Don making final approach on southern Texas, 91L may be a threat down the road

By: caneswatch , 6:18 PM GMT on July 29, 2011

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Tropical Storm Don is currently making his final approach on southern Texas this afternoon. Winds are currently 50 mph, and he's moving WNW at 15 mph. Don is expected to make landfall inbetween Corpus Christi and Brownsville later on this evening.



91L will probably be a huge threat down the road. Right now, the NHC is giving 91L a 30% chance of developing by Sunday afternoon, but right now I'd give it a 40-50% chance. 91L is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles sometime Monday. Farther down the road, it's currently up in the air. Models show that 91L will impact the Lesser Antilles, and pass through Hebert Box #1, which historically shows that major hurricanes that pass through there hit south Florida, and moving in the general direction of the Bahamas/Florida. I'm not saying that this will definitely hit south Florida, but it's very possible down the road into next week. HWRF shows a "stairstep" type motion through 5 days and missing the Lesser Antilles to the north. SHIPS shows 91L becoming a hurricane 3-5 days from now. Right now, everyone in the Lesser Antilles/Puerto Rico area should be watching the progress of 91L.

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4. barbados246
8:12 PM GMT on July 29, 2011
Thanks for the update
Member Since: May 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 116
3. caneswatch
7:42 PM GMT on July 29, 2011
Quoting palmasdelrio:
what is hebert's box/


It's named after a former forecaster at the NHC. There's two of them, one covering the Lesser Antilles and one in the western Caribbean. He noticed that most (just over 9 out of 10) major hurricanes since 1900 that struck south Florida had also gone through those boxes. Here's the Wikipedia article on them:

Hebert's Box
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
2. palmasdelrio
7:31 PM GMT on July 29, 2011
what is hebert's box/
Member Since: May 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 182

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