I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.
By: cws6196, 1:20 AM GMT on January 01, 2008
Happy New Year to all! I am hoping for snow soon but don't see it. New possibilities in a New Year though.
By: cws6196, 4:08 PM GMT on December 25, 2007
Merry Christmas to all!!
By: cws6196, 12:33 PM GMT on December 21, 2007
Will we have a white Christmas? Not looking like it. The temps are too warm this weekend through mid next week. There are weather systems coming through the area, and moisture associated with these storms, but the temps just aren't cold enough.
May you and your loved ones have a Blessed and Peace-filled Christmas and a Happy New Year!
By: cws6196, 5:46 AM GMT on December 17, 2007
Well, here we are again, looking ahead to the week. But I must ... note, that this time even the local NWS in VA is already talking about it. I'm not the first out of the gate on these 2 as I was on this past one. Ok, here goes ...
The models show a system coming from the South entering Central MD area Thursday night into Friday. It is looking very similar to the storm system we just had. So at this time I am forecasting a rain event for Friday from this storm. Areas that received snow over the weekend will likely see the same this Friday. But not us in MD. It seems the effects of La Nina is keeping us in a Southeast ridge effect which is keeping the warmer air along the coast and the Mid-Atlantic.
The next storm, right now, would effect our area Sunday afternoon, again with a similar pattern, yet the models do hint at snow this time. But, let me say two things: it is too far out to say, and, given what I just said about La Nina, I am skeptical of a snow event.
I will keep watching these and let you know. But for now, looks like we will be getting our much needed rain this week.
By: cws6196, 3:46 PM GMT on December 16, 2007
Well, it has been a rain event here in Central MD as I had been saying in this blog. Where I appear to have been wrong is in the sleet forecast, although some areas of Western MD have reported sleet. As much as I love snow I dislike ice, so I am not upset we missed the sleet. I did not have any sleet, only rain. So far I have recorded 1.06" of rain.
This is a strong storm, just not here. A look at reports around PA, Central NY and into New England show snow reports of over 7 inches to a foot or more in some locales.
We have a good chance for strong winds as the day progresses and as the Low moves into New England and past us to the West as it moves through OH. Right now, there are strong wind reports coming from Western and Southern OH, where the Low is currently located.
By: cws6196, 5:52 PM GMT on December 14, 2007
No major changes or differences from my previous message. Basically we will see liquid from Saturday afternoon until Sunday late morning. Possibly see some more Sunday evening. Will start with sleet, some snow and rain, back to sleet and maybe some snow. I am looking at accumulation about 2 inches or less, depending on your location. Those near the PA border and to the West of Baltimore will see more snow.
But, here are 2 interesting additions: if you recall tropical storm Olga from a couple days ago; the moisture and remnants are now near the Gulf. The models show the Low picking up the moisture and bringing it our way. So this storm will have much moisture in it. If this were an all snow event - wow! Plus, how often have we experienced tropical rains in this area in December ...
The other addition is that of wind. The Low will be quite deep, and so expect strong winds Sunday, possibly into the 40 mph. The complication will be that any snow on the ground will be blowing all over, and any limbs and wires coated in ice will be vulnerable to breakage in winds that strong.
Even though we aren't experiencing a great amount of snow, it will still be messy.
By: cws6196, 5:32 AM GMT on December 14, 2007
Well, for those who really like snow, my suggestion would be to take a trip this weekend to NY state and interior New England ... The models continue to show the warm air staying in place for this weekend for our area. The storm does develop and has alot of moisture, potentially enough moisture to give us much snow; if it weren't for the warm air aloft.
I am forecasting the weekend to be similar to what I previously stated here: we will see mainly rain, but starting as sleet and some mixing of snow overnight Saturday and then again Sunday night. As long as this remains a mixed precip event, I am now looking at about 2 inches of snow accumulation, and that mainly West of I-95 and along the PA border.
As the model data becomes available Friday I will know better, but unfortunately this is probably the way it will happen for our area.
By: cws6196, 8:27 PM GMT on December 13, 2007
A quick look at the latest model run data shows some inconsistency in the positioning of the Low. The latest GFS model is now showing the Low further off the coast. Typically that means more snow for us ... but, of course, not this time (I love snow). It appears a warm layer of air will be over the MD area Saturday and the models don't show it being pushed out. Therefore, the precip we see will tend to be mixed.
At this time, I will reluctantly back off from the 7 inches (but reserve the right to bring it back). The models show the storm starting Saturday afternoon as sleet, and as Saturday evening appears the sleet changes to freezing rain and then snow. Sunday the freezing rain returns and later changes to rain. In the later afternoon Sunday, for those near the PA line, a change over to snow into Monday. For those East of I-95 it looks to be a mix of sleet and rain for most of the weekend.
But, I will not give this as definitive until I see the last Friday model run.
By: cws6196, 4:54 AM GMT on December 13, 2007
Not much to report. The latest data is consistent with what I have been saying in my previous blogs.
Once we know for sure the track of the storm I will know better the precip. But it does appear there will be enough warm air East of I-95 to be predominantly a rain event. If this be true, my 7 inches may need to come down by a couple for those West of I-95. But for the moment I will stick with what I have been saying. By the way, in the latest model data run, one model shows the Low moving out to sea to the South of us, bringing us and New England nothing ... but this is the outlier and I don't put any stock in it.
By: cws6196, 5:57 AM GMT on December 12, 2007
I have looked at the latest model runs (GFS 12/00Z) and the upper air models (Skew-T) and there is still a storm coming. I have been watching this since the 9th and what I have noticed is the consistency in maintaining this storm, but also how the storm picks up speed. Originally this was a Monday event, then moved to Sunday, and now it seems that after Midnight Sunday this will start for our area and could be done by late afternoon Sunday.
The temps should be in the 20s overnight and moving into the low 30s Sunday during the day. Depending on the path of the Low will determine the amount and type of precip. Right now I am forecasting for those West of I-95 will see a predominant snow event, while those East of I-95 will see a mixture to almost all rain. For those with an all snow event, for now I am sticking with what I previously stated of 7 inches. Those with a mixture I cant really say now.
I hate to put this off, but honestly, I wont have a good handle on this until the model runs of Friday.
By: cws6196, 12:44 PM GMT on December 11, 2007
As I have been saying about the weekend, the local NWS is now mentioning the storm. Below is the most recent Area Forecast Discussion:
fxus61 klwx 110848
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
348 am EST Tuesday Dec 11 2007
Guidance now in very good agreement in developing a potentially sig winter storm during the second half of the weekend in response to deepening trough over the middle of the country Friday. However...guidance remains somewhat split with gefs/NCEP means indicating a more of a southern track (snow)from the southeast coast to cape hatteas and out to sea while European model (ecmwf) is more robust and much slower indicating a 500 mb closed low and a track further inland suggesting the possibility of more of a mixed precipitation/rain event.
By: cws6196, 5:20 AM GMT on December 11, 2007
The latest model runs (GFS 11/00Z) continue to show the low forming and moving up the East coast. By Sunday morning the low looks to be just off the coast of MD with temps to be in the 20s Sunday morning. This is quicker then in previous runs.
"If" the models don't change and the temps and precip remain as they are at this time, it would look to be a 7 inches or more snow event.
The local NWS is down playing this and keeping the local temps in the 40s during the day Sunday. Yet they did mention it in the latest AFD: "WITH THE GFS BEING SLOWER WITH THURSDAYS SYSTEM AND A LITTLE FASTER AND WEAKER WITH THE WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. HAVE OPTED TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR THIS PACKAGE...BUT HAVE GONE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM."
By: cws6196, 4:56 AM GMT on December 10, 2007
By: cws6196, 4:46 AM GMT on December 06, 2007
After a day of snowing here in Central MD I measure about 3.5" in my yard with less on the driveway. It was a very nice and light to moderate snow rate most of the day.
Now the temps will rise and it will all go away.
By: cws6196, 12:18 AM GMT on December 05, 2007
The models continue to predict snow for Central MD, no getting around that. The models do differ in regards to amount of moisture as well as timing. I am liking the scenario placing the onset of snow for our area mid-morning (to late morning depending on your location). I continue to forecast up to 2 inches by day's end.
For those not into this weather; wait a minute (or a couple days), as the weekend could prove to have temps into the 60s!
By: cws6196, 1:34 PM GMT on December 04, 2007
The latest data and model runs now show an intensified Alberta Clipper for Central MD for tomorrow (Wed). It now looks as if we could see about 2 inches of snow accumulation. The good news - this will accumulate over the course of the day, so we should not get socked all at once. Roadways and other non-grassy surfaces should see even less accumulation due to the temps of the surfaces. Enjoy!
By the way; the snow that was occurring here last night and into the early morning was actually lake effect snow off of Lake Erie. The winds were so strong to have carried the snows from the Lake all the way to our area.
By: cws6196, 8:43 PM GMT on December 03, 2007
Another look at the data and I don't see this as a major event for Central MD. I would see this as a dusting mainly on the grassy areas. Even though there is moisture in the atmosphere, the air is generally dry and so most precip will evaporate.
If things change I will let you know. As an aside, I am currently in Portland, ME and we now have 5" of snow and more is falling.
By: cws6196, 6:23 AM GMT on December 03, 2007
There is a possibility for snow early Wednesday morning during the morning commute in Central MD. At this time it could be anywhere from a dusting to an inch of accumulation. The issue though is the timing and exact location to indicate the amount. The temps will favor snow though.
This is early and I will keep you posted best I can.