update Thursday morning
In my last post I promised a more definite forecast by Thursday. As much as I hate to say this, I do believe we will experience a rain event for most of the day Sunday. The data does indicate a low off the coast, and had it not been for this warmer air, we would be looking toward quite the strong snow storm, especially this time of the year. But with all the warm air in place, I just don't see where this system can find the cold air to draw from. That said, don't be surprised if some of you see some snow flakes mixed with the rain, or short periods of snowfall on Sunday, but the primary precip will be rain with no winter accumulation to be found.
At this time I don't see any storms on the horizon.
update Wednesday Midnight
Allow me to again stress how I am reluctant to forecast too far in advance. The model data has been all over the place, and for those forecasters who simply follow the models, they are already changing the forecast for Sunday to rain. Even though they may be correct, it is too early to say that an adjustment in the models absolutely means it will stay that way.
The complication is how the models are handling the low and it's position. Some of them place the low closer to us and the coast, while others place it further South and more out to sea. Right now what I am waiting to see is how warm the week will actually become. The forecast is for a warming trend, but I am not convinced it will be as warm as forecast. If that is true, there will be more cold air Sunday then the models are taking into account. Another scenario I can see is the event beginning as rain and later turning to snow as the low pushes into New England and the counter-clockwise rotation brings down the cold air into our area.
All that said, I still feel we will see snow on Sunday, just not yet sure as to when and amounts. It is still early in the week. I will keep you posted and hope to have something more definite by Thursday or so.
Just remember, it is only the beginning of January, time is still available for snow storms. The next system I am keeping an eye on is the end of this weekend. But first, just to mention about the snow Monday night. "What snow" you say? Actually that is what I said when I heard it on the local forecast. No worries as I see it. There is a small clipper moving in and that is why there is mention of snow. But, as we saw Friday, even a good clipper brings only a couple inches, so out of this, for those that do see snow, it will be a dusting or so. Nothing to be excited about.
What we can be excited about is the next possibility. As you know, I don't like long range forecasts, but I mention this for two reasons: to let you know there "could" be an issue, and because the quite conservative local NWS has already mentioned it (I like to trump them, not the other way around, hehe). Here is what they said in their latest discussion: "THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OVER THE TX GULF COAST...BECOME A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED BUT THEN MAKE A FAIRLY QUICK MOVE TOWARD THE ATLC COAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND /AFTER POSSIBLY PHASING WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES/." In other words, a Gulf low up the coast (snow producers for us) which may combine with a system from the Great Lakes.
More to be revealed ...
Updated: 3:54 PM GMT on January 14, 2010
A A A