Central MD Weather Conditions

New Year

By: cws6196, 1:05 AM GMT on January 01, 2012

Wishing everyone a blessed, happy and peace-filled New Year!! I appreciate your support and patience this year and look forward to a hopefully exciting, yet safe, weather year.

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light flurries N Maryland

By: cws6196, 8:19 PM GMT on December 31, 2011

I hope everyone is enjoying the mild temps. The clouds and wind shift have cooled the temps a bit though.

I am posting to let those west and north of Baltimore know the chance for scattered flurries Monday into Monday evening. This will resemble the flurries of the other day. A dusting is the most accumulation you will see.

I dont see us experiencing major snows until later in January, although the models hint of snow this coming Thursday (I am not convinced though).

Enjoy the rest of your New Years Eve. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd).

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UPDATE re Maryland snow

By: cws6196, 5:55 PM GMT on December 29, 2011

Surprise! For those in Carroll Co and Northern Baltimore Co, it is snowing .... but nothing will stick. Actually, for those in Northern Baltimore Co you could see random snow showers now through Saturday as a few clippers move to our north over the next few days. But, as I said, no accumulations.

As I stated in my last post, I was watching snow potential for this weekend, but I also stated in that post that I didn't really think it would happen. Well, that is true. We will not see any snow for the immediate future (beside what I just mentioned above). The strength of the La Nina is the largest reason for this snow dry spell for us. But, for those who want snow, it appears the La Nina will begin to weaken near the end of January, giving us hope for snow in February. Until then, no major snow storms for us.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and I will keep my Weather Phone updated as needed (443-470-9804)

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UPDATE on snow in MD

By: cws6196, 4:10 PM GMT on December 26, 2011

I hope everyone had a wonderful holiday weekend! Looking at the snow chances, and once again I see it as a bust. If we look historically at this Fall/Winter we see a pattern wherein the model data shows great storms brewing for us only to dissolve into either nothing or rain. This is due in part to the La Nina as well as the positive NAO. Until the La Nina weakens and the NAO goes negative, we will not see any major snow falls for the area.

That said, tomorrow will be a rain day with a slight (slight) chance for those north and west of Baltimore to see some mixed precip later in the day if the temps don't warm. But any wintry precip will not stick. The next "chance" for wintry weather is this coming weekend, but as I will be watching it, I am not at all confident anything will come of it. I hope I am wrong, but history is on my side.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and my Weather Phone will be updated as needed (443-470-9804).

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Merry Christmas & snow

By: cws6196, 4:51 PM GMT on December 25, 2011

Wishing everyone a very Merry and Peace-filled Christmas!! Even though it is green for us, enjoy the weather of this wonderful day!! I will have a more detailed report later, but I am still not convinced of us seeing any snow this coming week, even though some of the data supports snow.

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a white New Years?

By: cws6196, 3:17 PM GMT on December 23, 2011

As I had forecast, no snow is going to happen for us on Christmas. The concerns I voiced have come true, blocking this system from bringing us a white Christmas. But, there is a chance (slight) for a white New Years for us. From this coming Wed through New Year's Eve there is some data indicating a possible coastal storm for us. Some of the concerns I previously voiced about Christmas are not in place this time, increasing our chance (not a guarantee).

Honestly I am not yet sold on this, but see more potential now than I previously had. This does not look like it will effect S MD, but too early to say for sure. I will keep watching this, but as Christmas approaches and this possibility is many days away, I will not post frequent updates, but will be watching it.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and I will keep my Weather Phone updated as needed (443-470-9804)

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Thurs UPDATE on Christmas snow in MD

By: cws6196, 5:05 AM GMT on December 22, 2011

I have been looking over the data, climatology, history, forecast discussions, etc, and as I have been saying all along, I am not convinced we will see snow for Christmas in Central or Southern MD. The model data is still somewhat all over the place, but I continue to see a movement whereby the Low will either not form, or be too far off the coast to bring us anything. Two major factors include the positive NAO and the La Nina (both of which I mentioned a couple of posts ago). As much as I want snow, I just don't see it.

I will continue to watch this though, and I do see a very slight (very slight) chance for those west and north of Baltimore to see something very early Christmas morning. But unless there is a major shift in the data, or Mother Nature has other plans, I just see it as being cold, damp and wet for some. This is how our Winter will be ...

I will post more updates as needed, but follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and my Weather Phone is updated as needed (443-470-9804)

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UPDATE Christmas snow

By: cws6196, 3:37 PM GMT on December 20, 2011

update Tues morning 20th
It's still too far out to say for sure what will happen, and the model data is not helping. The concerns I posted yesterday remain. Here is how it looks at the moment:

1. Friday morning rain chance
2. Saturday afternoon into the evening either starting as rain and then mixing with snow, or all snow into Sunday morning (Christmas Day)
3. Tues or so of next week there is another chance for snow according to the models.

What is happening is a serious of Low pressure systems moving into the area with a cold front dropping down. The issue, as is always the case for us, is the position of the track of the Low. As a Low pressure system spins counter clockwise, it's path determines the air and moisture it pulls into the area. For us to see a heavy snow event we need the Low just off the coast, therefore drawing in ocean moisture and drawing down cold air (imagine the counter clockwise spin). If the Low is too far off the coast it's spin has little effect on us. Too far inland and Western MD gets snow while Central MD sees rain as the spin draws up warmer southern air. So for this forecast the issue is the position of the Low, and currently the model data has that all over the place. A feature which keeps the Low in an ideal spot for us is a High pressure system in place in Nova Scotia. The clockwise spin of the High can keep the Low hugging the coast where snow lovers like it. Without that blocking High the Low has a tendency to move further out to sea (this is what I mean when I talk about either a positive or negative NAO. The latter refers to the blocking High. Currently we have a positive NAO). I hope this explanation helps.

At this time I see those west and north of Baltimore seeing some snow Saturday evening. Those in Southern MD should see all rain. BUT I am still watching this as any shift in the Low could bring us an all snow event with the potential for multiple inches of accumulation. But for now I am not ready to say that will happen.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and I will keep my Weather Phone updated as needed (443-470-9804).

original post Monday 19th

Who here would like a white Christmas? I know I do, just not sure it will happen. I am writing though as some data for the past couple days has been hinting at snow chances this coming weekend. The chances look to be Friday through Sunday. I am NOT saying it will snow, but I am saying we need to be aware to the possibility. The local NWS, in their discussion to meteorologists this morning wrote: "MODELS MAY BE TRENDING TOWARDS MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT FOR NOW...NO CHANGES WERE MADE PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT." This statement is the closest we will get this far out, but it does say a lot for them to even post that this early out.

My main issues with not jumping on this today is:

1. It is too far out, and historically this season has been one where model data looks impressive, then turns into a dusting for MD
2. We are still in a La Nina pattern, not typically good for snow for us.
3. The NAO is still trending positive and we need for it to be negative. There is some indication this may happen by this weekend, but forecast data on the NAO is not overly accurate more than a couple days out.

So the bottom line - I am keeping an eye on this and will keep you posted. No need to either rejoice nor panic, but don't be surprised if later in the week I talk about snow for us.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and I will update my Weather Phone as needed (443-470-9804).

Updated: 3:38 PM GMT on December 20, 2011

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snow potential for MD exists

By: cws6196, 2:07 PM GMT on December 19, 2011

Who here would like a white Christmas? I know I do, just not sure it will happen. I am writing though as some data for the past couple days has been hinting at snow chances this coming weekend. The chances look to be Friday through Sunday. I am NOT saying it will snow, but I am saying we need to be aware to the possibility. The local NWS, in their discussion to meteorologists this morning wrote: "MODELS MAY BE TRENDING TOWARDS MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT FOR NOW...NO CHANGES WERE MADE PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT." This statement is the closest we will get this far out, but it does say a lot for them to even post that this early out.

My main issues with not jumping on this today is:

1. It is too far out, and historically this season has been one where model data looks impressive, then turns into a dusting for MD
2. We are still in a La Nina pattern, not typically good for snow for us.
3. The NAO is still trending positive and we need for it to be negative. There is some indication this may happen by this weekend, but forecast data on the NAO is not overly accurate more than a couple days out.

So the bottom line - I am keeping an eye on this and will keep you posted. No need to either rejoice nor panic, but don't be surprised if later in the week I talk about snow for us.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and I will update my Weather Phone as needed (443-470-9804).

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will we ever see snow?

By: cws6196, 10:43 PM GMT on December 15, 2011

update Sat evening
Just a quick note to mention that snow has started to fall in Carroll Co and southern PA. I don't see this accumulating more than a dusting for those that see snow. Those along the state border should see the most while S MD is out of the running this time.

Enjoy the ambiance!

original post
Will we ever see snow? In time, yes. I am posting though because those in S MD could see some snow flakes this weekend as a Low travels up from NC. The Low itself should not come far enough N to cause us issues, but with night temps below freezing any precip will fall as snow. But I dont see any accumulation.

A big "IF" the storm moves further N than S MD could see a few inches. But I dont see this happening. Those in Central MD are in the clear, unless the storm moves further N.

There are many climate factors currently at work keeping the precip and snow away from us for now. It looks like a green Christmas for us. But, since weather has a mind of its own at times, I will keep an eye on this.

Updated: 10:36 PM GMT on December 17, 2011

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Tues evening snow update

By: cws6196, 5:05 AM GMT on December 07, 2011

Wed evening update

Well everyone, for most of us this was a bust. The Low moved in fast, faster then the cold air could meet up with it, therefore the rain did not change over for most of us. Those nearer the MD/PA saw accumulation as did far western MD. As I stated in my previous posts, I had concerns about this storm, and days ago I stated I wasn't convinced anything would happen. Well, for those who don't like snow, you won.

I will say though that this Winter should prove to be a difficult one to forecast as many of our snow storms will be of this type. We are entering a La Nina pattern, typically for us that means warmer temps and less precip. So when snow looks to be probable, we could have repeats of today. This is not to say we wont get snow this Winter; all I am saying is the forecasting will not be easy.

I appreciate your sticking with me on this forecast and I look forward to the next snow event. Way too early to say, but there are hints of another shot at snow around the 19th. Don't hold me to that......

Even in calm boring weather, continue to follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd).

original post
Nothing much to add as the forecast continues to be on track with what I have been saying. The storm seems to be moving quickly, so that will keep the snow accumulations down a bit, but if the Low slows or shifts it's track to the NE then our snow amounts will increase. I am looking for Central MD to see about an inch or so while those along the MD/PA line to see a couple inches. Those in Southern MD will have an all rain event.

The turn over to snow is dependent upon how quickly the air cools, but roughly around midnight or so Wednesday into Thursday, ending before the morning commute. The ground is still warm as are the roads, and with the rain falling, much of the snow will melt. Therefore, factoring in the timing of the cooling of the air with the wet warm ground, final accumulation rates will vary and are hard to forecast. But don't expect this to be a major snowfall for us in Central MD.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and my Weather Phone is updated (443-470-9804)

Updated: 4:48 AM GMT on December 08, 2011

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snow is coming

By: cws6196, 2:35 AM GMT on December 06, 2011

update Tues afternoon
A quick look at the current data shows my forecast is still on track. The concerns I posted last night remain unresolved. It does appear though that the timing may need to be increased, thus the changeover to snow may occur a bit sooner Wed evening, but with the speed of the Low I don't think it will change my totals. Keep in mind that the snow which falls will be heavy wet snow. I will have a more detailed update late tonight.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and my Weather Phone is updated (443-470-9804). Feel free to leave a voice message with questions and/or snow totals.

original post
"Bring it on!" After reviewing more data and other factors, I am convinced we will see snow mid week. As much as I am sure we will see snow, I am not as yet sure as to the accumulation amounts. Here is what is happening.

TIMING

Rain should change over to snow late Wednesday evening close to Midnight and continue into Thursday morning. Timing is not exact due to data differences and temp issues.

DYNAMICS

As a cold front moves in, an area of Low pressure moves from the SW heading toward the Atlantic. As the Low moves its counter clockwise spin will pull in warm moist air, then as the Low passes to the NNE, the spin will draw in cold air from the N and moisture from the Atlantic. Timing and strength of the Low will help to determine the amount of snow.

ACCUMULATION

At this time I am looking at snow accumulation rates of around 2 - 4 inches for the Baltimore area. More around the MD/PA line and less, or nothing, in Southern MD. There are still some uncertainties which will effect the accumulation. I hate to sound fickle, but depending on the outcomes of the factors below, the rates could be more like 1 - 6+ inches. But, for now I will stick with my 2 - 4.

CONCERNS

1. This will start with rain and warm temps, so how quickly the temps cool will determine how long it will snow. The warm wet ground will melt the first flakes.
2. The exact path of the Low will determine the temps and precip type.
3. Most of the data predicts the Low will move through quickly, but if it slows the accumulation rate could increase.

I will have another update late Tuesday, sooner if there is a major change. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and I have my Weather Phone updated (443-470-9804).

Updated: 5:16 PM GMT on December 06, 2011

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Update on the snow chance for later in the week

By: cws6196, 5:12 AM GMT on December 05, 2011

Not an easy forecast to make, so I am glad there are some days left to sort it out. The NWS has taken off the mention of snow in their long range forecast, but in their recent meteorologist discussion they stated: "CONFIDENCE IN WED/THU FORECAST IS LOW. BUT THERMAL PROFILE MAY BE COLD ENUF TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW MIXING IN...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED NIGHT." Meaning, they are uncertain about how well their current Wed/Thurs forecast will fair given the uncertainty of the data. Before people get upset with the NWS, keep in mind that they are an agency with protocols in place to ensure standards in forecasting since they are the official forecast and many people depend on them. Also, they cannot make unsubstantiated predictions which may panic people necessarily. Therefore, their forecasts are more conservative. I on the other hand can be a bit more liberal in my predictions. So this is why the NWS may not always predict snow until the last moment, even though I, and others, have seen it for days previous.

All that said to make my point that even though the official forecast does not yet call for snow, the NWS has been trending their temps downward for the end of the week, and do appear to be extending the precip possibility a bit later into the week as well. What I currently see is a snow chance somewhere between Wed - Fri. But this is only a chance, and I am not as yet sold on this solution. Here are some concerns of mine:

1. Will the temps drop enough for the precip to turn to snow?
2. What will the exact position of the Low be? Currently the Low is predicted to ride along the coast. For a substantial snowfall we need the Low to move just off of the coast.
3. Are the ground temps cold enough to sustain accumulations?
4. Will the NAO go negative?

These are my top concerns, and unless they are answered favorably, we will be looking at some cold rain the end of the week. I will say though that the current data trend has the Low in a position where DC, Balt, Philly could see snow, leaving most of S. MD with either rain or nothing. But a slight shift of the Low to the east and we get a better shot at snow, even for S MD. That's if the precip and the cold air are in place at the same time. That is yet to be seen. The model data is all over the place, so I don't want to just look at that, but also recognize how our current surface conditions can effect what will happen. And the fact that Monday and possibly Wed will be unseasonably warm don't bode well for snow development Wed night into Thurs. Not to say it cant happen.

So, bottom line, I do see a possibility for snow later in the week, but am just not as yet convinced of it. I know many of you want a definitive, but I hope, through this discussion, you can appreciate the bind I am in. Give me another day or so and I will have more definitive language for you, whether or not the NWS picks up on this.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and I will update my Weather Phone as needed (443-470-9804)

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Sunday quick update

By: cws6196, 5:20 PM GMT on December 04, 2011

Just wanted to mention that I will have a more detailed update late today, but this morning the NWS has added a chance of snow for later in the week. Hmmm....have they been sneaking a peek at my postings? They are saying Saturday, but I imagine they will back that up a couple days, and I am looking at moving my snow days up a bit (possibly, since the system may be slowing. More on that later).

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd).

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UPDATE Sat on snow potential in MD

By: cws6196, 11:13 PM GMT on December 03, 2011

Just wanted to give a brief update on the snow potential for the mid-week. This is not an easy forecast to make as there seems to be some data consistency, but in terms of factors needed for snow, such as a negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation, basically a northern High keeping the cold air in the area), the data is inconsistent. What I do know is there will be precip Tuesday into Wednesday, heavy at times. If the NAO goes negative and the timing of the precip corresponds to the entering Low, then we could see snow. IF it were to snow some areas would see a dusting while others 5 or so inches. But this is way too soon to talk about accumulation when I am still not convinced it will snow. Although I will say I am becoming more convinced, but not there just yet.

In their published forecast discussion to meteorologists, the local NWS wrote: "GUIDANCE STILL OFFERING LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN OR INTER-MODEL CONSISTENCY...THUS MID-WEEK FCST IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE." The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, in their forecast discussion wrote: "THIS WOULD SUGGEST SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ORIENTATION OF THE CONUS TROF BY MID-LATE WEEK." Therefore, this forecast is not yet solid. This is in part due to this being only December and in part to a weak La Nina.

I will continue to post updates, and as we get closer I will offer my forecast. But for now, just know there is the potential for snow mid week. If you would like to be on my weather email list let me know.

Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and I will update my Weather Phone as needed (443-470-9804)

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Update on snow potential next week

By: cws6196, 2:07 PM GMT on December 02, 2011

I am still watching the conditions for next week, and as I am still not convinced we will have snow, I am starting to believe why feel we will. That statement is forecast code for "who knows what will happen". But, even the NWS is now getting into this as this have just extended the precip forecast to now include Wed, previously dry according to them. This is important as the snow potential was always more so for Tues evening into Wed. The model data has been somewhat consistent over time which is also making me concerned that there could be something here. But of course it is too far out for much certainty.

The issue is with timing. There is cold air currently in place, and the data calls for cold air to move down from Canada mid week, just as the precip moves in. Here are the issues effecting the precip type:

1. Does the precip enter the area at the same time as the cold air?
2. Does the precip ride along the Appalachians or the coast? If the latter, what is the position of the Low as that will help to dictate the precip type.

Thus far, my best forecast is that the Low will travel up the coast, but fairly close to the coast, thereby limiting the snow amount, or giving us mixed precip. I am leaning at this time to a solution that says mixed precip with snow falling on the backside of the Low, limiting accumulations. "Worst" case, a coastal Low over the Atlantic which could then bring us 5+ inches. Hence the exact position of the Low, and my hesitancy this far out, should be evident.

I will have another update over the weekend. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and I will update my Weather Phone as needed (443-470-9804)

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About cws6196

I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.

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AKDOT Parks Highway @ Talkeetna Road MP 98.3
Talkeetna, AK
Elevation: 393 ft
Temperature: 49.0 °F
Dew Point: 21.0 °F
Humidity: 32%
Wind: 1.0 mph from the SSE
Wind Gust: 4.0 mph
Updated: 7:51 PM AKDT on April 17, 2014

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