Weather - September 1

By: beell , 1:19 AM GMT on September 01, 2014

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49. Barefootontherocks
7:24 PM GMT on September 18, 2014
47. beell
10:43 AM GMT on September 18, 2014
I'm just inside the "Rainfall greater than 3"" contour on the east side of Harris County.
:)




Click image to read WPC MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0388
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18734
48. beell
11:37 AM GMT on September 18, 2014
With top to bottom westerly flow, a squall line just ahead of the cold front may be the dominant convective mode/wind threat across the midwest. Probably end up with a slight risk over Illinois.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EASTWARD TO THE GREAT PLAINS AND NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO LOWER MICHIGAN. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND ALONG SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

...CNTRL PLAINS/MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...
A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE BASE OF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LATE AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/SUNDAY FOR CHICAGO IL AND ALPENA MI SHOW 0-6 SHEAR OF 45 TO 50 KT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT. IF MODERATE INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST...THEN A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM NE KS INTO SE IA...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN SPITE OF THIS...STRONGER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS COULD HELP COMPENSATE FOR THE WEAKNESS IN SHEAR...MAKING A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT POSSIBLE AS WELL.

..BROYLES.. 09/18/2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16727
47. beell
10:43 AM GMT on September 18, 2014
I'm just inside the "Rainfall greater than 3"" contour on the east side of Harris County.
:)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
455 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WET FCST TO CONTINUE TODAY BUT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF FLOOD- ING. GROUNDS WET FROM RAINS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL RAINS TODAY WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALREADY SEEING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING AS THE CONTINUED WAA FLOW COLLIDES WITH THE MORE S/SE MOVING DIS- TURBANCE COMING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX. ALSO SEEING HINTS OF YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRYING TO DIVE DOWN FROM NORTH TX. THESE SYS- TEMS COMBINED WITH THIS STILL VERY MOIST/TROPICAL AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA THRU THIS AFTN/EVE.

PER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE REST OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND FORECAST SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING BUT CONSENSUS NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS NEXT COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. PROGS APPEAR TO BE HAVING ISSUES WITH THE HANDLING OF THE REMNANTS OF ODILE AND MAY BE EXAGGERATING ITS IMPACT ON THE MAIN UPPER FLOW/PATTERN. AS SUCH WILL NOT BE CHANG- ING THE EXTENDED FCSTS (TOO MUCH) OF FROPA MON (ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDTIONS NEXT WEEK). 41




EWX Rain Totals-01:43AM Thursday through 05:23AM CDT Thursday


HGX Rain Totals-12:24AM Wednesday through 05:30AM CDT Thursday
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16727
46. 1900hurricane
3:30 AM GMT on September 18, 2014


MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0383
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1037 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

AREAS AFFECTED......CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 180235Z - 180735Z

SUMMARY...A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL FEED HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR TO CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX. AS THE
LOW LEVEL INFLOW OPPOSES A SLOW SOUTHEAST CELL MOVEMENT...FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX...AS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL FLOW FEEDS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 2.30 INCHES (WHICH IS ABOUT
TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) INTO THE REGION.
THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL OPPOSE WEAK CORFIDI VECTOR
(WHICH WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS)...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW MOVING OR EVEN BACK BUILDING CELLS.

THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD LEAD TO RAINFALL RATES AS
HIGH AS 2 INCHES AN HOUR (WHICH HAS ALREADY BEEN ESTIMATED BY THE
KHGX RADAR). THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT (INCLUDING
THE 23Z HRRR AND 18Z NAM CONEST) SUGGEST THAT LOCAL 2 TO 4 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH...BUT THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR FLASH FLOODING IS THROUGH ABOUT 05Z.
AFTER THAT TIME...THE INSTABILITY WANES...AND THE SSEO
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON 31609849 31599830 31559812 31489784 31409767
31309746 31269741 31069690 30889646 30799624
30769608 30679594 30459566 30209543 30029535
29849537 29649541 29529544 29239557 29079588
28959621 28929642 28949647 28949705 29119743
29519793 29929841 30449882 30739892 31049903
31259904 31399900 31519881 31579865
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
45. beell
11:31 AM GMT on September 17, 2014
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
446 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION... NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE GOING FCST OF CONTINUED RAINS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW. VERY HIGH PWS NOTED OVER THE REGION (~2.3") AND NOT EXPECTING THAT WE WILL NEED A LOT OF HEATING FOR PCPN DEVEL- OPMENT TO START AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN. AS THIS MOISTURE LINGERS INTO TOMORROW WE MAY HAVE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE TO DEAL WITH AS WELL. WILL LIKELY KEEP WITH AVG RAINFALL TOTALS FROM .5 TO 1`...ISO 3-4" TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE SOME BY FRI (ON INTO THE WEEKEND) WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THE UPPER TROF (ODILE REM- NANTS). HOWEVER WILL BE KEEPING ISO/SCT POPS IN FOR THIS PERIOD AS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS KEEPING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AOA MON...BUT WITH VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH. ECMWF KEEPING ITS FROPA A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN GFS ATTM...BUT GIVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT PROGS OF A FAIRLY DEEP N/NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR THIS TIME FRAME. 41
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16727
44. beell
10:51 AM GMT on September 17, 2014
Odile gets renamed by the SPC-"A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH". The mid-level remains of O has the unfortunate timing of leaving the desert southwest (if you're a severe weather fan) and trying to move through strong ridging across the Rockies and western plains states-with quite a bit of deamplification and weakening possible. Still strong enough to help pull the southern end of the cold front through the central plains and supply some moisture for beneficial rains across NM, the panhandle of TX, and on into KS.

The much stronger northern stream trough may bring some severe to northern Illinois on Saturday afternoon with frontal passage. So far, not looking too scary.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS AND MID MO VALLEYS AND MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD INTO THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY/DAY 4. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD INTO KS...NEB..IA AND WI DURING THE DAY...ALONG WHICH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS AMPLIFY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND MOVE IT EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY/DAY 5. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS HAVE A COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOCATED FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND A FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON MONDAY/DAY 6 WITH THE ECMWF AGAIN THE SLOWER SOLUTION. A COLD FRONT REACHES THE CAROLINAS AND GULF COAST STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WHICH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SHARPLY ON TUESDAY/DAY 7.

AT THIS POINT...THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT DURING THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING INSTABILITY AND TIMING REMAINS TOO HIGH TO WARRANT ADDING A SEVERE THREAT AREA.

..BROYLES.. 09/17/2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16727
43. beell
11:16 AM GMT on September 16, 2014
Hi, aqua!

I have. It's easier and less time-consuming to lurk through the weather this season than blogging about it. Slow does not bother me in the least anymore. If you're a lazy, burnt-out, blogger-slow is good!

I still scroll through Doc M's blog at least once a day. This is a much faster process than it used to be.
;-)

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16727
42. aquak9
2:25 PM GMT on September 15, 2014
good morning, good day, and good week to beell and beel'zeh'bubs

what a curiously slow Season™ we've had, I wonder if other folks have spent more time in the real world, than is normal for us- no waking at 2am for the next TWO, no living and breathing after being awake for 22 hours, just waiting for the NEXT dropsonde decode-

anyway, peace be with all of you- weather on
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26047
41. beell
11:28 AM GMT on September 15, 2014
xOdile has some modeled potential to promote a round of severe weather over the central plains towards the end of this week. GFS puts the mid-level vorticity out in front (ahead) of the incoming west coast shortwave trough and steals the show. A decently strong LLJ should be in place in response to this mid-level disturbance tracking northeast across the central plains.

A couple negatives for the tornado potential:

1. The meridonal nature of the wind profile that is common to a stacked system. A strong surface low with attendant warm front in tandem with a prefrontal surface trough should allow surface winds to back enough to allow adequate values of low level shear at the least.
2. Shortwave ridging ahead of xOdile. Perhaps pointing to a linear QLCS system along the frontal boundary.

An eventual merger with the northern stream energy over the upper midwest may extend the severe potential on into the upper Great Lakes on Saturday.

A weak cut-off low originating from the northern stream shortwave may remain over the desert southwest and lead to a continuation of unsettled weather/rainfall through the weekend.

Current guess would place the highest initial potential over N central Kansas and Nebraska on Friday afternoon. Probably not worth the effort to extend this guess past Friday at this point. Models don't seem to be giving much weight to xOdile's severe potential at this point and the SPC remains focused on the northern stream system-so all of the above could end up being a hype-cast.


09/15 06Z GFS 500 mb heights, winds, vorticity-valid Friday, 4PM CDT


09/15 00Z GFS 850 mb heights, winds, temp-valid Friday, 4PM CDT
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16727
40. beell
9:21 PM GMT on September 13, 2014
Afternoon, Linda!

Those bears don't seem to be too concerned. The window of opportunity for 92L to organize is much smaller than it looked a couple of days ago. It is moving faster than I thought. For now, upper level winds (shear) won't ease until this system is almost on the coast-and the upper level "calm" won't last long.

Enjoying the northerly breeze today. It was a bit stronger 6 yrs ago!

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16727
39. Thoughtsteader
3:37 PM GMT on September 12, 2014
I thought things were looking a little iffy this morning, so I checked things out and discovered a funnel cloud report from right between me and my Toyota dealership.

Then, I decided maybe it was time to check out the Gulf again. I'm glad I did. Guess I'd better go find a bear or two.

When bears hang out, waiting to watch...


Member Since: January 16, 2014 Posts: 35 Comments: 516
38. beell
10:55 AM GMT on September 12, 2014
Hi, bf.
Nice lookin' storm. Nice evening to be a horse.

I don't think 92L will turn too early. And it should make the southeast gulf with its well-defined wave structure intact. Zonal westerly flow across the gulf coast states continues eroding the narrow steering ridge and the northeasterly shear should drop off quite a bit on Tuesday(?). It could be heading my way during the early part of next week. The bears are watching. A literal interpretation of the models points toward no development.

I think aqua is growing a garden and Tf may be in love with Ms. Right...or maybe just Ms. Rightnow!

Anyway, TGIF to you.

Morning, WW.
Well, heck. I love a good mystery. I'll keep looking but may hit a dead end without enough info to enter a taxonomy reference. (opposite leaved, alternate leaves, serrated, lobed, basal leaves, ribbed stem, milky sap, twisted, beaded, braided, knotted, polka-dotted, etc, etc,). Anyway, not every mystery needs solving and it appears you will have plenty of "specimens" next year!

Good weekend to you and yours also.
:)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16727
37. WeatherWise
7:28 PM GMT on September 11, 2014
Hi Bee checking on the weather/tropical depression. How are you?

Re the puffs - the only thing that doesn't add up is there were no yellow flowers....went straight to puffs as they opened. I know there were no yellow flowers as they volunteered in flower pots from last year. I decided to wait and see what they were by letting them come to bloom. No blooms only puffs. So still a mystery plant. With all of those puffs I just bet I see a zillion of them next year. I will know to just go ahead and pull them up. I got rid of all of them yesterday.

Have a good weekend.
Member Since: February 28, 2003 Posts: 42 Comments: 1376
36. Barefootontherocks
6:21 PM GMT on September 11, 2014
...the southern edge of the ridge may lift to the north and allow a more poleward track. Where that poleward movement begins is still a guess at this point.
Yes. A guess. N turn early and not much time in the GOM. We'll see. Maybe my (again) wishful thoughts.

Where is everybody? Tf? aqua? Anyone?
(Hush now, or Bueller will show up)

Just a another pretty skyface, last eve


Have a good day, bl and 'eellians.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18734
35. beell
11:10 AM GMT on September 11, 2014
92L may not offer much to look at for the next 2-3 days. It has to get across Florida first. Broad cyclonic flow around the upper level low pressure center in the western Atlantic should provide enough northeasterly shear to limit organization. Conditions for development may start to improve on Sunday or Monday in the central Gulf of Mexico. Steering flow appears weak-leading to a slow moving system in the central gulf at the start of next week.

The narrow 700 mb steering ridge (my choice-YRMV) across the Gulf coast should keep 92L moving west-ish. GFS has been fairly consistent in displaying a soft southern periphery of the 700 mb ridge over the next few days. In other words, the southern edge of the ridge may lift to the north and allow a more poleward track. Where that poleward movement begins is still a guess at this point. The zonal westerlies to the north of the ridge seem to be the only thing keeping it from lifting. A tenuous hold in the model. The modeled mid-level ridge seems fairly solid so a stronger system would hold to a more westerly motion.

Worth keeping an eye on. For the next 2-3 days, a fairly limited chance of meaningful development.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16727
34. beell
10:38 AM GMT on September 11, 2014


Naval Research Laboratory-Sea Surface Heights
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16727
33. Barefootontherocks
3:02 PM GMT on September 10, 2014
Orangex by Africa changed to Lemonex.
Rain on the non-plain.
I hope the fall brings more rain than severe. That is a selfish wish.
Thanks for the comeback, bl.
Don't work too hard.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18734
32. beell
10:17 AM GMT on September 10, 2014
Morning, bf!

After all the uncertainty surrounding this " COMPLEX...SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL SCENARIO", it all boiled down to patch of clear sky near the warm front/cold front intersection! Who knew? Not I! There were some healthy rainfall amounts along the boundary at least.

I have and will have people in my face every day, all day over the next two weeks so it was unfortunate I did not get to watch much at all. That's my story and I'm stickin' to it.

Thanks for the timely posts here.
:)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16727
31. Barefootontherocks
9:24 PM GMT on September 09, 2014
ps. Click image to access complete watch info
Tornado watch - includes a moderate risk of EF2plus


Severe thunderstorm watch

Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18734
30. Barefootontherocks
8:56 PM GMT on September 09, 2014
Back to you, Groucho.
:)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18734
29. Barefootontherocks
8:55 PM GMT on September 09, 2014

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1696
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KS...SRN NEB...NWRN MO AND SWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 092006Z - 092200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN NEB AND PERHAPS FAR NRN KS...THEN INTO SWRN IA
AND NWRN MO. DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALL
BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM
FAR NRN KS INTO SERN NEB AND SWRN IA.
..WITH STRONG HEATING AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OCCURRING UPSTREAM ACROSS KS WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 90S. THE 18Z TOP SOUNDING CONFIRMED A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WITH AROUND 2500-3000 J/KG MUCAPE ACROSS THE AREA.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING CU FIELD NEAR THE HILL
CITY KS AREA AND EXTENDING NEWD INTO FAR S CNTRL NEB
. MEANWHILE...CU
HAS DISSIPATED NEAR THE MHK/TOP AREA...WITH WARM MIXED AIR SURGING N
WITH WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT APPEARING LESS LIKELY THERE.

INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN HILL CITY AND HASTING NEAR
THE SHARPER BAROCLINIC ZONE REINFORCED BY DAYTIME RAIN. HODOGRAPHS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY HEAR HASTINGS EXHIBIT STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH VWPS TEND TO OVERDO THE WIND
SPEEDS COMPARED TO THE NOW DEFUNCT WIND PROFILERS. NONETHELESS...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS...AND A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH STORMS TRAVELING NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WITH TIME...A
FORWARD-PROPAGATING COLD POOL IS LIKELY TO FORM WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 09/09/2014
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18734
28. Barefootontherocks
7:20 PM GMT on September 09, 2014
The 1130 SPC outlook stretched that slight risk area some...and sez

...CNTRL PLNS TO MID/UPR MS VLY TODAY/TNGT...
A COMPLEX...SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD OVER PARTS OF THE
CNTRL PLNS AND MID/UPR MS VLY THIS PERIOD...IN NE QUADRANT OF
DEVELOPING SFC LOW. WHILE THE POTENTIAL REMAINS ELEVATED FOR SVR
WEATHER...WITH A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT
ACTIVITY...COMPLICATING FACTORS KEEP FORECAST CONFIDENCE
COMPARATIVELY LOW.

As you mentioned..Iffy
whiffy, spiffy, Diffey, miffy, biffy, tiffy, gif-fy.
:)
Sorry. I'm not real inspired to write poetry.
At this moment., there's a lemonex by Fla and some Orangex near Africa.
Smafrica, bafrica. Out of here.
:)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18734
27. Barefootontherocks
2:45 PM GMT on September 09, 2014
This is tornado probabilities. Please click image for all outlook graphics.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT TUE SEP 09 2014

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL PLAINS TO
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD
INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...A FEW TORNADOES...AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL.

...SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL TO BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF DAY-1
PERIOD OVER CONUS. MID-UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
CROSSING LOWER MI IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS LOWER GREAT
LAKES...REACHING ERN NY AND NJ BY 12Z. MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY AND
SHORT-FUSED PROGS INDICATE ELONGATED SWATH OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY IN
MID-UPPER LEVELS FROM ERN WY WSWWD ACROSS NRN UT TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER SIERRAS. LEADING/SUBTLE LOBE SHOULD REACH ERN NEB/WRN IA
DURING 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME...WHILE PRIMARY TROUGH MOVES EWD TO
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS WILL FALL OVER NRN ROCKIES AND
NRN HIGH PLAINS AS SERIES OF SMALLER PERTURBATIONS AND VORTICITY
LOBES CONSOLIDATE INTO STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CANADIAN ROCKIES.

AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM NWRN ONT SWWD THROUGH
FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER BOUNDARY WATERS REGION OF MN/ONT...SWWD TO
ANOTHER LOW OVER CENTRAL/SWRN SD THEN INTO NERN WY/SRN MT.
MEANWHILE...INITIALLY WEAK LOW WAS EVIDENT OVER E-CENTRAL/SERN CO
JUST W OF KS BORDER...WITH COLLOCATED TROUGH/WARM-FRONTAL ZONE ENEWD
ACROSS EXTREME N-CENTRAL KS TO SERN NEB...BECOMING DIFFUSE EWD INTO
NRN MO. BAROCLINIC ZONE IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH
OUTFLOW/PRECIP-REINFORCED BOUNDARIES OVER ERN NEB...CENTRAL IA AND
NERN MO/WRN IL. BY 00Z...CO LOW SHOULD DEEPEN AND MOVE EWD TO
W-CENTRAL/NWRN KS...CLOSE TO BOUNDARY FROM MORNING PRECIP/CLOUDS.

SECOND LOW SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 00-06Z OVER SERN NEB AND DEEPEN
RAPIDLY WHILE ATTACHING TO COLD FRONT AND MOVING NEWD TOWARD
PROJECTED 12Z POSITION OVER NERN IA/SERN MN. SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT --
INITIALLY HELD UP BY OUTFLOWS AND DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONES FROM
ONGOING ACTIVITY -- SHOULD LIFT NWD ACROSS IA AND NRN IL E OF THAT
CYCLONE.

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM MIDDAY
INTO EVENING OVER WRN PARTS OF THIS REGION...SOME OF WHICH WILL MOVE
THROUGH AMBIENT CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE FAVORING SUPERCELLS WITH
DAMAGING GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE INVOF COLD FRONT. EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF ONE OR TWO
MESOSCALE COMPLEXES IS POSSIBLE OVER MIDDLE-ERN PORTIONS OF OUTLOOK
AREA...WITH TRANSITION TO PRIMARY WIND-DAMAGE THREAT.
ATTM...MESOSCALE COMPLICATIONS/UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE GREATER
PRECISION OR MAGNITUDE OF UNCONDITIONAL SVR PROBABILITIES...THOUGH
SUFFICIENT FOCUS FOR MORE CONCENTRATED/INTENSE SVR RISK MAY BECOME
APPARENT DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.


IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS SHOW BROAD SWATH OF
CLOUDS...PRECIP...EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS FROM CENTRAL
KS/NEB BORDER REGION WSWWD ACROSS ERN CO TO FRONT RANGE. THIS PLUME
HAS BEEN GROWING IN DEPTH...LATERAL EXTENT AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS IT SHIFTS EWD TO ENEWD OVER SRN NEB/NRN
KS...WHILE BACKBUILDING OVER CO. GIVEN THIS DEVELOPMENT...MOST
PLAUSIBLE -- BUT FAR FROM CERTAIN -- SVR-PRODUCING SCENARIO ATTM
INVOLVES A COMBINATION OF...
1. GRADUAL/IN-SITU FORMATION OF SFC-BASED TSTMS MIDDAY THROUGH
AFTERNOON WITHIN ONGOING PRECIP AREA AS IT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS SERN
NEB/NERN KS/NWRN MO REGION...INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STRONGLY
HEATED/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH WEAKER CINH...AND
2. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG TRAILING MESOBETA SCALE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM EARLY
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

AIR MASS OVER SERN NEB...NERN KS AND WRN IA WILL BE FAVORABLE AWAY
FROM PRECIP-COOLED AREAS...AS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION LOCALLY BOOSTS
MID-UPPER-60S F DEW POINTS ALREADY ANALYZED S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
PATCHES OF RELATIVELY ENHANCED SFC HEATING SHOULD OVERCOME MODEST
LAPSE RATES ALOFT ENOUGH TO HELP TO BOOST MLCAPE INTO 1500-2000 J/KG
RANGE...HIGHER TOWARD CENTRAL KS WHERE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER AND
VERTICAL MIXING OF BOUNDARY LAYER STRONGER. MOST FAVORABLE
CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER-SPACE OVERLAPS APPEARS TO BE OVER SERN
NEB...SWRN IA...NWRN MO AND PERHAPS NERN KS...
WHERE LARGE LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS ARE PROGGED BY LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDE AND 0-1 KM SRH
200-300 J/KG MAY DEVELOP. ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE/SUSTAINED CELLS
MOVING THROUGH THIS REGIME WILL POSE RISK OF TORNADOES...BUT
COVERAGE AND MODE STILL APPEAR TOO UNCERTAIN TO BUMP TORNADO
PROBABILITIES UP MORE THAN ONE BIN ATTM.


MCS EVOLUTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IS MOST PROBABLE DOWNSHEAR
FROM SERN NEB/NWRN MO REGIME AND NEAR OR E OF DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE.
LATTER POTENTIAL WOULD BE KEEPING PACE WITH NEWD WARM-SECTOR
EXPANSION AND AIRMASS RECOVERY AHEAD OF AFTN CONVECTION...SHIFTING
TOWARD AND ACROSS MID/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION.

..EDWARDS/LEITMAN.. 09/09/2014
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18734
26. beell
12:17 AM GMT on September 09, 2014
Not sure if I agree on much low-level CAPE ADDED: of the CAPE located in the low-levels.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
345 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A DEEP LOW OFF THE ROCKIES AND DIRECTLY THROUGH IOWA TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. COMPARATIVELY...THE 12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN THAT IT IS SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODEL RUNS WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW. MAGNITUDE- WISE...THE NAM IS IN THE BALL PARK WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND QPF. SO WILL DISCARD IT FOR TIMING...BUT WILL KEEP IT FOR CONVECTIVE PARAMETER PURPOSES. MODELS SHOW PWAT VALUES AT AN IMPRESSIVE 2 TO 3 STD DEV...HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL...SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. MOST CAPE LOCATED IN MID TO LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOS. SOUNDING PROFILES SUCH AS THIS LEAN TOWARDS WEAK UPDRAFTS AND A REDUCED HAIL THREAT. TORNADO THREAT...HOWEVER...WORTH WATCHING. 0- 1KM HELICITY IS BASICALLY OFF THE CHARTS. O-6KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES IN THE 50KT TO 70 KT RANGE WHICH IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT. ADDITIONALLY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH PURE DIVERGENCE AT H250 FROM 00Z WED THROUGH 06Z WED...WHICH WILL DEFINITELY SUPPORT LIFT. ALL OF THIS SETTING UP FOR A LOW CAPE...HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO SEVERE THREAT...HYDRO WILL LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR ISSUE...ESPECIALLY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IMPRESSIVE SO AM EXPECTING HIGH EFFICIENCY IN RAINFALL PRODUCTION. RACCOON AND DES MOINES RIVER BASINS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16727
25. beell
11:41 AM GMT on September 08, 2014
Both the NAM and GFS delay the appearance of the surface low and an increase in the LLJ into the risk area until well after the column saturates-this may temper the tornado threat. But...how do you handle 60 knots of 0-6 km shear and strongly curved hodographs (forecast helicity values AOA 600-900 m2/s2) with a saturated column? Wet microbursts and damaging winds seems to be a given. Flash flooding may also be possible across Iowa. Don't recall ever watching this type of set-up before. Should be interesting, as we say.


(click image for all 06Z Day 2 Outlook graphics)

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT MON SEP 08 2014

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION...NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...A FEW TORNADOES...AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL.

...SYNOPSIS...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE STRONGER POLAR WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS ONE SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACCELERATES EAST OF HUDSON BAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE WITHIN BROADER-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING DIGGING SLOWLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS LATTER FEATURE...A SIGNIFICANT UPPER JET... EMERGING FROM THE PACIFIC...IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING EAST NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF REMNANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES.

WITHIN THE STRONGER SUBTROPICAL STREAM...ONE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...THEN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT...AS AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT LEAST PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE PERTURBATIONS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. AT THE SURFACE...IT STILL APPEARS MOST PROBABLE THAT THIS WILL COMMENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE EVENING...BEFORE PROCEEDING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW...WHERE MOISTURE CONTENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SEASONABLY HIGH VALUES.

GIVEN THE INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND DESTABILIZATION...A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. OTHERWISE...THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO LOWER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...THOUGH WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE. THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY ALSO LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...MAINLY NEAR OR JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

...CNTRL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS INCREASING FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A NUMBER OF UNCERTAINTIES LINGER WHICH WILL TEMPER THE PROBABILISTIC FORECAST...AND PRECLUDE A HIGHER CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK AND THE INCLUSION OF 10 PERCENT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES...AT LEAST FOR NOW. DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS CONTINUE CONCERNING THE TIMING OF MORE RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ITS TRACK...WHICH COULD HAVE AN APPRECIABLE IMPACT ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. FURTHERMORE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT CONSIDERABLE HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD UPPER IMPULSE WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. WHILE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES MAY BE INITIALLY FAIRLY STEEP ACROSS THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTENING AND SATURATION FROM UPPER INTO MID-LEVELS PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF EXPECTED VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT. AND IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHAT...IF ANY...IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE.

STILL...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO AROUND 70F /ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES/...BENEATH REMNANT STEEP LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...SIZABLE MIXED-LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST...BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME.

VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ALREADY BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS BY THE TIME THIS OCCURS...BEFORE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING /TO AT LEAST 40-50 KT AT 850 MB/ CONTRIBUTES TO THE EVOLUTION OF SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PROBABLY WILL SUPPORT A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN STORMS...AND THE UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH OF AN ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...INITIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA...BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD. HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS MAY IMPACT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHICH SHOULD BE PRESENT GIVEN THE SIZE OF THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN THE PRESENT OF HIGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT/HUMIDITY.

A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY LINGERING DISCRETE STORMS EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS THAT POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME THE MORE PREDOMINANT SEVERE THREAT...AS HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING AND THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM INCREASE WITH THE DEVELOPING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

..KERR.. 09/08/2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16727
24. beell
6:24 PM GMT on September 07, 2014
Hey, WW!

First guess would be sowthistle (Sonchus oleraceus) although the color of the stem does not appear to be "bluish-green". A look at the leaves/stem and the base of the plant may narrow down the choices.

"The leaves with very prickly margins that initially develop as a basal rosette and then occur alternately along the flowering stem, the bluish-green color of the leaves, and the yellow flowers with a 'puff-ball' seedhead are all characteristics that help in the identification of annual sowthistle. Spiny Sowthistle (Sonchus asper) is very similar in appearance, however this species has rounded lobes that clasp the stem whereas annual sowthistle has distinctly pointed lobes. Also, the leaf margins of spiny sowthistle are much more spiny or prickly than those of annual sowthistle. Both of the sowthistles can be distinguished from 'true' thistles by the milky sap they emit when broken. The sowthistles might also be confused with Prickly Lettuce (Lactuca serriola), however the midvein on the leaf undersides of this weed has distinct spines or prickles, whereas those of the sowthistles do not."

Virginia Tech Weed Identification Guide

Supposedly, when the "globe" of seeds on a dandelion is full and open-a sign of fair weather. When they are closed up tight like an umbrella, rain. Perhaps your weed has a similar ability to issue a forecast?
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16727
23. WeatherWise
4:51 PM GMT on September 07, 2014
Hi Bee! Seems like the weather is all over the place. We are getting a break from the high temps today - much cooler daytime temps with a nice breeze. I had these volunteer plants to come up in a couple of flower pots (WEEDS) I was determined to see them through to a bloom. Seems they are not really a bloom but a cottony puff. I am sure someone on WU will identify them for me. They just puffed open today - With the breeze blowing them about I might have a zillion next year NOT in pots. Probably time to cut them down.

Member Since: February 28, 2003 Posts: 42 Comments: 1376
22. beell
3:35 PM GMT on September 07, 2014

(click image for all 0730Z Day 3 Outlook graphics)

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SUN SEP 07 2014

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONGER POLAR WESTERLIES STILL APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS ONE SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION PROGRESSES EAST OF HUDSON BAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE WITHIN BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LATTER FEATURE...AN UPPER JET STREAK EMERGING FROM THE PACIFIC...WITH A NUMBER OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING EAST NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

IN RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG A SOUTHWARD SURGING COLD FRONT. AT THE SURFACE...THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO COMMENCE ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT. THIS IS FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS TO SEASONABLY STRONG LEVELS /40-50 KT/ WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME CHARACTERIZED BY SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.

WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIKELY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST REGION...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

...MID MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AS DESCRIBED ABOVE APPEARS TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THAN IS CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC GRAPHICS. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING A NUMBER OF FACTORS WHICH COULD IMPACT THE EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THIS INCLUDES THAT TIMING OF MORE RAPID SURFACE LOW DEEPENING...AND STRENGTHENING OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WITHIN ITS WARM SECTOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER MAY STILL BE MODESTLY STEEP INITIALLY...SUPPORTIVE OF SIZABLE MIXED LAYER CAPE WITH INSOLATION...MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT CONSIDERABLE HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD RESTRICT SURFACE HEATING.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALSO REMAINS UNCLEAR. WITH SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY SUPPORT THE RAPID EVOLUTION OF A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THAT A REMNANT CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY...NEAR/EAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA...COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED TORNADIC POTENTIAL...OR THE EVOLUTION OF MORE SUBSTANTIVE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...AS CONVECTION PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD/EASTWARD ACROSS AND ALONG IT...TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

..KERR.. 09/07/2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16727
21. beell
2:27 PM GMT on September 07, 2014


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT SUN SEP 07 2014

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
WITHIN THE POLAR WESTERLIES...MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT EVOLVING CLOSED LOW/TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE COMING WORK WEEK...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEKEND. STRONG CYCLOGENESIS PRECEDING THIS FEATURE STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE MOST SUBSTANTIVE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.

LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT...IN THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ONE OR TWO FORWARD/EASTWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTERS OF STORMS. HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING AND DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG/STRONGLY SHEARED LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /ON THE ORDER OF 40-50+ KT/ COULD SUPPORT THE RISK FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WINDS CURRENTLY APPEAR THE PRIMARY HAZARD...A FEW TORNADOES MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...SIZABLE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES...CONCERNING UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS IN THE WESTERLIES...LIMITS THE ABILITY TO ASCERTAIN ANY SUBSEQUENT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

..KERR.. 09/07/2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16727
20. beell
2:36 AM GMT on September 07, 2014
Quoting 17. aquak9:

mmmmm....weather....

tasty stough


Hi, doggie!
I never noticed you blogged with a lisp

Used to know a girl name Ilene with the same problem-also, one leg shorter than the other. She walked with a list...(to starboard).

Say hey to Rainman!

Hi, bf.
Pretty warm lower troposphere in the 4-8 day risk area-with over 2" PW's in the models. All that translates into the poor lapse rates mentioned by the SPC and almost saturated soundings. 0-6km shear is looking mighty strong. We'll see!

Some popcorn showers here and there the last couple days. Just none of them right here!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16727
19. Barefootontherocks
4:21 PM GMT on September 06, 2014
16. beell
Saw day 4-8 yesterday and wondered how it'd shake out.
Maybe soon we will be able to say 'tis the second season.

Have a good one!
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18734
18. Barefootontherocks
4:15 PM GMT on September 06, 2014
"Blessed are the cracked, for they shall let in the light."
- Groucho Marx


Haha. Perfect.
:)!

Good morning, bl and 'eellians.
Woke up to blessed rain. Looks like rain will continue into this eve.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18734
17. aquak9
2:33 PM GMT on September 06, 2014
mmmmm....weather....

tasty stough
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26047
16. beell
2:19 PM GMT on September 06, 2014


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT SAT SEP 06 2014

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION... WHILE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING REMAINS PROMINENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...WHICH WILL LIKELY DIP SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. ON THE SOUTHERN THROUGH EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY PROBABLE THAT AN IMPULSE...EMERGING FROM UPPER TROUGHING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY THIS TIME MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...THE RETURN OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT SEEMS LIKELY AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MODEST CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY. THIS...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS TO SEASONABLY STRONG LEVELS...SUGGESTS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...WHICH COULD INCLUDE SUPERCELLS AND THE EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE SIGNAL EVIDENT IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...CONFIDENCE IS SUFFICIENT TO DELINEATE A SEVERE RISK AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR AT LEAST POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.

..KERR.. 09/06/2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16727
15. beell
10:50 AM GMT on September 05, 2014
Morning, aqua,
Sunday's thoughts about rain for NE FL was scheduled for today-so we'll see. That "forecast" is already a bit off in that any surface feature/surface trough associated with the mid-level inverted trough has eased up towards the GA coast and not west across the Florida peninsula and into the gulf.

and

I saw what you did there, bf. And I must say...you did it extremely well.
:)!


“Blessed are the cracked, for they shall let in the light.”
― Groucho Marx
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16727
14. aquak9
10:42 PM GMT on September 04, 2014
the funny- it HURTS-
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26047
13. Barefootontherocks
5:58 PM GMT on September 04, 2014
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18734
12. aquak9
1:38 PM GMT on September 04, 2014
It's sneezing a little spittle of rain here, beell. Thank you for whatever influence you had. Increasing chances for something to form offa the Carolinas? And...sigh....

I see what you did there.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26047
11. beell
11:25 AM GMT on September 04, 2014
Calling attention to enhanced curvature displayed by a pair of of well-rounded features from GFS Fantasy Land this morning.


09/04 06Z GFS 850 mb vorticity @ 240 hrs
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16727
10. beell
10:40 AM GMT on September 03, 2014

(click image for all 12Z Day 1 graphics)

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WNWWD TO ND...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NORTH DAKOTA AND PART OF SOUTH DAKOTA...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TORNADO THREAT AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHILE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ACROSS THE REST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE NRN ROCKIES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REACHING WRN ND BY 12Z THURSDAY...WITH A TRAILING POSITIVELY-ORIENTED TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...A MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH WY PER WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL TRACK EWD AMIDST THE HEIGHT RISES REACHING CENTRAL MN BY 04/00Z.

AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE...ATTENDANT TO THE NRN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WILL TRACK EWD FROM CENTRAL MT THROUGH ND...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATING EAST OVER THE NRN PLAINS AFTER 04/00Z. FARTHER E/SE...A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NNEWD FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY TODAY...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL-SERN ND THROUGH CENTRAL MN TO NRN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/ ACROSS PARTS OF ERN SD...SWRN MN AND NWRN IA DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WAA WELL N OF THE WARM FRONT...AND ALONG THE LEADING EXTENT OF AN EXPANDING EML ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS CONVECTION MAY BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MN WITH A MARGINAL HAIL RISK ON THE FRINGE OF LARGER BUOYANCY. GIVEN THE OCCURRENCE OF THIS ACTIVITY...A PRONOUNCED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CORRIDOR COULD DEVELOP...POTENTIALLY INVOF OF THE WARM FRONTAL POSITION INTO CENTRAL MN BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG.

DESPITE THE WEAK 500-MB HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA AND ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE WY PERTURBATION SHOULD FOSTER SUFFICIENT ASCENT FOR NEW STORM INITIATION DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE EML/CAPPING INVERSION. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO 45-55 KT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MN/WI PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. A STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ NOSING INTO CENTRAL MN AND WRN/NWRN WI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RESULT IN ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS /0-3 KM SRH OF 250-300 M2 PER S2/ FOR A TORNADO THREAT THAT COULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST WITH STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO ROOT INTO THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE WARM FRONT...WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS GREATER THREAT WOULD EXTEND FROM WEST CENTRAL WI THROUGH THE SRN TWIN CITIES METRO TO WEST CENTRAL MN. IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO THREAT...LARGE HAIL /SOME EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER/ AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR PROBABLE. THE SRN EXTENT AND OVERALL AMPLITUDE OF THE RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE MODULATED BY STRONGER CAPPING.

...ND/NRN AND ERN SD...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT SHOULD BE COMPARATIVELY SLOWER TO RETURN RELATIVE TO MN. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ROBUST IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE NRN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCELERATING COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW INITIAL STORMS TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE MT/ND BORDER WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS EVENING AS IT SPREADS EWD INTO INCREASINGLY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/STRONGER INSTABILITY. SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE MN BORDER.

...ERN AL/GA/SC/NC/SRN VA...
STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1.75-2 INCHES/ WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MAINLY PULSE-TYPE STORMS.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16727
9. beell
10:15 AM GMT on September 02, 2014
You know you're a weather geek when...lol

Always appreciate the time change back to CST in our part of the world. A nice 6 hr offset from UTC that makes the higher math skills required to convert to model update times-a breeze!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16727
8. 1900hurricane
11:52 PM GMT on September 01, 2014
Quoting 2. beell:

you don't do da Zulu like i do?
:-]



Ha, I actually have my phone set to Zulu Time. :P
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
7. beell
8:14 PM GMT on September 01, 2014

click image for Mesoscale Discussion


Current Vis
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16727
6. beell
8:04 PM GMT on September 01, 2014
I don't see much for NE FL either, aqua. Still watching for conditional tropical development in the eastern gulf this week as a wiggle in the ridge tied to the TUTT cell currently over the southern Bahamas drifts west. This may bring you a bit more organized rain after Thursday as you ease into the southeast flow on the east side of the inverted trough. Looks better for southern Florida gardeners.

Then we blob watch in the GOM to see if something can coalesce from such meager beginnings. This is the same synoptic that played a role in the development of 98L.


09/01 12Z GFS 700 mb heights, winds, rh @ 66 hrs

Quoting 5. WeatherWise:

Hi Bee! Just checking out your weather blog - doing a bit of blog hopping! Have a great day and come over for a visit if you have a bit of free time. I am fairly new to blogging and afraid not a traditional blogger and easily get off topic! Have a wonderful day!


Irreverence and off-topic are welcome here, WW! I did pay a quick visit to your current Danville, VA blog (and wiki). From the Dan River which runs through Danville to the Dan Daniels Memorial park-located in Danville, of course...it seems like a Dan fine place to live. Thanks for the visit, the intro, and the invite!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16727
5. WeatherWise
5:52 PM GMT on September 01, 2014
Hi Bee! Just checking out your weather blog - doing a bit of blog hopping! Have a great day and come over for a visit if you have a bit of free time. I am fairly new to blogging and afraid not a traditional blogger and easily get off topic! Have a wonderful day!
Member Since: February 28, 2003 Posts: 42 Comments: 1376
4. aquak9
5:29 PM GMT on September 01, 2014
oh hai

I came by, looking for some rain. Do you have any rain? I need some rain.
My half-dozen eggplants are wilting, and I'm watering them every day. All the bunny-poo
and oak leaves are all dry and crumbly. We hit a heat index of 118º today, and I see no rain in the forecast.

I gotta start the winter garden here in the next 2 weeks.

Please. Anything you can do to help, would be greatly appreciated.

kthxbai
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26047
3. Astrometeor
4:05 AM GMT on September 01, 2014
Quoting 2. beell:

you don't do da Zulu like i do?
:-]




No, I'm 'Murican.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10329
2. beell
3:52 AM GMT on September 01, 2014
you don't do da Zulu like i do?
:-]

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16727
1. Astrometeor
2:48 AM GMT on September 01, 2014
Your blog title...it's not September 1 yet.

:0
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10329

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