I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.
By: cws6196, 1:01 PM GMT on May 31, 2010
May you all have a wonderful Memorial Day!! Let us not forget all those who came before us who sacrificed so much for us to have what we have this day!!
By: cws6196, 3:47 PM GMT on May 22, 2010
Wednesday evening update
Well, the tropical disturbance is not at all going to effect us. This will make for a nice weather weekend, once we get through Thursday night into Friday that is.
With a cold front moving in and an upper air disturbance, Thursday evening should prove to be exciting. Thursday daytime will be uneventful; sunny, hot, humid; all the key ingredients necessary for storms - now bring in the cold front ....
So, sometime after 5:00 pm most of us will see thunderstorms with some of the cells being severe. There is little threat for tornadoes, but those who do experience the strong cells can expect large hail, winds and potential for flash flooding. The thunderstorms will taper off into the early morning hours of Friday, but expect most of Friday to be cloudy and rainy, with the clouds breaking apart Saturday morning.
I will keep you posted as to any watches/warnings issued. I will keep the Weather Phone updated (443-470-9804) and feel free to leave storm reports / damage on the Phone.
Tuesday morning update
Well, it appears the tropical disturbance will not be an issue for us this weekend. Development is just not happening as the wind shear continues to break it apart and the water temps, even in the Gulf stream, will just not be warm enough to cause this system to form into anything of importance. The system continues to move toward the Carolina coast, but after Wednesday should push back out to sea without ever making landfall. This is a result of a cold front and low pressure system coming in from the North which will push the system out to sea (technically it is referred to as a back door front with a subsequent trough. The east side of the trough will guide the system out to the E and then NE. To graphically think of a trough think the letter "U").
But, this same front that will push away the tropical disturbance has the potential to bring us severe weather Thursday into Friday. We could see severe thunderstorms and some flash flooding. Other then that the weekend should fine. I will keep you posted as to the end of the week storms.
As most of you know, I am not a fan of long range forecasts of weather conditions. I shy away from predictions more then a few days out as there are too many variables. So why am I talking about Memorial Day weekend which is a week away? Since that weekend is an outdoor time for so many people, I want to start looking at what "may" be an issue for us: a tropical system. Yup, you read that right. June 1 is the official start of the hurricane season, but we already have an area of interest NE of the Bahamas officially classified as Invest 90L.
Systems this early in the season typically do not amount to much as the waters of the Atlantic are just not warm enough for development. You may be questioning, what is the issue with a system NE of the Bahamas, isn't it moving out to sea? Nope. If you recall the blizzards of only a few months ago, the dynamic that kept those lows over the mid-Atlantic is the same dynamic (among others) which is moving this system back toward the Atlantic coast. Tropical systems need strong low pressure, warm waters and low wind shear for maximum development. This system is currently over cooler waters with a somewhat strong wind shear.
Ok, enough of the set up. Here is how I see things. 90L will continue to meander toward the SE US coast with the circulation causing gale force winds from S. VA down to FL with some estimates of 18 foot seas along the coast. As this system gets closer to the coast (mid week) it will encounter the Gulf stream (warm water) and much less wind shear, thus allowing for development into at least a tropical storm. By Saturday or so this system (potential tropical storm) could impact the NC coast. Depending on the intensity of the storm and the exact track will determine what we experience. Best case, we have a cloudy somewhat rainy weekend, worst case, Southern MD has moderate winds, high waters, and thunderstorms.
As this system is still weak, the computer models don't yet have a good handle on this. Again, I do not like long range forecasts, so keep in mind that what I just wrote could all break apart and be nothing. But then again, it could be something. I will keep you all posted as the week progresses.
Updated: 3:37 AM GMT on May 27, 2010
By: cws6196, 2:56 PM GMT on May 21, 2010
The weather around here as been quite uneventful ... boring even (for me who loves storms). This weekend will not at all be a wash out, but most of us will see some rain in the afternoon/evening on Saturday and again possibly on Sunday. There does exist a chance for thunderstorms, but "if" you experience one it will not be severe, just sit back and watch the light show.
I will update the Weather Phone as necessary.
By: cws6196, 4:49 AM GMT on May 12, 2010
update Thursday evening
Friday will start off quiet but has the potential for severe storms in the afternoon. These storms will likely form after 1:00 pm, closer to 4:00 or so. A warm front moves in from the South Friday morning while a cold front moves in from the NW in the late afternoon. These plus other features add up to the potential of strong storms. If you encounter these storms large hail and damaging wind will be the main features. Those North and West of Baltimore are at greatest risk, but anyone West of the Chesapeake could see some storms.
I would not be surprised if advisories or watches are issued as the day progresses. I will keep the Weather Phone updated. If you do encounter storms, please leave me a message on the Weather Phone detailing any damage or hail.
update Thursday morning
A quick update to state there will be no rain or storms today. Expect the possibility of storms Friday afternoon. As I know more I will update this blog.
Looks like we are heading into a period of some unsettled weather. The cool air we have been experiencing will be moving out Wednesday as a warm front moves in and stalls just to our North. With a lack of clouds and a warm front, expect the heating of the day to produce some instability Wednesday afternoon into evening. There is a good probability for pop up type thunderstorms of no concern, but there is a chance, slight, of a line of thunderstorms forming late afternoon / early evening. If this holds true, those experiencing these storms could have hail and damaging winds. Those North and East of Baltimore are at greatest risk for this type of scenario.
For Thursday and Friday expect much of the same; off and on rain, scattered thunderstorms. I will keep the Weather Phone updated.
Updated: 2:20 AM GMT on May 14, 2010
By: cws6196, 2:11 PM GMT on May 01, 2010
Sunday late evening UPDATE
A current look at the radar shows a long line of storms extending the length of the East coast and situated around the Appalachians moving NNE. There is some lightening activity around Baltimore, with the bulk of the storms in PA at this moment. The system is not moving as fast as originally thought, and the atmosphere, although unstable, does have what is called a "cap" in place that is not as yet being broken. Thus no storms as of this writing for our area.
Those in Central MD will see rain and storms well after Midnight into the early afternoon of Monday. The storms may not be as severe as first thought, but a few of them still have the potential for hail and strong wind.
The Weather Phone is updated and I will keep you all posted as the storms progress. Keep in mind though there is the potential for severe weather overnight, so if you have a weather radio (highly recommended) please ensure it is turned on.
Sunday morning UPDATE
My previous post still stands in that there is a good chance for thunderstorms later this evening into Monday. I am looking at storms to begin after 6:00 pm with the heaviest rain after Midnight. Storms will continue on Monday.
As I previously mentioned, the storms today will primarily affect those in the Baltimore metro area and W, N, and E. Southern MD should not be effected until Monday. Storms that develop will resemble the storms of last weekend wherein hail and wind are the primary factors of concern.
There is a 5% chance for tornado formation for those North of Baltimore and into PA.
I expect to see watches/warnings issued later in the day. Tuesday and Friday into Saturday are our next chances for severe weather. The Weather Phone (443-470-9804) is active and will be updated as necessary. Feel free to leave storm conditions and damage on the Weather Phone.
Another weekend and another chance for storms. But before Sunday's storms, enjoy this preview of Summer. As Sunday progresses the temps will rise close to the 90s and the humidity will rise right along with the temps. As the air gets moist and the temps increase, in comes the cold front from the NW; the prime catalyst for storms.
The storms will primarily be a threat for those around Baltimore, West, North and East. Not to say there wont be storms in Southern MD, but the chance is less. Don't let this threat ruin your weekend as any storms that do form will occur after 5:00 or later Sunday evening. When they do come in we can expect hail and strong winds.
As tomorrow progresses I expect for us to have watches / warnings issued. All my technology is again working, so I will keep you all updated here and on the weather phone (443-470-9804). Feel free to use the weather phone to leave me messages of storm damage and reports of hail, etc.
Updated: 3:45 AM GMT on May 03, 2010