I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.
By: cws6196, 12:57 AM GMT on February 28, 2011
update Monday Feb 28 afternoon
Well folks, looks like Mother Nature had other plans for us today. Apart from the storms that moved through Southern MD earlier today, it appears we are now out of the woods for any severe weather. The dynamics do not support anything more then a brief local thunderstorm later this afternoon. Winds could still be strong later this evening due to the pressure and temp gradient.
original post Sunday Feb 27 evening
I hope you all enjoyed the weather today! Come Monday we will see storms, similar to those we saw this past Friday.
1. rain to start for most after 10:00 pm tonight, continue through Monday
2. thunderstorms possible late afternoon, with period s of heavy rain and wind
3. Monday evening into Tuesday we will have very strong winds, 40+ mph
Given the dynamics of this storm we are looking at the potential for tornadoes and hail, along with the strong winds we will all experience.
A warm front enters our area from the South and will be here Tuesday. As the warm front reaches the MD/PA line it will stall, allowing for a Southerly wind flow and rain. The rain Monday evening into Tuesday morning will be light rain, but come the afternoon and early evening, there will be locally heavy rainfall rates. Come Tuesday afternoon a Low and a cold front approach our area, dropping temps and changing the winds to the NW. This change in pressure and temperature will cause strong winds and tornado possibility. Later Tuesday as all of this moves out of the area a High pressure system builds in, not only giving us strong winds due to the pressure gradient, but the falling air will bring down the upper level strong winds closer to the surface.
I am still watching the March 6 storm, but to be honest I do not put much stock in it. I have mentioned it again since I first told you about it a couple weeks ago, and now there are some favorable dynamics for a snow storm, but there are also many non-favorable dynamics. So, I am watching it and mentioning it so you won't be surprised if it happens. But at this point, I wouldn't change any plans.
I would not be surprised to see thunderstorm and wind alerts issued by the NWS. I will keep the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated and will also be using the Twitter account to keep people updated more frequently as conditions change, and I will tweet about watches/warnings. If you have Twitter find me #wxmanMD. If you don't have a Twitter account you can still follow me by going to this website: www.twitter.com/#wxmanMD
Updated: 8:53 PM GMT on February 28, 2011
By: cws6196, 2:14 AM GMT on February 27, 2011
original post Saturday Feb 26 evening
I am now on Twitter! If you do not have an account you can still follow me at this link: http://twitter.com/wxmanMD If you have a Twitter account follow me: @wxmanMD
I am watching the chance for strong thunderstorms on Monday, more about that later Sunday. A couple weeks ago I mentioned the possibility of another snow storm around March 5 or so. A few days ago I stated that I no longer saw it as a possibility - well, let me just say I am watching it closely right now.
For those in Central MD who wish to be on my weather email list, please send me your email address and I will add you to my list. You may send it through Weather Underground by clicking the "contact me" link near my picture, or just comment this post with it.
I will have another update later Sunday.
By: cws6196, 11:55 AM GMT on February 25, 2011
original post Friday Feb 25 morning
Today's weather will be similar to a Spring pattern as I am looking at the potential for strong thunderstorms later this afternoon.
1. Southern MD could see very strong winds later this morning
2. all of us will see strong winds this afternoon into this evening
3. thunderstorms could develop later this afternoon, between 1 - ??
4. periods of heavy rain
5. potential for Tornadoes (2% risk according to the Storm Prediction Center). Keep an eye on the skies
This morning a warm front and a strong Low pressure will come into the area from the South, bringing warm air and gusty winds. Later this afternoon, after the warm front leaves the area, a cold front from the NW comes into the area. Not only are there strong upper level winds, the temp and pressure difference are part of the dynamics which will bring the winds and tornado chances.
I will keep the Weather Phone (43-470 4-9804) updated. Please keep an eye on the sky this afternoon. If you wish to sign up for my text messages of warnings and severe weather let me know. Feel free to recruit others.
By: cws6196, 5:46 AM GMT on February 23, 2011
update Wednesday Feb 23 Midnight
Well, a look at the latest data shows we may not be seeing snow. Here is how I see it:
It appears that my concern about timing will occur, taking away the chance for snow. We can see rain Thursday through Friday afternoon, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Flood advisories or watches to be posted by Friday morning. We could see over an inch of rain on top of the snow left on the ground.
Also, there is a chance for thunderstorms Friday afternoon. As I had been saying, a cold front moves through Friday. While I initially thought the cold front would bring snow, but since the front is moving through at the "wrong time", and given the warm air coming up from the South, creates an environment conducive for thunderstorms. I am not saying these will be strong storms, but anyone who experiences the storms will have gusty winds as the main threat.
After the cold front comes through the rest of Friday into Friday night we all will have gusty winds.
END OF MONTH & BEGINNING OF MARCH
Again, timing is not our friend if you want snow. Each of the times I saw the chance for snow, I now see the "cold line" North of our area. I am aware that model data does fluctuate this far out, but I am also aware of climatology. This time of the year I would tend to forecast toward the warmer versus colder air, therefore more rain storms.
As I previously stated, if we do not see any snow through the first week or so of March I will feel confident to call off our snow chances for this season.
I will keep the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated especially if there are flooding for thunderstorm advisories issued.
original post Tuesday Feb 22 Midnight
I hope everyone enjoyed the beauty of the snowfall this morning. I must admit, hassles aside, given the cloudless blue sky and the snow on the ground and trees, it was quite the sight! But is it the end of snow for us? I don't yet want to throw in the towel. As I said a couple days ago, if we don't see snow in the next few systems, then I will call it quits for this season (and begin my focus on Spring storms). So let's wait another week or so before I feel we are done with the white stuff.
As I mentioned well over a week ago, I have been watching 3 areas of interest for us regarding potential snow:
No one yet talking about this one, and I am not overly confident myself, but I do see a chance for those along the MD/PA line to see some light snow late Friday evening. A couple models show this while others do not. Here is my hesitancy: if the rains end late afternoon Friday, then there is no snow chance; if the rains continue into late Friday night, and the temp drops, then I see the snow chance. Right now I see it as a shot, but I will continue to monitor it.
END OF THE MONTH
There is a chance for snow around Tuesday. It is too early to say for sure, but I have been watching this for some time now and there is some consistency. "If" it happens it could be another snow like the one we just had. I will continue to monitor.
MARCH 5 - 8
Too far out to say anything more other then I have been, and will continue to, keep an eye on this.
I will have an update on the Friday snow chances late Wednesday.
Updated: 5:14 AM GMT on February 24, 2011
By: cws6196, 5:26 AM GMT on February 14, 2011
update Monday Feb 21 Midnight
As I write this it is still snowing and I have about 3 inches on the ground. My forecast appears to be holding true. The light snowfall should continue past Midnight with brief periods of heavier snowfall. All in all I believe the accumulations I forecast will hold true.
I see this as ending a bit prior to the bulk of the rush hour as it began a bit earlier.
For those in MD who follow this blog, please know that I have a weather email list service as well as a text alert service, all free. If interested email me here at Weather Underground. Enjoy the snow!!!
update Monday Feb 21 early afternoon
Well, the NWS has moved closer to my forecast in it's accumulation rates and in posting the Warning for those North of Baltimore. Precip start time, change over to snow, and accumulation rates will all go from the West to the Southeast. Those South of Baltimore will see a change over to snow much later then the rest with accumulation rates much lower.
TIMING (keep in mind the above)
1. After 5:00pm the precip will slowly turn over to snow
2. After Midnight those South of Baltimore will see snow
3. This should be over around 8:00am or so
1. Those closer to the MD/PA line; Western MD and Harford Co will see the highest accumulation around 6 - 8 inches with locally heavier amounts
2. Those North of Baltimore will see around 5 - 7 or so
3. Those in Southern MD could see an inch or two, but that might even be pushing it
4. The heaviest precip will occur just after Midnight
As I previously mentioned, the timing of the cold air and the Low is crucial, although all indications tell me the timing will happen. But, if it doesn't, these amounts would be less (but don't count on it). The accumulations are also dependent on how long the rain lasts and how warm the ground is. The accumulations I have stated are for grassy areas and not paved surfaces, which more then likely will see less accumulation.
As I have been saying for many days now, I am watching the end of this week and the end of the month as well as the beginning of March for more snow chances. My main focus is this coming Friday evening and between March 4 - 7 (give or take). The latter having the greater shot for accumulation while this Friday evening, if it snows, would be light.
I will have another update later this evening. The Weather Phone (443-470-9804) is updated and feel free to leave accumulation rates on the phone as well as any questions/concerns you may have.
Also, for those in MD who follow this blog, please know that I have a weather email list service as well as a text alert service, all free. If interested email me here at Weather Underground.
update Monday Feb 21 Noon
The NWS has upped the Watch to a Warning with accumulations up to 7 inches for those North of Baltimore.
update Monday Feb 21 morning
Well, just yesterday the NWS forecast only a slight possibility of snow, now they have issued a Watch similar to what I had been saying for a number of days now. This watch is only for those North, West and Northeast of Baltimore City. I will keep you posted with an update later today.
WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM EST THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUES MORNING.
THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN BALTIMORE MD/WA HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH.WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM EST
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUES MORNING.
* PRECIPITATION TYPE.MAINLY SNOW. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET IS
POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET.
* ACCUMULATIONS.A POTENTIAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.
* TIMING.SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING & CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT & 6AM.
* TEMPS.TEMPS IN THE LWR 30S THIS EVENING.
DROPPING TO THE MID 20S BY TUES MORNING.
* WINDS.NORTH-NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW & SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
update Sunday Feb 20 early afternoon
It looks like what I said yesterday continues to apply. I will have more detail by Monday morning, but here is how I see it:
Rain will slowly turn over to snow after Midnight Monday into Tuesday, with all snow by the morning commute.
1. This system and the precip type is fully dependent on timing. The cold air must get here ahead of, or with the Low. If the Low arrives ahead of the cold air we will see more rain and less snow. The opposite is true.
2. Assuming my forecast holds true, some of the heaviest snowfall will occur during the morning commute on Tuesday.
1. Those in Southern MD could see an inch or two of snow.
2. Those around the Baltimore area about 2 - 4 inches
3. Those North of Baltimore 3 - 6 inches with the larger amounts along the MD/PA line
As I mentioned a few days ago, I am watching the end of this week and the end of the month as well as the beginning of March for more snow chances. My main focus is this coming Friday evening and between March 4 - 7 (give or take). The latter having the greater shot for accumulation while this Friday evening, if it snows, would be light.
As we move through the first week or so of March and do not see any significant snows I would then call this snow season over. Given the effects of La Nina and the very cold temps most of the nation has seen this Winter, I do see our Spring as one of strong and severe thunderstorms with tornadoes. As we move into March I will post MD tornado stats, but just know that I do see us as having quite the stormy Spring. Of course I will keep you posted.
I will update again Monday morning and have the Weather Phone (443-470-9804) updated as necessary
update Saturday Feb 19 early afternoon
I hope all of you still have power given these winds. As you read the wind reports keep in mind that to classify as a tropical storm wind speeds start at 38 mph.
Ok, on to the Winter weather. A look at the latest data and trends says to me that we will see snow Tuesday, the issue though is how much. This system is dependent on timing and placement. Any change in either parameter will give us nothing, or a good size snow storm. Just so you know, the local NWS is currently downplaying our snow potential.
1. Sunday night we will see rain
2. Monday we could have some rain in the evening, changing over to snow late lasting into Tuesday morning
3. Those North of Baltimore City closer to the MD/PA line could see multiple inches more then those in the city
4. Those in Southern MD will see a lot less snow
This is preliminary, but most of us should see about 3 or so inches with around 2 in the City. Those North of Baltimore could see closer to 5 inches. But again, any shift in the pattern will drastically change these amounts. In reality, I do believe most of us will see on average 2 - 4 inches. But don't be surprised if later I up these amounts.
I am still watching the potential for snow the beginning of March. I will have another update later this weekend.
update Thursday Feb 17 Midnight
Friday will be nicest day we have had in a long time. Almost makes you forget about the white stuff - but not me! As I mentioned in my last post, I have been watching next week for some time now, specifically Tuesday and Thursday of next week. Well, Tuesday is looking promising for the snow lovers, while Thursday should be a rain event. I'll explain.
Sunday night it appears the precip will be all rain as the Low moves in such a position as to bring in the warm Southern air. But that is followed by a cold front moving down into the area with an associated Low. Depending how far South that front goes will depend on the precip type, but right now it is looking as if it will be cold enough for snow.
This is still early, but it does appear that after Midnight Tuesday morning we could see snow falling. This may fall well into Tuesday with the temps still low enough for an all snow event. The local NWS forecast is calling for a mixed precip, but they have been upping the snow chances in the last couple forecasts. I am fairly confident in us seeing snow Tuesday.
Now you all know it is too early for me to be stating anything definitive, but the data shows a couple inches as probable, while some data hints at 6 or more inches. I never want to hype the weather, so for now I am just saying I have seen model data to indicate those amounts; I am not yet forecasting those amounts.
This is my typical caution - it is way too early for any confidence in a forecast. BUT, I do feel you need to know that we will see snow Tuesday, and the "potential" exists for some decent accumulation. Any shift in the cold front just 50 or so miles to the North and we have rain or nothing.
... be prepared for snow Tuesday, but I will not yet commit to an amount, although the "possibility" exists for a decent amount of snow.
This may not be the end of snow for us, as the long range shows the possibility for snow the end of the month and then again the beginning of March. I will continue to monitor, but you heard it here first.
I will give another update sometime this weekend.
update Tuesday Feb 15 Midnight
As I mentioned in my last post, Winter is not yet done with us, and as the temps rise this week, they will again fall over the weekend. I also mentioned that I was tracking some weather next week, but temps will be the issue. Will it be cold enough for snow? Not too sure yet, but this I will say - we shouldn't be seeing any major storms the rest of this month.
1. Sunday into Monday looks to be a rain event for us as the Low will be moving to the NW of us, as such bringing up the warm air from the South (as it spins counter clockwise). Those along the MD/PA line and up into the Northern most reaches of Harford Co have a very slight chance to see the white stuff.
2. One model hints at snow on Tuesday; too early to say but I will be monitoring
3. Thursday looks to be a precip day, but again, it appears the position of the Low will put us on the warm end of the storm.
4. Saturday could be a good shot for us for some snow (not this Saturday), but it is way too early for any confidence. But I will be watching it as it could be a coastal storm. We shall see.
So, during this boring weather week I don't have any definite info to give you regarding next week as it is too early, but know I am tracking it and at least you have an idea of the days next week when some form of precip will be falling. I will keep you posted in another day or so.
original post Sunday Feb 13 Midnight
Well, this coming week we are entering a period of weather I officially call "boring". Most people call it by it's many nice attributes, while I maintain my use of the description "boring". But, for those who find solace in this boring weather, enjoy the warm weather, only to get warmer as the week progresses. But remember, this is only February, not May.
Come this weekend the temps will fall to more of a normal range for this time of the year. Following this coming weekend there are a couple chances for precip to enter the area. The question, though, will be the temps. Will these moments of precip be rain or snow? Way too early to tell. But, I wanted you all to know that during this "boring" weather pattern I will be watching the weather for the week following this one.
Updated: 5:28 AM GMT on February 22, 2011
By: cws6196, 5:12 PM GMT on February 06, 2011
update Wednesday Feb 9 dinner
Ok, no matter what I said yesterday about no posts for awhile, did you really think you would be rid of me that easily? .... Just a quick note to mention the system seems to be moving a bit to the North and West, just as I cautioned last night. BUT, this does not mean we are in for a good storm. All this means is that most of us will see some snow falling overnight and may even have a dusting or so in Central MD. Eastern Baltimore Co and Harford Co could see an inch or so as well as those in Southern MD. If this does track even further West and North it could get interesting, but let's not get excited here.
If there are any other changes I will keep you posted.
update Tuesday Feb 8 Midnight
Well, as I promised, time for a verdict on what should happen Thursday ....
It appears to be a bust - no snow for us in Central MD. Here is my rationale: even though for over a week the models were trending a strong coastal Low to hit us, come Sunday the models moved that Low further to our South and more out to sea. I did not want to change my forecast until I saw a trend, and basically, since Sunday, the models continue to show the storm moving out to sea. I also looked at other data and influences and feel we won't see snow. Southern MD may pick up an inch or two come Thursday as the Low will come close to you, but that is it.
Ok, that said, here is my caution - who here remembers Christmas 2010 when I said we would be hit by a large storm and it missed us, dumping on Philly and points North. What happened then was the coastal Low shifted only 75 miles to the North, missing us by that close of a margin. So, if this Low shifts to the NW by only 75 or 100 miles we could see some decent snow. What are the odds of this happening? Not great nor probable, but possible. A couple recent model runs "hint" at this. But my official forecast is for no snow.
Assuming my forecast holds true and nothing happens Thursday, there is no severe weather in the extended forecast for us until around the end of the month. Next week we will see a warm up, but don't think it is Spring, just a warm up that will end, and there are still chances for snow later in the month.
Since I only post about severe and Winter weather, a lull in the pattern (assuming nothing happens Thursday. IF I see a change in the forecast I will let you know) means a lull in my posts. Don't think I have gone anywhere, trust me, I will be pestering you as soon as there is a hint of snow. In the meantime, if you want more info on my feelings about the weather click this link: http://youtu.be/tN8xOv16X_s)
update Monday Feb 7 Midnight
As I write this the precip is not as yet happening for me, but a look at the radar and satellite shows it will be raining/snowing here in a couple hours. As I previously mentioned, there won't be but more then a dusting to an inch, with most of us seeing a dusting or even less.
So, what's my verdict on the Thursday storm? Nothing definitive until late Tuesday. Why am I waiting? I still want to see trending in the data. Most of the data Monday showed what we saw Sunday, namely the Low moving off the coast to the South of us. That scenario would not give us any snow, although, Southern MD could pick up a couple inches. I hesitate only because I see some very slight movement of the Low back to the NW. The NAO appears to be going positive, and if that happens we will see the Low go off the coast and out to sea.
... Give me one more day to review the data before I call this a bust or snow for Thursday. Even though I saw a slight movement to the NW, I may be forced to call this a bust. But, one more day of trending and then I will be more definitive. I am not one to follow the data blindly, plus I don't want to put people on an "on again" "off again" pattern either. So for now, I leave it at a chance. Here is what the local NWS wrote in their discussion tonight: "GIVEN THE DIFFICULT STORM TRACK FORECASTS THIS WINTER SEASON WE ACKNOWLEDGE THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AT THIS POINT."
I will have another update late Tuesday.
update Sunday Feb 6 Midnight
So, where were you a year ago? See my pictures on this site to remind yourself. Yes, it was a year ago when the first of two blizzards in a matter of days hit our area. That was some fun forecasting and blogging .... !
Regarding the Mon/Tues system, no real update from my previous post. The model data does have the coastal Low a bit closer to us then previous runs, but still not close enough to effect Central MD, nor do I see it moving any further West. Those States to our NE will see the coastal Low phase with the clipper from the West to provide them some decent snow, but for us, no phasing and no coastal Low, so only a dusting or an inch of snow by Tuesday morning.
Now for the Thursday system: allow me a moment of commentary. For the past many days the model data has been showing us being hit by a coastal storm. All the data on Sunday took the storm away from us by moving it South and out to sea. All of the weather sources and meteorologists I follow have thus given up on the storm, with one even mentioning that Winter is over for us! People, it is still early Feb, not April. Ok, here is my quick rant - why are people following the day to day model data and changing their forecasts each time the data changes? Trends, real world data, and climatology need to come into consideration, as well as the notion that the model data does tend to change course, especially this far out.
.... For now I am sticking with a potential for a significant storm for us this Thursday. Could I be wrong and need to change my forecast? Sure that could happen, and yes, everyone else "may" be right. My issue is that I want to see a trend in the data. Let's keep in mind that the storm I am talking about has not yet even formed! Therefore, I do not believe we have enough data to make definitive statements either way.
I will continue to monitor this storm and it's trends before making any definitive statement either way. I will have another update Monday night on both the Tuesday and Thursday storms. Thanks for listening to my rant ...
original post Sunday Feb 6 Noon
Enjoy the warm days while you have it, cause as I first mentioned last week, there are two systems with the potential to effect us this week.
The first system is a clipper coming in late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Here is how I see it:
1. Late Tuesday afternoon (more like dinner time), the precip will start as rain given the warm air coming up from the South.
2. As the clipper and associated cold front enter the area, the rain will turn over to snow. This won't happen until well after Midnight and is dependent on how long it takes for the cold air to take over the warm air.
3. The precip should be over around 10 or so Tuesday morning. ACCUMULATIONS of only an inch or so with many seeing only a dusting. Southern MD misses this one.
Onward to the bigger storm potential: Wed into Thurs looks to be interesting. This is a coastal storm carrying with it lots of moisture. A couple days ago the model data showed the storm hugging the coast, while today it has the storm heading out to sea. But, keep in mind we are many days away and this is typical for the data. Plus, generally speaking, the models tend to pull theses systems to the West as the event nears. If that is the case, being out to sea now is a good thing for snow lovers as it will then move the Low closer to the coast rather than inland, bringing us an all rain event.
... more to come in future updates, but know there is the potential for something big the end of this week. For those not happy by this keep in mind that two possible scenarios other then snow do exist: 1. going out to sea and we have nothing; 2. moving inland and we have rain.
MY THOUGHT ...
... I am confident we will have a snow event the end of this week. The trending is there, the NAO is going negative, and given the clipper this Tuesday there could be blocking in place. The question, as always, is how much? I will not venture an answer to that this far out.
I am not a fan of long range forecasting, but, nonetheless, Valentines week appears to be a warm up for us, but do not be fooled into Spring just yet. The long range shows us back into the freezer the end of Feb with some storm systems moving through. Stay tuned ....
I plan to have another update later tonight and then regularly this week to keep everyone up to date on the end of the week.
Updated: 11:36 PM GMT on February 09, 2011
By: cws6196, 2:46 PM GMT on February 05, 2011
"Thursday, February 5 is National Weatherman's Day, commemorating the birth of John Jeffries in 1744. Jeffries, one of America's first weather observers, began taking daily weather observations in Boston in 1774 and he took the first balloon observation in 1784. This is a day to recognize the men and women who collectively provide Americans with the best weather, water, and climate forecasts and warning services of any nation.
"Many of us take weather information for granted. Turn on a light switch, you get light. Turn on your television or radio, or check a web site and you get the weather forecast. It’s easy to forget that around the clock, dedicated meteorologists and weathercasters are vigilantly creating forecasts to help you plan your day, and issuing warnings to help keep you safe." (quoted from the NWS site)
Let us remember those dedicated people who sit in front of computer screens in windowless rooms for hours to keep us safe, and those who put their lives at risk to chase storms, not simply for the thrill, but to gather the data which will ultimately keep us safer. And on those days when the weather does not cooperate with a forecast, please remember two things: 1. they are but the messenger, 2. my quote on my signature line: "It's a forecast; not a promise". The more data collected and the more observations made, the better forecasts will be and the safer we will be.
I am proud of those who have gone before us and those currently working to keep us safe.
By: cws6196, 5:30 AM GMT on February 02, 2011
update Saturday Feb 5 morning
The NWS has extended the time on the Freezing Rain Advisory until 1:00pm for those North of Baltimore.
Later today I will post an update regarding the potential storms next week.
update Thursday Feb 3 Midnight
Well, it appears our typical Winter pattern for this year is at it again - storms to the North and West of us while we have mixed precip. With one big exception, that is how I said our year would be and this is how it has been. So comes the weekend.
This weekend will be mainly a rain event. Looks like the precip will start around Midnight or a bit thereafter. For those North of Baltimore you could see snow and freezing rain, accumulating not more then half an inch. By Saturday morning it will be all rain throughout most of the day. Those along the MD/PA line could see some snow or freezing rain, but again, nothing much.
It is still early, but the storm I had been mentioning for the beginning of the week looks to be a repeat of this weekend, so not a major issue. The storm I am watching the end of the week does look like it has potential for some good snow, but before I jump on the blizzard bandwagon with others, I want to wait a bit to see what is happening. But the potential is there .....
I will keep the Weather Phone updated and will post another update over the weekend concerning the end of the week storm.
update Wednesday Feb 2 Midnight
Given the wind we had Wednesday I am so glad there wasn't a layer of ice on the trees and powerlines. So what does it look like for this weekend? Well, it appears La Nina is active in regard to our weather, at least for the moment. I do not yet have confidence in the forecast for this weekend as it is still a number of days away, so timing and accumulations will have to wait until at least Thursday night. But here is how I see it:
1. Late Friday the precip moves up the coast and hits Central MD as snow or sleet
2. Saturday most likely will be a rain event
3. A chance for snow from the back side of the Low later Saturday, but accumulations should be low
Unfortunately I do see our snow chances for this storm as minimal given the position of the Low and the forecast for a positive NAO (typically does not bring us snow storms. We need a negative to a neutral NAO for strong coastal storms). The Low will simply bring in warm Southern air as it moves up the coast. This could happen to us early next week as well. It wont be until mid next week that we will be heavily entrenched in cold arctic air. Then our chances for snow increase.
I am watching a few systems in the future, one Monday night into Tuesday (7-8), then later Thursday into Friday (10-11) and possibly the 13th or so. Winter is not yet done with us as cold air returns later next week and stays with us for some time.
I will keep the Weather Phone updated as necessary and will have another update late Thursday evening.
original post Tuesday Feb 1 Midnight
As I have been mentioning for some time now I am tracking the potential storm this weekend and mid next week. It is still too far off for much certainty, but, at this early date here is how I see the weekend storm (I am not at all going to talk about the other storm which is over a week away):
1. The potential for snow exists, but currently the model data moves the Low up the coast in such away as it brings the warm Southern air into our area, meaning another rain event for us.
2. But, I do see the chance for snow later Saturday as the Low pushes to our North and the wrap around cold air enters the precip, turning it to snow or mixed precip.
More to come in the following days. I will keep the Weather Phone updated as necessary.
Updated: 2:13 PM GMT on February 05, 2011