The models still aren't helping too much, although I guess their inconsistency is their consistency. It all depends on the track of the Low from the South and the temps. At this time I am sticking to what I have been saying, yet with this modification: due to what I would see as a dip in the temps as Sunday progresses into night, I see the precip beginning Sunday as rain, changing to mixed precip into Monday. Given the moist ground and ground temps, I really don't see this as sticking, especially not on paved surfaces. Those in Western MD have a different story, and quite possibly those closer to the MD/PA border may see more frozen precip, but I don't see this as a major storm.
But as always, if there is a change in the track of the Low and a drop in the temps ... well, then I will be sending a very different message.
As an interesting note, below is a copy of the recent meteorologist discussion from the NWS (Sterling, VA). I share it with you as the forecaster talks about the weather at the end of next week! I have never seen this local office of the NWS do this.
fxus61 klwx 111554
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
1054 am EST Friday Jan 11 2008
While I do not usually get too concerned about day 7...a few things struck ME overnight. Both the 12z European and 00z GFS indicate a system develops in the western Gulf of Mexico...and tracks up the East Coast Thursday. North Pole hasn't been tapped for a while...with surface temperatures across northern Canada near -40f which could potentially increase baroclinicity if the cold air moves into the Midwest middle week. For now have introduced 40 probability of precipitation and painted weather grids typical of coastal systems (rain lower southern Maryland...mix near I-95...snow to the west). If this scenario plays out...would not be surprised if cold outbreak occurs beyond day 7. Interestingly...CPC/cdc guidance has high probability
of colder than normal temperatures days 8-14 across Gulf Coast. Something Worth watching...
Update Sat. Evening
I don't see any change in what I have previously forecast.
Updated: 10:54 PM GMT on January 12, 2008
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