final update Sun March 27 morning
Well, as I figured this was a Southern storm. Southern MD counties are still under a Winter Weather Advisory as it is still snowing there. Ocean City received some snow as I have seen in web cam images. But Baltimore and North has nothing. Below my signature are the current snow totals. I will expect those from Southern MD to increase throughout the morning.
So is this the end of snow for us. Probably is. But this coming week we will be 10 - 15 degrees below normal with some evening temps falling below freezing. I am watching a system the end of the week and will post more on that later.
As a reminder, during the lulls in storms I will not be posting, but I will be adding to Twitter on a daily basis. If you don't have Twitter that is fine, you do not have to have it. Go to this link (without needing to sign up): www.twitter.com/wxmanMD For those with Twitter follow @wxmanMD.
I will update in a couple days regarding the weather the end of the week.
NOUS41 KLWX 271341
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
941 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011
THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION.
APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE
OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS.
********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************
LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
...DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON 0.2 730 AM 3/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NNE ROSEDALE T 733 AM 3/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
NORTH BEACH 1.0 914 AM 3/27 CO-OP OBSERVER
SAINT CHARLES 0.6 850 AM 3/27 NWS EMPLOYEE
2 ESE BRYANS ROAD T 340 AM 3/27
...ST. MARYS COUNTY...
1 NNW CALIFORNIA 1.8 934 AM 3/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
NW CHARLOTTE HALL 1.3 737 AM 3/27 BROADCAST MEDIA
update Sat March 26 Noon
Enjoy the sun while we have it today. Snow is on the way.
We have a Canadian High which is bringing down the cold air into the area. A surface Low will ride along the front just to the South of us, with it's counter clockwise spin will bring in moisture from the Atlantic and more cold air from New England. If this were January I would be much more excited!
This is primarily a Southern MD (or South of Baltimore) storm. The precip for those areas should start around 2:00 am or so, while those North of Baltimore could see precip after 4:00am.
This is not January, so the dynamics are quite different. Difficulty in this part of the forecast is the exact path of the Low. Also keep in mind that the soil temp for the area is well above freezing, so sticking snow will be hard to come by. But, I am saying 2" or so in Southern MD with 1 - 2" North of Baltimore. This will be heavy wet snow.
Overall the temps this week will be about 10 or so degrees cooler then normal. I am watching the possibility for some interesting weather the end of the week. More to come on that as we get closer.
I expect Winter Weather Advisories to be issued later in the day. I will keep the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated as well as Twitter (@wxmanMD). For those signed up for my text alerts I will let you know when the advisories are issued (will also be posted on Twitter). Enjoy this quick (last?) shot of Winter!
update Thurs March 24 late evening
Let's take a vote - who here thinks it's Spring? Take a walk outside and take in a deep breath; doesn't it smell and feel like Winter? Am I loving it or what!? But seriously, yes we are in a cold period and will stay this way most likely through the beginning of April. So what about the snow?
Yes, most of us will see some snow Saturday into Sunday. With a high pressure system over New England and a Low moving in from the SW, the cold air will be in place. The temps during the day should not be more then the mid 40s while the evening temps over the weekend will be in the low 30s and some areas in the 20s.
Right now it looks like the snow could start falling after 10:00 pm Saturday through about Noon or so on Sunday. This far out these are approximations, but in the ball park.
This is the tough question. I will have to revisit this late Friday or Saturday morning, but as I see it most of us will see 1 - 2 inches when we wake Sunday morning. Most of the accumulation will be on grassy areas, not road surfaces. Those to the West of Baltimore could see a bit more. And yes, Southern MD will get in on this fun too.
1. The model data is not as consistent as I would like to see it on this system, particularly on how far North the snow will advance. This could be a Southern MD storm only. But, I do believe the snow will make it north of Baltimore.
2. This is March and even though the temps have been cooler these past few days it isn't January anymore. Any accumulation will be wet snow and should melt by the late afternoon Sunday.
3. If this system strengthens and if the temps get colder faster, there is a chance for more accumulation. I don't really think this will happen, but I do want to mention the possibility.
The cold air will stay with us into April. There are a couple systems I am watching later next week, but way too early to say much more on those.
As I mentioned awhile ago, I am concerned about our chance for severe Spring storms and this lingering cold air only makes me more nervous. Just the other day there was a decent sized tornado in SW PA. The longer the cold air lingers, the greater the chance for the warmer SW air to clash into the cold - then the storms begin. So, not to scare anyone, but I am concerned we may have a stormy Spring.
I will keep the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated as well as Twitter (@wxmanMD). I will update maybe late Friday, but definitely Saturday morning.
update Thurs March 24 way early in the morning
The Wednesday storms have passed us by but there could be some rain in the morning Thursday. I checked the storm reports for our area from the Wed storms and there are none. I had some good thunderstorms come through, but nothing severe. The storm reports were from areas to our West.
I am still looking at the chance for snow Saturday evening and again Monday. It is still too early for me to have any definite info, but accumulation will be hard to come by given the warmth of the ground and the latest rainfall. Those who do see snow will be north of Baltimore. The Monday system looks more impressive then Saturday's, but again, I want another day or so to look things over.
I will keep the Weather Phone updated and post daily tweets on Twitter (@wxmanMD). I will update later Thursday evening.
update Wed March 23 early evening
As of this writing we are experiencing thunderstorms through most of MD. These storms, in Central MD, have had heavy rain downpours, hail and lots of lightning. A look at the radar image as of 7:30 shows areas of large upper level rotation with lots of lighting strikes. It looks like we will be seeing these storms for some time.
Thus far there are no watches/warnings issued for Central or Southern MD. I will update the weather phone and post on Twitter (@wxmanMD) if there are any warnings issued. Enjoy the storms but stay safe!
I will have an update later tonight on the snow the end of the week.
update Wed March 23 afternoon
We can expect the possibility of storms later this afternoon as the warm front moves into the area. Currently far Western MD is under a tornado watch, although I do not anticipate that watch being extended into Central MD.
Those West and South of Baltimore are more susceptible for the storms this afternoon, while those in Northern Harford Co should not at all be effected. The rest of us should keep an eye on the sky for storm formation.
Those who do experience a storm today should expect hail and strong winds.
I will keep the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated as well as my Twitter feed (@wxmanMD). I will have another update later this evening regarding snow potential later this week.
update Monday March 21 Midnight
As I mentioned in my last post, with so many dynamics in the atmosphere, and a season change, the weather could give us some surprises. Well, that was true on Monday: many of us woke up to hail and a thunderstorm (honestly, I didn't see that coming), and in the early evening strong thunderstorms moved through Southern MD instead of thunderstorms in the afternoon in Northern MD as I (and the data) forecast. So once again, Mother Nature is in control.
So where are we going with the week? Tuesday looks to be the quietest day, although rain and storms are possible later in the evening. Wednesday into Thursday look to be stormy with thunderstorms possible on Wednesday, although I see most (not all) of the storms to be in Southern MD.
We wont be building any snowmen this week, but, if the already cold night temps fall by only a matter of a few degrees, those who see precip Tuesday night, Wednesday night could see snow. That would be those North of Baltimore and into Western MD.
Looks like Sunday into Monday will be interesting, as I previously mentioned. The snow chance for Saturday is diminishing, although it is still too early for any details or definites. I mention this only so you have an idea of what may be on the horizon.
I will say that this week is quite the challenge to forecast with so much happening. Not that is is difficult from a lack of weather / forecasting knowledge, rather it is difficult because when you have so much happening in the atmosphere it is hard to tell what really will happen. Keep in mind that most of these days we have the pattern of warm air moving up from the South during the day and cold fronts moving in from the North in the evenings. Those North of MD are getting good amounts of snow, while those South and West of MD are having strong thunderstorms. So put all this together and you have an atmosphere which could do almost anything.
I will keep the Weather Phone and Twitter updated. Tuesday morning I have the honor and privilege to be speaking to middle school students in the GT science classes about the weather and forecasting. I hope there are some future meteorologists and storm chasers in the group. Looking forward to this!
update Sunday March 20 Midnight
Welcome Spring!! It is official, Winter is over .... kinda. In summary, the end of this week into the beginning of April will seem more like February then spring, but trust me, we will be hot and humid soon enough.
So, the big question, will we see snow? Maybe ... but lets look at some dynamics first.
1. Sunday evening into Monday we find a weak warm front moving into the area. This will raise the temps to feel like spring, but ...
2. A cold front moves in Monday afternoon which will drop the temps.
3. Tuesday evening another warm front brings warm moist air over the layer of cold air near the surface
4. Wednesday's weather dynamics involve another weak warm front but with a tight temp gradient, meaning the line between the cold and warm air in our area will be tight and thus too hard right now to know for certain who will see what
5. Late Wednesday night we see the Low moving through the area, with a building Canadian high, both of the rotations bringing in quite cold air from the North
6. Possible Low pressure system along the coast over the weekend
7. An interesting pattern the beginning of next week, but way too early for me to elaborate further.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN
I hope everyone notices a pattern for our weather this coming week; there is a lot to it (and I just gave a summary), therefore some of the forecast is left up to Mother Nature since there are so many dynamics in the forecast, one wonders if some surprises will happen in the mix.
Well, let's look at all the precip:
1. Monday morning we could see light rain, but in the afternoon, given the passage of the cold front into the warm moist air we could see isolated thunderstorms. Those who do experience these storms will see hail and strong wind as the main features.
2. There could be some precip Tuesday evening, and if so then it would be in the form of snow given the low overnight temps. But, I am doubtful this will happen. If I am wrong,. those along the MD/PA border will be the ones to see the snow.
3. Wed into Thurs is still in question regarding snowfall. Given the temp gradient, those who have snow and those who have rain will be close. Right now I see that only those in the Northern reaches of Baltimore Co and along the border will see any chance for snow. Accumulations will be quite light, and given the rise in ground temp should not stay very long.
For the long range I am watching a system this weekend, primarily Saturday afternoon. Not too confident just yet, but there is some data hint at something, and with the cold air in place I just want everyone to be aware. Also, the end of March looks to be interesting based on a couple models. Too far out to tell, but keep a heads up and I will keep watching it.
I will have another update Monday evening. Keep an eye on the sky Monday afternoon and I will keep the Weather Phone updated as well as Twitter. For those who receive my text alerts I will let you know if watches/warnings are issued (will also post on Twitter). Just to mention, the most boring day this week weatherwise will be Tuesday; should be sunny and dry (until the late evening).
original post Sat March 19 morning
Ok, in my post yesterday I hinted at something I did not want to say, but now that I see the NWS has said it I cannot allow them to scoop me (even though I saw this a couple days ago) ... yes my friends, SNOW is back.
I will post more on this later, but I am not talking about lots of snow nor snow that will linger, rather snow on the ground to remind us it is only March. As I mentioned yesterday, each day, starting today, will be colder as the week progresses and there are some systems moving through. The snow chance is for late Wednesday into Thursday and only for those North of Baltimore, along the MD/PA line and into Northern Harford Co.
I will post more about this later in the weekend. Spring officially starts later Sunday!
Updated: 1:54 PM GMT on March 27, 2011
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