Thursday afternoon update
In my last post I reported that the local NWS was mentioning the possibility of a snow storm Friday based off of the models. I was skeptical at the time, and since that posting the models seem to have backed off from that solution. But ... now we have a dilemma. Below is the latest Hazardous Weather Outlook. If you read it, you will notice if does not mention Central MD for snow, but in looking at the codes at the top, Central MD is coded.
Why am I even mentioning this? I truly don't believe we in Central MD will see snow overnight, but, what has me concerned is that over time the NWS issuance have inched more and more North, and a look at the radar and water vapor loop shows more and more moisture entering the area then first forecast.
So, in good "weather forecaster speak", I forecast no snow for Central MD overnight, BUT, I will not be surprised if we wake up to a dusting.
FLUS41 KLWX 121534
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1134 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2009
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW ACCUMULATING TO AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND...MAINLY AFTER 2 AM UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
The temps this weekend along with changing the clocks will definitely make us feel as if it were Spring, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Here is the most recent AFD from Sterling (LWX): "GFS DEPICTS COASTAL LOPRES DVLPG FRI AS SHRTWV TROF RACES ACRS SRN PLNS AND AMPLIFIES OVER SERN CONUS. ECMWF EVOLVES THE SAME SHRTWV TROF INTO CUTOFF UPR LOW OVER SWRN CONUS. IF THE FORMER VERIFIES... ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE PSBL OVER PORTIONS OF FCST AREA LATE NEXT WK."
Translation: more then one model is indicating a Low pressure system off the Southern coast next Friday into Saturday. This is the same setup that gave us our recent snowfall. So, similar setup, similar outcome; the possibility of snow next Friday.
My take: this is way too early to be predicting weather events. I am only sharing this because the NWS is talking about it, and typically they do not mention this stuff so early in the forecast cycle, hence it made me take a look. But seriously, much can happen from now until then.
Updated: 5:11 PM GMT on March 12, 2009
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