UPDATE Friday evening
Most of the weather blogs I follow as well as the NWS disagree with my previous post, but I am sticking with it. As today progressed the NWS extended the Winter Weather Advisory and the radar images differed from what the model data predicted. Also, as I write this the temps are colder and the precip field (area of precip) is larger than shown by the models. Combining all that with the history of our recent storms I am still leaning toward the colder snowier option. Yes, I may be wrong and the precip less than I am forecasting, but those of you who don't want snow won't be upset. ... But seriously, what I previously posted I stand by.
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There is a lot to consider in this forecast, but I am still going with my more aggressive stance, meaning a colder and snowier solution. The models which have done the best in forecasting the previous storms point in this way while the GFS model, used primarily by the NWS, has a warmer and less snow solution. But, this model has yet to be correct in these past storms. The NWS is still using this model for their forecast, hence the lower amounts of snow you are hearing from them. But, the NWS has, since yesterday upped their amounts. A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for northern MD, although I would not be surprised to later see the advisory shifted further south.
My details from yesterday stay the same. I am forecasting on a higher end, and if you have any mixed precip or rain your amounts will be lower.
The next snow system is next week Tues - Thurs. Too early for details. More on that later.
TIMING: The precip will begin in the south and move up the coast. S MD should see precip beginning early Saturday morning through Saturday evening. Central MD a bit later and last longer. The bulk of the precip will be in the early afternoon.
PRECIP TYPE: Should start as snow with possibly a brief period of rain (S MD) in the afternoon. I think central MD will stay snow with maybe some mixed frozen precip in the afternoon. S MD could see another change over to snow later in the evening.
ACCUMULATION: This is a first look and could change. The final amounts will be less depending if you have rain and or mixed precip. By the end of Saturday I see S MD with about 1 - 3" of snow, although the rain will melt some of it with another light batch of snow later in the day adding to the overall total. The metro Baltimore area 2 - 5" with those areas west and far north (MD/PA line) closer to 5 - 6" or so.
I will have another update later tonight if needed. If all looks to be the same I will not update again until Saturday.
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Updated: 2:03 AM GMT on December 29, 2012
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