Central MD Weather Conditions

New Year's storm

By: cws6196, 4:27 PM GMT on December 26, 2009

update Thursday morning

Now that the event is happening I can make some modifications to my previous posts. Most of what I have said is still valid, namely, the current wintry mix will change to rain early this afternoon. Later in the afternoon will be a break from any precip. Later in the evening we could see some more wintry mix ending in the morning Friday. Those along the PA line could see an inch or so of accumulated snow.

What I am modifying is for those in Southern MD will see all rain with only a brief shot of mixed precip later tonight. Also, I no longer see a threat of precip on Friday.

Tomorrow expect gusty winds and the possibility of wind advisories being issued.

update Wednesday late morning

I just finished reading the NWS forecast discussion and you would think they read my blog. They also state their confidence is low in regard to forecasting amounts and exact timing. They echo my general time frames posted yesterday as well as the precip type.

I am sticking with my previous post as to the forecast. I expect precip to begin after Midnight Wednesday (Thursday morning). I have no doubt there will be various watches/warnings issued and I will keep weather phone updated( 443-470-9804 ).


update Tuesday morning

It doesn't look so bad anymore for us, more of a mess then anything else. It is still a tricky storm to forecast, so here is my reminder to you all: "It's a forecast; not a promise".

High confidence: my confidence is in what will happen. Wednesday late night into Thursday morning will be a mix of both snow and freezing rain. Thursday day will be primarily rain followed by snow in the evening. Friday morning and day will resemble Thursday. Accumulations will be low due to the rain and freezing rain mix. Should be less then 4 inches. This will not resemble the storm of the other weekend.

Low confidence: as this is a coastal low, timing, intensity and position are the key factors. These I am not too sure about as the models do not do well with this.

I will go out on a limb and say I am sticking with this forecast. What I am not as yet able to tell you is the timing of all of these precip transitions. If I feel more confident in further data runs I will let you know. I am still looking with interest at the possible storm of January 7 - 10. Please continue to check with the weather phone for updates as they happen ( 443-470-9804 ).


update Monday morning

This is not an easy forecast to do given the type of storm this will be. Confidence is high we will receive winter precip Thursday into Friday, but the details are sketchy. Why? This is a coastal low forming off the Carolina's and moving North. When this happens it is all about the strength of the low as well as the location of the low. Any shift West or East changes things dramatically. Since the low has not yet even formed, confidence in details is low.

But, how it looks at the moment: snow to begin Thursday later in the day/evening, turning to rain for those East of I-95 during the day Friday, only to turn back to snow Friday night. The heaviest snowfall appears to be around the PA line, with maybe only 4 inches or less in MD. But this is still a number of days away and model data and fluctuations will still occur.

On another note, expect strong winds today and tomorrow with the possibility of wind chill warnings being issued from the NWS later in the day.

update Sunday morning

The models are all over the place, but it appears there will be precip impacting our area Wednesday thru Friday. Not confident just yet as to type, but this is normal for the models this far out. I still see this as an issue and so will continue to monitor.

original
This is proving to be a very active Winter. The next system I am watching is the New Year's storm this week (could be another storm around January 7). I typically do not forecast this far in advance, but there appears to be enough consistency for me to look at this now.

The model data, NAO, and other factors seem to be leading in the same direction; a snow storm along the coast the end of the week. There is some evidence that this one would produce more snow then last week's storm and last a couple days.

Here is what the local NWS had to say this morning in their meteorologist discussion: "EXTENDED...THE ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM CONTINUES NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK WITH CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CAROLINAS IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. STAY TUNED FOR DETAILS ON ANOTHER SHOT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION."

Updated: 2:31 PM GMT on December 31, 2009

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Christmas weather

By: cws6196, 8:29 PM GMT on December 21, 2009

update on Christmas morning

Looks like the storm system slowed up quite a bit. We should still be receiving rain later today, but with the timing now looks like we have missed the freezing rain portion. It is times such as these when I am glad to be wrong. I hate ice.

May all of you have a very Blessed and Peace-filled Christmas!!!! Thank you for all of your support!


update Wednesday afternoon

Well, I think I am in a good enough position to say this is the final update for the weather for Christmas. I say this as the models have been consistent, although the timing remains an unknown.

Not much of a change from my previous post. The precip should begin late Thursday evening, falling as freezing rain through Friday morning. The timing of the change over to rain is uncertain, but for those travelling I would say a safe bet is anytime around 12:00 Noon until after sunset as the precip will be all rain (heavy at times). As the evening cools we could again see a change to freezing rain. Even if that change does not occur, I am expecting the water to freeze in the overnight.

Cautions and concerns are from ice and flooding as the rainfall could be heavy at times, plus the melting of the snow pack. I would not be surprised to see the NWS issue flood advisories, warnings, etc. Please consult my weather phone for up to the minute details (443-470-9804).


update Tues afternoon

Please remember, I am but the humble forecaster; a mere messenger and not the creator of the weather .... In my last post I mentioned my concern that the temps will not rise much above freezing due to the snow pack in place. Well, that is looking to pan out now in some of the model data.

Here is my current interpretation of the data: everyone reading this will see freezing rain with the "possibility" of a transition to all rain on Friday. The precip will start later Thursday afternoon in Southern MD and work it's way North. The temps on Friday could move beyond freezing, but with the snow and now freezing rain on top of it, the temp rise does not seem too likely (as I hinted earlier). This means most of us could experience a prolonged freezing rain event with the equivalent of an inch of rainfall. This has the potential to leave quite the coating of ice. So, Thursday night into most of Friday will be freezing rain with some periods of all rain, only to re-freeze Friday night with the chance for a light snow fall Saturday (on top of the ice).

Cautions: before anyone panics, this is only Tuesday. Also, the timing is still not as set as I would like it, and any fluctuation in the low and in the timing will effect the precip type.

Rationale: Why is this happening? Since it is so cold this week and the snow is cooling the surface, why are we even talking about rain? A low is forming in the South (similar to this past weekend), but is passing us to the West (instead of the coast as last weekend). As the low spins counter-clockwise it is drawing up the warmer air to the East of it's center (Maryland). As warm air is lighter and rises, it will ride on top of the cold air at the surface. Given the moisture in the atmosphere, it will rain as it passes the warm air aloft, only to freeze as it falls through the colder layer at the surface. Hence the reason that the placement and timing of the low can change things. As the warm air erodes the cold air the precip changes to rain.

original

We just finished one storm and now we talk about the next. But, to be honest, even I am not liking what I have to say. The synopsis: rain and ice. This far out I don't want to get too detailed as things can change, plus there is no clear consensus yet from the data.

Here is how I see it thus far. Christmas Eve into Christmas morning those to the West of I-95 will see freezing rain later turning to rain Christmas Day. Those East of I-95 could see snow turning into freezing rain then rain. In both locations it will be a mess.

Here are my main concerns: flooding on Christmas Day due to the rain and the subsequent snow melt. Clogged drains and gutters will not help this. The evenings of Friday and Saturday will be below freezing, thus all the rain and melted snow will freeze. Currently the "official" forecast is for Saturday it be above freezing, but I am skeptical at the moment since the remaining snow and ice pack should keep the temps down.

As much as I love snow is as much as I hate ice. I will keep you posted.

Updated: 4:12 PM GMT on December 25, 2009

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same pattern again - will it snow this time?

By: cws6196, 12:17 PM GMT on December 15, 2009

Storm Totals

Here are the snow totals from around the State. I have 22 inches on the ground now. What a record breaking storm. Now I turn my attention to the possibility of more snow for Christmas. We shall see as it is too far out for my liking to make a forecast.

=======================

NOUS41 KLWX 201104
PNSLWX
DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ049>055-501>504-202259-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
600 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2009

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN FOR THE STORM THAT
AFFECTED OUR REGION FROM DECEMBER 18TH TO DECEMBER 19TH.
APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE
OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS.

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

...DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...
THE MALL 16.0 615 PM 12/19

MARYLAND

...ALLEGANY COUNTY...
LONACONING 17.4 412 AM 12/20
NORTH BRANCH 1 N 17.0 1015 PM 12/19
CUMBERLAND 1 SSE 14.5 702 PM 12/19
FROSTBURG 14.0 700 PM 12/19

...ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY...
GLEN BURNIE 22.5 915 PM 12/19
CROFTON 21.0 1030 PM 12/19
BALT-WASH INTL ARPT 21.0 1200 AM 12/20 KBWI
ANNAPOLIS 20.8 700 PM 12/19
OWINGS 1 NNE 20.0 845 PM 12/19
GREEN HAVEN 1 NE 19.9 424 AM 12/20
GAMBRILLS 1 NW 18.0 733 PM 12/19
MILLERSVILLE 18.0 815 PM 12/19
PAROLE 1 NNW 17.0 630 PM 12/19
RIVA 2 NW 15.0 933 PM 12/19

...BALTIMORE COUNTY...
CATONSVILLE 20.5 847 PM 12/19
GUNPOWDER 1 WSW 20.5 933 PM 12/19
GARRISON 1 SE 20.4 1025 PM 12/19
ESSEX 20.0 1020 PM 12/19
PARKTON 20.0 655 PM 12/19
DUNDALK 1 SSW 19.5 700 PM 12/19
MONKTON 19.0 915 PM 12/19
REISTERSTOWN 19.0 945 PM 12/19
HAMPTON 1 W 18.0 618 PM 12/19
HUNT VALLEY 17.8 1005 PM 12/19
JACKSONVILLE 17.0 900 PM 12/19
RANDALLSTOWN 1 NW 16.5 715 PM 12/19
PARKVILLE 1 ENE 12.0 830 PM 12/19

...BALTIMORE CITY COUNTY...
CARROLL 2 W 17.0 1115 PM 12/19

...CALVERT COUNTY...
DARES BEACH 3 NW 19.0 800 PM 12/19
HUNTINGTOWN 18.8 1050 PM 12/19

...CARROLL COUNTY...
LINEBORO 3 WSW 20.0 933 PM 12/19
MILLERS 19.0 1100 PM 12/19
WESTMINSTER 1 N 18.8 729 PM 12/19
LINEBORO 2 E 18.5 800 PM 12/19

...CHARLES COUNTY...
BRYANS ROAD 2 ESE 21.2 1000 PM 12/19
DENTSVILLE 1 SW 13.5 1050 PM 12/19
WALDORF 4 SE 13.5 600 PM 12/19

...FREDERICK COUNTY...
LIBERTYTOWN 2 N 22.5 931 PM 12/19
FREDERICK 1 ESE 22.0 1100 PM 12/19
NEW MARKET 2 NW 22.0 900 PM 12/19
MIDDLETOWN 21.0 930 PM 12/19
JEFFERSON 2 NE 20.2 931 PM 12/19
POINT OF ROCKS 19.0 930 PM 12/19
WALKERSVILLE 19.0 743 PM 12/19

...HARFORD COUNTY...
EDGEWOOD 19.0 800 PM 12/19
FALLSTON 1 N 18.0 931 PM 12/19
BEL AIR 1 NE 16.5 840 PM 12/19

...HOWARD COUNTY...
COLUMBIA 23.0 945 PM 12/19
SIMPSONVILLE 1 SSE 22.9 1200 AM 12/20
COLUMBIA 2 N 22.9 950 PM 12/19
ELKRIDGE 2 W 21.0 930 PM 12/19
GLENELG 1 ENE 19.5 1050 PM 12/19
SAVAGE 1 WSW 19.0 1128 PM 12/19
HANOVER 19.0 945 PM 12/19
SAVAGE 1 N 17.0 900 PM 12/19
ELLICOTT CITY 1 ESE 16.8 900 PM 12/19

...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
BETHESDA 24.0 500 AM 12/20
OLNEY 23.3 1030 PM 12/19
DERWOOD 23.0 900 PM 12/19
GLEN ECHO 22.8 930 PM 12/19
OLNEY 1 S 22.5 800 PM 12/19
GERMANTOWN 22.0 650 PM 12/19
GAITHERSBURG 1 NW 22.0 632 PM 12/19
NORBECK 21.3 1200 AM 12/20
ROCKVILLE 2 NW 21.0 932 PM 12/19
NORBECK 1 SE 21.0 1000 PM 12/19
COLESVILLE 21.0 900 PM 12/19
GLENMONT 21.0 737 PM 12/19
POTOMAC 3 ENE 20.6 1100 PM 12/19
DAMASCUS 20.3 918 PM 12/19
BETHESDA 2 NNW 20.0 743 PM 12/19
FAIRLAND 1 ESE 20.0 815 PM 12/19
ROCKVILLE 1 SSW 20.0 800 PM 12/19
NORTH POTOMAC 1 E 19.0 1000 PM 12/19
POOLESVILLE 19.0 1230 AM 12/20
DARNESTOWN 1 SW 19.0 815 PM 12/19
SILVER SPRING 1 ESE 18.0 1000 PM 12/19
GERMANTOWN 3 E 16.5 700 PM 12/19

...PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY...
LAUREL 19.1 1000 PM 12/19
BOWIE 2 NNW 19.0 921 PM 12/19
BOWIE 18.8 802 PM 12/19
HYATTSVILLE 18.0 812 PM 12/19
GLENN DALE 3 ENE 18.0 1050 PM 12/19
FOREST HEIGHTS 1 SSE 17.0 720 PM 12/19
BELTSVILLE 1 SSW 15.0 1110 PM 12/19
ADELPHI 1 ENE 13.8 1000 PM 12/19

...ST. MARYS COUNTY...
HOLLYWOOD 1 NNE 15.8 300 AM 12/20
HOLLYWOOD 14.5 950 PM 12/19

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
SMITHSBURG 21.0 742 PM 12/19
HANCOCK 16.0 630 PM 12/19



update Dec 19 afternoon

Wow! I have cleared the driveway three times already and will be going out again soon. I have 13" and counting.

This will continue through this evening, ending in the South first as the low goes off the coast. Many of us still have the opportunity to see 20" or more.

Remember to use the weather phone (443-470-9804) for updates and feel free to leave your snow totals on the VM or post here.


update Dec 19 morning

Well, here it is. A Blizzard Warning has been issued mainly due to the winds that will be increasing as the day progresses and the low moves off shore. Currently I have around 5" and it is still snowing. A look at the data and current radar shows this will continue through today and overnight.

I am looking for this to be over by at least 9:00 am if not sooner.

It still looks good for us to see accumulations near 20" if not more in spots. Looks like this storm will "bottom out" around 1:00 pm or so, meaning the low will be the strongest (deepest) and the snow rate will increase. After that the storm is moving away, yet will continue to snow.

Tomorrow looks to be a fine day to work on cleanup. This wont be meting any time soon. Remember to use the weather phone (443-470-9804) for updates and feel free to leave your snow totals on the VM or post here.

update Dec 18 late evening

The low is intensifying and the snow has begun to accumulate (11:30pm). The NWS has issued a Blizzard Warning for Southern MD and a Winter Storm Warning for the rest of the area. The accumulation figures are adding up, and instead of 1-2 inches in the morning we are now looking at the possibility of 4 inches. The NWS is predicting 20" for the area, and from what I see, I would not disagree.

Yes, the accumulation could be quite higher then I forecast, but again, the location of the low is what makes the difference.


update Dec 18 afternoon

Not much to update as the data has been fairly consistent. The timing still seems somewhat delayed, so if you don't see snow by 6 or 7 tonight don't think it missed us, it is coming.

Accumulation has the potential to be above 10", but I am going to stick with a range of 9 - 12" to be conservative, recognizing that some areas will see more then this. By Saturday morning (wake up time) there should only be about 2 inches on the ground. The heavier snows occur Saturday.

With the advancing of the low pressure be aware of gusting winds Saturday. This will cause drifting of snow and possible white outs for those who will be driving. Also, given the temps for the weekend and early part of next week, this will not be melting away anytime soon. Whether or not it snows before Christmas, it looks like we will be enjoying a white Christmas.

Please keep me up to date as to the weather in your area so I can report the findings to the NWS. I will place another update only if conditions seem to stray from this forecast. Otherwise I will keep you updated as to any warnings/watches issued throughout the weekend. The weather phone will be kept up to date as well: 443-470-9804


update Dec 18 early morning

Well, this is looking big. The caution I have for this weekend is that we are dealing with a coastal low, and any slight change in the position of the Low will effect the snow amount. I do see this as an all snow event with it all accumulating.

In my last post I forecast 5" with the possibility of up to 10". I don't want to keep going back and forth with the amounts with each new data run of the model, but I think it is fair for me to now say the average snowfall for the area will be on the low end 7" and on the high end 15" plus. Depending on the track I have seen data which would equate to estimates of 20" or more.

A change from my previous forecast is in the timing, as the snow will begin to fall closer to 7:00 pm in Southern MD and later in the evening for Central MD.

I will keep this blog updated, but also check the weather phone (443-470-9804) for up to the minute news (I operate this daily. You can also leave a message if you wish).


update Dec 17 morning

"Yes, Virginia, it can snow in Maryland..." Well, looks like it will happen. I have been cautious given the trending of the models of late, but I have been watching this since last weekend and there is consistency not found in the previous model depicted storms.

I don't want to sound alarmist, as typically I am not, but the "potential" is here for a big one. Not saying it will happen, but the potential exists. Not to 'bore' you with technical info as to why this is happening, here is my forecast: beginning in Southern MD, the precip will start late afternoon Friday and continue through early Sunday morning. For those in the Baltimore area expect precip about dinner time or a tad sooner. Given the cold air in place and the solid ground, this will be all snow with most of it accumulating. The precip will last into Sunday morning.

Amounts: I really don't want to speculate this early, but I will. Truthfully I figure somewhere around 5 inches for most. But, depending on the actual path of the system and how far North it tracks, the potential exists for 10 or more inches. But right now I am sticking with an average of 5". I will know more come tomorrow afternoon as to exact amounts and locations.

There is some question as to Southern MD having a mixed precip; not too sure about that. I really do think it will be all snow.

I have no doubt the NWS will be issuing winter weather advisories, warnings, etc come Friday. I will keep this blog updated, but also check the weather phone (443-470-9804) for up to the minute news (I operate this daily. You can also leave a message if you wish).

Also, there is "talk" of a white Christmas ... more to come.


update Dec 16 morning

The models are still not completely consistent, but a pattern is beginning to emerge, enough for me to have a bit more confidence in a forecast. If all the dynamics pan out, a low will form off the Carolina coast and move across VA. Given the current cold air and cold ground, precip will fall as snow and accumulate. Those in Southern MD may have a mixed precip while those in Central MD will see all snow. This should happen Saturday night into Sunday. It is too far out for me to talk about amount of accumulation.

original post
Well, this morning the local media reported there will be snow this weekend. Why haven't I said anything? I have been tracking this for the past couple days but did not say anything on purpose. Given the trend thus far this year, the model data has, in the long range, shown wonderful snow storms, to only in the short range diminish them to either light snow or rain. This far out I didn't want to be changing my outlook on a daily basis. I only mention it now since the media is already promoting it. I will say that one factor we have in place this time that has been lacking from previous storms is the cold air in place and a cold ground to support accumulation.

I will continue to track this and keep you posted. I do wish to wait a day or so before giving any specifics as I watch for model and data consistency.

Updated: 1:35 PM GMT on December 20, 2009

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weekend snow?

By: cws6196, 5:20 PM GMT on December 06, 2009

update Dec 11 Friday afternoon

Ok, enough of the data is in for me to forecast Sunday: enjoy the rain! I stand by my last post update stating it will start Saturday night as a mixed precip event, very little if any accumulation, and then turning to all rain for the remainder of Sunday.

Thus far December has been exciting with many opportunities for snow. It will happen. Thus far the patterns have been close; enough moisture, coastal Lows, cold airmas. We just need for it to all click at the same time. I will keep you posted.


update Dec 10 early morning

I have been quiet about the weekend as I wait for the model data to come to some consensus instead of fluctuating all over the place. The more I see the patterns the more I am tending to believe that not much in the form of wintry precip will happen this weekend. Currently, as I see it, precip enters the area late evening Saturday from the West and the South. As the Southern portion moves in the temps rise and the precip is all rain. There do appear to be periods of snow Sunday morning, but then the afternoon could warm up enough to be all rain (the MD/PA border is the exception at the moment). Even if it were all snow, the liquid equivalent would be about 3 inches.

So for now I am downplaying the weekend weather but will continue to monitor and keep you posted. Thursday looks to be a windy day. There is some "talk" and data of a snow situation next week, but that is far off.


update Dec 8 early morning

Well, Tuesday night into Wednesday morning has been quite the challenge. The key to all this is how cold will the lower atmosphere be and how long will it stay cold? Bottom line: as I see it, those in Central and Southern MD will see primarily rain; those along the MD/PA border will see some ice accumulation.

Those in Central MD will see the precip begin sometime after 3:00 pm Tuesday (a few hours earlier in Southern MD) and it could be snow or sleet, not to last too long before changing over to rain for the remainder of the period. This storm is coming up the coast, so judge your precip start time accordingly.

The next area of interest for me is this weekend, primarily Saturday afternoon into Sunday. I hate to look so far down the road, but some data is beginning to come together to show a snow fall of around 3 or so inches, similar to what we just had. I will keep you all posted.

original post
Time for our next event - ICE! Looks like a good probability for sleet / freezing rain Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Just to our West, at the same time, could be blizzard conditions; I will be checking to see how far East that will move.

Updated: 8:25 PM GMT on December 11, 2009

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First snow this weekend??

By: cws6196, 4:19 PM GMT on December 01, 2009

Final update Dec 6 Sunday morning

I had 2.5 inches of accumulation. Looked nice but already starting to melt. On to the next snowfall. ...


update Dec 5 morning

It's snowing!! ... and accumulating ... The turn over to snow started a bit earlier then I had forecast, but no complaints from me. A look at the radar and current data it appears the snow will continue well into the afternoon if not longer. At this rate, we could be seeing 3 inches or so of accumulation in Central MD. That is on the high end of my previous forecast. Where I will modify my forecast is in Southern MD where I now can see an inch or so of accumulation, but not until this afternoon when the atmosphere cools.

An interesting fact: 6 of the last 8 years it has snowed here on December 5.


update Dec 3 midday - my "official" forecast

Ok, here goes, time to put my forecast into words and be accountable. Honestly, this is not an easy system to forecast. It is not the typical Low-off-the-coast snow producer that dumps multiple inches on us. Earlier in the week that is exactly how it looked. But it has changed over time and is now becoming more consistent.

Here is how I see it: those in Southern MD will see this as a rain event, maybe an inch of rain total. For those in Central MD and Southern PA, as the day progresses we will see snow falling from the sky. Unless there is a burst of snow, most of it will not stick, or stick on the higher grassy areas. Any accumulation will more likely be 1 inch or so for the "lucky ones".

Cautions: this is a tricky system to forecast as the temp for Saturday will hover in the mid 30's. We will only be a couple degrees from the freezing mark, and a small wobble in the position of Low could being down more cold air. Or the opposite, more warm air. But, even if we stay freezing all day, there should not be any more then 3 inches on the ground.

The precip will be coming from the South, arriving in the Baltimore area after 11:00 am. It will most likely start out as rain, changing over to a wet snow as the afternoon and evening cools. Any accumulation will melt away on Sunday.

Mid next week has me looking for another potential for us. But that is just too far away.

Feel free to send me snow reports. Enjoy!


update Dec 2 midday

My main purpose in this message is to mention the weather for today. As the Afternoon progresses expect rain to come in from the S to the N, heavy at times. There is the chance for thunderstorms later in the evening and overnight hours followed by very gusty winds (30+ mph). At this time there are no watches/warnings issued for our area, but I will keep you posted if they are later issued.

No real change in my forecast for Saturday. But, the models have been all over the place, which is to be expected. A couple things worry me about my snow amount prediction, and that is the temp for the next couple days as being high, and the water on the ground, both of which could inhibit snow accumulation. But, as I stated earlier, I am not changing my forecast on the whim of every model change. I hope to know more by tomorrow afternoon or evening to provide a more definite forecast.

For those interested, here is the forecast discussion from the local NWS (my notes in parentheses): "BROAD CYCLOGENESIS (low pressure) OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EXPECTED SAT MORNING. SOME AREAS/BANDED PRECIP EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE CWA (coverage area) EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT OVER THE BAY. INCLUDED SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...IMPACT POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY."

original post
Well, here we go! Time to talk snow. If you recall from my previous post of Nov. 23 (re-posted below) I talked about this weekend as the best chance for snow, but there was a lack of precip; but not any longer. As of last night, the model data has started showing the development of a Gulf Low moving into our area Saturday. So, what will happen.

Concerns: my first concern is we are 4 days away, and the Gulf Low that is needed for this snow has not even yet formed. If it doesn't form it will only be cold Saturday. If it does form, my other concern is "timing" and "location". With a counter-clockwise flow, the further to the coast or off the coast will bring down the cold air and cause it to snow. The further West it tracks the more we will see rain as it draws up the warmer Southern air.

Optimism: partly due to my love of snow and partly due to the data, I am fairly confident we will see snow this Saturday. As much as I typically shy away from forecasts this far out, I would say we are looking at snow Saturday afternoon into the evening, with the potential for 5 or more inches of accumulation. As long as the Low tracks as it should, and given the colder air all this week to cool the ground, I see this as happening.

Of course I will keep studying the models. I will not post here with every fluctuation of the data, but if there is significant change, or more certainty, I will update you all.

Here is a copy of my Nov. 23 post: "Regarding snow the first of December, the models are doing what I figured they would do, wobble. Now it appears the temps wont be cold enough until the weekend (Dec. 5-6) but there is no precip then. The models still do show a large amount of precip mid-week (as I previously mentioned), so watching the temps and data will eventually give me a good idea of what is happening. I will not have too much confidence in my forecast of snow until the models come to some consensus (and I can see real-to-life trends)."

Updated: 3:01 PM GMT on December 06, 2009

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About cws6196

I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.

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