I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.
By: cws6196, 2:42 PM GMT on August 29, 2010
update Friday morning
Well, it looks like this is all we will see from Earl in Southern and Central MD. He is moving NNE almost parallel to OC right now. All the cloud cover we have is from Earl, and any rain is also from Earl.
Gaston faded away and Fiona is no where near us, so for now, all is quiet as far as our weather is concerned. As today progresses the weather will improve, and then from the weekend into next week it will be nice weather (boring for me).
update Thursday afternoon
All appears to be playing out as forecast, so no real changes to what I have previously stated. Southern MD may see some rain and wind Friday morning, while the rest of Central MD will remain dry. Those in Central MD may have some rain showers later Friday, but these are NOT from Earl, rather, they are from the cold front moving in which has kept Earl out to sea; so if it rains Friday afternoon in Central MD, be thankful for the cold front that is bringing that rain.
Any deviation of Earl's path to the West will change my forecast, but I do not see him deviating, although hurricanes do have a mind of their own. I am still watching Gaston and will focus more on that system once Earl is out of the picture.
update Wednesday night
My previous discussion and forecast appear to be on track. Earl is thus far moving as planned, and the trough from the Great Lakes is also progressing. Granted, it is still early and hurricanes can have a mind of their own, but at this pace it appears MD (minus the coast), will be spared the brunt of Earl.
As I see it, those in Southern MD have a slight chance for strong winds and rain, but to be honest, on it's current path, I don't even see Southern MD feeling the effects. Although water levels will be high, especially at high tide, and waves could be over 3 feet Friday into the afternoon. Those in Central MD will not even know anything is happening.
If there are any drastic changes to this forecast I will let you know, but I am as confident as I can be that this is how it will play out. The next system to watch is Gaston, but that is next week's project (if it is headed our way).
update Tuesday night
Not too much to update tonight. The path and timing is about the same as when I updated you last evening. The word of the evening is: timing. The cold front which is coming from the Great Lakes which will help to move Earl off of the coast, needs to arrive as Earl is in position. If Earl arrives sooner then the front, Earl will have a more Westerly track toward the mainland.
It appears the local NWS has been reading my posts (hehe). Here is their latest post to other meteorologists: "WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST PATH/STRENGTH UPON PASSAGE OFF THE COAST...THE LOWER MD BAY/TIDAL POTOMAC INLET AREA WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO RECEIVE THE VERY WESTERNMOST EDGE OF ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN BANDS AND/OR GRADIENT WINDS ABOVE 20KT. FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE CNTRL APLCNS - LITTLE DIRECT IMPACT IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST PATH. A SLIGHT DEVIATION IN THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE EFFECTS CLOSER TO INLAND AREAS...MAINLY OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND JUST EAST OF I-95." Almost exactly what I stated in my last post.
So what does all this mean? As I have been saying, Southern MD and the Eastern shore should see the effects of Earl Friday. This could include heavy rain and strong winds. But, a slight deviation in the path to the West, and Baltimore could see rain as well. More then likely, Central MD will be spared any effects from Earl.
Fiona is not an issue for us at all as she will stay well out to sea. Timing is everything in this forecast. Earl needs to meet up with the front coming from the Great Lakes at just the right time for the front to move Earl further out to sea. If either of these forces changes speed and does not meet up, then Earl will move closer to the coast, giving Southern MD a stronger storm, and Baltimore some rain.
update Monday night
Not all that much to mention at this time. Each update from the National Hurricane Center on Monday shifted Earl further to the West, closer to the Atlantic coast. But, even though they have shifted Earl closer, that does not mean he will make landfall here. Keep in mind that when you look at a tracking map, there is a margin of error of about 200 to 300 miles. Meaning, the eye could pass within a 300 mile radius of the line drawn on the map.
The NHC has placed our area in a 20% chance for tropical storm conditions, while the local NWS is down playing the effects of Earl on our area. How do I see it? At this time, I do not believe we will have a hit from Earl directly, but given how I feel Earl will pass the area, those especially in Southern MD will be effected by tropical storm conditions, while the rest of Central MD may see some rain, light wind and clouds. Of course, the caveat is that this storm is still too far off for any certainty. I will have a better idea come Wednesday afternoon into the evening. Any effects from Earl will be felt in the wee hours of the morning Friday into the afternoon Friday.
But wait ... there's more ... Fiona!! Currently Fiona is forecast to follow a very similar track as that of Earl, although she will be less powerful of a storm. I will be watching her, but am not too confident she will be an issue for us. Any effects from Fiona won't be felt until the end of this weekend into early next week.
update Sunday night
Well, the latest for Earl is somewhat similar to previous data; it looks that Earl will strengthen into a fairly major hurricane. The good news is that I still do not see Earl making landfall along the mid-Atlantic states. But, as this is forecast to be a major hurricane, the effects of Earl will be felt far inland.
As of the latest figures, we in MD have a 10% chance for tropical storm force winds and heavy rain. Winds would be in the upper 30s to the 40s with rain potential measured in multiple inches. Those on the shore of any major body of water which has any connection to the ocean should see a significant rise in the water level, coupled with the high winds creating heavy surf.
We do not yet want to get ahead of ourselves with this storm. What we do know for certain is it will be a strong hurricane. What we know fairly well is it will not make landfall in MD. What we don't know is exactly how far or close to the coast the center of the storm will be. What I am studying is the forecast for what is called an upper level trough to come out of the Great Lakes later in the week. Depending on the strength, timing and actual position of the trough will influence the direction and position of the storm in relation to the coast.
To summarize: we have a 10% chance for tropical storm conditions to impact MD late Thursday into Friday. This would include high winds, much rain, coastal flooding.
I will keep you posted with updates here and the Weather Phone (443-470-9804). If you have any questions or concerns feel free to comment here or leave them on the Weather Phone.
original post Sunday morning
Well, I have been quiet about the tropics because nothing happening in the tropics has had any potential of effecting us here in MD. Until now. TS Earl is out there and strengthening. None of the current model data have Earl necessarily making landfall in MD, but they do bring him close enough to the MD coast where even Baltimore could feel the effects (rain, wind, minor flooding).
In my opinion, given the data I have at the moment, we will not have a direct hit, but will feel the effects.
This is very preliminary and could change. If the track sticks to the schedule, late Thursday into Friday is when we will see the effects. Of course I will be monitoring this and keeping you posted. But right now no need to change any plans; just keep this scenario in mind as something potential.
Updated: 2:05 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
By: cws6196, 6:27 PM GMT on August 16, 2010
The set up is looking good for storms this afternoon. A cold front is pushing through, during the warmest period of the day, which will trigger the storms. The main threat from these storms will be wind. Currently, I think Central MD and Northern Harford / Cecil county will be the greatest threat for the severe storms.
Timing: most of us should see storm activity around 4:00 to 7:00 or so. Storm cells are already popping up in Western MD.
By: cws6196, 3:15 PM GMT on August 02, 2010
Tuesday evening Update
Here is a quick update on the tropics - we are in the clear. It appears Tropical Storm Colin will fizzle out shortly and become a remnant low. The path of this low will be toward the South East coast of the US. There is a chance for this system to re-generate into a tropical storm as it nears the East coast, but even if this were to occur, we in Central MD have nothing to worry about. Those along the coast would see an increase in the surf and possible rip currents, but that should be the extent of it.
I will keep you posted if there are any changes to what I have forecast.
As you know, I do not typically forecast the tropics, just the weather effecting Central and Southern MD. But, the newly formed Tropical Depression 4 bears some watching given the model data. PLEASE NOTE CAREFULLY: I am not at all saying this will hit us, but I am saying we need to keep on eye on it.
There are many factors and dynamics that can change the path of this storm as we are many days out and it is not yet even a tropical storm. I will continue to monitor this for you and will keep you updated.
As for our local weather this week, we can expect the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon (it is Summer time).
Updated: 3:56 AM GMT on August 04, 2010