Weather - September 1

By: beell , 1:19 AM GMT on September 01, 2014

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83. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
10:57 AM GMT on October 01, 2014
beell has created a new entry.
82. Barefootontherocks
1:03 AM GMT on October 01, 2014
Aww, my hero. :) I thought you did that on purpose.

Duly noted that Day 2 outlook just a little while ago. Those risk area blobbies tend to drop SW when there's dry line setup potential. If you have time to keep an eye on it as only you can, I'd be much obliged. (Watching a western movie. lpl The cowboys and Indians are killing the aliens. What a concept.)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19227
81. beell
12:07 AM GMT on October 01, 2014
Aww,,, it was nothing. Really. ;P

Dang, good one, bf...never saw it coming!

Didn't think much of tomorrow's SPC risk area yesterday (the Day 3). As the main low pressure center pulls away to the north over Canada I assumed the LLJ would begin to ease. A well-mixed boundary layer leading to some LCL's (the cloud base to make it simple) on the high side, and the main mid-level vort associated with the shortwave-a late arrival. A low risk for a tornado or two.

Some of the above may still be in-play but I can't ignore the more aggressive SPC Day 2. If not the dryline, a segment of the Pacific front should be trailing south from the surface low in western KS and the northern cold front also tied to the low. Triple point should easily allow surface based storms from central KS towards the NE corner of the state-where the greatest tornado threat may evolve. Well-covered by today's SPC Day 2 risk area!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
80. beell
12:06 AM GMT on October 01, 2014

1730Z Day 2 Probabilistic Outlook

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...MID MO VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...CNTRL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY...
A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE SFC...A LOW WILL DEEPEN IN THE CNTRL PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS ERN KS AND SE NEB AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WITH A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED NEAR THE NOSE OF THE JET IN SE NEB AND NE KS. MODEL CONSENSUS WEAKENS THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS FROM NRN OK NWD INTO ERN NEB. THE DEEPENING SFC LOW SHOULD HELP LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO BECOME ENHANCED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW. MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TOPEKA AND EMPORIA KS AT 00Z/THURSDAY SHOW IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 55 TO 60 KT. SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT IS FORECAST FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT 800 MB. THIS SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION...0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 350 TO 400 M2/S2 MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND A STRONG TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD ALSO EXIST WITH SUPERCELLS BUT MAY ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING WITH ANY SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS THAT CAN ORGANIZE. HAVE ADDED A 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE IN PARTS OF ERN KS AND FAR SE NEB WHERE THE STRONGEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS FORECAST AND WHERE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO BE THE GREATEST. OTHER SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP NWD INTO ECNTRL NEB AND SW IA.

...SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY AS A 45 TO 55 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES ENEWD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL BE SLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS AS A LOW DEEPENS ACROSS SRN KS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SHOULD ENABLE MODERATE INSTABILITY TO BE IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON AS A DRYLINE SETS UP ACROSS PARTS OF WRN OK AND NW TX. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES ENHANCED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR GAGE OK AND CLINTON OK AT 00Z/THURSDAY SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 KT WITH MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT. A THREAT FOR HAIL MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH STORMS THAT CAN INITIATE IN AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE THE MOST.

..BROYLES.. 09/30/2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
79. Barefootontherocks
9:02 PM GMT on September 30, 2014
My hero!
Aww,,, it was nothing. Really. ;P

Physical (slapstick) comedy is not my fave, but by the time all three were changing hats looking like a shell game, I was cracking up. Wouldn't have been as funny without the lead-in movements. Just like with spoken (or typed) - gotta have something to play off of/with.
:)

Thanks.

Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19227
78. beell
12:04 PM GMT on September 30, 2014
Morning, bf!

Groucho never missed an opportunity in that clip you linked. My hero!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
77. beell
11:55 AM GMT on September 30, 2014
It's possible that greater surface convergence and slight tornado risk will evolve ahead of the cold front across the eastern half of OK into far north-central TX early on Thursday afternoon. Perhaps a shift to the west in the risk area in future SPC guidance.

With a predominately unidirectional wind profile, a fast-moving squall line should indeed be the primary convective mode.


click for all Day 3 Outlook graphics

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

...MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/ARKLATEX...

PRONOUNCED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE PROGRESSING INTO ERN KS/OK/NERN TX BY 03/00Z. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...LIKELY BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING ACROSS ERN KS/OK.

FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD SHOULD AID NWD ADVANCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS TX INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. EARLY IN THE PERIOD LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS IA INTO SWRN WI/NWRN IL. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IT APPEARS MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES INTO THE MS VALLEY WHERE 6-8HR OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD AID INSTABILITY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A LINEAR BAND OF STORMS WILL FORM ALONG COLD FRONT WITH INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED AFTER 18Z AS WEAK CAP IS REMOVED. SEASONALLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AID EWD MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION AT SPEEDS AOA 30KT. SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE MS RIVER BY 03/00Z. MOST BUOYANT AIRMASS IS EXPECTED NEAR THE ARKLATEX AND STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL ACROSS THIS REGION.

..DARROW.. 09/30/2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
76. beell
11:07 AM GMT on September 30, 2014
A taste of Fall with the first cold front of the season to easily/aggressively clear the coast. Saturday morning looks gorgeous for the Houston area with lows in the 55-60° range from north to south. Relative Humidity's around 50% and a cool NE breeze.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
408 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A BIT ON ITS STRENGTH BUT ARE CLOSE IN TIMING. BOTH MODELS PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SE TX THURSDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.

THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REACH EITHER TO AROUND 90 OR INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. RIGHT NOW THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY. MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PLUS SEABREEZE ACTIVITY MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH DAY.

OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY BROUGHT THE FRONT OFF THE COAST AROUND 7 AM ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z RUNS CONTINUED THIS TIMING. THE QPF FIELDS FOR BOTH MODELS PROVIDE GOOD COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW DO NOT THINK THERE WILL MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE BEST DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM AND WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH ONSHORE WINDS RETURNING BY LATE SUNDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS REACHING ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RETURN FLOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
75. Barefootontherocks
3:53 PM GMT on September 29, 2014
What's My Line? - Groucho Marx destroys the show; Claudette Colbert Sept 20, 1959
^^^^^^^^^ If you haven't watched this... for when you have time

Good Moonday, bl.
Tanks. You, too. :) Extra-busy week for me.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19227
74. beell
11:04 AM GMT on September 29, 2014
Regatta Weather (Oct 9th):

Early indications point towards a weak cold front laying off the coast from east to west and a surface ridge anchored over the midwest. Good easterly/northeasterly winds around the southern periphery of the ridge for a sail to CRP. If the boundary stalls south of the course rhumb line, isentropic lift over the boundary could lead to a cloudy, damp trip. Today's 00Z GFS shows the easterlies increaing to 15-20 knots over the northwestern gulf late Thursday evening as the ridge slides south. Climatology for this synoptic would suggest a N/S surface trough at the tail of the front along far south Texas/northeastern coast of Mexico. A "between the weather" pattern would be the best guess at this time.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
73. beell
2:58 AM GMT on September 29, 2014
That pretty cow only stopped in because of the bull you posted.

And I have posted plenty over the years. There should be a whole herd!

Have a great week.
:)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
72. Barefootontherocks
11:52 PM GMT on September 28, 2014
Perfect, bf, lol!
And that right there is one pretty cow. I would give her at least a 4-5 on the JUI (Jersey Udder Index).


That pretty cow only stopped in because of the bull you posted.

(Yeah, I know. Lame.)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19227
71. beell
3:31 PM GMT on September 28, 2014
Hi, Linda,
"Always classy" is a description that is better suited (usually) to the drive-by contributors than the blog owner!

Do you have a new work space? A "fancy shed"?

Not well-tied to the Texas sailing community-so, thanks for the Regatta reminder. A great reason/excuse to watch the trends and forecasts over the next two weeks as we transition to Fall.

Don't think we'll have have any tropical threat but it may be safe to assume there will be a cold front approaching, moving through, or clearing the coast (yeah, I'm really sticking my forecast neck out there). All three synoptics can bring some interesting weather for a coastal sailor.

Some warmth this week followed by a nice, perfectly seasonable cold front shaping up towards Friday.

Perfect, bf, lol!
And that right there is one pretty cow. I would give her at least a 4-5 on the JUI (Jersey Udder Index).
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
70. Barefootontherocks
2:04 AM GMT on September 27, 2014
A four-cup design (or needs one).Probably a Jersey.

Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19227
69. Thoughtsteader
1:43 AM GMT on September 27, 2014
Always a classy place here, beell ~ humor, low-tech gadgets, good music and just enough attitude to keep things interesting.

I don't even know what I was doing during all that rain. Probably staring out the window, or more likely working under my fancy shed. But we got over five inches, and it was wonderful. The tides surely have been up, though. Yesterday, the grasses in the slough on the Seabrook side of the 146 bridge were completely under water. Today? Not so much, and the birds were back. Pretty soon it's going to be October, and I notice the water temperatures are dropping.

But don't turn your back. They scheduled the Harvest Moon regatta for October 9 - if anything could entice a little (ahem) weather, that could.

Member Since: January 16, 2014 Posts: 40 Comments: 542
68. aquak9
9:27 PM GMT on September 26, 2014
You're disgusting.

I'm never posting here again.

Until I do.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26505
67. beell
9:08 PM GMT on September 26, 2014
Quoting 65. 1900hurricane:

Meh, not a fan of the four cup design. :P


LOL! You geek, you! Something tells me this particular 4-cup design could be easily modified. A 5 mph breeze?

Quoting 66. aquak9:

Beell.

WTH is that red stuff, Playdoh? Hair ball?

Monkey brain?

(shakes head, grumbling)


The central shaft is obviously a #2 pencil so it stands to reason that it is held in place by red number two. Probably from a Red Angus.


Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
66. aquak9
2:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2014
Beell.

WTH is that red stuff, Playdoh? Hair ball?

Monkey brain?

(shakes head, grumbling)
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26505
65. 1900hurricane
12:09 PM GMT on September 26, 2014
Meh, not a fan of the four cup design. :P
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11694
64. beell
11:38 AM GMT on September 26, 2014
Anemometer

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
63. aquak9
3:45 AM GMT on September 26, 2014
That's the ugliest damn rain gauge I have ever seen.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26505
62. beell
11:33 PM GMT on September 25, 2014
I don't know, Mark. This morning's hasty post may need some editing regarding any potential severe. I have changed my view a full 360°.....

Rain seems to be the main issue. The TCRG would be up to the task of capturing storm-total rainfall.

This:



May not be up to the job. Could be used by a drought-stricken farmer to stab a Capital Farm Credit officer when they show up to foreclose on the family farm...




Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
61. NavarreMark
2:31 PM GMT on September 25, 2014
Quoting 55. beell:
But baby! These people at the bank just gave it to me! I had to choose between that, free ice cream, or an ice chest with wheels and speakers. I had to!

It's a cool gauge, made of high-quality opaque Lucite with a pointy thing on the end that allows for easy mounting right on the ground. And the name and phone number of the bank printed right on the side!!

Darlin', you know if I was going to actually buy a rain guage or any weather instrument, my first and only stop would be rainmanweather.com .

I know the owners. Nice folks.

*I have almost always been able to talk my way out of an occasional lapse of judgement or minor transgression. I still got it, huh!*


I'd consider trading in my TCRG for one of those.
Member Since: September 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3981
60. beell
11:09 AM GMT on September 25, 2014
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

VALID 281200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN CONSIDERABLY BETTER AGREEMENT AS COMPARED TO SOLUTIONS FROM PRIOR DAYS. A RELATIVELY MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PLAINS VICINITY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON DAY 5/MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND/OR SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO DAY 6/TUESDAY. IN EITHER CASE...30 PERCENT SEVERE RISK AREAS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOK UPDATES WILL FOCUS ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN APPRECIABLE REGIONAL SEVERE RISK AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK /DAYS 7-8 WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY/ ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS. THIS WILL BE AS A SECONDARY PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS.

..GUYER.. 09/25/2014
================================================= =====================

In addition to the risk and spatial uncertainty of organized severe per the 4-8 day SPC Outllook, we may also see a smaller scale conditional opportunity for severe over the southeast on Sunday. At present, my guess would be over the southern half of AL, GA, and the FL panhandle.

A unique mid/upper air pattern over the eastern 2/3 of the US-with an embedded trough moving east within the larger scale ridging


09/25 00Z GFS 250 mb heights, winds-valid Sunday, 8AM EDT

In response, a surface low developing off the coast of Louisiana and moving onshore. Strong surface ridging anchored over the lower Great Lakes should allow the development of a well-defined warm front retreating to the north during the day on Sunday. Some issues with adequate instability tied to the easterly flow of stable maritime air off the western Atlantic but perhaps 1500 J/kg CAPE on Sunday afternoon IF we get some sunshine. 0-6km shear is currently modeled AOA 30 knots. Just barely strong enough to promote rotation. I think it will be a bit better than that. At the least, some strong thunderstorms on Sunday.


Thursday's 12Z surface forecast-valid Sunday, 8AM EDT

Please forgive the incomplete and hurried post. A bit short on time this morning but will try to update this potential as well as the mid-week threat this evening.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
59. Barefootontherocks
4:43 AM GMT on September 23, 2014
Hi, bl.
Morning, bf.
Kicking and screaming, you have pulled me up out of the comfortable WU cellar of weather blogging lassitude (made sure I included the "L"). The weekend included some fun and some fu! Best 3-day estimate for rain (17th - 19th) is about 7". Remarkable!

Nice, the raining sky. Wow.

Kicking and screaming... moi? lpl

Well, ya know... Sometimes they(being life's unseen cock-a-roach miniatures) take your "n" away. Thing is, even if you keep one hand in your pocket, the other hand can hold on till another "n" arrives.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19227
58. Barefootontherocks
4:40 AM GMT on September 23, 2014
Hi aqua.
:)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19227
57. aquak9
4:04 AM GMT on September 23, 2014
bf, I am LMSAO, too~
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26505
56. Barefootontherocks
3:49 AM GMT on September 23, 2014
l
m
a
o
!
And still
:) ing
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19227
55. beell
2:22 AM GMT on September 23, 2014
But baby! These people at the bank just gave it to me! I had to choose between that, free ice cream, or an ice chest with wheels and speakers. I had to!

It's a cool gauge, made of high-quality opaque Lucite with a pointy thing on the end that allows for easy mounting right on the ground. And the name and phone number of the bank printed right on the side!!

Darlin', you know if I was going to actually buy a rain guage or any weather instrument, my first and only stop would be rainmanweather.com .

I know the owners. Nice folks.

*I have almost always been able to talk my way out of an occasional lapse of judgement or minor transgression. I still got it, huh!*
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
54. aquak9
1:18 AM GMT on September 23, 2014
the "real" rain gauge???

WHAT "REAL" RAIN GAUGE IS THAT??

HMMM????
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26505
53. beell
12:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2014
Morning, bf.
Kicking and screaming, you have pulled me up out of the comfortable WU cellar of weather blogging lassitude (made sure I included the "L"). The weekend included some fun and some fu! Best 3-day estimate for rain (17th - 19th) is about 7". Remarkable!

Here comes the autumnal equinox!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
454 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TO NEAR CRS-JSO LINE BUT THE DRY AIR IS SLOWER TO ARRIVE BUT SHOULD ACCELERATE AS THE MIXING GETS GOING TODAY. EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MARCH SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN AREAS BUT DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HELP TO OVERCOME THE WEAK CAPPING ALONG THE FRONT AND MAY INTERACT WITH THE SEABREEZE. 87 DEGREES LOOKS LIKE THE NEEDED TEMPERATURE AND SO HAVE MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SOUTHWEST OF THE CORRIDOR IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PROFILE DOESN`T LOOK PARTICULARLY THREATENING...CAPE 500-1200...LI -1 TO -2...BACKING WIND PROFILE...AND DRY ABOVE 850. GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORM MOTIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. BY 9 PM THE STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OVER THE GULF AND PRESSING SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY MID LEVELS SAGS SOUTH AND SHOULD KEEP SETX DRY FOR THE WEEK. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION STRETCHING DOWN INTO TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE MOISTURE CREEPING BACK NORTH THU-SUN BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE GULF WITH JUST BRIEF PERIODS HERE OR THERE FOR THE SHRA/TSRA TO REACH THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD GIVE THE REGION A GREAT TASTE OF FALL. FALL OFFICIALLY BEGINS THIS EVENING AT 929 PM.

Tropics are quiet. Continued mid-latitude troughing with a closed low moving along or just off the mid-Atlantic states over the next three days. Cold mid-level temps pointing the way to another baroclinic (non-tropical) system.


09/22 00Z GFS 500 mb temps

Some blob action as a the aforementioned trough leaves a weak piece of energy (trough split) over the southeastern gulf towards the end of the week. Not much hope for an organized blob at this point.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
52. Barefootontherocks
5:15 PM GMT on September 21, 2014
Hi bl,
Haha, rain gauge. :) Glad your area received significant rain. Forecast changed here. Odile remnants didn't reach central OK.
Hope you woofed yourself right into a fun weekend. lpl First time I typed "fun" the "n" did not appear. Unnoticed, that typo might've been interpreted opposite of my true sentiments.

Sunday's still the weekend. Enjoy!
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19227
51. beell
10:41 AM GMT on September 19, 2014
Morning, bf!

I got my 3" or more! The coffee cup rain gauge went unattended and overflowed at some point. The real rain gauge was removed prior to some yard work and not replaced. Probably 4" for Wednesday/Thursday. More on the way!

Woof! It's Friday! It's gonna rain! Woof!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
50. beell
10:38 AM GMT on September 19, 2014

(click image for all 06Z Day 2 graphics)

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST REGIONS. A FEW OF THE SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. OTHER STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE AND MODESTLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN UNDERGO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ACCELERATES SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WI/LOWER MI AND PARTS OF INDIANA/IL COINCIDENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS.

A CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW NOW TAKING SHAPE OVER CA IS FORECAST TO DRIFT INLAND/EASTWARD THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPINGE UPON ANTECEDENT SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG AND AHEAD OF A MODEST COLD FRONT SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND NORTHERN LOWER MI. LIFT ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP OVER WI/LM. RELATIVELY STOUT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AID MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/LOWER MI...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S F BY AFTERNOON. WHILE EARLY DAY STORMS MAY STRUGGLE FROM LACK OF STRONGER SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION...SUFFICIENTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM MAY EXIST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI TO SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS HAIL. STRONGER DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LIKELY TO EVOLVE FROM MS VALLEY EASTWARD TO NORTHERN IL/IND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A CORRIDOR OF SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 800-1200 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CO-LOCATED WITH STRENGTHENING UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40KT COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OR MORE ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS FROM THE IL/WI BORDER EAST TO NORTHERN IND AND LOWER MI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS AND OR A FEW SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF LIFT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH WIND AND SEVERE HAIL THREATS ARE LIKELY TO WANE BY EVENING AS EASTWARD-MOVING STORMS ENCOUNTER DIMINISHING INSTABILITY.

...GREAT BASIN...
STRONGER QG FORCING FOR ASCENT IS INDICATED IN LATEST NAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN /EASTERN NV AND SOUTHWEST UT/ BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS MID/UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST. LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT ON A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS WHERE STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT SCATTERED HIGH-BASED STORMS TO INCREASE/PERSIST AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EAST AND BELT OF 30-40KT SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADS NORTH/NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN NV INTO WESTERN UT. A COUPLE OF STRONGER CORES MAY RESULT IN MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS.

...MN/UPPER MS VALLEY...
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND LOWERING STATIC STABILITY WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 70-80KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN MN TO NORTHWEST WI. RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF LEADING FRONTAL PASSAGE...IN COMBINATION WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR AT LEAST LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION AMIDST INTENSIFYING WIND FIELDS. IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEFORE NIGHTFALL.

..CARBIN.. 09/19/2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
49. Barefootontherocks
7:24 PM GMT on September 18, 2014
47. beell
10:43 AM GMT on September 18, 2014
I'm just inside the "Rainfall greater than 3"" contour on the east side of Harris County.
:)




Click image to read WPC MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0388
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19227
48. beell
11:37 AM GMT on September 18, 2014
With top to bottom westerly flow, a squall line just ahead of the cold front may be the dominant convective mode/wind threat across the midwest. Probably end up with a slight risk over Illinois.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EASTWARD TO THE GREAT PLAINS AND NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO LOWER MICHIGAN. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND ALONG SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

...CNTRL PLAINS/MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...
A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE BASE OF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LATE AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/SUNDAY FOR CHICAGO IL AND ALPENA MI SHOW 0-6 SHEAR OF 45 TO 50 KT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT. IF MODERATE INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST...THEN A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM NE KS INTO SE IA...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN SPITE OF THIS...STRONGER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS COULD HELP COMPENSATE FOR THE WEAKNESS IN SHEAR...MAKING A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT POSSIBLE AS WELL.

..BROYLES.. 09/18/2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
47. beell
10:43 AM GMT on September 18, 2014
I'm just inside the "Rainfall greater than 3"" contour on the east side of Harris County.
:)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
455 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WET FCST TO CONTINUE TODAY BUT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF FLOOD- ING. GROUNDS WET FROM RAINS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL RAINS TODAY WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALREADY SEEING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING AS THE CONTINUED WAA FLOW COLLIDES WITH THE MORE S/SE MOVING DIS- TURBANCE COMING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX. ALSO SEEING HINTS OF YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRYING TO DIVE DOWN FROM NORTH TX. THESE SYS- TEMS COMBINED WITH THIS STILL VERY MOIST/TROPICAL AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA THRU THIS AFTN/EVE.

PER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE REST OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND FORECAST SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING BUT CONSENSUS NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS NEXT COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. PROGS APPEAR TO BE HAVING ISSUES WITH THE HANDLING OF THE REMNANTS OF ODILE AND MAY BE EXAGGERATING ITS IMPACT ON THE MAIN UPPER FLOW/PATTERN. AS SUCH WILL NOT BE CHANG- ING THE EXTENDED FCSTS (TOO MUCH) OF FROPA MON (ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDTIONS NEXT WEEK). 41




EWX Rain Totals-01:43AM Thursday through 05:23AM CDT Thursday


HGX Rain Totals-12:24AM Wednesday through 05:30AM CDT Thursday
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
46. 1900hurricane
3:30 AM GMT on September 18, 2014


MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0383
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1037 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

AREAS AFFECTED......CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 180235Z - 180735Z

SUMMARY...A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL FEED HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR TO CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX. AS THE
LOW LEVEL INFLOW OPPOSES A SLOW SOUTHEAST CELL MOVEMENT...FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX...AS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL FLOW FEEDS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 2.30 INCHES (WHICH IS ABOUT
TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) INTO THE REGION.
THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL OPPOSE WEAK CORFIDI VECTOR
(WHICH WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS)...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW MOVING OR EVEN BACK BUILDING CELLS.

THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD LEAD TO RAINFALL RATES AS
HIGH AS 2 INCHES AN HOUR (WHICH HAS ALREADY BEEN ESTIMATED BY THE
KHGX RADAR). THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT (INCLUDING
THE 23Z HRRR AND 18Z NAM CONEST) SUGGEST THAT LOCAL 2 TO 4 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH...BUT THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR FLASH FLOODING IS THROUGH ABOUT 05Z.
AFTER THAT TIME...THE INSTABILITY WANES...AND THE SSEO
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON 31609849 31599830 31559812 31489784 31409767
31309746 31269741 31069690 30889646 30799624
30769608 30679594 30459566 30209543 30029535
29849537 29649541 29529544 29239557 29079588
28959621 28929642 28949647 28949705 29119743
29519793 29929841 30449882 30739892 31049903
31259904 31399900 31519881 31579865
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11694
45. beell
11:31 AM GMT on September 17, 2014
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
446 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION... NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE GOING FCST OF CONTINUED RAINS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW. VERY HIGH PWS NOTED OVER THE REGION (~2.3") AND NOT EXPECTING THAT WE WILL NEED A LOT OF HEATING FOR PCPN DEVEL- OPMENT TO START AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN. AS THIS MOISTURE LINGERS INTO TOMORROW WE MAY HAVE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE TO DEAL WITH AS WELL. WILL LIKELY KEEP WITH AVG RAINFALL TOTALS FROM .5 TO 1`...ISO 3-4" TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE SOME BY FRI (ON INTO THE WEEKEND) WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THE UPPER TROF (ODILE REM- NANTS). HOWEVER WILL BE KEEPING ISO/SCT POPS IN FOR THIS PERIOD AS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS KEEPING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AOA MON...BUT WITH VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH. ECMWF KEEPING ITS FROPA A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN GFS ATTM...BUT GIVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT PROGS OF A FAIRLY DEEP N/NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR THIS TIME FRAME. 41
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
44. beell
10:51 AM GMT on September 17, 2014
Odile gets renamed by the SPC-"A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH". The mid-level remains of O has the unfortunate timing of leaving the desert southwest (if you're a severe weather fan) and trying to move through strong ridging across the Rockies and western plains states-with quite a bit of deamplification and weakening possible. Still strong enough to help pull the southern end of the cold front through the central plains and supply some moisture for beneficial rains across NM, the panhandle of TX, and on into KS.

The much stronger northern stream trough may bring some severe to northern Illinois on Saturday afternoon with frontal passage. So far, not looking too scary.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS AND MID MO VALLEYS AND MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD INTO THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY/DAY 4. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD INTO KS...NEB..IA AND WI DURING THE DAY...ALONG WHICH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS AMPLIFY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND MOVE IT EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY/DAY 5. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS HAVE A COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOCATED FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND A FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON MONDAY/DAY 6 WITH THE ECMWF AGAIN THE SLOWER SOLUTION. A COLD FRONT REACHES THE CAROLINAS AND GULF COAST STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WHICH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SHARPLY ON TUESDAY/DAY 7.

AT THIS POINT...THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT DURING THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING INSTABILITY AND TIMING REMAINS TOO HIGH TO WARRANT ADDING A SEVERE THREAT AREA.

..BROYLES.. 09/17/2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
43. beell
11:16 AM GMT on September 16, 2014
Hi, aqua!

I have. It's easier and less time-consuming to lurk through the weather this season than blogging about it. Slow does not bother me in the least anymore. If you're a lazy, burnt-out, blogger-slow is good!

I still scroll through Doc M's blog at least once a day. This is a much faster process than it used to be.
;-)

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
42. aquak9
2:25 PM GMT on September 15, 2014
good morning, good day, and good week to beell and beel'zeh'bubs

what a curiously slow Season™ we've had, I wonder if other folks have spent more time in the real world, than is normal for us- no waking at 2am for the next TWO, no living and breathing after being awake for 22 hours, just waiting for the NEXT dropsonde decode-

anyway, peace be with all of you- weather on
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26505
41. beell
11:28 AM GMT on September 15, 2014
xOdile has some modeled potential to promote a round of severe weather over the central plains towards the end of this week. GFS puts the mid-level vorticity out in front (ahead) of the incoming west coast shortwave trough and steals the show. A decently strong LLJ should be in place in response to this mid-level disturbance tracking northeast across the central plains.

A couple negatives for the tornado potential:

1. The meridonal nature of the wind profile that is common to a stacked system. A strong surface low with attendant warm front in tandem with a prefrontal surface trough should allow surface winds to back enough to allow adequate values of low level shear at the least.
2. Shortwave ridging ahead of xOdile. Perhaps pointing to a linear QLCS system along the frontal boundary.

An eventual merger with the northern stream energy over the upper midwest may extend the severe potential on into the upper Great Lakes on Saturday.

A weak cut-off low originating from the northern stream shortwave may remain over the desert southwest and lead to a continuation of unsettled weather/rainfall through the weekend.

Current guess would place the highest initial potential over N central Kansas and Nebraska on Friday afternoon. Probably not worth the effort to extend this guess past Friday at this point. Models don't seem to be giving much weight to xOdile's severe potential at this point and the SPC remains focused on the northern stream system-so all of the above could end up being a hype-cast.


09/15 06Z GFS 500 mb heights, winds, vorticity-valid Friday, 4PM CDT


09/15 00Z GFS 850 mb heights, winds, temp-valid Friday, 4PM CDT
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
40. beell
9:21 PM GMT on September 13, 2014
Afternoon, Linda!

Those bears don't seem to be too concerned. The window of opportunity for 92L to organize is much smaller than it looked a couple of days ago. It is moving faster than I thought. For now, upper level winds (shear) won't ease until this system is almost on the coast-and the upper level "calm" won't last long.

Enjoying the northerly breeze today. It was a bit stronger 6 yrs ago!

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
39. Thoughtsteader
3:37 PM GMT on September 12, 2014
I thought things were looking a little iffy this morning, so I checked things out and discovered a funnel cloud report from right between me and my Toyota dealership.

Then, I decided maybe it was time to check out the Gulf again. I'm glad I did. Guess I'd better go find a bear or two.

When bears hang out, waiting to watch...


Member Since: January 16, 2014 Posts: 40 Comments: 542
38. beell
10:55 AM GMT on September 12, 2014
Hi, bf.
Nice lookin' storm. Nice evening to be a horse.

I don't think 92L will turn too early. And it should make the southeast gulf with its well-defined wave structure intact. Zonal westerly flow across the gulf coast states continues eroding the narrow steering ridge and the northeasterly shear should drop off quite a bit on Tuesday(?). It could be heading my way during the early part of next week. The bears are watching. A literal interpretation of the models points toward no development.

I think aqua is growing a garden and Tf may be in love with Ms. Right...or maybe just Ms. Rightnow!

Anyway, TGIF to you.

Morning, WW.
Well, heck. I love a good mystery. I'll keep looking but may hit a dead end without enough info to enter a taxonomy reference. (opposite leaved, alternate leaves, serrated, lobed, basal leaves, ribbed stem, milky sap, twisted, beaded, braided, knotted, polka-dotted, etc, etc,). Anyway, not every mystery needs solving and it appears you will have plenty of "specimens" next year!

Good weekend to you and yours also.
:)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
37. WeatherWise
7:28 PM GMT on September 11, 2014
Hi Bee checking on the weather/tropical depression. How are you?

Re the puffs - the only thing that doesn't add up is there were no yellow flowers....went straight to puffs as they opened. I know there were no yellow flowers as they volunteered in flower pots from last year. I decided to wait and see what they were by letting them come to bloom. No blooms only puffs. So still a mystery plant. With all of those puffs I just bet I see a zillion of them next year. I will know to just go ahead and pull them up. I got rid of all of them yesterday.

Have a good weekend.
Member Since: February 28, 2003 Posts: 53 Comments: 2069
36. Barefootontherocks
6:21 PM GMT on September 11, 2014
...the southern edge of the ridge may lift to the north and allow a more poleward track. Where that poleward movement begins is still a guess at this point.
Yes. A guess. N turn early and not much time in the GOM. We'll see. Maybe my (again) wishful thoughts.

Where is everybody? Tf? aqua? Anyone?
(Hush now, or Bueller will show up)

Just a another pretty skyface, last eve


Have a good day, bl and 'eellians.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19227
35. beell
11:10 AM GMT on September 11, 2014
92L may not offer much to look at for the next 2-3 days. It has to get across Florida first. Broad cyclonic flow around the upper level low pressure center in the western Atlantic should provide enough northeasterly shear to limit organization. Conditions for development may start to improve on Sunday or Monday in the central Gulf of Mexico. Steering flow appears weak-leading to a slow moving system in the central gulf at the start of next week.

The narrow 700 mb steering ridge (my choice-YRMV) across the Gulf coast should keep 92L moving west-ish. GFS has been fairly consistent in displaying a soft southern periphery of the 700 mb ridge over the next few days. In other words, the southern edge of the ridge may lift to the north and allow a more poleward track. Where that poleward movement begins is still a guess at this point. The zonal westerlies to the north of the ridge seem to be the only thing keeping it from lifting. A tenuous hold in the model. The modeled mid-level ridge seems fairly solid so a stronger system would hold to a more westerly motion.

Worth keeping an eye on. For the next 2-3 days, a fairly limited chance of meaningful development.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
34. beell
10:38 AM GMT on September 11, 2014


Naval Research Laboratory-Sea Surface Heights
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
33. Barefootontherocks
3:02 PM GMT on September 10, 2014
Orangex by Africa changed to Lemonex.
Rain on the non-plain.
I hope the fall brings more rain than severe. That is a selfish wish.
Thanks for the comeback, bl.
Don't work too hard.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19227

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