I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.
By: cws6196, 3:47 PM GMT on November 27, 2008
Happy Thanksgiving to all!! Well, as I mentioned earlier there was the possibility of a coastal storm forming by Dec 1st. Well, the good news is that the model data appears to be in better agreement that that will happen. These are the type of storms that produce blizzards for us. But ... the bad news ... this will be a rain even for us.
As the coastal Low forms off the Carolina coast, the rain will move in from the South. Southern MD could see rain Saturday night into Sunday morning. The rest of us will see rain late Sunday morning thru Monday. Two exceptions: the precip Sunday night could be slight freezing rain, and those along the MD/PA line will most likely see some snow Sunday.
I will keep you posted if the Low changes positions and so brings in more colder air, but as of now I see us merely getting wet.
By: cws6196, 3:49 PM GMT on November 24, 2008
Are we all enjoying the cold air? There will be a slight warming this week, but nothing major as most temps in most areas will remain below normal for this time of the year. Tonight we could see rain. The only mention of snow (and the only snow I see on the models) is for Western MD and not us.
But, the models have been hinting at the possibility of a, let's call it, "Winter event", after Thanksgiving, specifically Sunday into Monday. I wasn't going to say anything about this at this time, but after reading the latest AFD from the local NWS I figured I would say something. The local NWS tends to be cautious in the long-range snow forecast (rightly so), but as they make mention of what I had been seeing I felt it was time to share. Here is what the NWS is saying: "NXT WX OF NOTE WL COME AFTR THE HOLIDAY...IN THE FORM OF SRN STREAM ENERGY HEADED TWD CWFA. ITS THE TIME OF YR WHERE TRACK/TIMING WL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN TERMS OF PTYPE." In other words, a coastal storm is brewing, but the timing of the onset and the location of the Low will make all the difference.
By: cws6196, 8:00 PM GMT on November 20, 2008
I have heard a lot of talk from the local guys as to snow tomorrow. Here is my scoop: around Midnight tonight (depending on your location) light precip will begin to fall and will continue to do so for about 24 hours. This will not be heavy nor steady precip. Air temp will be slightly above freezing and the atmosphere will be below freezing. Therefore, most, not all, of the precip would be in the form of snow. But, given the small amount of moisture, no accumulation is expected. So, will it snow, yeah, a good chance. Will it stick and accumulate, doubt it.
The next system to watch comes in Monday from the Great Lakes with a good amount of moisture. But, given the position of the Low, warm air from the South will be brought into our area as the precip arrives. Monday will be a rain event for us. Sorry for those who love snow.
By: cws6196, 4:39 AM GMT on November 19, 2008
Well, as much as I hate to say it, I don't think there will be snow here this weekend. The GFS model data for two days now does not have the storm anymore. Friday night Western MD, PA and Southern MD could see some flakes, but that is about all. There is another system "brewing" the end of the weekend, but I wont mention that until it is closer.
I guess this is what I get for predicting too far ahead. And as I mentioned in my first post about this; I know better. But, had I not said anything and there was a storm, I would have been kicking myself. Enjoy the snow-free, yet cold weekend.
Until the next storm .....
By: cws6196, 4:57 AM GMT on November 18, 2008
Enjoying the cold? This is not an easy forecast concerning the weekend. The cold air is in place on the ground and aloft, hence any precip would be in the form of snow. But thus far all the model runs on Monday have the Low forming off the coast too far out to effect us. it does seem there would be a chance for light snow in Harford County and PA Friday night, but nothing for the rest of us and nothing on Saturday.
But, before you all rejoice, the week is young. The dynamics are in place at this time and the models still show them. The issue remains the position of the Low. I will have more confidence on a forecast by Wed or so. Right now just know there is potential for snow, but it may miss us. One more thing: there is at least one national forecaster predicting a snow storm for Thanksgiving weekend. Way too far for me to entertain that storm, but just wanted to mention it.
By: cws6196, 5:56 AM GMT on November 17, 2008
Well, the GFS model again is showing the snow storm aimed for the 22nd for the mid-Atlantic. I am still not overly confident, but I will say there are other dynamics happening that make me wonder. So far it appears the bulk of the snow would be along the Appalachian mountains and New England, but a slight shift could bring us snow. I am not as yet talking amounts as I am still uncertain (local NWS is not yet talking about it). I want to see a couple days of model data to be more sure.
By: cws6196, 4:57 PM GMT on November 15, 2008
It looks like this afternoon could get quite interesting. With a cold front moving in and temps in the low 70s we are set up for some good thunderstorms. Current radar shows a line of storms forming just West of Hagerstown and another line to the West of that. Temps to the West of that line drop 20 degrees.
Strong winds will be the issue with these storms. The storms won't last long as the current cells on the radar are moving at least 60 mph. Here is a quote from the forecasters in Sterling (our local NWS): "DAMAGING WINDS IS THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT WOULDN'T RULED OUT TORNADOES AS THEY OCCURRED EARLY THIS MORNING IN NORTH CAROLINA."
Concerning the snow I mentioned in an earlier post: the model data show the Low forming off the coast, but at this time too far off the coast to effect us. But, this week we will see below normal temps and snow in the Western mountains. This still bears watching.
By: cws6196, 6:53 PM GMT on November 12, 2008
I really hate to do this, and typically I wouldn't, but this is not the first mention I have seen of this, namely, the possibility of a snow storm next weekend for Central Maryland. I never hold much confidence in model data more then a couple days out, and this is over a week away, but as I said, I have seen this from different sources and the model data has been consistent so far.
The end of next week is predicted to have a wave of cold air enter our area at about the same time a strong Low forms off the coast. It is this very dynamic that historically brings us blizzards. The counter-clockwise flow of the Low brings the moisture off of the ocean over land and right into the freezing air mass from the West. Hence snow.
Before you get scared or excited ... I do not have confidence in data so far out. But, just in case, I am mentioning it now. Next week I will either have to say "I knew not to trust data so far out" or people will be saying "how did he know?" hehe