Central MD Weather Conditions

this Winter won't stop

Posted by: cws6196, 1:27 PM GMT on March 28, 2011

final update Fri April 1 Noon

Most of MD was spared accumulation. It is now time to move on with the Spring storms.

update Thurs March 31 late evening

This is a quick update as it appears what I have been saying all along is holding true, namely this will be mostly a rain event except for those to the West and along the MD/PA border. Those areas could see 1 - 2 inches of snow. Those North of Baltimore have a slight chance for a dusting on the grassy areas.

I will keep the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) and Twitter (@wxmanMD) updated in the event advisories are issued. I do believe it is more then safe for me to say it is time to switch to Spring storm mode. As I stated a few weeks ago I am concerned about severe storms this Spring so I will be watching. FL had some wild storms Thurs and there is a potential for a tornado outbreak next week in the MS valley. No severe weather in the forecast yet for us.

update Wed March 30 Midnight

Ok, so I have been looking over the data and feel that my previous post and explanation is still valid. I will say though that the models did not do well Wed evening since people saw some snow when the data did not suggest it. But it only goes to show what I previously said about the difficulty with this forecast.

ACCUMULATION

Most of us will see rain, especially in the South. Those North of Baltimore "could" see 1 - 2 inches if you see snow. Those West and along the MD/PA line should see more then that, maybe 4 or so.

TIMING

Snow should start (for those who see snow) late Thursday into Friday morning.

I will keep the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated as well as Twitter (@wxmanMD). This is definitely the last snow opportunity for this season. I will have another update later Thursday.

update Tues March 29 early evening

I cant believe we are still talking about snow, even though I love the stuff. As I have been mentioning this is not an easy forecast for many reasons. This version will be tentative as I want to see how the data trends over the next few runs to get a more confident and accurate picture of what will be happening, but this update will look at how I see it at the moment.

As I posted earlier this morning on my facebook and Twitter, I really don't see this as a major event for those in Central and Southern MD. There are those who are forecasting a huge dump of snow on Friday, but at the moment I just don't see it.

IMMEDIATE CONCERN

The first item to mention is the possibility of some light slushy snow Wednesday morning. Most of the snow overnight will fall to our West, but the chance does exist for it to move Eastward. As the day progresses it will turn to all rain.

TIMING

The main storm will happen late Thursday afternoon into Friday afternoon. The best chance for snow would be Friday morning.

ACCUMULATION

That is the question, and at this time we really don't know. As I mentioned, there are those predicting 8 inches or more, but I just don't see it right now. At the moment I could see an inch or so, maybe 4 inches along the MD/PA border. Those who are primed for snow are Western MD East toward Carroll county and up along the MD/PA border and North. I see Southern MD with mainly rain. But keep in mind that I do want to see some more data before feeling overly confident. Please note that if I am wrong we could be looking at 8 or more inches Friday afternoon (who, me wrong? hehe)

CONCERNS

First, this is a coastal Low, and if it were January I would be so excited and all over this. But it is the beginning of April and that does change things. Water temps are rising, the soil is above freezing (in the 40s) and the angle of the sun is greater. I also feel the models have a hard time this time of year as they are geared up for warmer temps, not what we have been seeing, so what they are producing may not be reliable. True the models show us getting a lot of snow, but when you factor in the data I just mentioned I feel you have to tone down the model figures. Also, the NAO, which brings us strong storms when negative, is on the rise come April 1.

DYNAMICS

This is a coastal Low and so it will bring with it a lot of moisture. The position of the Low will make a difference, and currently that is all over the place. With the High over Canada weakening, I see the Low positioned such that we will be on the warmer side of the storm.

I will keep the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated as well as my Twitter (@wxmanMD). I may update again later this evening, but definitely Wednesday evening.

update Mon March 28 Midnight

Don't hate me, but I am going to defer my forecast until later Tuesday. Why? This is not an easy forecast to make for many reasons, therefore I would like to be a bit closer to the event before I make a full forecast. But nonetheless, there is snow coming.

DIFFICULTY

This time of the year with the cold and warm air masses and changing jet streams for the seasons makes forecasting tricky as the weather can do just about anything. The model data is not overly reliable as it has a tough time forecasting a Winter event in Spring. So the models are not the best source of data until closer to the event.

This is a coastal storm with the Low moving up the coast. As in the Winter the position of the Low makes a big difference on our precip type and amount. Without reliable model data I will need to compare radar and satellite images, but cant do that until the storm is moving along the coast.

POSITIVES FOR SNOW

I have no doubt we will see snow this week, and I feel confident to say those in Western MD and PA North will see the bulk of the snow with Southern MD probably in a rain pattern. Cold air is all around us and close to the surface in the atmosphere. With the Low moving up the coast and a High over Canada we are primed for the white stuff.

TIMING

This is also difficult, but we could see snow as early as after Midnight Tues into Wed.

I will put out a more detailed forecast regarding accumulations and timing early Tuesday evening. But we could be looking at either a rain event or 4 plus inches of snow by Friday. Some forecasters are even calling for more then 8 inches. Realistically I think we will see a couple inches with mostly rain.

I will post again late Tuesday afternoon or early Tuesday evening.

original post Mon March 28 morning

Well, in my last post I stated that we were probably done with snow for the season. But the season just keeps going and going ... In my last post I also stated I was watching some interesting weather for the end of the week.

So .... yes, you all guessed it, more snow. It is too early to say right now for sure what will happen, but we do have snow chances from Wednesday through Friday. I do not think this will be a major event, rather more like this past Sunday where there is some snow with limited accumulation. I just do not see this as a major event. There are those out there talking about this as a major East coast storm ... I just don't see it.

But, it is early and things can change. I will have another update later tonight.

Updated: 3:57 PM GMT on April 01, 2011

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March SNOW

Posted by: cws6196, 1:40 PM GMT on March 19, 2011

final update Sun March 27 morning

Well, as I figured this was a Southern storm. Southern MD counties are still under a Winter Weather Advisory as it is still snowing there. Ocean City received some snow as I have seen in web cam images. But Baltimore and North has nothing. Below my signature are the current snow totals. I will expect those from Southern MD to increase throughout the morning.

So is this the end of snow for us. Probably is. But this coming week we will be 10 - 15 degrees below normal with some evening temps falling below freezing. I am watching a system the end of the week and will post more on that later.

As a reminder, during the lulls in storms I will not be posting, but I will be adding to Twitter on a daily basis. If you don't have Twitter that is fine, you do not have to have it. Go to this link (without needing to sign up): www.twitter.com/wxmanMD For those with Twitter follow @wxmanMD.

I will update in a couple days regarding the weather the end of the week.

NOUS41 KLWX 271341
PNSLWX
DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502 -VAZ025>031-
036>040-042-050>057-501>504-WVZ050>053-055-501>50 6-280141-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
941 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION.
APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE
OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS.

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

...DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON 0.2 730 AM 3/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

MARYLAND

...BALTIMORE COUNTY...
1 NNE ROSEDALE T 733 AM 3/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CALVERT COUNTY...
NORTH BEACH 1.0 914 AM 3/27 CO-OP OBSERVER

...CHARLES COUNTY...
SAINT CHARLES 0.6 850 AM 3/27 NWS EMPLOYEE
2 ESE BRYANS ROAD T 340 AM 3/27

...ST. MARYS COUNTY...
1 NNW CALIFORNIA 1.8 934 AM 3/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
NW CHARLOTTE HALL 1.3 737 AM 3/27 BROADCAST MEDIA

update Sat March 26 Noon

Enjoy the sun while we have it today. Snow is on the way.

DYNAMICS

We have a Canadian High which is bringing down the cold air into the area. A surface Low will ride along the front just to the South of us, with it's counter clockwise spin will bring in moisture from the Atlantic and more cold air from New England. If this were January I would be much more excited!

TIMING

This is primarily a Southern MD (or South of Baltimore) storm. The precip for those areas should start around 2:00 am or so, while those North of Baltimore could see precip after 4:00am.

ACCUMULATION

This is not January, so the dynamics are quite different. Difficulty in this part of the forecast is the exact path of the Low. Also keep in mind that the soil temp for the area is well above freezing, so sticking snow will be hard to come by. But, I am saying 2" or so in Southern MD with 1 - 2" North of Baltimore. This will be heavy wet snow.

THIS WEEK

Overall the temps this week will be about 10 or so degrees cooler then normal. I am watching the possibility for some interesting weather the end of the week. More to come on that as we get closer.

I expect Winter Weather Advisories to be issued later in the day. I will keep the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated as well as Twitter (@wxmanMD). For those signed up for my text alerts I will let you know when the advisories are issued (will also be posted on Twitter). Enjoy this quick (last?) shot of Winter!

update Thurs March 24 late evening

Let's take a vote - who here thinks it's Spring? Take a walk outside and take in a deep breath; doesn't it smell and feel like Winter? Am I loving it or what!? But seriously, yes we are in a cold period and will stay this way most likely through the beginning of April. So what about the snow?

SNOW

Yes, most of us will see some snow Saturday into Sunday. With a high pressure system over New England and a Low moving in from the SW, the cold air will be in place. The temps during the day should not be more then the mid 40s while the evening temps over the weekend will be in the low 30s and some areas in the 20s.

TIMING

Right now it looks like the snow could start falling after 10:00 pm Saturday through about Noon or so on Sunday. This far out these are approximations, but in the ball park.

ACCUMULATION

This is the tough question. I will have to revisit this late Friday or Saturday morning, but as I see it most of us will see 1 - 2 inches when we wake Sunday morning. Most of the accumulation will be on grassy areas, not road surfaces. Those to the West of Baltimore could see a bit more. And yes, Southern MD will get in on this fun too.

CONCERNS

1. The model data is not as consistent as I would like to see it on this system, particularly on how far North the snow will advance. This could be a Southern MD storm only. But, I do believe the snow will make it north of Baltimore.
2. This is March and even though the temps have been cooler these past few days it isn't January anymore. Any accumulation will be wet snow and should melt by the late afternoon Sunday.
3. If this system strengthens and if the temps get colder faster, there is a chance for more accumulation. I don't really think this will happen, but I do want to mention the possibility.

LONG RANGE

The cold air will stay with us into April. There are a couple systems I am watching later next week, but way too early to say much more on those.

LONGER RANGE

As I mentioned awhile ago, I am concerned about our chance for severe Spring storms and this lingering cold air only makes me more nervous. Just the other day there was a decent sized tornado in SW PA. The longer the cold air lingers, the greater the chance for the warmer SW air to clash into the cold - then the storms begin. So, not to scare anyone, but I am concerned we may have a stormy Spring.

I will keep the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated as well as Twitter (@wxmanMD). I will update maybe late Friday, but definitely Saturday morning.

update Thurs March 24 way early in the morning

The Wednesday storms have passed us by but there could be some rain in the morning Thursday. I checked the storm reports for our area from the Wed storms and there are none. I had some good thunderstorms come through, but nothing severe. The storm reports were from areas to our West.

I am still looking at the chance for snow Saturday evening and again Monday. It is still too early for me to have any definite info, but accumulation will be hard to come by given the warmth of the ground and the latest rainfall. Those who do see snow will be north of Baltimore. The Monday system looks more impressive then Saturday's, but again, I want another day or so to look things over.

I will keep the Weather Phone updated and post daily tweets on Twitter (@wxmanMD). I will update later Thursday evening.

update Wed March 23 early evening

As of this writing we are experiencing thunderstorms through most of MD. These storms, in Central MD, have had heavy rain downpours, hail and lots of lightning. A look at the radar image as of 7:30 shows areas of large upper level rotation with lots of lighting strikes. It looks like we will be seeing these storms for some time.

Thus far there are no watches/warnings issued for Central or Southern MD. I will update the weather phone and post on Twitter (@wxmanMD) if there are any warnings issued. Enjoy the storms but stay safe!

I will have an update later tonight on the snow the end of the week.

update Wed March 23 afternoon

We can expect the possibility of storms later this afternoon as the warm front moves into the area. Currently far Western MD is under a tornado watch, although I do not anticipate that watch being extended into Central MD.

Those West and South of Baltimore are more susceptible for the storms this afternoon, while those in Northern Harford Co should not at all be effected. The rest of us should keep an eye on the sky for storm formation.

Those who do experience a storm today should expect hail and strong winds.

I will keep the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated as well as my Twitter feed (@wxmanMD). I will have another update later this evening regarding snow potential later this week.

update Monday March 21 Midnight

As I mentioned in my last post, with so many dynamics in the atmosphere, and a season change, the weather could give us some surprises. Well, that was true on Monday: many of us woke up to hail and a thunderstorm (honestly, I didn't see that coming), and in the early evening strong thunderstorms moved through Southern MD instead of thunderstorms in the afternoon in Northern MD as I (and the data) forecast. So once again, Mother Nature is in control.

So where are we going with the week? Tuesday looks to be the quietest day, although rain and storms are possible later in the evening. Wednesday into Thursday look to be stormy with thunderstorms possible on Wednesday, although I see most (not all) of the storms to be in Southern MD.

SNOW

We wont be building any snowmen this week, but, if the already cold night temps fall by only a matter of a few degrees, those who see precip Tuesday night, Wednesday night could see snow. That would be those North of Baltimore and into Western MD.

LONG RANGE

Looks like Sunday into Monday will be interesting, as I previously mentioned. The snow chance for Saturday is diminishing, although it is still too early for any details or definites. I mention this only so you have an idea of what may be on the horizon.

I will say that this week is quite the challenge to forecast with so much happening. Not that is is difficult from a lack of weather / forecasting knowledge, rather it is difficult because when you have so much happening in the atmosphere it is hard to tell what really will happen. Keep in mind that most of these days we have the pattern of warm air moving up from the South during the day and cold fronts moving in from the North in the evenings. Those North of MD are getting good amounts of snow, while those South and West of MD are having strong thunderstorms. So put all this together and you have an atmosphere which could do almost anything.

I will keep the Weather Phone and Twitter updated. Tuesday morning I have the honor and privilege to be speaking to middle school students in the GT science classes about the weather and forecasting. I hope there are some future meteorologists and storm chasers in the group. Looking forward to this!

update Sunday March 20 Midnight

Welcome Spring!! It is official, Winter is over .... kinda. In summary, the end of this week into the beginning of April will seem more like February then spring, but trust me, we will be hot and humid soon enough.

So, the big question, will we see snow? Maybe ... but lets look at some dynamics first.

DYNAMICS

1. Sunday evening into Monday we find a weak warm front moving into the area. This will raise the temps to feel like spring, but ...
2. A cold front moves in Monday afternoon which will drop the temps.
3. Tuesday evening another warm front brings warm moist air over the layer of cold air near the surface
4. Wednesday's weather dynamics involve another weak warm front but with a tight temp gradient, meaning the line between the cold and warm air in our area will be tight and thus too hard right now to know for certain who will see what
5. Late Wednesday night we see the Low moving through the area, with a building Canadian high, both of the rotations bringing in quite cold air from the North
6. Possible Low pressure system along the coast over the weekend
7. An interesting pattern the beginning of next week, but way too early for me to elaborate further.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN

I hope everyone notices a pattern for our weather this coming week; there is a lot to it (and I just gave a summary), therefore some of the forecast is left up to Mother Nature since there are so many dynamics in the forecast, one wonders if some surprises will happen in the mix.

SNOW??

Well, let's look at all the precip:

1. Monday morning we could see light rain, but in the afternoon, given the passage of the cold front into the warm moist air we could see isolated thunderstorms. Those who do experience these storms will see hail and strong wind as the main features.
2. There could be some precip Tuesday evening, and if so then it would be in the form of snow given the low overnight temps. But, I am doubtful this will happen. If I am wrong,. those along the MD/PA border will be the ones to see the snow.
3. Wed into Thurs is still in question regarding snowfall. Given the temp gradient, those who have snow and those who have rain will be close. Right now I see that only those in the Northern reaches of Baltimore Co and along the border will see any chance for snow. Accumulations will be quite light, and given the rise in ground temp should not stay very long.

LONG RANGE

For the long range I am watching a system this weekend, primarily Saturday afternoon. Not too confident just yet, but there is some data hint at something, and with the cold air in place I just want everyone to be aware. Also, the end of March looks to be interesting based on a couple models. Too far out to tell, but keep a heads up and I will keep watching it.

I will have another update Monday evening. Keep an eye on the sky Monday afternoon and I will keep the Weather Phone updated as well as Twitter. For those who receive my text alerts I will let you know if watches/warnings are issued (will also post on Twitter). Just to mention, the most boring day this week weatherwise will be Tuesday; should be sunny and dry (until the late evening).

original post Sat March 19 morning

Ok, in my post yesterday I hinted at something I did not want to say, but now that I see the NWS has said it I cannot allow them to scoop me (even though I saw this a couple days ago) ... yes my friends, SNOW is back.

I will post more on this later, but I am not talking about lots of snow nor snow that will linger, rather snow on the ground to remind us it is only March. As I mentioned yesterday, each day, starting today, will be colder as the week progresses and there are some systems moving through. The snow chance is for late Wednesday into Thursday and only for those North of Baltimore, along the MD/PA line and into Northern Harford Co.

I will post more about this later in the weekend. Spring officially starts later Sunday!

Updated: 1:54 PM GMT on March 27, 2011

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summer-like then cold

Posted by: cws6196, 3:57 PM GMT on March 18, 2011

Are you enjoying this taste of early summer? We are just coming up on Noon and the temps around the area are in the upper 60s. They should top off in the lower to mid 70s by the early afternoon. As the cold front to our West pushes closer to the area, expect the clouds to build throughout the afternoon.

Not to be a kill joy, but enjoy the day while you can since each subsequent day will get colder. Next week we will see a series of systems moving though bringing us colder temps and rain, with a slight chance for some thunderstorms. The end of the week will be the coldest days and I am watching a system come around the area at the same time. More to come on that in later days.

For daily weather updates and commentary please follow my Twitter feed. If you do not have twitter that is fine, no need to sign up, merely go to www.twitter.com/wxmanMD For those with a Twitter account follow me @wxmanMD I will keep the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated as necessary (for severe weather and alerts).

Enjoy the day!

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weather spotting

Posted by: cws6196, 4:31 AM GMT on March 17, 2011

If you are interested in the weather and wish to know more and get involved, please see the article below. If you have any questions just ask me.

Regarding the local weather, for the next few days it will be dull and boring. Thursday and Friday will be quite warm, especially Friday, but enjoy it now for come next week and the end of the month, temps will again drop.

---------- Forwarded message ----------

Fascinated by weather? Become a weather "spotter"
via Maryland Weather by Frank Roylance on 3/16/11

FROM TODAY'S PRINT EDITIONS:

If you’re really “into” the weather, you should consider joining the National Weather Service’s “Weather Spotter” program. Trained weather spotters learn how to observe and report important weather events, helping meteorologists provide more accurate forecasts and warnings. The NWS and Baltimore County’s office of Emergency Management will hold a free, 3-hour training class March 23 at Towson University. For more information, go to http://bsun.md/f2HI1a

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the end of snow

Posted by: cws6196, 4:59 AM GMT on March 14, 2011

Well, with the change of the clocks, the warmer weather, Spring officially only a week away, I feel confident to declare no more snow for us this season. I number of weeks ago I started talking about a possible storm on the 20th. Even though the conditions were right for snow, that storm will move through the Great Lakes and not effect us.

This week we could see rain Wednesday with a slight chance for thunderstorms, and again late Friday with another chance for thunderstorms. Other then that it will be a mild week for March.

In the long range, the end of March will see another shot of cold air, presumably our last. I am a bit concerned that our Spring will be a stormy one, and I will keep you posted on that.

So, with the weather going "boring" for the next week or so, my posts will be less frequent. I will be posting if there is potential for thunderstorms or severe weather, but not necessarily every time we see a normal rain fall. For those who miss my posts, please follow me on Twitter as I will be posting daily @wxmanMD (www.twitter.com/wxmanMD = for those without a twitter account).

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reminder

Posted by: cws6196, 2:13 PM GMT on March 12, 2011

Just a quick friendly reminder to everyone to move your clocks ahead 1 hour before you retire this evening. Even though this is a sign of Spring/Summer on the way, I much prefer the change in Fall when I get an extra hour of sleep.

I will have an update on the possible storms around the 20th that I have been talking about sometime later today or Sunday morning. It is nothing imminent. For those interested in quick weather statements during a lull in my formal reports can follow me on Twitter. If you don't have a Twitter account you can still follow me by going to: www.twitter.com/#wxmanMD. If you have an account you can find me: @wxmanMD.

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Floods and snow in Central MD

Posted by: cws6196, 1:02 PM GMT on March 08, 2011

update Fri March 11 morning

I haven't yet seen a list of rain fall totals for the State, but I measured a total rainfall of 3.83 inches. Baltimore broke the record yesterday for total rain in a single day.

update Thurs March 10 late

I know I promised an update Thursday night, but as a result of the storm I have lost power (3 hours and counting) and so have limited internet and not enough for the intensity of all my maps and data. If the power comes on soon I will have an update; if not I will update either late Friday or Saturday. As the next storm is not until the end of the week I guess there is no rush.

I will check my rain gauge in the morning when this is all over, but I have no doubt it is close to 2.5 inches if not more. There are many road closures and flood reports.

I will update when I can.

update Thurs March 10 afternoon

Well, looking at the radar and out my window, I don't think we will have our dry slot I mentioned this morning. I do believe it will rain continuously through the late evening. The Low is currently around the WV / VA border, and as that Low and the associated cold front progress toward our area, the rain will get heavier and the chances for thunderstorms will increase. As I mentioned this morning, Southern MD has the greatest chance for severe weather. As I write this the radar is indicating Central MD has had over 1.5 inches of rain thus far.

I have heard some media outlets talking about snow tomorrow. If you hear the same thing please note that is for far Western MD and possibly MD/PA border. I will have another update late this evening regarding the next storms.

update Thurs March 10 morning

Well, the rain continues. Thus far I have recorded just under 1 inch of rainfall. Expect the rain to continue this morning, then there will be a break in the rain until the mid-afternoon or so (timing is not precise). This break will happen as the current warm front bringing us this rain moves away, allowing for a dry slot prior to the cold front moving through this afternoon, bringing us a lot of rain!

There is a chance for thunderstorms, yet these will be isolated. Those who do experience a thunderstorm will have very strong winds and a chance for an isolated tornado. SOUTHERN MARYLAND has the best chance for strong storms and tornadoes, but all of us should be observant this afternoon. The rain should stop around Midnight or so.

I am still watching the storm potential on the 20th, and another system the 15th. I will have a complete update late this evening. The Weather Phone is updated (feel free to leave me flooding and rain reports on the voice mail) and I will keep twitter updated as well (@wxmanMD).

update Wed March 9 evening

Just a quick update to mention the rain is not arriving as planned, but will still be here. It now appears the steady rainfall will start around Midnight (some of us have had some light sprinkles). As the evening progresses the wind will pick up, and tomorrow will be strong. I still see the bulk of the heavy rain happening late morning into the evening of Thursday. There could be an isolated thunderstorm, but the main threat is the potential for 3 inches of rain.

update Tues March 8 Midnight

The Flood Watch is still issued for Wednesday evening into Thursday.

HOW I SEE IT

1. Light rain could begin later Wed morning and last through Wed evening. Most of this should be light
2. Heavy rain to occur late Thursday morning into Thurs evening. Most will see about 2 inches of rain with some locally heavy amounts measuring 3 or so inches of rain
3. Late Thursday those along the MD/PA line and to the West could see some light snow with minimal accumulation possible

DYNAMICS

If this were the beginning of February this set up would potentially bring us 2 feet of snow. But as it is March the climate dynamics are different. What is happening is a Low from TX is moving NE at the same time a cold front pushes in from the NW. As these two systems merge we have enough lift and moisture from the Gulf to bring us all of this rain. If the timing of the rain is slightly ahead of the front there could be some snow or freezing rain Wednesday morning, but as I see it, the timing will be such that it will be all rain.

SNOW ON THE HORIZON?

Around March 20 is looking interesting. The setup appears similar to what we will see Wed / Thurs, but it appears that the jet stream will dip such that we could have an influx of Canadian cold air when that system brings in the precip. For this to happen we will need the proper timing, the cold air, and a negative NAO. So far those seem to be coming together, but it is way too early to say anything with certainty. All I will say for certain is I will continue to watch it and keep you posted.

I would not be surprised to see flash flood warnings issued at some point, mainly Thursday. I will keep the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated as well as my Twitter (#wxmanMD). Feel free to comment or leave me a voice message about the amount of rain you have and any flooding. I will have another update later Wednesday evening.

original post Tuesday March 8 morning

The NWS has issued a Flood Watch for us for tomorrow night (see below). More to come from me on this later tonight, but as I first mentioned over the weekend, it looks like a good sized storm with lots of rain. I am not too sure about a thunderstorm with this system, but rain and winds can wreak havoc.

OUTLOOK

Am watching an interesting system around March 20, could be a strong rain storm, but we could see white stuff. The NAO is going negative, which helps in the development of snow storms along the East Coast. it is way too early to tell for sure, and with it being March many of the trends are changing, but it is worth mentioning so you will at least know something is happening around the 20th.

I will give another update later tonight on the rain for tomorrow and Thursday. I will keep the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated as well as my Twitter (@wxmanMD).

Updated: 2:10 PM GMT on March 11, 2011

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heavy rain Sunday

Posted by: cws6196, 5:18 PM GMT on March 05, 2011

addendum Sun March 6

As an addendum to my previous post: for those West of Baltimore Co and along the MD/PA line, there is a slight chance for you to see snow late this evening (around Midnight). As the rain continues and the cold front causes a drop in temps, there may be enough cold air for snow to occur. Nothing major, less then an inch.

update Sunday March 6 Noon

Thus far not too much rain has fallen across Central MD. Later this afternoon, as I stated in my last post, will be when the heavy rain will happen. The cold front is just to our West and a Low is riding up the front from the South. As the Low gets closer we will see the rain move more to the East.

The Flood Watch is still in effect until 7:00 this evening with rain amounts around 2 inches. For those along the coast (Bay and Potomac), watch for rising waters as high tides will occur this afternoon at the same time as the rains move in. For the rest of us, watch for clogged drains and rising creeks.

I am still keeping an eye on the thunderstorm possibility for Thursday. I will post again tonight if conditions warrant.

update Sunday March 6 morning

The NWS has issued a Flood Watch for Maryland until 7:00 pm.

original post Sat March 5 afternoon

Today will be cloudy for the rest of the day, but the rain should hold off until around 10 pm or after Midnight (depending on your location). The heaviest rain will fall in Central MD after dinner. Most of us could see close to 2 inches of rain. Keep in mind that this system is what I originally saw as a snow storm for us. Assuming the 2 inches of rain pans out, that would have been close to 18 inches or so of snow. Just wanted to put this in perspective.

I am watching the chance for strong thunderstorms for us around Wed or Thurs. More to come on that.

I wouldn't be surprised to see flood watches/warnings to be issued tomorrow. Follow me on Twitter (@wxmanMD). I will update Sunday late morning.

Updated: 6:07 PM GMT on March 06, 2011

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let's talk snow

Posted by: cws6196, 4:59 AM GMT on March 03, 2011

Well, for what it's worth, I am declaring Winter (at least our snow chances) as over for this season. Those in far Western MD and Central to North PA will still see the white stuff, but for the rest of MD, we are done. This is not to say temps will be warm, on the contrary, but we will not have anymore snow. The storm on the 6th that I have been watching will be a rain event for us. Saturday evening into Sunday afternoon we will see periods of very heavy rainfall. Keep in mind that over a couple weeks ago when I first saw this system, all the rain we will receive was at that time all snow. So, when you are complaining that it is raining on the weekend, keep in mind what could have been happening this weekend had the cold air stayed in place. It's all about perspective.

Well, now I change gears and begin to watch for severe thunderstorms, tornado chances, and beginning late June, tropical storm and hurricane impacts to our area. As I gear up for Spring storms, this could be a good time for you to spread the word about my blog, getting others to follow it. Even though my posts may be less frequent, I will keep up with the Twitter posts (@wxmanMD).

From mid-March through June will be our busy season for storms, and with the current weather patterns and La Nina, our area could be in for some wild weather.

So for now, adios to Winter snow!!

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Spring?

Posted by: cws6196, 4:03 PM GMT on March 01, 2011

Today, March 1, marks the beginning of what is called "meteorological spring". We all know that on the calendar it is not yet Spring, but meteorologists and climatologists see March 1 as the end of the 3 coldest months of the year (on average), namely, December, January & February. Those three months being known as "meteorological winter", beginning on Dec. 1.

So, enjoy your "first day of Spring", even though this week will be generally cold. I am still monitoring the March 6 storm, but as I stated earlier, don't change any plans you may have. Just as a reminder, I am now on Twitter: @wxmanMD.

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I host a Weather Phone: 443-470-9804 & email list for people in MD. Follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD. I am also a Skywarn spotter & CoCoRaHS observer.

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