryland".

original post
There is a lot to consider in this forecast, but I am still going with my more aggressive stance, meaning a colder and snowier solution. The models which have done the best in forecasting the previous storms point in this way while the GFS model, used primarily by the NWS, has a warmer and less snow solution. But, this model has yet to be correct in these past storms. The NWS is still using this model for their forecast, hence the lower amounts of snow you are hearing from them. But, the NWS has, since yesterday upped their amounts. A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for northern MD, although I would not be surprised to later see the advisory shifted further south.

My details from yesterday stay the same. I am forecasting on a higher end, and if you have any mixed precip or rain your amounts will be lower.

The next snow system is next week Tues - Thurs. Too early for details. More on that later.

TIMING: The precip will begin in the south and move up the coast. S MD should see precip beginning early Saturday morning through Saturday evening. Central MD a bit later and last longer. The bulk of the precip will be in the early afternoon.

PRECIP TYPE: Should start as snow with possibly a brief period of rain (S MD) in the afternoon. I think central MD will stay snow with maybe some mixed frozen precip in the afternoon. S MD could see another change over to snow later in the evening.

ACCUMULATION: This is a first look and could change. The final amounts will be less depending if you have rain and or mixed precip. By the end of Saturday I see S MD with about 1 - 3" of snow, although the rain will melt some of it with another light batch of snow later in the day adding to the overall total. The metro Baltimore area 2 - 5" with those areas west and far north (MD/PA line) closer to 5 - 6" or so.

I will have another update later tonight if needed. If all looks to be the same I will not update again until Saturday.

Follow me daily on Twitter, even if you don't have an account (www.twitter.com/wxmanmd), for weather updates and tidbits. I am also on Google+ searchable as "weather man maryland".

Updated: 2:03 AM GMT on December 29, 2012

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weekend snow in Maryland

Posted by: cws6196, 7:27 PM GMT on December 27, 2012

Isn't it nice that this is the third shot of snow in a week? The system to effect us this weekend is similar to the Christmas Eve set up, yet at the moment the model data is not consistent (no surprise). As I develop this forecast I am looking at the models which have done the best thus far as well as the history that the recent storms took a colder solution than first predicted. A predictor to this being a weaker event than first thought is the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) which is forecast to be positive this weekend. For us in Maryland to see a strong coastal storm we need the NAO to be negative. Not to say it can't snow, but diminishes the opportunity for a strong coastal (blizzards).

Below is my initial thought, so I reserve the ability to modify, although I believe I am on track with my thinking on this. Keep in mind though that the exact path of the low, as well as timing, will drastically change the outcome. What I am forecasting now is based on what I feel the track will be.

TIMING: The precip will begin in the south and move up the coast. S MD should see precip beginning early Saturday morning through Saturday evening. Central MD a bit later and last longer.

PRECIP TYPE: Should start as snow with possibly a brief period of rain (S MD) in the afternoon. I think central MD will stay snow with maybe some mixed frozen precip in the afternoon. S MD could see another change over to snow later in the evening.

ACCUMULATION: This is a first look and could change. The final amounts will be less depending if you have rain and or mixed precip. By the end of Saturday I see S MD with about 1 - 3" of snow, although the rain will melt some of it with another light batch of snow later in the day adding to the overall total. The metro Baltimore area 2 - 5" with those areas west and far north (MD/PA line) closer to 5 - 6" or so.

As I continue to look at the data I will have updates with tweaks as needed. Once the low moves through the South late Friday I will know better its strength and exact path. Once I have that information the forecast can be more precise.

Follow me daily on Twitter, even if you don't have an account (www.twitter.com/wxmanmd), for weather updates and tidbits. I am also on Google+ searchable as "weather man maryland".

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UPDATE Wed morning Maryland

Posted by: cws6196, 4:56 PM GMT on December 26, 2012

Enjoying the winter scene? I am. Please be careful on the roads though. As I look at the radar and the current conditions it appears the warm air is slowly overtaking the cold air around the Annapolis area. I do wonder though if my "alternate" forecast I posted yesterday may come to fruition. Once again the colder air is dominating the forecast as opposed to what the models indicated. How might this effect the weekend storm? I will look in more detail later, but my thought at the moment is to lean toward a colder and snowier solution.

PRECIP TYPE: Those south of Baltimore will see a transition to sleet and rain in a couple hours. Those west and north of Baltimore should see all snow.

ACCUMULATIONS: Those just west and north could see a couple inches while those further out could see 3 or more inches.

WEEKEND: I will look at the data later today and have an update tomorrow morning.

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Wed snow event Maryland

Posted by: cws6196, 5:06 AM GMT on December 26, 2012

quick update Wed morning

The transition to snow is now happening in central MD. S MD has all rain and it will stay that way. For those having snow, the flakes should remain falling until around noon or so. I originally thought 10:00, but the colder air is staying around a bit longer. Most around Baltimore could see a dusting or so before the rain, while those further west and north could get a couple inches. Enjoy!

original post
As I previously posted, Wednesday's event will begin as frozen precip making the morning commute a bit challenging. Those closer to Baltimore and in S MD could see light snow and sleet before turning to rain, while those west and north of Baltimore could see a longer period of snow followed by accumulating freezing rain.

TIMING: For most the precip should start as snow around 3:00am or so and by 6:00am will either be sleet or snow/freezing rain (as mentioned above). By 10:00am or so we should see the change over to all rain, although another shot of snow late in the day is possible.

CONCERNS: The morning commute could be dangerous given the frozen precip, especially side roads. As the day progresses we could see around an inch of rain. Local flooding should not be an issue, although clogged drains should be cleared.

ALTERNATIVE FORECAST: I am still a bit concerned that the cold air will remain longer as it did on Christmas Eve. The dynamics this time are a bit different from the 24th, but I do see the possibility of a colder solution. If this solution is true, the difference to my forecast would mean a longer period of snowfall and no freezing rain (sleet still possible but later in the day). If this happens I could see 1 - 2 inches of accumulation in the Baltimore area and a dusting in S MD. In either solution rain or sleet should still happen, but for a shorter time frame. Those west and north of Baltimore, in this solution, would see more than 2" of snow and possibly no change to rain.

ODDS: What do I think will happen? I am still shooting for my original solution and timing, just letting you know that I have some doubt (not much).

Updated: 2:35 PM GMT on December 26, 2012

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next snow storm for Maryland

Posted by: cws6196, 6:38 PM GMT on December 25, 2012

Merry Christmas!! I hope you all liked the snow gift yesterday. I measured an inch of accumulating snow. The last time we had snow falling on Christmas Eve in Baltimore was back in 2002! In 2009 there was snow on the ground for Christmas Eve from a previous storm. So last night was a special gift for us.

Now we have two more storms to watch; one tomorrow into Thursday and then again this weekend. I think that given the colder temp yesterday leading to snow on the ground we are now heading into a cooler period. Since it is Christmas and we all have other things to do, I will keep this short.

WEDNESDAY: After midnight the precip will begin and should start as snow and sleet. Later in the day will be a warm up so all will turn to rain, but those west and north of Baltimore could see some accumulation of snow and some accumulating ice. Those around Baltimore and south should not see much of any accumulation. Does this remind you of yesterday? It is a similar pattern, and although I would lean more toward the colder solution as with yesterday, I am still seeing this as a warmer solution. But, everyone, except the eastern shore, will have frozen precip in the early morning hours. Near the end of the system we could see some snow. Those in Carroll co and west as well as along the MD/PA line, given that the current snow cover could keep the temps down you should see accumulation.

WEEKEND: I am not yet ready to give anything definite, but this system is looking good for us. Right now I could see everyone in central and S MD seeing a few inches of accumulating snow later Saturday into Sunday morning. But more on that later.

I will have another update later today and maybe in the morning Wed. Follow me daily on Twitter (www.twitter.com/wxmanmd) for weather updates. If you are on Google+ find me by searching "weather man maryland".

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UPDATE Monday later afternoon

Posted by: cws6196, 8:05 PM GMT on December 24, 2012

As I previously mentioned those west and north of Baltimore could see accumulation and that appears to be what is happening. I will say that there is more snow than I thought, figuring on snow later in the evening rather than now. But the temps stayed colder than I figured they would. Some of the data showed this but I passed it off given the history of this winter thus far. But, now that we see a colder trend in this storm it opens the possibility for a colder trend in our next 2 storm systems (more on those later).

So, for now I figure those west and north of Baltimore could see an inch on the grassy areas and those along the MD/PA a bit more. I try to get this stuff right, but to be honest, snow for Christmas ... I am fine with being a bit off. .... hehe Enjoy!

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UPDATE Mon early afternoon

Posted by: cws6196, 7:51 PM GMT on December 24, 2012

Thus far the forecast I posted earlier is still in effect. The precip is a bit behind what I thought time-wise, but should be in central MD soon (already in S MD). As I previously mentioned, the precip will be a mixed bag of sleet, snow flakes and rain, but mostly rain. It could turn to snow later in the evening, but nothing should really stick. There could be isolated areas to receive a dusting, while those west of Baltimore and along the MD/PA line could see an inch or so, maybe.

The next storm looks to be a mainly rain event while the weekend storm shows promise for snow. More on those later.

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UPDATE snow in Maryland

Posted by: cws6196, 12:56 AM GMT on December 24, 2012

As has been typical this winter, the forecast is a complicated one. There is much potential, but not that we will see the full effects. Much of the nation will have snow this week, and some areas will have multiple feet of snow. But not us in Maryland. We have a couple low pressure systems moving into the area, but the position of the low does not allow for snow development. A phrase you may hear this week is CAD, cold air damming. This is where the cold air at the surface is trapped, thus allowing for frozen precip even if warm air is moving into the area. Another feature to take into account is the precip tends to cool the air column, so if the surface temps are close to freezing and the upper air is below freezing the precip could bring down the colder air. Sleet is another possiblity this week, and that happens when the upper air is cold yet the surface a bit warmer.

Here is how I see things. Those in S MD mainly will see rain from these events.

CHRISTMAS EVE: Most of us will see rain, but the day may start off with sleet later turning to rain for the rest of the event. There is a slight chance for some snow to fall later in the evening, but nothing will stick.

WEDNESDAY / THURSDAY: The storm path is still uncertain, but I figure most in central MD will have a rain event. Those north and west of Baltimore should see snow and it may accumulate an inch or so. Any shift in the path of the low will change things, but I don't anticipate a change in what I am currently seeing. Thursday will be another windy day as we had Saturday.

WEEKEND: There is another potential for a storm and we could see snow. But, not only is this too far off, I am not confident, given the patterns this winter, that there will be snow at all. I will keep you posted.

So, in summary, most of is will see rain and periods of frozen precip yet no major accumulation of either ice nor snow. I will keep you posted on the future storms.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather updates. I will update my Weather Phone as needed.

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white Christmas in Maryland?

Posted by: cws6196, 6:53 PM GMT on December 22, 2012

Will we have a white Christmas? Possibly. I have been reviewing the data and trending, and as it stands at the moment, snow for us is a good possibility, but not yet guaranteed There are many factors to be considered, and with 3-4 days yet until the event much can change. As is true for our winters, it all depends on the location of the low pressure system. As the low spins counterclockwise we need to have the low's center positioned in just the right track for us to have the cold air filter into the area. Any shift of the low and the spin brings up warm air. So for now, the potential of snow exists, but the track of the low is still in question.

Here is how I see things at the moment:

1. Monday evening into Tuesday morning those north and west of Baltimore could see light snow. Any accumulation in the Baltimore area would be a dusting but those into PA could see more. S MD may see flakes but nothing major.

2. Wednesday into Thursday is the potential for a stronger system and one where we have the potential to see varied forms of precip. Right now it appears to start as rain, change to freezing rain, than snow later Wednesday evening into Thursday. I don't yet want to speculate on accumulations as it is 4 days away and any rain prior to the snow will limit stickage. My best guess? Shouldn't be more than 3 inches; but that is only a guess, not my forecast.

3. Way too far out at the moment, but there is a hint of a storm around January 2. That's all I'll say on that at the moment.

I will keep you all posted, but know that come Monday and then Wed-Thurs we will see precip; the type still needs to be nailed down.

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UPDATE snow in Maryland

Posted by: cws6196, 4:59 AM GMT on December 21, 2012

Just think what it would be like if all this rain were snow .... I've been reviewing the data and it seems that what I wrote yesterday still stands. Here is a synopsis:

CONDITIONS: Rain, heavy at times through at least Friday morning. Winds to pick up in intensity as Friday turns into Saturday. The wind will be caused by the tight pressure gradient between a New England low pressure and an incoming high pressure from the west. Snow flakes possible later Friday.

WIND: A High Wind Watch is in effect for Saturday, but the strong wind gusts will start later Friday. Power outages are possible, and some outdoor decorations may get blown around or become airborne.

SNOW: Seeing snow flakes later Friday is not out of the question, but accumulations will be limited to west of Baltimore and along the MD/PA line. Those areas could see an inch but probably less. The rest of the area will not see any accumulation.

LONG-RANGE: Still watching the potential for some snow Christmas morning and potential for a stronger system to effect us Wed into Thurs. Most likely it would be snow, but as of now, depending how the low moves, we could see either all rain, freezing rain, or snow. Too early for anything more than speculation.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather updates and info, and find me on Google+ by searching "weather man maryland".

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Snow coming to Maryland?

Posted by: cws6196, 5:30 AM GMT on December 20, 2012

It appears we are entering an interesting weather pattern for the next week or longer. Without getting into the meteorologic details (unless you want them just let me know) there are some snow chances coming up, although I am not overly confident just yet. Assuming we all make it past Friday (thanks to the Mayans) we will be entering a cold period which could sustain snow. But, for snow to happen we need other factors to fall into place, not just cold air. It is the lack of those other factors which has me not too sure about snow just yet.

Thursday evening into Friday we will have rain, heavy at times. Then, with a strong cold front moving through Friday we could have another burst of rain later Friday evening coupled with very strong winds. I would not be surprised to see wind advisories issued. These winds will bring the wind chill temps sub freezing allowing for the fresh burst of precip to become snow. Before you get too excited, odds are the snow will not accumulate except along the MD/PA line with a dusting or so.

A period following Christmas Day has potential for a storm that could bring us snow, and another potential system the first week of January could produce something. But these are too far away for any confidence. Honestly, I think our best chance for snow will be later in January, but these other potential storms are worth watching.

I will have an update when conditions become more certain. If any advisories watches or warnings are issued I will let you know. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather updates. I'm also on Google+ if you search for "weather man maryland".

Updated: 5:31 AM GMT on December 20, 2012

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still no snow in Maryland

Posted by: cws6196, 6:25 PM GMT on December 16, 2012

For those who want snow, sorry. Once again, the system I was looking at fell through. In my previous post I stated I wasn't confident in the system, and that statement proved to be true. For at least the third time in a row storm systems are positioning themselves in such a way that we in Maryland get rain. For the next few days we will see rain, but no storms.

When is the snow coming? Maybe not until January, although the end of December holds promise I wouldn't yet count on it. What we need is an influx of arctic air, a strong high over New England, and snow cover in the Appalachians and to our NW. Until all those factors come together I don't see us getting snow. All that said though, come Friday some of us may see some flakes flying, but nothing that will be significant nor stick.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather updates and tidbits. On Google+ find me by searching "weather man maryland".

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snow in Maryland next week?

Posted by: cws6196, 5:17 AM GMT on December 12, 2012

Those you have been around my forecasting know I am not a fan of long-term forecasts, but if I talk of events happening too far into the future I make sure to have a level of "cautious confidence". That is true about what I see next week.

The model data as well as other climatology factors are pointing toward a potential snow event mid to end next week. I have seen this developing for some time now, but given the trending we have seen in recent events I didn't want to say anything too early. This is probably still too early, but the data is mounting.

I am not saying we will have a storm. This is not my forecast; rather I am giving you all a heads up to a potential snow event. I have no more details yet that I wish to post. Give me at least until this weekend to gain more confidence in a forecast for me to say more. Suffice it to say, I will be keeping an eye on this.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather updates and tidbits. If you have Google+ find my weather page by searching "weather man maryland".

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thunder later today in Maryland

Posted by: cws6196, 1:55 PM GMT on December 10, 2012

Today we will see an unseasonable warm up once the fog lifts. The rest of the day will remain cloudy, although the sun may poke through a bit. Those in Southern MD will be warmer than central MD with temps in the low 70s to upper 60s respectively. Later this afternoon/evening when the cold front approaches we could have some thunder and lightning, but nothing major. Lightning is always dangerous, but these will not be intense storms.

Will it snow? I so wish, but not at least for a couple weeks. I am liking the end of December, but more realistically not until January. Even though the temps will be dropping, without a push of real arctic air into the area we will remain without snow. For those who want snow keep in mind it isn't even yet officially Winter; there is still time.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for weather updates and tidbits. If you are on Google+ find my weather page by searching "weather man maryland".

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I host a Weather Phone: 443-470-9804 & email list for people in MD. Follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD. I am also a Skywarn spotter & CoCoRaHS observer.

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