I provide a weather email service for people in MD. I am a storm chaser & Skywarn spotter. For daily weather tidbits follow me on Twitter: @wxmanMD.
By: cws6196, 4:56 PM GMT on September 26, 2007
Later this evening a cold front moves closer to the area. There is a chance of showers tonight, but mainly in W MD and possibly into Central MD. Thursday, as the front moves through, has a greater potential for rain. Although rain that does fall will be light and somewhat scattered. We definitely need a more substantial rainfall, but most areas will not see it. There is a chance for an isolated thunderstorm, but at this time, I just don't see it happening. As the front moves through looks like we could be in for more normal temps around here (mid 70s).
By: cws6196, 12:11 PM GMT on September 08, 2007
As of this morning the tropical disturbance is now classified as Subtropical Storm Gabrielle. It doesn't appear Gabrielle will increase much more then where she is now.
The current track has Gabrielle headed for the Carolina coast then beginning a turn toward the NE. At this time I see Gabrielle minimally impacting Central MD if at all. Again, depending on the movement of the cold front to the W of us will determine how far inland Gabrielle goes. But I really don't see Gabrielle impacting us. Currently the local NWS has issued a Coastal Flood Warning for the upper Chesapeake due to many factors, including Gabrielle.
Please note: the rains we will have tomorrow and into Monday are not Gabrielle. A cold front is approaching the area from the W and will produce the rains we will encounter.
By: cws6196, 3:33 PM GMT on September 07, 2007
This was just posted by the Hurricane Center. Seems to confirm my earlier post. Once this moves W I will have a better idea as to timing of precip for Central MD as well as amounts. For the moment I will stick to my previous email.
000 ABNT20 KNHC 071515 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1130 AM EDT FRI SEP 7 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING WITHIN THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER KNABB
By: cws6196, 11:31 AM GMT on September 07, 2007
Well, the wind shear has been taking it's toll on the system more then originally thought it would. Also, the dry air in the atmosphere has been dampening any growth.
Will this just die? I don't think think so, but I don't at all see it as a hurricane - probably not even a tropical storm. But ... the center of the system should still begin a turn toward the coast, bringing with it all the moisture it has been carrying. Right now it looks like the Carolina's will be hit, with a turn to the N after that. Therefore, by mid-week Maryland has a high probability of seeing rain from this system. But ... another complication is the arrival of a cold front from the W. If that front moves in faster then the models are now depicting it will push this system away from land and we in MD will not see any precip from this.
By: cws6196, 6:34 PM GMT on September 04, 2007
Invest 99 is currently off the coast of FL with winds of 30 mph. There are many issues effecting this group of storms though. Currently there is wind shear which is not allowing it to grow as well as a trough and high pressure. But some of the model data reduce the shear in the next day or so.
A couple of the model runs show this system growing (one has it a category 3 hurricane) and moving N and even NNW. If this is the case there is potential, by the weekend, of this system at least grazing the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay if not more inland.
At this time, for those in Central MD I wouldnt overly worry about this, as there are many factors, but I would definately be aware of it's presence. I do predict this will be at least a tropical depression if not a tropical storm by tomorrow.
By: cws6196, 1:24 PM GMT on September 03, 2007
May you all have a wonderful Labor Day. The weather here in Central MD couldnt be better.
By: cws6196, 2:27 PM GMT on September 02, 2007
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 1 2007
...NOTABLE 2007 SUMMER CLIMATE SUMMARY FACTS...
SUMMER 2007 IN BALTIMORE WAS STILL WARM AND DRY...BUT DID NOT RANK
IN THE TOP 20 WARMEST OR DRIEST SUMMERS.
IT CONTINUES DRY ESPECIALLY IF TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE VERY DRY
MONTH OF MAY 2007. IN FACT...AT DULLES AIRPORT IT IS THE DRIEST FOUR
MONTH PERIOD ON RECORD...1963-2007...WITH ONLY 6.68 INCHES OF RAIN.
ALSO...BOTH WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...FOR THE FOUR MONTH PERIOD OF
MAY THROUGH AUGUST 2007 RANK IN THE TOP 10 DRIEST FOR THAT PERIOD.
AT BALTIMORE MD...BWI THURGOOD MARSHALL AIRPORT...JUN-AUG 2007:
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE.......... 76.0F (TIED 48TH WARMEST- 135 YRS)
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL: +1.7F (NORMAL IS 74.3F)
MEASURED PRECIPITATION....... 8.59 INCHES (24TH DRIEST)
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL: -2.43 INCHES (NORMAL IS 11.02 IN)
# DAYS MAX TEMP >= 90F: 33 (NORMAL IS 25; LAST YEAR 2006: 37)
# >=90F DAYS BY MONTH IN 2007... JUN...7 JUL...10 AUG...16
# >=90F DAYS BY MONTH NORMALS... JUN...6 JUL...12 AUG...7