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By: cws6196, 4:36 AM GMT on January 29, 2009
Sunday evening update
Well, as I mentioned in my previous post, the next two model runs (data) have come in, and they are consistent in the Low heading out to sea. For those who are not lovers of snow this should be great news for you! As for me ... I hate when I'm right. Since I started speaking of this storm's potential I have been cautious and skeptical, well it appears that has paid off. Now mind you, Mother Nature can still do whatever she wants, but it seems unlikely that we will see a major snow event.
Here is how I see it: late afternoon into the evening rain with a possible snow mix. After Midnight the rain will turn to all snow with periodic snow showers throughout the day Tuesday, ending in the evening. For most people in Central MD this will most likely just be a dusting, but, for the sake of me being hopeful, I will still say 1 - 3 inches of accumulation (remember, just me being hopeful).
Sunday afternoon update
This really is not an easy storm to forecast. I haven't posted anything since Thursday as I didn't know what to post. The models have the data going all over the place as to the track of the Low. Friday into Saturday saw the Low going way off into the ocean, while Saturday night models had the Low back along the coast. This morning's model run now has it off the coast again. Grrr..... The track and the timing is all important to what, and how much, we receive. The 1:00 PM EST model data is now just hitting the internet so I will see what that run says. There is also another model run at 7:00 PM EST.
Here is another interesting feature; snow we receive may not be from the Low along coast, rather from the cold front moving in from the NW! If we believe the most recent model runs, it will snow here from late Monday afternoon into Tuesday evening, but not at all from the Low which will be too far off the coast. If the Low comes close to the coast we could see 20 inches or more of snow. Here is with the NWS stated based off of last night's model data: "IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS TRUE...LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WOULD BE MUCH HIGHER. WITH COLD AIR BEING PULLED SOUTH AND EAST BY THE SURFACE LOW."
In summary: I still say we will have snow Monday into Tuesday, but realistically not much more then 3 inches or so.
Thursday night update
Hmmm.....so much to say but at the same time nothing to say. What I mean; there is a strong storm that will form and travel up the coast, yet at this time there are way too many uncertainties. All the model data is showing this system and it is quite impressive. To put it into perspective, the pressure of this Low is equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane. The Low develops in the Gulf of Mexico, moves across FL and then up the coast. But this is where the uncertainty lies; will it travel up the coast East or West of the Appalachians. The former gives us snow, the latter we have all rain.
Here is how I see it thus far: as the Low moves North, the counter-clockwise spin draws warm air and moisture into the area Monday, bringing us rain. As the Low exists our area for New England, the same spin draws down cold air from Canada, giving us snow Tuesday. The track and speed of the Low would determine the amount of precip.
I read some interesting data: the most recent MD snow storms have occurred in the first couple weeks of February in the years 1993, 1996, 2000, 2003, 2006. So, with the exception of the 4 year spread prior to 2000 we have had a storm every three years. Hmmm, three years after 2006 is .....
Are we on a roll now? There is a chance for some snow late Friday night, but nothing major. The big deal is early next week. It is too early to really say, but here is what the NWS is saying about it: "A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THAT WILL MOVE UP THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE...AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED."
I will keep you posted but want to be cautious and see what the model trends look like. If the models trend as they have been this season, then we will see the Low move further inland and so bring snow to PA and points North, missing us.
Updated: 5:16 AM GMT on February 02, 2009
By: cws6196, 5:37 PM GMT on January 24, 2009
Tuesday night update
Enjoying the snow? My forecast is on track and just prior to 10:00 pm the precip at home changed to sleet (after recording 2 inches of snow). After Midnight the changeover will move to freezing rain and by Noon to all rain.
Monday night update
Not much to update from the previous post. Looks to have an onset Tuesday morning (as I mentioned) in the form of snow with accumulation. Wednesday looks to be a rain event by late morning or early afternoon. The only change from my previous prediction is in timing. It appears the changeover to sleet could now occur Tuesday evening instead of Wednesday morning. Not a major difference, although the timing of the changeover will effect the overall accumulation. I still stick with my 3 - 5 inches with 3 in the Baltimore area and closer to 5 the further North of the City you go.
Sunday night update
This is what I get for getting ahead of the data. My last post stated I wasn't excited about any snow event this week as the model data has, this Winter, trended away from storms after getting my hopes up. Well guess what; just the opposite. In my previous post I said the model data was backing away from a storm, well now it is again showing the storm, a good sized one for this area too.
Here's the scoop: the precip type is an unknown factor as the temps will be fluctuating. Of course, the more mixed precip we have the less accumulation. As I see it, the snow will begin for us early Tuesday morning (rush hour or earlier). Any change over to mixed precip would be later in the afternoon, but then again changing to snow in the evening. Wednesday will be the day for mixed precip and/or all rain. Those along and North of the MD/PA line will most likely see all snow.
Accumulation? Well, again depends on the temp and any mixed precip. The water amount with the storm will be considerable, but due to the rain Wednesday it won't be too bad. I am predicting 3 or so inches for most of us, 5 plus inches for those near and North of the border. If this were an all snow event (which it shouldn't be) we would see 10 plus inches.
So, in summary, snow Tuesday and mixed precip Wednesday with 3 or so inches of accumulation, 5 or more along the border. Enjoy!
Many of you have asked me about the snow coming this week, wondering why I haven't yet said anything about it. Well, given the track record of model data this Winter, the fact that I had seen the same data as the local weather forecasters does not mean I believed it. How often have I gotten all of our hopes up for snow only to be dashed ... Again I believe this to be true, hence my not mentioning anything. The latest model runs are squelching much of the snow possibilities for mid-week. Not to say we wont see any snow, but to say that Tuesday to Thursday expect to see periodic snow showers with only a dusting or so of accumulation, not the storm that was previously being talked about by the local media.
And yes, it is snowing here right now, and no, I hadn't previously mentioned it; well, it caught me and the NWS off guard (happens). For the rest of today and into Sunday evening expect scattered snow showers, again, not amounting to anything.
For those who like long-range planning, I am keeping my eye on next weekend ....
Updated: 4:37 AM GMT on January 28, 2009
By: cws6196, 5:27 PM GMT on January 11, 2009
Monday night update
As is typical for this Winter season, the model data is now backing off from a snow event Thursday ... BUT ... before many of you rejoice, 1. I still am hopeful for a storm; 2. the data still shows light snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday with little to no accumulation. So if nothing else everyone wins: if you don't like snow it wont stick; and if you like snow you will get to see it fall.
It appears that this week Winter will finally arrive. After Tuesday expect temps in the twenties and teens through the weekend. With this arctic air could also be snow for us. The models are not yet in total agreement, but as I see it, most of us could see some light snow Tuesday afternoon (no real accumulation). Thursday could be another shot of snow for us, maybe a couple inches, but again, the models are not as yet in agreement so don't get too excited here. I will keep you posted.
Updated: 4:31 AM GMT on January 13, 2009
By: cws6196, 8:56 PM GMT on January 08, 2009
There really isn't too much to update from my last forecast. It appears the precip may be a bit slower in arriving, starting around Noon or so Saturday instead of Midnight. What that means is less of a chance for sleet, more of a chance for freezing rain, snow and all rain. I still don't see much accumulation beyond a dusting or so.
Tuesday is another shot for snow, but not much accumulation, and the end of the week continues to look promising.
Here we go again ..... Looks like a mixed bag of precip coming our way this Saturday. Again, it is all in the timing (are these posts sounding familiar?). Those near the MD/PA line will see more snow for a longer period of time then the rest of us. If the precip begins after Midnight Friday then most of us will see snow, sleet, freezing rain before changing to all rain. Again, those near the border will see snow. If the precip waits until Saturday afternoon then it will be all rain (except for the border people). How's that for committing to a forecast ....
Next week will be quite cold around here with a slight chance for flurries Tuesday (minimal stickage). I am watching next Friday though as there is a good chance it may be our first real snow producer of the season.
Updated: 8:00 PM GMT on January 09, 2009
By: cws6196, 4:47 PM GMT on January 04, 2009
Happy New Year to all of you! Unfortunately it doesn't appear that the New Year will produce any white stuff for us in the near-term. Tuesday late morning into Wednesday afternoon most of us will see a mixed wintry precip from freezing rain to snow to rain and back again. The temps are just not cold enough to support an all snow event. The changes of course will occur depending on the time of the precip. No real accumulation of ice or snow is expected.
This coming weekend could see some snow, I don't really see anything major then either.
AKDOT Parks Highway @ Talkeetna Road MP 98.3
|Dew Point:||16.0 °F|
|Wind:||2.0 mph from the NNW|
|Wind Gust:||9.0 mph|
Updated: 6:51 PM AKDT on March 28, 2015