bigtrucker's WunderBlog

STAT TUNED

Posted by: bigtrucker, 1:24 AM GMT on July 11, 2009

Watching TD18 with some concerns for the Northeast. Several models, including GFS AND Euro, bring this storm up the Eastern Seaboard. How strong and what type of storm remains to be seen. Several scenerios are possible. With a negative tilt to the jet expected to be in place, it is quite possible that the storm could ride the jet and make landfall in Southern New England.
Another possibility would be for the TD to be nudged out to sea with a secondary storm forming along the East coast.
I cant post no model info due to problems with my pc but I will try and resolve this issue.

Sea surface temps

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151. bigtrucker 8:59 PM GMT on August 25, 2009
Quoting charlesimages: Dude no way you made your own sauce for hot wings? That's sweet! I dabble in sauce mixing too mainly for Hamburgers I havent in a while, but it's not too hard. I would have to look it up. then tweek it to my liking. Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 79 Comments: 6111

152. bigtrucker 9:01 PM GMT on August 25, 2009
well, I have to start sauce before I get to lazy...LOL talk to ya later. give a call later if you have time. Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 79 Comments: 6111

153. charlesimages 9:02 PM GMT on August 25, 2009
I don't see a pic for the CO model.. Wing making is easy here's what I do, get a pan, dump them in, cook in butter, then put "seasoning" on them, and smother in FRANKS RED HOT XTRA HOT SAUCE and let simmer for a while then eat. Simple yet delectable! Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 344 Comments: 29244

154. charlesimages 9:02 PM GMT on August 25, 2009
Quoting bigtrucker: well, I have to start sauce before I get to lazy...LOL talk to ya later. give a call later if you have time. okie dokie man! have fun, I should get to my wing making too :P I'll see what I'm doing later tonight =) If I'm not doing anything expect a call. Target time is 7-10PM EDT Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 344 Comments: 29244

155. charlesimages 2:03 AM GMT on August 26, 2009
I mixed some Crown Royal in with the wings, gave quite a flavor Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 344 Comments: 29244

156. bigtrucker 3:39 AM GMT on August 26, 2009
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ABOUT 350 MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO FOUND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BUT DID NOT FIND A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE AIRCRAFT DID REPORT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME AS IT CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 20 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT... OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON MARINE WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 79 Comments: 6111

157. bigtrucker 9:48 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Quoting charlesimages: I mixed some Crown Royal in with the wings, gave quite a flavor Be a man and use Old Crow....A good ole bourbon...LOL Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 79 Comments: 6111

158. bigtrucker 9:54 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
All eyes then turn to Tropical Storm Danny for the first half of the weekend. Current Sat imagery still shows an unorganized system with the low center out in front of the convection. However...TPC expects it to become more organized as it continues on a general northwest motion through Thursday...before turning more northward on Friday. An upper level trough digging into the Great Lakes region will play a significant role with the exact track of Danny. If the two systems merge...Danny would take a track closer to the coast. If not...it would track further east. Current thinking is that the two systems will remain separate. However...the latest TPC track takes it just inside of the 40n 70w benchmark which would still impact a good part of the County Warning Area. While the track and intensity remain uncertain...potential impacts would be torrential rain...gusty winds...coastal flooding...high surf...dangerous rip currents and beach erosion. Stay tuned. For the latest on Danny...refer to the forecasts/advisories from TPC. Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 79 Comments: 6111

159. charlesimages 10:04 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
So Big D has a chance of hitting you eh? Whaddya figure.. as a TS or a CAT 1? I am thinking high end TS myself. Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 344 Comments: 29244

160. bigtrucker 10:15 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Hi Charles. The center ATTM is looking to be just east of me. But a hundred miles makes a big difference. They are calling for a strengthening to a cat1. This Storm reminds me of Bob We'll see how it progresses Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 79 Comments: 6111

161. charlesimages 10:20 PM GMT on August 26, 2009
Sweet. I hope you get this one man! I'm off to mow the lawn now, take er eazy Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 344 Comments: 29244

163. OSHNBLU 12:46 AM GMT on August 27, 2009
Hey BT..how are ya man?!!! yeah, watching the tropics time for sure. Had a bunch or rain today from Titusville to Orlando....and back, not the bad storms we usually get in the pm, but steady "spittin" rain. Makes for a challenging traffic day. SSI, funny movie...seen it more than once! Member Since: July 13, 2005 Posts: 117 Comments: 5191

164. charlesimages 12:54 AM GMT on August 27, 2009
That was some good mowage XD!! I have returned Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 344 Comments: 29244

165. bigtrucker 1:42 AM GMT on August 27, 2009
SSI That is one of my favorite Bill Murray movies. Just watched it last week...LOL Hi Blu...Yeah, watching the tropics. I plan on covering whatever comes out way using video and pictures. By the time it gets to us it will be no stronger than the Nor'easters we get in the winter. Maybe a wee bit stronger. I hear you, driving in the rain is a royal pain. Hi Charles...Glad your back. unfortunately, I was not LOL want to come cut my grass? Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 79 Comments: 6111

166. bigtrucker 1:53 AM GMT on August 27, 2009
SSI your right about Bob. It is taking a very simular path that Danny is on. Watching this one closely. The models seem to underestimate the sup tropical ridge along the mid Atlantic coast. Also, if it merges with a cold front that will be very close, it will be a coast hugger. Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 79 Comments: 6111

168. bigtrucker 3:18 AM GMT on August 28, 2009
000 WTNT45 KNHC 280232 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2009 DANNY REMAINS VERY DISORGANIZED IN ITS SATELLITE PRESENTATION. LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THERE ARE A FEW CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT THIS CONVECTION SHOWS LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES. DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF DANNY HAS LITTLE VERTICAL DEPTH. A NOAA P-3 HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION IN DANNY THIS EVENING... INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. PEAK WINDS REPORTED BY THE PLANE WERE 42 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. DANNY HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS TO ITS WEST. THERE IS STILL A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE STORM TO STRENGTHEN AS GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC...WITH SOME LESSENING OF THE SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER BY 48 HOURS THE SHEAR OVER DANNY IS EXPECTED TO BE 40 KT OR MORE SO ANY INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CEASE BY THAT TIME. IN FACT...BY 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE ANALYSES IMPLY THAT DANNY MAY HAVE ALREADY BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CENTER MEANDERED ABOUT DURING THE DAY...BUT LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BEGAN SEVERAL HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THE CENTER IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISCERN ON RECENT INFRARED IMAGES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 330/7. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED. DANNY SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERALLY NORTHWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ON THE EAST SIDE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THEREAFTER A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SHOULD CARRY DANNY OR ITS POST-TROPICAL COUNTERPART NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT AN INCREASED FORWARD SPEED. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EASTWARD AS IT BECOMES WELL EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE...NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER NEW WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED ON FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY IF THE FORECAST TRACK SHIFTS TO THE WEST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 28.4N 73.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 29.7N 74.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 29/0000Z 32.5N 74.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 29/1200Z 36.5N 73.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 30/0000Z 40.5N 69.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 31/0000Z 47.5N 59.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 01/0000Z 50.5N 46.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 02/0000Z 51.0N 31.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 79 Comments: 6111

169. OGal 10:47 AM GMT on August 28, 2009
Hi Art, have been meaning to stop by. Your cutie on Ice Road truckers is too much. I love the way she is not afraid to fix anything that happens to her truck, like the bungie cord to make the tail lights work. Anyway i thought about you last night. We had a pipe leading to the outside from our air condtioner back up and we had water all over the garage. Hubby rushed to Home Depot and got a small snake and got most of the clogged stuff out. The air condtioner guy did come and with a shop vac sucked the rest out. Well, long story short now hubby is going to get a shop vac. We had one once but don't know what happened to it. Our air conditioner guy also said to once a month pour white vinegar throught the lines. That will help to keep the yuck for clogging up the pipe. Ya learn something new everyday. Yep, I think Danny will be a strong noreaster for you guys. Sure could have been alot worse. I am concerned about the latest invest. Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19183

170. bigtrucker 8:27 PM GMT on August 28, 2009
Hi Ogal!! Yes, Lisa is something else on the show. LOL. She really makes a hard job look easy and is on the way to proving herself as a heavy haul trucker. I would love to drive shotgun with her, or anyone else, and capture the beauty they drive through. Yes, you can use vinager to keep the sludge from building up in the line, but a maintenance should be done on a yearly basis. Clearing the condensate line is part of that maintenance. along with washing indoor and outdoor coils. Look at your outdoor unit if possible. If you see dirt,lint,grass etc stuck on the coil you need to have it cleaned. If you have any question, call me. Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 79 Comments: 6111

171. charlesimages 3:56 AM GMT on September 09, 2009
Good evening Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 344 Comments: 29244

172. bigtrucker 6:51 AM GMT on September 09, 2009
Hi Charles Been awhile, work and other stuff had me on the run and away from the puter. hope all is well, say hi to mom and sis for me. Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 79 Comments: 6111

173. bigtrucker 8:52 PM GMT on September 09, 2009
Coastal Flood Advisory Statement as of 3:53 PM EDT on September 09, 2009 ... Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 11 am to 5 PM EDT Thursday... The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a coastal Flood Advisory... which is in effect from 11 am to 5 PM EDT Thursday. In addition... a persistent east to northeast flow will produce tidal departures of one and a half to two feet above normal Thursday afternoon... producing widespread minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide on Thursday. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore. ... ... ... ... ... ..time of... ... .height... ... minor... ... ... Forecast location... ... ..high tide... ..Of tide... flood height... ... height ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .(Mllw)... ..(Mllw)... ... ... .(mllw) Ocean: The Battery... ... .1225 PM... ... ..5.1... ... ... 6.7... ... ... ... 6.6 Sandy Hook... ... ..1208 PM... ... ..5.3... ... ... ---... ... ... ... 6.9 Bergen Point... ... 1224 PM... ... ..5.7... ... ... ---... ... ... ... 7.3 Freeport Creek... .1245 PM... ... ..3.4... ... ... 5.2... ... ... ... 5.5 Western sound... Kings Point... ... ..326 PM... ... ..8.2... ... ... ---... ... ... ... 9.7 Stamford... ... ... ..349 PM... ... ..7.9... ... ... 9.5... ... ... ... 9.6 Bridgeport... ... ... 346 PM... ... ..7.4... ... ... 8.9... ... ... ... 9.0 Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 79 Comments: 6111

174. toddluck 8:53 PM GMT on September 09, 2009
hey BT hows things check out my new ride in my blog Member Since: April 28, 2006 Posts: 209 Comments: 14188

175. seflagamma 3:01 PM GMT on September 26, 2009
Good morning BT, Just wanted to stop by and say Hello! and wish you a happy weekend! take care, Weekend Comments Myspace Comments - Myspace 2.0 Layouts Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 287 Comments: 40512

176. bigtrucker 4:21 PM GMT on September 26, 2009
Hi Gams!! Thank you for stopping by!! Today is ok, tonight and tomorrow will be rainy. Hope your weekend is great!!! Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 79 Comments: 6111

177. PeaceRiverBP 4:32 PM GMT on September 26, 2009
{{{BT}}}; I had hoped that we'd be able to get together this summer since we don't live too far apart but it was so hectic this year :-( We can always try again now that it's fall. We took The Ark up to the Lake Champlain Islands in Vermont for a ten day camping trip and we're hoping to go to do a little more camping before the snow flies. Hope all is well! Member Since: November 16, 2002 Posts: 70 Comments: 7171

178. bigtrucker 11:11 PM GMT on September 26, 2009
{{{Peace}}} I know it has been busy for me too!! Getting together would be nice!! Vermont IS very beautiful, If you like camping and hiking you cant go wrong there!! Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 79 Comments: 6111

179. AuntBrooke 6:53 AM GMT on September 27, 2009
Hey Art, just stopping by to say hello...been incredibly busy...sorry I haven't been here or called. Take care! Member Since: November 10, 2008 Posts: 47 Comments: 7304

180. charlesimages 7:59 AM GMT on September 27, 2009
Hey Art that jet is as strong as I have seen in a while!! Gonna get wild around my place later tonight maybe,.. slight risk for severe for me.. then heavy winds with the remains of chio-wan coming in, Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 344 Comments: 29244

181. palmettobug53 10:26 AM GMT on September 27, 2009
Wakey, wakey! Good God... What am I doing up at this hour on Sunday morning? Oh, yeah.. Hubby was having some serious leg and arm twitching or something going on. Woke me up. He'd quiet down and I'd start to nod back off again and he'd have another spasm of whatever it was. After about a dozen rounds of that, I decided to just go ahead and get up. I need caffeine... Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 208 Comments: 21694

182. bigtrucker 4:33 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Hi Brooke I thought you faded away...glad to see ya around and hope school is going good Charles Yes, the pattern is changing...The northern branch of the jet stream is on the move south, which will put us into fall rather quickly. Most importantly, it kicked out that cut off low that was responsible for all the flooding in GA Bug wow, your up early on a Sunday morn, thats for sure. Yeah, once your up and distracted it's hard to get back to sleep. trying to force yourself back into slumberland never works. Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 79 Comments: 6111

183. AuntBrooke 6:48 PM GMT on September 27, 2009
Hi Art...LOL...yeah, a lot of people think that. I am just very busy with school...our mid terms are this week and next and so I have a couple of last minute things to do, plus being an RA isn't helping things along with normal life that I have to live. It's all good though and i'm loving it, it's just a very busy time. I'll try to stop in more often...normally I'll say hello on Emmy's blog and sometimes Patti's, but it's rare for me to be on someone else's blog. Take care! Member Since: November 10, 2008 Posts: 47 Comments: 7304

186. seflagamma 9:49 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Hey BT, Take cover if it gets too bad. Glad you are keeping an eye on the bad weather heading your way! Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 287 Comments: 40512

187. bigtrucker 10:03 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Hi Gams...It's in my blood...LOL I'll be taking cover with my camera handy. Warm front lifted north this AM with a cold front now approaching the area. Strong storms have developed as forecasted to. Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 79 Comments: 6111

188. OGal 10:34 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Wow Art, that looks like Florida stuff. Hope they miss you entirely. Have been thinking about you. We just found out we need out duct work replaced. Just another expense. It has been one thing right after another. Please be careful. Take cover when you need to. That is one nasty looking storm. Itsn't it kind of strange for you to have that kind of storm this time of year?? Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19183

189. charlesimages 10:41 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
AWESOME ART!! I hope you got some good shots bro! I heard about this through a buddy on FB who lives in CT. Man, t-storms rule Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 344 Comments: 29244

190. bigtrucker 10:43 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Hi ogal Yes, very unusual for this type of pattern. Well, the tornado warning has been dropped, storms stayed mainly just to the north and west. We did get some heavy rain and you could feel the updraft. Wow, do you have mold in your duct work?? Wish I was there, you would get the WU discount. Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 79 Comments: 6111

191. bigtrucker 10:46 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Hi Charles. We just missed the storms. They stayed just to the north and west. I knew yesterday we would be getting the storms and charged the camera up, but nothing worthwhile came here Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 79 Comments: 6111

192. OGal 11:03 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Art, no mold the duct work is just falling apart. We didn't know it until we had to have new TV cable run from our attic to our entertainment center. The guy said wow, I thought it would be hot in your attic but it is nice and cool. Bingo, problem. Our house was built in 88 so the duct work is just old. Oh well, will get it fixed sooner or later :) Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19183

193. charlesimages 11:03 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
MISS?! Awww... That's too bad man. Weren't able to go chasing?? Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 344 Comments: 29244

194. charlesimages 11:03 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Hey OGal ;) Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 344 Comments: 29244

195. bigtrucker 11:06 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Charles No not worth it. The storms were moving quickly. Flood watches now posted but the storms have moved out Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 79 Comments: 6111

196. bigtrucker 11:08 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
sorry to hear that ogal. Yes, you need your ductwork sealed tightly. Not leaking into the attic. Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 79 Comments: 6111

197. charlesimages 11:11 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Yeah Art those fast movers are hard to chase, well maybe next time =) Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 344 Comments: 29244

198. bigtrucker 11:20 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
I think the next thing we will be dealing with is snow!!! Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 79 Comments: 6111

199. OGal 11:23 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Hi Charles, watching the Notre Dame, Washington game. They are now in overtime. Charles I will pop by your blog tomorrow. South Bend is sure getting lots of rain. Great game to watch. I think Michigan is getting all the rain and that is why we aren't getting any. Oh and I love that Michigan State beat Michigan. Art if you come down this way there is plenty of business. Everyone is falling apart. Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19183

200. charlesimages 11:32 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
Ew snow LOL but that's good for you Art! ARGH OGal! GO BLUE! I love them still even if they lost XD We have that darned cutoff low that has us under pesky clouds and drizzly/rainy conditions This cool cloudy weather will speed up the Fall Colors... Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 344 Comments: 29244

201. bigtrucker 11:42 PM GMT on October 03, 2009
LOL snow is no good....Cold air is good. When the polar air is here the workload goes up Ogal, I bet there is work available there. Nobody in FL can live without their a/c..LOL ;-) Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 79 Comments: 6111

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