I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.
By: cws6196, 2:16 AM GMT on July 30, 2011
Let me start out by saying "this is too soon" to say much, but I do want to draw our attention to the tropics and an area of interest (called an "invest"). The model data shows the potential for this to develop and possibly head toward FL or the East Coast.
But, it is way too early for any certainty, although worth watching. I will keep you posted if we need to be concerned. Here is the link to the latest model data: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at20 1191_ensmodel.html
By: cws6196, 4:20 AM GMT on July 18, 2011
Since the weather has been so exciting lately I haven't found the need to post updates (sarcasm). But seriously, for those who love the heat, this is the week for you. But first, a quick mention about our new Tropical Storm Bret. All the model data indicate Bret will not in any way effect us in MD. A look at the steering winds, etc convinces me we are safe from this one, but of course I will keep an eye on it for any indication of a change closer to the coast. Not that I anticipate it.
Back to this week. Monday will be warmer then Sunday, with the end of the week into the weekend having the highest temps thus far this Summer. Generally speaking, each day should get warmer, with no substantial break until later Sunday. A cold front does move through the area early Tuesday, but wont change the temps much, and as it leaves the area a Bermuda high kicks in.
Storms are possible late evening Monday into Tuesday with the best chances early Tuesday morning. The main threat from these storms are heavy rain and wind. Beginning with Thursday into the weekend, afternoon storms are possible each day due to the heating of the air and the humidity. More on those as the week progresses.
I will keep the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated as needed and will continue my daily posts on Twitter (@wxmanmd).
By: cws6196, 4:43 AM GMT on July 12, 2011
The NWS has issued a Heat Advisory for Tuesday (see below). There were unofficial reports of a tornado in Aberdeen last night, when I have final reports I will forward them to you. Those storms formed partly as a result of the heating of the day as the heat and moisture helped to create an unstable atmosphere. I mention this because today looks to be the same scenario. It will be in the 90s with high humidity levels. Storms should start to fire up later in the afternoon into the evening. These storms could be severe.
I will keep the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated as well as my Twitter (@wxmanmd).
By: cws6196, 1:57 PM GMT on July 08, 2011
First, let me speak a moment about the tropics. For those who have been reading my posts for some time know two things: one, I don't talk about the tropics unless they may impact MD, and two, I don't like long-range forecasting. That said, I do want to mention that I am watching a new development in the Gulf. This is currently classified as an area of interest, and if it develops (big "if"), the model trending has it leaving the Gulf and heading up FL and then along the Atlantic coast. The trending has it somewhat inland along the coast, so I am NOT in any way saying we will be hit with a hurricane or tropical storm, but what I am saying is that IF this trend continues, yesterday and today's rains will be nothing in comparison! I will keep an eye on this. If anything were to happen it wouldn't be until mid to end next week.
Here are some storm reports from yesterday's storms. These are not all the reports, just a few to give you a sense of what happened.
NWUS51 KLWX 080545
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
145 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
0100 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 SSW HUNT VALLEY 39.49N 76.65W
07/08/2011 BALTIMORE MD 911 CALL CENTER
SWIFT WATER RESCUE AT THE INTERSECTION OF YORK RD AND
BEAVER RUN LN.
0645 PM FLOOD 1 NE HIGHLANDTOWN 39.30N 76.53W
07/07/2011 BALTIMORE CITY MD 911 CALL CENTER
ROAD FLOODED AT INTERSECTION OF N POINT RD AND KANE ST.
0645 PM FLOOD 3 WNW RIVERIA BEACH 39.19N 76.55W
07/07/2011 ANNE ARUNDEL MD 911 CALL CENTER
ROAD FLOODED AT FORT SMALLWOOD RD AT HAWKINS POINT RD.
0845 PM FLOOD 1 ENE MORRELL PARK 39.27N 76.65W
07/07/2011 BALTIMORE CITY MD 911 CALL CENTER
ROAD FLOODED AT THE INTERSECTION OF WASHINGTON BLVD AND
0700 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 W DUNDALK 39.27N 76.53W
07/07/2011 BALTIMORE CITY MD 911 CALL CENTER
SWIFT WATER RESCUE AT 2101 DUNDALK AVE.
0633 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SW DUNDALK 39.26N 76.51W
07/07/2011 BALTIMORE MD TRAINED SPOTTER
ROOFS PARTIALLY TAKEN OFF OF SEVERAL UNITS OF APARTMENT COMPLEX AT INTERSECTION OF MORNINGTON ROAD AND MEADOW
0640 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 WSW SPARROWS POINT 39.21N 76.53W
07/07/2011 BALTIMORE CITY MD TRAINED SPOTTER
MULTIPLE 3-4 FOOT DIAMETER TREES DOWN. MANY 2-4 INCH LIMBS BLOWN DOWN.
By: cws6196, 1:17 PM GMT on July 08, 2011
The NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch for the area. See the details below. Today we can expect conditions similar to yesterday, with pop up, scattered storms later in the afternoon and evening. These storms are tapping into a large pool of moisture and so could dump over 2 inches of rain. I would not be surprised to see flash flood warnings as well as thunderstorm warnings issued later.
I have the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated as well as my Twitter (@wxmanmd). Keep an eye on the skies.
...Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from Friday afternoon
through late Friday night...
The Flash Flood Watch continues for
* portions of Maryland east of the Blue Ridge...the District of
Columbia...much of northern Virginia...and Pendleton County in
* From Friday afternoon through late Friday night
* a weak cold front will drop into a very moist and humid airmass
Friday. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop by midday
Friday...and continue into the evening. Rainfall rates within
these thunderstorms may exceed 2 inches in less than an hour.
Several thunderstorms potentially could track across the same
area...resulting in flash flooding.
A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.
By: cws6196, 3:51 AM GMT on July 06, 2011
The NWS has again issued an air quality alert for Wednesday. A look at the next few days shows that we have a chance for rain and storms each day through Friday, but I wouldn't be too concerned as any storm development will be scattered and not severe. Although, any storm needs respect. Creating these storm potentials is a warm front to come into the the area from the south, coupled with many upper level 'disturbances'. I do not foresee any watches/warnings needing to be issued.
In case you hear something about this I will mention it now: there is talk among some forecasters and weathercasters about tropical weather effecting MD this weekend. I understand the dynamics they are seeing, but I do not see the development happening as they are predicting. As I see it, the conditions are not right (approaching front, upper level wind shear, cool ocean temps) to support tropical development near MD. So, in case there is media attention on this, now you know my stance. If I need to modify my stance, I will let you know, but as I see it, the weekend will be nice (too warm for me, but nice).
I will keep the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated as needed and will continue my daily posts on twitter (@wxmanmd).
By: cws6196, 2:22 PM GMT on July 04, 2011
A Happy Independence Day to one and all! Let's remember the reason for today and be grateful for all those over the centuries who made this day possible.
The weather today will depend on where you will be. The storms that came through yesterday were a result of a cold front, which is moving through MD now and will stall out (stop) around Southern MD. Most will experience a cloudy day with high temps, but the humidity will be lower than yesterday, so it shouldn't feel too bad. Those north of Baltimore should have a quiet weather day.
Those in Southern MD will see a chance for thunderstorms later in the afternoon extending into the evening. These storms will be scattered, but some could be severe with strong wind and hail. I wouldn't change your plans for today, but keep an eye on the skies for rapidly changing conditions.
Thus far no watches/warnings are in effect except for an air quality alert for Southern MD. I will keep the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated as needed as well as twitter (@wxmanmd). Enjoy the day!!
By: cws6196, 3:42 PM GMT on July 03, 2011
Not much new to report from last night's update. The conditions this morning are setting the stage for storm potential later in the afternoon. The cold front is still over OH at this time, arriving in MD later this evening.
The rest of this morning and early afternoon are what you see; haze, hot, humid. Storms will develop in the NW and move SE. I see the beginning of the storms after 2:00 pm with those in Southern MD not seeing activity until closer to dinner time or a bit later (depending on the speed of the storms).
Most of the storms will contain rain and some lightning, although a few severe cells could be embedded in these storms. Those storms could produce strong winds and hail. Keep an eye on the sky as all of these storms today will be scattered and pop up quickly.
I will keep the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated as well as play by play type updates on Twitter (@wxmanmd). I will post updates here as conditions warrant.
By: cws6196, 1:10 AM GMT on July 03, 2011
I wanted to give an update for Sunday now since many of you will wake to rain and possible storms. A brief storm cell developed earlier effecting Frederick and Howard counties, but for now all is clear and will remain so through midnight.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop in the early hours of the morning, but nothing severe. The day will remain cloudy yet warm and more humid than today. Given the heating, dew points and approaching cold front, scattered storms will develop im the afternoon and evening. Some of them could be severe.
Sunday wont be a wash out, but will end as it starts, wet. I will have another update later in the morning. Follow my twitter (@wxmanmd) for quick timely updates.
By: cws6196, 2:42 PM GMT on July 02, 2011
An air quality alert is in effect for both Central and Southern MD for Saturday. Today will be warmer than the last couple days with higher humidity. Tomorrow, Sunday, will be even hotter and I would not be surprised to see the NWS issue a heat advisory for Sunday.
My update is similar to what I posted yesterday. As the high pressure system moves off the coast, and upper level dynamics move in the from the west, moisture and heat will be pushed into the area. With the approach of a cold front, well by now I'm sure you know what that means. Here is a breakdown:
TODAY: Hot and humid with some clouds around. Late this evening those in the NW and along the MD/PA border "could" see scattered storms, but I am not confident that will happen. But just be aware of the possibility.
SUNDAY: Way hot and humid, with the possibility for a heat advisory to be issued. Some lingering storms could happen in the morning, but there is a cold front advancing from the north, and this could trigger some strong storms later in the afternoon into the evening. These storms will be scattered, but some could be severe with wind as the main damaging feature. More on this in my Sunday morning update.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: For those in Central MD north of Baltimore it will be a nice day all around. A bit cooler yet warm. The cold front will stall somewhere in Southern MD, aiding in destabilizing the atmosphere and so the possibility for scattered storms south of Baltimore Monday afternoon and evening. More to come on that in future updates.
I will keep the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated as well as my posts on Twitter (@wxmanmd). As a holiday gift to yourself, I recommend purchasing a weather radio, signing up for my text alerts, signing up (free) at www.emergencyemail.org, and using the free weather warn software from a local developer: http://www.wxspots.com I mention all this not as an advertisement, but for safety at home and on the go with text messages. Enjoy the weekend!
By: cws6196, 1:41 PM GMT on July 01, 2011
Today's weather will be similar to the past couple days, although a tad warmer and the humidity will stay low. Southern MD and the DC metro area is under an air quality alert for today. Come the weekend the weather will change.
Saturday we will see a change in the air flow, now coming from the south, thus pushing in warmer and more humid air for us. Temps will be in the 90s and a bit more humid. I would not be surprised to see air quality alerts issued for more of MD. As a cold front begins its descent into MD, those NW of Baltimore and along the MD/PA line could experience scattered thunder storms late Saturday night. Some of these storms could be severe. As they will be occurring at night, keep an eye out for distant lightning, but more importantly, as a holiday gift, buy yourself a weather radio to stay protected.
Sunday will be the warmest of the weekend with heat indices into the 100s possible. With the cold front moving through there is more chance for scattered storms Sunday into Sunday evening. I will speak more about timing and intensity tomorrow, but Sunday will not be a wash out, but quite different from today. I would not be surprised to see heat advisories issued for Sunday.
Come Monday, most of us will have a warm, less humid and dry day, with the exception of those in Southern MD who could still see rain and some scattered storms as a result of the cold front stalling near southern MD. But Monday is a long way off weather-wise so I dont want to say too much more about Monday just yet.
I will keep the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated and continue to update my Twitter (@wxmanmd) daily. Enjoy today!