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By: cws6196, 4:09 AM GMT on February 01, 2012
update Friday morning
Just a quick note to say that I am still looking at a chance of snow later this weekend. The NWS has not yet forecasted it, but I would not be surprised if they don't mention it later today. I will have a more complete update a bit later, but I am not convinced this will be anything major. If it happens.
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update Wednesday evening
I hate to say this, but it is still too early to know anything with certainty. The models are not doing a good job with this. One of the issues is with timing; a couple models have precip happening Sunday while others wait until Mon or Tues.
At this moment I would say this is a rain event for most of us, but, there is a part of me that is noticing a trend and a model bias that leads me to believe Sunday could be colder than predicted by the models.
I will have another update Thursday or Friday depending on the data. In any scenario I am not seeing this as a major storm, so even if there is snow it will not be major.
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original post Tuesday evening
I continue to struggle with the forecast for this weekend, and as I was doing my research I came across this quote from the latest edition of the local NWS forecast discussion for meteorologists "FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WEEKEND AND ERY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS DEVELOP A REX BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE GREAT PLAINS". So I don't feel so bad now.
The models, this far out, are doing their usual dance of showing a storm and taking away a storm. Most of today it was taking away the weekend storm, now it is potentially showing it again. This is why, especially this Winter, I do not put stock in long-range forecasting. But, I do feel I need to let you know of impending snow. Thus far this Winter the model data has shown many storms only to take them away a day or so before the event. Could this happen again? It could, although I am not talking about a major storm; and not using the "B" word.
BOTTOM LINE: There remains the possibility for either snow or a wintry mix either Saturday night/Sunday morning, or Sunday night/Monday morning, depending on the model you wish to follow.
MY TAKE: I will play meteorologist and say we have an equal chance for mixed precip or snow late this weekend. Sorry, but that's the best I can say at this moment given it is only Tuesday and this Winter has been difficult to get a snow storm to happen. Maybe I am being too cautious, but I've been excited multiple times this year only to have my hopes dashed.
BUT, I am liking this a bit more then the other chances since there does appear to be a strong High pressure system in Canada, the snow cover to our north will help with the cooling needed, the Bay is cold, the NAO is trending negative. These are factors we have not yet seen this Winter, but essential components for us to see snowfall in MD.
So, I will keep watching this and will keep you posted. I will have another update probably late Wednesday evening. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for posts on the weather and interesting tidbits on the weather from others. I will update my Weather Phone as needed (443-470-9804)
Updated: 1:50 PM GMT on February 03, 2012
By: cws6196, 6:56 PM GMT on January 29, 2012
Well, obviously there is no snow today, as I mentioned in my last post. I was hopeful, but the pattern this Winter has been for the models to show a storm, only to take it away a day or so before the event. Some of the issues we are having is a lack of blocking over Canada, and an El Nino that just wont give up. Although, the warm temps we have been seeing are not record breakers, and for the past many years we have had warm Januarys. Actually, back in 1982-83 we had a similar Winter pattern to what we are currently experiencing, and that February this area had a blizzard. So there is hope.
All this being said, and I hesitate to type this, but the models are again showing a snow storm this coming Saturday. I almost didn't say anything, but I would rather tell you now just in case it does happen. But then again, given the pattern this Winter, we may not see anything. One of the models which has been doing well thus far is showing the storm, and the Farmer's Almanac predicts a snow storm this weekend .... I am not saying this will be a blizzard, nor am I certain we will see snow; but I will be watching and keep you posted. Here is what the local NWS stated in their forecast discussion to local meteorologists: "STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT RGN BY THE WKEND."
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By: cws6196, 4:40 AM GMT on January 26, 2012
Regarding the snow chance this Sunday - not looking good at the moment. The model data is doing its usual flip flopping, but the current data does not support snow for us on Sunday. I do not want to make a forecast based on just the data from today, so will need to see a trend. Although, given some other atmospheric developments, I am leaning toward no snow (once again) for us this weekend. I am not saying it wont happen, and I will continue to monitor this, but I am not hopeful.
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By: cws6196, 2:50 PM GMT on January 24, 2012
Enjoying the fog? This morning should be our last morning to endure the fog. Just a quick note to say that I am still watching the potential for a coastal snow storm the end of this weekend. It is the coastal storms that can bring us large amounts of snow. Many of the factors are in place, and even though I just started mentioning this to you a few days ago, I have been watching this on the models data for about 2 weeks now. That is a long time for the models to keep showing a system. But, not all factors are yet predicted to be in place, and if they don't move into position then we wont have a snow storm. But, if they do, the end of this weekend could be a white one for us. Even the local NWS has mentioned the chance for snow on Sunday in their long-range forecast.
I will have another update later tonight or tomorrow. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and my Weather Phone is updated as needed (443-470-9804).
By: cws6196, 4:53 PM GMT on January 22, 2012
Go Ravens!! As a result of an interaction with a Low pressure system moving to our north, moisture and warm air will move into our area from the south. Since the lower atmosphere and surface are cold, the warm air will rise above the cold air. Once the rain begins and moves through the colder layer it will freeze, hence the creation of freezing rain.
Late tonight, near midnight, those north and west of Baltimore could see a couple hours of freezing rain, turning to all rain by the morning rush hour.
As I often state in my posts, I am not a fan of long-range forecasts, especially this Winter, but I do want to mention the potential for a coastal storm later this coming weekend. I will keep an eye on it, but the potential is there for our first major snow. But, as we have seen this Winter, the model data is not dependable this far out. More later.
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I will post another update later in the week concerning the weekend storm potential. My Weather Phone is updated as needed (443-470-9804).
By: cws6196, 12:24 AM GMT on January 21, 2012
A quick update: it appears the atmosphere is continuing to cool. Therefore, this looks to be more of a snow event and less ice. We could see 3-4 inches of snow.
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see my previous posts for details
According to the model data the system is moving further south and a bit slower. What this means is a longer period of frozen precip and more ice accumulation.
I am now saying we could be looking at 3 inches of snow and a bit more ice. The precip may last into the early afternoon. This will change over to rain, the question is how soon.
I will keep you posted.
Updated: 3:29 AM GMT on January 21, 2012
By: cws6196, 5:13 PM GMT on January 20, 2012
I hope you are all ready for this, cause we will see many different precip types in a short time frame. As I mentioned in my last post, there is a chance for the system to move further south, and the latest data shows that happening. What that means is colder air and a prolonged precip event. Here are the details:
Precip should start around 10:00pm or so and last into most of Saturday morning. If the system continues to drift south the precip will last longer.
Those closer to PA will have more, and those south of Baltimore less (or nothing), but right now I figure 1-2 inches of accumulating snow and about 0.2 inches of accumulating ice. If the system moves further south and or slows, those rates would increase.
The precip should start as sleet, turn to snow past midnight, then return to sleet followed by a period of freezing rain ending with an all rain event. Tiring isnt it....
I will have another update if conditions change drastically. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) for frequent updates and my Weather Phone is and will be updated (443-470-9804)
By: cws6196, 2:28 AM GMT on January 20, 2012
As a cold front moves toward the area tonight there is a chance for those north of Baltimore to see some flurries. This will only happen if the front shifts more to the south. Those in PA will see snow.
The Friday / Saturday event will be mixed precip. Starting sometime after 10 pm Fri the precip should be moving in. Depending on the timing and the temps, we will see snow changing to freezing rain turning to all rain later Saturday morning. Those along the PA line will have a longer period of freezing rain. Most will wake Sat to an icy situation. I am still watching this though as there is an off chance for more snow if this system shifts, although I dont see that happening.
Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and I will have my Weather Phone updated as needed (443-470-9804).
By: cws6196, 5:01 AM GMT on January 19, 2012
Just want to warn you now; snow is in the forecast. But, no need to panic. We could see some snow flurries late Thursday evening and again Saturday morning, but if the snow accumulates it wont be much more than an inch or so. This is only for those around Baltimore City and to the west and north. Those south should see all rain, and those across the PA line should see more snow accumulation, especially on Saturday. More to come on that later.
So, enjoy the scenery in peace. It's the best we're going to get for some time now.
By: cws6196, 1:58 PM GMT on January 18, 2012
First, today will be sunny but cold and quite windy, making the wind chill temp (how it really feels) into the lower 20s. As I have been mentioning in my last few posts, I am watching the possibility of snow early Saturday morning. This is not a major event, and most likely will be mixed precip before changing to all rain, but it bears watching as a slight shift in the front could bring us prolonged cold and thus more snow. Again, nothing major. Monday also has some potential, but I am not looking that far ahead with any certainty just yet.
I will have another update either late tonight or tomorrow. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and my Weather Phone is updated as needed (443-470-9804)
By: cws6196, 3:30 PM GMT on January 16, 2012
Tomorrow will be a day of rain, starting after midnight tonight. The only reason I am mentioning this is because those north and west of Baltimore could see sleet or even snow overnight before the precip turns to all rain. No accumulation, but in case anyone is awake after Midnight I didn't want you to panic if you saw snow. By early morning the temps will be warm enough for all rain.
For snow lovers, stop reading this post. The official long-range forecast data predicts our area having mild temps with little precip. I am not a fan of long-range forecasting, but this appears in line with what we have been seeing thus far this Winter. I am not saying we wont see any snow, but a major snow storm will be hard to get this Winter. As I have been saying, if we have any major storm, it wont be until the end of the month into Feb. That said, there is potential for this weekend for us to see some mixed precip. More on that later.
No matter the weather, follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and my Weather Phone is updated as needed (443-470-9804)
By: cws6196, 3:36 AM GMT on January 14, 2012
Well, true to form for us this Winter, the models showed snow, now the reality - no snow. The systems will not be close enough to us to produce snow, and the lower layers of the atmosphere will be too dry to sustain snow even if it were to happen. So, yet again, we await snow another day.
By: cws6196, 5:06 PM GMT on January 12, 2012
Looking at the latest data, I think what I have previously posted remains valid. The cold front moves through later tonight, dropping temps by more than 10 degrees. The precip will happen around midnight and end 7'ish or so in the morning. As I previously mentioned, timing and temps are the main variables, but it does look like there will be snow falling, primarily west and north of Baltimore (sorry Southern MD). For most, snow accumulations should be a dusting or a bit more, but some could see an inch or so. For me, what is keeping the accumulations at bay is today's high temps and wet ground (plus lack of substantive moisture in this system for us).
Regarding Sunday, I still see a snow event, but still don't have much in the way of details. But, lest anyone run out to the grocery stores, any snow Sunday will not be a major event.
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By: cws6196, 2:51 PM GMT on January 11, 2012
As I look at the data, timing and temps are the question marks for the next couple days. Those living west and north of Baltimore have a better chance of seeing flurries, but that doesn't mean the rest of you are out of the woods.
Today we will have rain later in the afternoon into the evening, heavy at times. But, depending on the temps and timing, the precip may be mixed (wet snow, sleet) before turning over to all rain. Then, Thursday evening into Friday morning there could be a burst of snow flurries, with little to no accumulations. If it does stick, it would be a dusting in most parts, and only on grassy, non-road surfaces. But, given the exact timing Friday morning, the commute may be interesting.
As to the weekend, I am still watching the possibility of a snow event later in the weekend, possibly Sunday into Monday. But that is still a number of days away, so more details on that later.
As always, follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and I will update my Weather Phone as needed (443-470-9804).
By: cws6196, 1:53 PM GMT on January 10, 2012
I hope those who had snow enjoyed the view. For most if was just a dusting, but at this point I will take what I can get. Just wanted to post a quick message about this coming MLK weekend. As I posted a few days ago, I do see potential for a "snow event". I call it that since right now I really am not too sure what will happen. It is too far out, plus the model data outputs thus far this Winter have been quite inconsistent. Although, it is worth watching since the air is cooling and the La Nina is weakening. In an uncharacteristic move, even the local NWS has posted a chance for snow in their long-range forecast. I will continue to watch this and will keep you posted.
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By: cws6196, 5:00 PM GMT on January 08, 2012
update Sunday evening Jan 8
Just a quick update regarding Monday evening into Tuesday: as I see it, most will not see snow, but those north of Baltimore could see flurries, primarily after midnight into Tuesday morning. Accumulations, if any, would be a dusting. If things change drastically I will let you know.
original post Sunday Jan 8 morning
The snow is on the way, just not yet. The disturbances I previously mentioned don't appear to be snow threats for most of us for many reasons, but let me say this:
1. Those in S MD have a very slight (very slight) chance to see some snow flakes late tonight as a system moves through the area. Depending on the timing and the cold air in place, there could be flakes without significant accumulation.
2. The Baltimore area could (and I stress "could") see some snow Monday evening into Tuesday morning. The chances are unlikely, but some of the data shows a system from the south moving northward. Depending on how far north it moves, and cold air in place, will determine what happens with the precip. My thinking at this time is nothing will happen, but it will need to be watched.
The system mid week will be all rain for us, no snow. I am still watching MLK weekend for another system, but it is too far away for me to have any certainty. I still stand by my initial statements I have been making for some time now that we wont see any major snow until the end of January / beginning of Feb.
I will have another update late tonight regarding the Monday evening situation. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and my Weather Phone is updated as needed (443-470-9804).
Updated: 5:01 AM GMT on January 09, 2012
By: cws6196, 6:45 PM GMT on January 06, 2012
Just a quick note to mention that I am watching 2 systems, one Sun-Mon and the other around the middle of next week. A third time frame, too far out for me to have any certainty, is around Martin Luther King day. But for now, let's focus on the first two. I will have a more full update over the weekend. "IF" anything happens Sun-Mon it will most likely resemble the last couple days of light snow.
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By: cws6196, 4:49 AM GMT on January 03, 2012
Just a quick note to let everyone know that this week will be the coldest we have yet seem this season. As a result of the cold air and a number of upper atmosphere disturbances, those west and north of Baltimore could see scattered snow flurries over the next couple days. With the exception of those along and north of the MD/PA, there should not be any accumulation. I continue to stand by my prediction that we will not see a major snowfall until at least the end of January into February.
Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and I have my Weather Phone updated as needed (443-470-9804).