I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.
By: cws6196, 3:11 PM GMT on January 30, 2008
A quick look at wind reports in Central MD show winds gusting into the 40's mph as a cold front enters the area. These winds will be with us most of the day. The next weather maker will be a Low from the South Thursday night into Friday. There is alot of moisture with this, but, as has been the trend, not enough cold air to give us a strong winter storm. Given the current positioning of the Low, most of us will see only rain Thursday night into Friday. But, those closer to the MD/PA border could see freezing rain, as could isolated locales. And if the Low moves further North, more of us will see freezing rain in the overnight hours. But no snow. As with today, Friday afternoon into Saturday morning will be quite windy as another cold front moves through.
By: cws6196, 3:16 PM GMT on January 25, 2008
Where has our snow been in Central MD? That is a good question. Had this Winter been "normal", we would have had at least 3 major storms or blizzards already. I say this as we have had at least that many Low pressure systems move in from the South, these systems being those which give us the severe winter weather. So why not this year? The simple answer: the temps are too high and the atmosphere too dry. Earlier this week we didn't get the snow as I forecast due to the lack of moisture in the atmosphere. I had assumed the front would have moistened the air enough to allow the snow to fall, but alas, all the snow that fell evaporated before we could see it.
Yesterday I mentioned some of us would see snow, and those who did would see squalls of an inch or more. Well, no one in Central MD saw that, but ... the Eastern Shore of MD got it (see the stats below). That Low traveled much further South and more out to sea then any of the model data predicted.
I still hope for snow ... we shall see what happens.
Public Information Statement
1000 am EST Fri Jan 25 2008
The following are unofficial observations taken during the past
24 hours for the storm that affected our region. Appreciation is
extended to Highway departments, cooperative observers, Skywarn
spotters and media for these reports.
********************Storm total snowfall********************
Location storm total time/date comments
Henderson 2.5 230 PM 1/24
Marydel 1.5 500 PM 1/24
Ridgely 1.3 315 PM 1/24
Denton 1.3 700 am 1/25
...Queen Anne's County...
Stevensville area 1.0 700 am 1/25 6 miles south of rt. 50
Stevensville T 700 am 1/25 1 mile north of rt. 50
Trappe 1.4 700 am 1/25
Cordova 1.1 700 am 1/25
Easton 1.0 700 am 1/25
Saint Michaels 0.8 530 PM 1/24
San Domingo Creek 0.5 420 PM 1/24
By: cws6196, 1:44 PM GMT on January 23, 2008
There are a couple weather factors which will be influencing our area Thursday. Without getting into all the gory detail, there is a chance for scattered snow tomorrow. This doesn't look to be a major event, and only scattered areas will likely see snow. But, those that do see snow will more then likely see it as a squall; a lot of snow in a short time period (inch or so). But this is not widespread. The other issue for tomorrow late afternoon and evening will be strong winds as the arctic front moves through the area.
By: cws6196, 6:03 PM GMT on January 21, 2008
Here we go again. Tomorrow's forecast is not an easy one given the timing of it all. What I can say is the arctic air will be moving off the coast tomorrow and warmer air moves in from the South. There will be precip tomorrow, so when the precip starts as to where the arctic air is will determine the precip type. At this time I am going with the "political" answer: we will see all types of precip.: snow, to mixed, to rain. The good news is the lack of moisture in this system, so whatever falls wont add up to much.
Thursday is another chance for snow. Again there is not alot of moisture, but, given the return of cold air, the ratio of how much moisture is needed for how much snow will be greater. So this will need some watching, as there wont be alot of moisture, it still could equal some accumulation.
By: cws6196, 4:39 AM GMT on January 18, 2008
UPDATE Saturday afternoon
It appears the Low has pushed too far out to sea for us in Central MD to have any precip. Current radar shows the Eastern Shore with rain and mixed precip.
UPDATE Friday morning
The new model data concerning snow tomorrow has changed some, bringing good news and bad news.
The good news: the Low is further off the coast and as such the accumulation will be less then first thought. Looks to be an inch or so for most of Central MD, although the further East of I-95 you go the more snow you will likely see.
The bad news: strong arctic air moves in this weekend and looks to stay around, so no change over to rain expected Saturday.
Finished one snow event and now onto the next. This Saturday resembles Thursday's storm, yet the accumulation should be a bit less as the Low is tracking further East off the coast then did Thursday's. In most locales, take an inch or so off of your current snowfall and that is what you should see Saturday. The precip will begin in the afternoon for Central MD, beginning as snow, ending later in the evening as rain.
Updated: 9:28 PM GMT on January 19, 2008
By: cws6196, 2:41 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
UPDATE Thursday night
The snow ended about 5:00pm with me measuring about 3". It has been raining since 5:00pm.
UPDATE Thurs mid-morning
The snow has been falling in and around Baltimore, and according to the radar, should be impacting Harford Co soon. The snow right now is light, yet there are some heavier bands on the way. Please be aware of reduced visibility in the heavier bands. The temps around the region right now range from 31 - 33F and are fairly steady.
Not to get ahead of ourselves, but Saturday's weather is shaping up to resemble today's weather. More to come on that as we get through today.
UPDATE Wed Evening
A look at the recent data shows the system on track as to the prediction of the earlier model runs. But ... it does seem the air is now looking to be colder and for a longer duration Thursday then previously thought.
What does this mean? I am upping my accumulation rates from an inch or so, to now predicting 2" or so along and East of I-95 and 2 - 4" North of Baltimore toward PA and West of I-95. As Thursday evening progresses there will still be a change over to sleet then rain. I will keep you posted.
Thursday looks to be an interesting weather day. The storms and Low in the Gulf right now will be moving of the SC coast tomorrow, effecting Central MD. High cloud cover later this afternoon will be the pre-curser to the Low's approach.
The cold air we have will stay tomorrow into the late afternoon. So, any precip will more then likely be snow and sleet. Those along and East of I-95 will see more rain then frozen precip. Given the precip and the cloud cover, I do not see the temps rising too quickly. Thursday evening into the overnight the temps will rise with the Southern air moving in, changing everything to rain.
Accumulation I do not see as an issue. Grassy areas could see some build up. My main concern for most of tomorrow will be the hazards of frozen precip.
Updated: 4:28 AM GMT on January 18, 2008
By: cws6196, 5:43 PM GMT on January 11, 2008
The models still aren't helping too much, although I guess their inconsistency is their consistency. It all depends on the track of the Low from the South and the temps. At this time I am sticking to what I have been saying, yet with this modification: due to what I would see as a dip in the temps as Sunday progresses into night, I see the precip beginning Sunday as rain, changing to mixed precip into Monday. Given the moist ground and ground temps, I really don't see this as sticking, especially not on paved surfaces. Those in Western MD have a different story, and quite possibly those closer to the MD/PA border may see more frozen precip, but I don't see this as a major storm.
But as always, if there is a change in the track of the Low and a drop in the temps ... well, then I will be sending a very different message.
As an interesting note, below is a copy of the recent meteorologist discussion from the NWS (Sterling, VA). I share it with you as the forecaster talks about the weather at the end of next week! I have never seen this local office of the NWS do this.
fxus61 klwx 111554
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
1054 am EST Friday Jan 11 2008
While I do not usually get too concerned about day 7...a few things struck ME overnight. Both the 12z European and 00z GFS indicate a system develops in the western Gulf of Mexico...and tracks up the East Coast Thursday. North Pole hasn't been tapped for a while...with surface temperatures across northern Canada near -40f which could potentially increase baroclinicity if the cold air moves into the Midwest middle week. For now have introduced 40 probability of precipitation and painted weather grids typical of coastal systems (rain lower southern Maryland...mix near I-95...snow to the west). If this scenario plays out...would not be surprised if cold outbreak occurs beyond day 7. Interestingly...CPC/cdc guidance has high probability
of colder than normal temperatures days 8-14 across Gulf Coast. Something Worth watching...
Update Sat. Evening
I don't see any change in what I have previously forecast.
Updated: 10:54 PM GMT on January 12, 2008
By: cws6196, 7:51 PM GMT on January 10, 2008
The models are still inconsistent when it comes to the "snow" for Sunday into Monday. I have looked around at what other forecasters are writing, and it seems consistent, so far, with what I have been saying. If the system does form, as one of the models shows, more then likely all we will see is rain (maybe lots of it). But I haven't yet seen any data to support a temp drop needed for sustained snow.
By: cws6196, 8:49 PM GMT on January 09, 2008
With these recent temps who wants to talk snow? I know some local and national weather outlets have been talking snow for the end of the weekend into Monday. It is too early to really say, but here is the recent AFD from NWS in Sterling:
fxus61 klwx 092000
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
259 PM EST Wednesday Jan 9 2008
Long term /Thursday night through Wednesday/...
Uncertainty is somewhat higher for sun-Monday due to inconsistencies in GFS model. Preference is toward 00z European model (ecmwf)/HPC which has shown Superior performance during the past few months and good consistency
with potential storm late sun into Monday. New 12z European model (ecmwf) still shows a coastal storm but a track a bit further inland. New 12z European model (ecmwf)solution if correct would give a decent snow event for the Appalachians mountains with rain more likely over the major metropolitan
cities. Exact details still to be resolved over the next couple of days.