We are still on track for the storms I have been talking about. It seems all of the data plus all of the other meteorologists I routinely consult are all on board with the storms. This is not a time to panic, but a time to be vigilant, keep an eye on the sky, and know how to protect yourself. Here is a summary of the dynamics:
TIMING: The bulk of the storms will happen after 5:00pm lasting until at least midnight.
THREATS: Heavy rainfall, gusty winds, hail and possible isolated tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center places MD's risks as such: 10% chance for tornadoes; 30% chance for damaging winds; 15% chance for hail.
CONCERN: My main concern is that the bulk of the storms, and any tornado formation, will most likely occur after the sun sets. The problem is it is very hard to see what is happening. Please make sure you have a weather radio and keep it on.
WATCHES/WARNINGS: As of this writing there are no watches/warnings issued. This will probably change. If a "watch" is issued that means conditions are in place for the incident to occur. If a "warning" is issued that means the incident is happening. I foresee the chance for thunderstorm and flood watches/warnings to be issued later today. If tornadoes do happen, a tornado warning will be issued for the impacted area.
DYNAMICS: As I write this a warm front is lifting north out of our area bringing in warm moist air. Later in the day a cold front will head toward us from the NW, bringing in cold air aloft and a change in the upper level winds. The shifting of the winds aids in the possible development of tornadoes (I am being overly simplistic due to space, but if you wish to learn more let me know). Storms will start in advance of the cold front, possibly becoming stronger as the front itself approaches, therefore, the setting of the sun and the cooling of the atmosphere will not necessarily cause the storms to die down.
UPDATES: I will post updates as needed later in the day.
HURRICANE SEASON: In the midst of all of this today, it is also the official start to the hurricane season. My policy is only to post and talk about hurricanes, tropical storms/depressions if they will impact MD. If you need a specific report to coincide with your travels, let me know.
Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for storm updates. My Weather Phone is updated and will be kept up to date as watches/warnings are issued (443-470-9804). Feel free to send me storm reports (wind, hail, damage, etc) and I will forward them to the NWS. If you have any questions leave them here or leave me a message on my Weather Phone.
Friday evening update
I know there are still storms in the metro Baltimore area, but phase 1 has ended and phase 2 storms are already stacking up. Phase 2 is blending with phase 1 for those in Baltimore, hence the flood warning. Phase 2 is another line of strong storms moving in from the west. There is a phase 3 line already formed further west of 2. So, even if the rain stops for a moment, the threats are not over. Phase 3 storms could be strong with damaging winds as they are forming closer to the actual cold front itself.
There have been at least 5 tornado reports I am aware of as well as waterspouts over the Chesapeake. I have seen many reports of flooding, hail and thunderstorm wind damage to trees and buildings.
Continue to follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and send in your storm reports.
Updated: 10:28 PM GMT on June 01, 2012
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