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By: cws6196, 3:42 AM GMT on August 31, 2008
Friday afternoon update
Please see the details below. Of special note is the emphasis that tropical storm force winds will be felt 315 miles away from the center. The center of Hanna is forecast to pass 60 miles East of DC by late Saturday afternoon. Given the 315 mile range, we will feel the effects of Hanna well before she is in the area.
Currently the clouds are thickening in Southern MD and rain is now into VA and the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay.
Here is the NWS statement:
HANNA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH & MOVING TOWARD THE MID
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HANNA IS FARTHER EAST THAT EARLIER REPORTED. AT 200 PM EDT.1800Z.THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH.LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST.OR ABOUT 645 MILES SO. OF WA DC.
HANNA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NO. NEAR 20 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK.THE CENTER OF HANNA WILL PASS ABOUT 60 MILES TO THE EAST OF WA DC SAT EVENING.
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH.WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL.IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A SMALL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED FOR HANNA TO BECOME A HURRICANE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 315 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MIN CNTL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTER IS 981 MB.28.97 INCHES.
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN.
CNTL MD.NORTHERN MD.SOUTHERN MD.THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA.CNTL VA & N. VA.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE & PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO. BRING INSIDE ANY OUTDOOR OBJECTS THAT CAN BE PICKED UP BY THE WIND.
STORM SURGE & STORM TIDE.
COASTAL STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY & THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE HIGH TIDAL CYCLE OCCURRING LATE SAT MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
AREAS THAT WILL BE PRONE TO COASTAL FLOODING ON SAT WILL BE
EDGEWATER IN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY.BROOMES ISLAND & BENEDICT IN CALVERT COUNTY.AREAS ALONG THE PORT TOBACCO RIVER IN CHARLES COUNTY.& AREAS ALONG THE WICOMICO RIVER.CHAPTICO.COLTONS POINT.BRETON BAY.ST. CLEMENTS BAY.ST. GEORGE ISLAND.AND AREAS ALONG THE ST. MARYS RIVER IN ST. MARYS COUNTY.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING EARLY SAT MORNING & LASTING INTO THE
EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.WITH S. MD HAVING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY CAUSE TREES & POWER LINES TO FALL & CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS.
FOR BALTIMORE MD.
THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER.
RAIN WILL BEGIN ACROSS S. MD THIS EVENING. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SAT MORNING & AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN BANDS UP TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR.
TROPICAL STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. WHILE IT HAS BEEN DRY DURING THE PAST MONTH IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SMALLER CREEKS & STREAMS IN THE REGION TO RISE ABOVE BANKFULL VERY QUICKLY.CREATING A FLASH FLOOD & A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. IF YOU SEE FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING.REPORT THIS TO LAW ENFORCEMENT IMMEDIATELY. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR FLOODING ON ROADWAYS ON SATURDAY.
THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG & EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR SATURDAY. TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL SYSTEMS MOST OFTEN OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN RAIN BANDS WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER & ARE NOT ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL OR A LOT OF LIGHTNING.
Thursday Morning update
Well, Hanna is on the move and the track continues to move to the East. As I have been saying, this is not an easy storm to forecast. As I mentioned yesterday, don't pay too close attention to the actual track as we all will see effects from this tropical storm, unless Hanna goes completely off of the coast.
The way I see it, Central MD will start to feel the effects late Friday or early Saturday morning. The bulk of the storm will be here Saturday afternoon into the evening. We will see bands of heavy rainfall and winds in the 30s or greater MPH. The winds will be from the North and NNW moving to the W as the storm moves off to the NE (it circulates counter-clockwise is the reason for the wind direction).
Another storm for us to watch for next week is hurricane Ike. The latest NHC map shows a curve to either FL or the East Coast.
The latest track of Hanna is different in location and timing from previous forecasts. As I previously mentioned, it is very difficult to forecast this storm when it is not even as yet moving. The forecasts are based on dynamics in this area when it is assumed Hanna will be here. A slowing or speeding up of the storm will change the path as the weather dynamics will then be different. I say this because I do feel the path and timing will continue to change until we see movement.
But, the current forecast is more to the East and later. This is good for Central MD as that places us on the back flow of the circulation meaning a decrease in storm surge, less chance for strong thunderstorms. There still is the potential for wind, circulating winds and a good amount of rain. The forecast still calls for us to feel the effects of a tropical storm, so it wont be just a rain shower, but less of an impact to us on this current path.
The local NWS is not saying much about this weekend but to state we could get rain on Saturday. I will keep you posted. The reality is, this weekend we will be feeling the effects of the tropical storm, how severe is yet to be seen.
The latest model data from the NHC shows the center of Hanna coming right through Central MD, a bit more East then I forecaste yesterday. They also show it as a tropical storm as it comes through. If this is true, we would not only see large amounts of rainfall, but strong winds as well (in the 30s mph). Since yesterday the NHC has moved Hanna to the East with each new map. As Hanna moves closer to the coast we will know better the timing, path and intensity.
Many factors can change the path and timing. At this time I continue to stick to what I stated yesterday, but to say the timing is now this weekend, not after the weekend as I previously stated.
Monday Morning update
Hanna is not an easy storm to track until Gustav gets more out if it's way so it can develop into it's own entity. The projections are for Hanna to become a hurricane before making landfall.
The current projection from the NHC is for Hanna to enter land on the border of GA/SC. Will it effect us in Central MD? The map drawn by Accuweather shows Hanna passing to the West of Central MD this weekend. This is in contrast to the NHC map. At this time I believe a middle scenario is likely, wherein Hanna enters as forecast and moves up the Appalachians near us after the weekend.
The 11:00pm update from the NHC is out and shows a new path for Hanna, one that potentially brings it up the East Coast. The latest model data map indicates the same. So as of this moment I am watching both Hanna and the yet un-named possible hurricane as they both have the potential to impact Central MD (directly or indirectly with rain).
Updated: 6:58 PM GMT on September 05, 2008
By: cws6196, 1:02 PM GMT on August 30, 2008
I have two attachments of interest this morning. Even though we saw rains from the remnants of Fay, as seen in the drought map for MD we are still in drought conditions.
But could that be changed? The other graphic are the computer models of what looks to be our next tropical depression. As you can see it appears (at this time) to be heading toward the East Coast. Of course this is way too early, but something we should keep an eye on as the week progresses.
By: cws6196, 3:32 PM GMT on August 19, 2008
Well, it looks like I have to admit that we will not be seeing the remnants of Fay in Central MD. She will be moving into the Atlantic (as I previously mentioned) and will most likely come ashore around Savannah (not too far from where I predicted in Charleston), but then the High pressure over us, which I mentioned earlier as a 'threat', will force Fay into GA. The reason is due to the clockwise motion of a High pressure system. Given it's location relative to Fay, and Fay gets caught up in the bottom flow which is moving toward the West.
By: cws6196, 5:14 PM GMT on August 18, 2008
The latest graphic of the model data for Fay. The NHC website must be overloaded as I cant access it for the latest in tracking data. But the model data continues to demonstrate what I have been saying as to the path. I still forecast Fay to leave FL from the East and ride up the Coast, possibly re-entering in Charleston SC (as mentioned in a previous post). This would mean a rain impact on us in Central MD. The only issue right now which concerns me is a forecasted area of High pressure over us. If the timing is right, the High could keep the remnants of Fay away from the area. I will speak more on that as the timing becomes better defined. Again, I look to this weekend as the rain event.
By: cws6196, 7:34 PM GMT on August 17, 2008
It appears that with a minor adjustment, my previous forecast is still on track. The computer models (attached) are not as yet in sync with where she will go, but I still say the TS will cross FL and go up the East Coast. The new landing site on the East Coast looks to be Charleston, SC.
For us, this really could be a rainmaker in the area. Even if it tracks along the Gulf coast of FL it will still move North over land, brushing to the West of Central MD. So either way, we will be getting some good rain from this system come the end of the week.
By: cws6196, 1:27 PM GMT on August 15, 2008
The system currently over Puerto Rico is not yet even a tropical depression let alone a hurricane, but the NHC is noting the possibility of intensification, although the more it stays over land (Dominican Republic is next) it may not intensify. But, I mention this as a look at the model data is interesting. Models data, if this becomes tropical, shows it could make either FL or SC as possible "targets", yet a look at the extended European model data shows this hitting NYC or New England. Given water temps and all, if this continues up the coast it could intensify into a major hurricane.
Given what I have stated above I do not see this necessarily as a threat to Central MD, but depending on how close to the coast it travels and how wide it becomes, we could see rain from it the end of next week. I don't like to project like this, but I would rather say something now and be wrong, then say nothing at all and all of a sudden it is here.
By: cws6196, 4:24 AM GMT on August 14, 2008
Yesterday afternoon there was one rain cell on the radar situated over my house. This was a slow moving cell which dumped rain for two hours. My rain gauge recorded 3.6 inches of rain in that time frame; dime size hail; recorded wind gust of 28 mph (at 20 feet above ground level).
By: cws6196, 1:54 PM GMT on August 10, 2008
There is a good chance for afternoon storms today. A cold front moving down from NY and a upper level Low over the Great Lakes will create the dynamics necessary for these storms. The storms look to start in Central MD after Noon and last into the early Evening. These storms have the potential for damaging wind and hail. I will not be surprised to later today see a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued.
By: cws6196, 5:08 PM GMT on August 05, 2008
With a cold front approaching and a couple upper level lows, there is a good chance for thunderstorms later this afternoon into the evening. The storms should be over by Midnight. At this time I do not see this as a widespread event, rather scattered storms, mainly in Central MD and the PA line. For those who experience storms, wind and hail will be the major danger. I would not be surprised if there weren't issued a thunderstorm watch later in the day.