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By: cws6196, 4:55 PM GMT on August 31, 2009
update Friday Morning
Well, Erika is gone and so no longer an issue (not that I thought she would be). Enjoy the weather this weekend!
Happy Labor Day to all!!
update Wednesday Afternoon
Still enjoying the week? This weather pattern will last through the holiday weekend. As I previously mentioned, the threat of heavy rain for Southern MD continues for Thursday late evening into Friday morning, but honestly, I do not see the rain tracking past the Potomac into MD, rather staying in VA and crossing to the Atlantic around Ocean City, MD.
I am watching TS Erika for any potential mid-Atlantic landfall mid next week. At this time I dont see her as an issue. It actually appears she may downgrade to a depression in a day or so. I see two scenarios: a direct hit to Northern FL or GA; or out to sea. I will continue to watch just in case.
Enjoy your holiday!
Enjoying Fall? Our current temp is the same as Bismarck, ND and only 15 degrees warmer then Anchorage, AK, just to put this into perspective ...
The rest of the week should be similar to today, but we could be impacted by a Gulf disturbance that should form later today or tomorrow. If this forms it will grow and as the week progresses it will cross FL and then ride the coast, exiting along Ocean City, MD. This is not necessarily a tropical system (not a tropical storm or hurricane), but it will have the same characteristics and could dump multiple inches of rain. This is only Monday, but the timing would be Thursday night thru Friday afternoon. For the good news: minimal winds, and after this system, no more rain for our area thru the holiday weekend!
There is a disturbance in the Atlantic that is not yet formed, but should do so in a couple days. The current model data have it aimed for the islands or FL, but once it does form I will see if this preliminary data changes. All in good time.
Updated: 1:18 PM GMT on September 04, 2009
By: cws6196, 3:53 AM GMT on August 25, 2009
update Saturday morning
Well, I woke up to sunshine and not rain as I forecast. Hate when I'm wrong (unless I misjudge snow depth). There remains a chance for scattered rain today and tomorrow, but the intensity and frequency has diminished, mainly due to a shift in the upper level winds. So, it can still rain here and there the rest of the weekend.
Danny is no more; fell apart off the coast of NC. There is another area of interest heading West, but waaaay too early to say anything. Enjoy your early Fall the beginning of this week.
update Friday morning
That was some storm that came through Central MD early in the morning. In just over an hour I recorded 2.09 inches of rainfall. For the rest of today expect pop up showers, some locally heavy, throughout the day and evening.
Danny is no longer an issue for the mid-Atlantic with the exception of the coastal areas suffering from high surf and rip currents. The latest prediction from the Hurricane Center took away any probability of our area, including the Eastern Shore, experiencing tropical force winds.
Saturday morning expect rain, not from Danny, but from the cold front moving into the area. I do not foresee thunderstorms, but mainly rain storms, some of them locally heavy. Saturday afternoon should give us all a break, although not a sunny break. Saturday night into Sunday morning are more chances for scattered rain storms.
So all in all not too bad of a weekend, but wet.
update Wednesday morning
As I have been "warning" you the past couple days, tropical storm Danny has formed. Attached is the latest 5 day track. The track has Danny near the mid-Atlantic coast, but not directly impacting the coast. As I have previously forecast, Danny will stay over water, but of course, as a hurricane near the coast, waves, wind and rip currents in the ocean are possible. Those on the Eastern Shore and Southern MD will most likely experience rain Saturday morning into the afternoon as well as elevated tides. The rest of MD should not be impacted by Danny.
The reason Danny is staying off shore is due to the cold front moving in from Canada and pushing Danny off the coast. So, when you are complaining it is cold Sunday thru mid week, keep in mind the alternative, a direct hit by Danny.
I will keep you posted and will know more once the model data catches up with the new tropical storm.
There is an area of interest in the Atlantic to which the Hurricane Center is placing a 30 - 50% chance of development in the next 48 hours. The current model data has the disturbance tracking on a similar path to Bill, not impacting the East Coast. But, one of the models (euro) has it tracking closer to the coast then the other models. As with Bill, I do not believe this will directly impact our area. But, this is early and there is no agreement yet as to any track. The variables are closeness to the coast and intensity of the system. In reference to the latter, this should not be a hurricane. My main concern will be waves and rip currents.
The rest of this week is a dry one with moderate temps. This weekend we could see rain as a result of a front moving in from Canada.
Updated: 2:11 PM GMT on August 29, 2009
By: cws6196, 1:53 PM GMT on August 21, 2009
Today looks to be a set up for a stormy one. Given the "soupy" atmosphere and the approaching cold front, expect storms to develop as the afternoon progresses. It appears most of the storms will be along the MD/PA line and along I-95. Given the upper level winds, or lack thereof, these storms will be slow movers and can dump 2 or more inches of rain. These storms have the potential for strong winds, and the Storm Prediction Center places Cecil Co North in a 5% chance for tornadoes, yet places Central MD in a 15% chance for strong wind.
As the day progresses I expect to find watches / warnings issued for the storms as well as flooding.
By: cws6196, 5:37 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
Update Thursday 20th
Well, I feel much more confident in saying that Bill will not be a factor in our weather. The models have been consistent over many periods and the trough looks to be forming just the way we need it to. As projected, the Eastern Shore has a 5% chance of experiencing tropical force winds. The Atlantic waters along the coast should be good for surfing! I do not think the Bay will be effected much, maybe a slight increase in tide levels. So we missed a monster this time. At this time there is nothing else on the horizon.
Update Monday 17th
It still looks like my forecast of Bill not effecting us still stands. The track has been shifted a bit more to the West, but not to make landfall in the US. According to the NHC the probability of feeling tropical storm force winds in the next 5 days is only a 5% chance for the Eastern Shore, Chesapeake Bay and Potomac to feel tropical force winds. A slight shift to the West will increase the percentage, but still, nothing major for us.
update Sunday 16th
Well, the tropics are heating up for sure. At this time there are 2 named storms, one depression and another area of interest. So, how will all this effect us. Let's break it down:
TS Ana: I really don't see her having any effect on us. The long-range models have the remnants either moving into the middle of the Country or off to our West. "If" anything we might see some rain.
TS Bill: this is the storm I previously spoke about that has me concerned. The models, at this time, show him curving to the North just prior to hitting the East Coast. This has been consistent with what I have forecast. But, the turn is dependent on a trough forming along the Eastern Coast. If that trough does not form, or the timing is off, I do wonder if we will experience at least a brush from Bill. "If" this happens, I don't see Bill impacting us until after August 23rd (as I previously mentioned). I will be keeping an eye on this one.
TD 4: same as I mentioned for Ana.
There is another area of interest South of TD 4 and as such my forecast is similar to that of both Ana and TD 4.
Well, the weekend and up to mid-week look to be quite calm for us. Overall we will have seasonal temps with only a chance for precip and storms each day; the usual for this time of year.
The uncertainty remains with the tropical outlook. I see the current TD2 as dying out, or staying the same, but either way it’s shift to the South should continue; no threat to us. The wave to the East of TD2 though has some concern. The long range models show the then hurricane heading towards the Eastern seaboard, yet curving to the North just before making landfall. If this is true we are fine. But with this system so far off (and not even developed yet), who knows if it curves or heads to the coast line. The time frame would be August 25th or so. But, the GFS model data develops a Gulf Low around the 23rd or so, bringing it up through GA to VA and off the coast around the VA / MD line. So … if this is true, what impact 1. will it have on us in terms of wind and rain fall, and 2. will it have on the aforementioned hurricane just off the coast at the same time this exits the coast. Hmmm … I guess there is more to be revealed.
Updated: 5:25 AM GMT on August 20, 2009
By: cws6196, 3:58 AM GMT on August 05, 2009
Today is the best shot out of the week to see storms, but I am not as yet convinced there will be widespread storms. There is a cold front moving in and that will help with the dynamics, but the model data is just not there yet. If storms do occur, I feel they will be scattered and primarily along the MD/PA border. Any storm activity will occur in the later afternoon.
Of course things can change and I will keep you posted, but at this time I really don't see it.
By: cws6196, 11:54 AM GMT on August 02, 2009
There is a slight chance for storms later today, but to be honest, I don't really see it happening for Central MD. Western MD and Eastern Shore have a better shot at severe weather. Currently the area is under a Flash Flood Watch and portions of Western MD are under a Thunderstorm Warning at this moment.
Expect today to be cloudy with some rain showers, intense at times.