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By: cws6196, 2:54 AM GMT on October 28, 2011
Sat evening update
The "storm" is winding down and the accumulation was primarily to the north and west of Baltimore. Tonight we will see gusting winds and very cold temps. Be careful when walking or driving as there is a chance for scattered ice to form.
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Sat afternoon update
Looking at the current observations it appears my initial forecast is holding true, namely that this storm not a major issue for us in Central MD, rather, for those in Western MD and PA north.
DYNAMICS: The Low off the coast will continue to move north toward MA. Currently the flow of the Low is preventing much of the colder air to move into the area. Actually, some temps have increased. Those receiving a mix of precip will see a change to all rain and then a period of no precip. As the Low moves north of MD though, the return flow will allow for the cold air to move in and we could then see a return to snow for the Baltimore area. All precip should end by about 7:00pm or so.
ACCUMULATION: As I have been saying, about an inch or so in the Baltimore area, more toward the MD/PA line (4 or more) and in Carroll Co west you could see more than 4 inches. Accumulation will mainly be on the grassy areas and not last long.
OUTLOOK: Just wanted to mention that the pattern we are seeing today, snow west and north of Baltimore is the predicted Winter pattern for us. Western MD and PA will most likely see the bulk of the snow this Winter with Baltimore experiencing a "normal", average snowfall (upper teens).
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Sat morning update
The mixed precip has begun west, north and northeast of Baltimore. The mixed precip will slowly shift to the east. In another couple hours the rain will turn to all snow. Still looking at a couple inches of accumulation possible.
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Fri afternoon update
Just a quick update: I am sticking with what I have stated previously, although my concern is we could see more snow then expected. But, I'm not yet changing my accumulation rates.
The reason for my concern is the temps. My original rationale for no accumulation was based on surface atmosphere and ground temps too high to sustain accumulating snow. But, the temps, as I write this, are now cooler than expected and will not be rising. So, with cooler then expected temps we are starting out with a better chance for accumulations. Also, as the rain/snow continues to fall, the moisture will bring down cooler upper air, and through the process of evaporation will also cool the lower atmosphere. All of this dynamic cooling, plus starting with cooler temps, gives me concern that we could see more snow accumulating than I am predicting. I will continue to monitor and keep you posted.
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Fri morning update
I still stand by my forecast dynamics, but must admit to more accumulation than previously thought. There will be more moisture which will cool the surface as well as the ground more so than I first thought (according to recent model trending).
I do see areas north of Baltimore as seeing around 5 inches; while Baltimore south about 2, with all rain in Southern MD.
My Weather Phone is updated and you can follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd).
As I mentioned in my original post, this is not an easy forecast regarding snow Saturday. I also mentioned that the position of the Low and trough will influence what we experience. See my original posts for details on dynamics.
TIMING: Most will see precip after 2:00am Saturday until late morning, then again later afternoon into the early evening.
PRECIP TYPE: Those east and north of Baltimore are more likely to see snow Saturday morning and later afternoon. The rest of the area could see mixed precip. For everyone though this is not an all snow event. Snow that falls will be wet heavy snow.
ACCUMULATION: I have been stating there would not be any accumulation, and I still see this as the primary scenerio. But, there have been some data changes indicating colder air, stronger Low a bit closer to the coast. What this means is there could be some accumulation, especially in Northern Balt Co. IF there is accumulation it wont be much, couple inches or less. Let me emphasize that I doubt there will be accumulation, but I am open to the possibilty if some of the data comes true.
I will post updates as needed. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and my Weather Phone remains updated.
Updated: 10:53 PM GMT on October 29, 2011
By: cws6196, 4:24 AM GMT on October 26, 2011
update Thurs evening
The NWS has now agreed with me and added snow to Saturday's forecast. I will have another update later.
update Wednesday night
I promised an update to my previous forecast, but to be honest, I still agree with what I wrote, so no update is needed. If there are any changes needed to my forecast I will post an update.
Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and my Weather Phone is updated (443-470-9804).
The situation this weekend concerning snow for the area is both an easy and a difficult forecast to make. Easy in that I do not at all see any accumulation of snow happening anywhere in MD save for the higher elevations of Western MD. This is a difficult forecast due to timing and precip type.
As I previously posted, a cold front and a strong jet stream with an accompanying trough are the major players in the forecast, add to this a possible Low coming up the coast. So there will be moisture in the atmosphere with an intrusion of cold air. But, given this time of the year, not all of the layers of the atmosphere will be cool, and the ground is not yet cold enough to support accumulation. If this were January or February, you bet I would be excited!
BOTTOM LINE: As I see it now, early Saturday morning and again Saturday evening are prime times for us to see snow flakes. The temps will be just around freezing and there should be enough moisture in the atmosphere. Areas in Northern Baltimore Co and across the PA line should see the snow, while those around Baltimore City and south could see a mixed precip event. But no accumulation. Rain that does occur on Saturday should be light and somewhat scattered.
CAUTION: I will need to keep monitoring this as any change in the positions of the coastal Low or trough will change who sees snow and who doesn't, but I still stand by my no accumulation forecast.
I will have another update late Wednesday. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and I will update my Weather Phone as conditions warrant (443-470-9804).
Updated: 11:07 PM GMT on October 27, 2011
By: cws6196, 1:51 AM GMT on October 25, 2011
I will have a detailed update Tues evening to give me more time to study data trends. Given this time of the year, seasonal transition, forecasting precip type is complicated. Yes, there is potential for snow to fall later this Friday, but no need to run to the store just yet.
Briefly, a strong jet stream is setting up a trough ("U" shape) to our west which will allow for below freezing temps to filter into the area while a Low moves up the coast bringing in moisture.
The question is not only precip type (rain, snow, mix) but where the dividing line will be. Therefore I will wait to say more late Tues., but even if there is snow we will not have any accumulation.
By: cws6196, 12:59 AM GMT on October 24, 2011
Just a quick to post to let you know I am watching a potential storm system to effect us near the end of the week. Too early for accuracy in a forecast so I will have a more detailed post in a couple days. But at this point some may see "white stuff" falling from the sky.
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By: cws6196, 3:01 AM GMT on October 18, 2011
What I have stated in my previous posts on the mid-week storm continue to hold true. We will experience an extra tropical event Wednesday which will bring us copious amounts of rain.
TIMING: It appears the rains will begin late Tuesday, starting in Southern MD and moving northward. Rain should be out of the area Thursday morning.
EFFECTS: We could see 1 - 2 inches of rain by the end of Wednesday with locally heavier amounts. We can also expect strong wind gusts, and even though the rain will end Thursday morning, the wind will continue through most of the day Thursday. There could be scattered thunderstorms with some isolated severe cells.
The end of the week we will see wind and cold temps into the weekend. I would not be surprised to see the NWS issue flash flood statements as well as high wind advisories. I will keep you updated if that happens.
Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and I will update my Weather Phone as needed (443-470-9804).
By: cws6196, 4:10 PM GMT on October 15, 2011
First, today will be a nice day with decent temps and clear skies, but quite windy with strong gusts. The wind will last through the evening.
The storm coming mid week continues to show on the model data, but the exact path is still unknown. Come the beginning of the week we will see a cold front moving into the area with a Low developing and moving up the east coast. There is currently an area of interest in the tropics, and this may become the Low that moves up the coast. This Low combined with other atmospheric conditions could lead to the storms mid week.
So what does all this mean for us? The biggest threat for us will be heavy rain Tues into Wed with accumulations over an inch. We could also see strong wind and the possibility for isolated thunderstorms. Some are still talking about snow, but I don't see that happening for Central nor Southern MD. The temp gradient in Western MD east toward Carroll Co could support snow, but I'm not sure the ground in Carroll Co is yet cold enough to support accumulation.
Bottom line, we are in for some heavy rain and wind mid week. Of course, any change in the timing of the fronts and the exact path of the Low will change what we experience, therefore I am still monitoring this and will let you know what is happening. I will have another update late Sunday.
Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and I will update my Weather Phone as needed (443-470-9804).
By: cws6196, 9:55 PM GMT on October 14, 2011
Just a quick note to say I am watching the potential for a large storm system to impact us next week. This is the same system I mentioned a couple days when I talked about the "S" word, but no worries, this storm will not bring us snow.
I will have another update over the weekend after I analyze more of the data.
By: cws6196, 1:45 PM GMT on October 13, 2011
Yes, I again used the "S" word .... But, no one panic or go shopping just yet. I only mention snow as you may hear some grumblings in the media or online about a Nor'easter next week and the first snowfall. I have been tracking the model data on this system, and as most of you know, I am not a fan of long-range forecasting based on individual model data. This far out, the end of next week, gives the models time to move storm systems all over the place as the data is updated and current conditions are added to the data set (if anyone is interested in more detail on this just let me know).
The bottom line: I do not see Central nor Southern MD seeing any snow next week. If the Nor'easter does form, it looks to be more of a northern concern (central and eastern PA and points north) and/or Western MD into the Appalachians. "Could" the Baltimore area see a few flakes fall next week in the wee hours of the night? I guess, but you would have to look closely before they melted.
All in all, I believe we are safe from the "S" word for a number of weeks. I will keep monitoring and will let you know of any changes. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and I will update the Weather Phone as needed (443-470-9804).
By: cws6196, 3:38 AM GMT on October 10, 2011
Still watching the developing tropical situation just east of FL at the moment, although it does not look likely that this system will form into a tropical storm and definitely not a hurricane. The model data is still not consistent with the track of this Low, so timing and intensity will need to be updated as time progresses. But, I do see us seeing the rain effects from this system come mid-week.
Come early Wednesday morning Southern MD should start to see some of the rain, with Central MD feeling it closer to noon or so. The models, although differing in the path and timing, do seem to show the most intense rains to effect Howard Co into Baltimore Co and over the PA line. There is the possibility for all of us to see rain accumulations of close to an inch with locally heavier rainfalls.
As this system moves into the area it will draw the Atlantic moisture over us, thus producing thick cloud cover. Therefore, expect temps to be dropping as the week moves on. After Wednesday I see some Lows move into the area from the NW, thus bringing more rain chance through the weekend and a considerable drop in the temps.
I will keep you posted on this event as the timing and intensity are better realized. Follow me daily on Twitter (@wxmanmd) and I will update the Weather Phone as needed (443-470-9804).
By: cws6196, 5:03 PM GMT on October 08, 2011
I am waiting for the system off the FL coast to develop more before providing another forecast impact for MD. I see the NWS has now forecasted rain for Wed, in line with what I have been saying. The National Hurricane Center has identifed the area near FL so now the wait begins.
I will keep you posted.
By: cws6196, 5:11 PM GMT on October 06, 2011
I know you all haven't heard from me in some time, but that's due to the boring weather we are having. Most of you call this "wonderful" and "beautiful", while I call it "boring". But, no matter what we call it, the temps will be on the rise each day and no rain for the near future.
I am writing as there is a disturbance in the tropics showing up on the models, so wanted to let you all know about it. The model data shows a tropical system forming off the eastern FL coast in a few days, then tracking north up the East Coast of the US. This should not become a named storm, but depending on the actual track, we could see heavy rainfall from Wednesday into the weekend. Details are still sketchy, but I am following this and will keep you posted.
Feel free to follow me on Twitter for daily posts (@wxmanmd) and my Weather Phone is updated as needed (443-470-9804).