This is the official blog for Bryan Norcross, Hurricane Specialist at The Weather Channel.
By: Bryan Norcross, 12:57 PM GMT on September 03, 2015
The Erika frenzy in Florida is a fading memory, but maybe it shouldn’t be forgotten quite so quickly. It was just a week ago that much of the media was panting over the National Hurricane Center forecast of a hurricane in the vicinity of Florida and the governor declared a “state of emergency”.
There was no emergency in Florida, of course, but this was the headline on media outlets, both local and national. I asked Governor Rick Scott if “state ...
Updated: 12:57 PM GMT on September 03, 2015
By: Bryan Norcross, 2:50 PM GMT on August 29, 2015
As a named tropical system, Erika is done, at least for now. But, despite rumors to the contrary, its weather is not. As expected, a combination of the mountains of Hispaniola and unfavorable atmospheric factors shredded the system as it moved past Haiti and toward Cuba. A new center swirl formed just north of the Cuban coast, but it’s not strong enough and it doesn’t have enough organized thunderstorm activity associated with it to count as a Tropical Storm ...
Updated: 2:52 PM GMT on August 29, 2015
By: Bryan Norcross, 2:34 PM GMT on August 28, 2015
The chances of Florida getting hit by an intensifying hurricane are lower today because the likelihood of Erika running into the giant mountains in the Dominican Republic and Haiti is now much higher. As I discussed the last couple of days, those mountains would be expected to disrupt Erika’s circulation meaning that the system that emerges on the other side is at best disorganized and perhaps completely disrupted.
It’s not out of the question that E...
Updated: 4:53 PM GMT on August 28, 2015
By: Bryan Norcross, 1:23 PM GMT on August 27, 2015
Tropical Storm Erika is a little stronger this morning, but is still plenty messy, and still not organized enough to presume that the models can get a good handle on it so we can have confidence in the long-term forecast. Strong unfavorable upper-level winds are keeping the system from pulling itself together. When tropical systems are discombobulated, the forecasts are always suspicious, and prone to change every time there is a new model run. So there is no sen...
By: Bryan Norcross, 2:21 PM GMT on August 26, 2015
Erika is still on track to affect Florida beginning on Sunday afternoon. The question is, what kind of storm will it be? Boiling down the meteorology, the storm has a gauntlet to run before it gets to the Bahamas, but, assuming it survives the trip, the atmospheric conditions may become favorable over the weekend for it to intensify pretty quickly – not far from Florida.
There is some chance the storm could go into the Gulf and some chance it will swi...