Weather - August 1

By: beell , 10:54 AM GMT on August 01, 2014

Share this Blog
1
+

College of DuPage-Severe Weather & Flash Flood Warnings


click for discussion/larger images


(click image for NHC Home Page)

99L





(click for larger images)




Current CIMSS 850 mb Relative Vorticity (left), and -6 hrs (right)

(click for larger images)



Tropical Surface Analysis (Current, -12 hrs)

(click larger image-page refresh required for current images)

NWS Regional Radar
click for NWS regional radar page, click area of interest for nearest NWS WFO Doppler Radar


Current WPC Surface Analysis
click to zoom


Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
mouse-over for product title, click for full product






UNISYS Water Vapor / Enhanced Infrared
(click for full image)


WPC 24, 48, 60-HR Forecast of Fronts/Pressure/Weather
click to enlarge


WPC Day 1-3 24HR QPF
click to enlarge


SPC Current Mesoanalysis and Short Range Ensemble Forecast Pages
(click graphic for main pages)
SPC Meso Pages SREF Model Pages

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 127 - 77

Page: 1 | 2 | 3Blog Index

127. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:19 AM GMT on September 01, 2014
beell has created a new entry.
126. beell
7:27 PM GMT on August 31, 2014


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1645
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...KS...NE...IA...MN...SD...MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 311920Z - 312045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...HIGH WINDS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO EXPECTED INCREASE ACROSS ERN NEB/NRN KS/WRN IA AND SRN MN INTO THIS EVENING. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS SOME OF THESE AREAS IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 40-50KT MID-LEVEL WIND MAX SPREADING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL ACT TO ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM WRN MN TO NRN KS. A WARM AND SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CORRIDOR OF STRONG INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES GENERALLY AOA 2000 J/KG. ISOLATED ONGOING CONVECTION...FROM WRN IA TO SRN MN...APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEADING LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE STRONGER TROUGH. WHILE SOME OF THESE ELEVATED STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL GIVEN ANTECEDENT RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE GREATER SEVERE WEATHER RISK SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION...ACROSS ERN NEB AND NRN KS...OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG INHIBITION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES COINCIDENT WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THROUGH EVENING. IF MORE DISCRETE STORMS INITIATE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...PERHAPS NEAR REMNANT OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION OVER IA/MN...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND REDUCED LCL HEIGHTS IN THESE AREAS COULD SUPPORT A GREATER TORNADO RISK...PROBABLY WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF STORM INITIATION.

EVOLVING MCS/SQUALL LINE OVER ERN NEB/NRN KS WILL MOST LIKELY CROSS INTO WRN IA...AND EXTREME NWRN MO...DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ANY TORNADO RISK SHOULD LESSEN AS THIS EVOLUTION OCCURS.

..CARBIN/HART.. 08/31/2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17039
125. beell
7:56 PM GMT on August 30, 2014

1730Z Day 2 Probabilistic Outlook

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...MID MO VALLEY AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM MINNESOTA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN IOWA...EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO KANSAS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...MID MO VALLEY AND UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...A SHARPLY DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON FROM NRN KS EXTENDING NEWD THROUGH ERN NEB INTO WRN IA AND SRN MN. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN THE MORNING IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED STORM INITIATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE INSTABILITY CORRIDOR FROM OMAHA NEB NNEWD TO MINNEAPOLIS MN FOR 00Z/MONDAY SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.0 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6K SHEAR AROUND 40 KT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES INTO THE 350 TO 400 M2/S2 RANGE SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR LINEAR ORGANIZATION WHERE STORMS CAN MERGE TOGETHER. THIS WILL MAKE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
THE SRN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS WRN KS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F WHICH SHOULD ENABLE MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT AS THE CAP WEAKENS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS JUST TO THE NORTH THE SFC LOW AT SALINA KS FOR 00Z/MONDAY SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 35 KT. THIS ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.0 C/KM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 300 TO 350 M2/S2 SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS LINE SEGMENTS ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING. A SHARP CUTOFF IN THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST FROM CNTRL KS SWD INTO OK WHERE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS FORECAST.

..BROYLES.. 08/30/2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17039
124. beell
3:01 PM GMT on August 30, 2014
Forecast MDR zonal shear for the week ahead. Looks detrimental to anything above 10N.


06/30 06Z GFS 850 -250 mb zonal shear @ 48 hrs


06/30 06Z GFS 850 -250 mb zonal shear @ 72 hrs


06/30 06Z GFS 850 -250 mb zonal shear @ 96 hrs
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17039
123. beell
2:23 PM GMT on August 30, 2014

(click image for all Outlook graphics)

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST INTO KANSAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...UPPER MS VALLEY TO CNTRL PLAINS...

MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG TROUGH THAT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY MID DAY...THEN INTO THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY BY 01/12Z. WHILE THIS TROUGH IS MULTI-FACETED THE PRIMARY SPEED MAX...50KT+ AT 500MB...OF CONCERN IS FORECAST TO EJECT ACROSS CO INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITHIN STRONGLY DIFLUENT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW REGIME.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE NOSE OF LLJ ACROSS THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ROOTED AOA 850MB AND THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BEFORE THEY PROPAGATE INTO SRN MANITOBA. HOWEVER...GREATER SEVERE RISK WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...FORCING SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG FROM CNTRL MN...SWWD INTO KS. LATEST THINKING IS FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 21Z WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD INITIALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL KS MAY BE SOMEWHAT HIGH-BASED AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 90S. HOWEVER...UPDRAFTS THAT EVOLVE ACROSS NEB INTO MN WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER AND MULTIPLE HP SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BEFORE STORM MERGERS RESULT IN AN ELONGATED MCS-TYPE COMPLEX. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO BE NOTED. A FEW TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH EARLY DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. FRONTAL MCS SHOULD PROGRESS INTO THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

...ELSEWHERE...

VERY MOIST TROPICAL PLUME WILL ADVANCE INLAND ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD THEN ADVECT ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGION SUNDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN THIS TROPICAL PLUME CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WEAK BUOYANCY. FORECAST SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR ADEQUATE TO WARRANT MEANINGFUL SEVERE PROBS.

..DARROW.. 08/30/2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17039
122. beell
2:17 PM GMT on August 30, 2014
Quoting 121. aquak9:

From the JAX HWO product:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BEAST COVERAGE ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS.


Not only are the bears watching, now they will be covering my inland areas?


That's a classic, and a scary forecast as written! Thanks for sharon.
can i buy an "R"?

Did the forecaster fatfinger a "B" for an "L" or add the "S" & "A" with a bigger fatfinger?
LEAST
BEST

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17039
121. aquak9
1:36 PM GMT on August 30, 2014
From the JAX HWO product:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BEAST COVERAGE ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS.


Not only are the bears watching, now they will be covering my inland areas?
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 182 Comments: 26813
120. beell
1:59 AM GMT on August 30, 2014
Had a few thoughts earlier today that the relocation to the west with a slightly faster timetable might have some implication for the steering ridge to have less time to rebuild west in response to the trough and a shift in track farther up the Mexican coast a bit. Still a possibility.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17039
119. beell
4:10 PM GMT on August 29, 2014

RAP 15Z MSLP, winds

A couple of decent areas of surface convergence that may point to some decent rains this afternoon. I like the one over Texas better (of course)-w/a hint of a boundary.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17039
118. beell
3:53 PM GMT on August 29, 2014
Morning, aqua, bf, and Tf.
MIL is from S Louisiana. She don't got no shoes-so that option is out.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17039
117. beell
3:51 PM GMT on August 29, 2014

click for all Day 3 Outlook graphics

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST INTO KANSAS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS MAY BE OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...UPPER MS VALLEY TO CNTRL PLAINS...

SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODEST WSWLY FLOW FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE AS FAR SOUTH AS KANSAS...AND ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY DIFLUENT ALOFT WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE QUITE A FEW STORMS TO EVOLVE ALONG WIND SHIFT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS CINH WEAKENS.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF ND/NRN MN BUT THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE ELEVATED AND POSSIBLY POST-FRONTAL BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS MN...THEN PROGRESSIVELY SW ALONG THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS NEB INTO KS WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR INTO THE MID 90S. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY ULTIMATELY DEVELOP TOWARD EVENING WHEN SHEAR/LLJ INCREASES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH NEAR-FRONTAL CONVECTION. SEVERE THREAT COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS SHORT WAVE EJECTS TOWARD THE MID MO VALLEY.

..DARROW.. 08/29/2014
================================================= =============================

First organized severe threat in a while is on track to sweep across the central plains and into the midwest on Sunday afternoon ahead of a cold front. SPC should get a bit more aggressive in their outlook products tomorrow. Greatest tornado risk should center up over IA. Farther south, into KS the storms may be decidedly high-based. Better lapse rates over KS should promote a large hail/gusty outflow wind threat. An increase in the LLJ after dark will increase the threat of QLCS tornadoes all along the front-with the greatest risk still along the northern half of the frontal boundary.


08/29 09Z SREF 850 mb winds-valid 7PM CDT, Sunday


Unofficial Tornado Risk Map-Valid 4PM CDT, Sunday
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17039
116. Thunderfan
1:33 PM GMT on August 29, 2014
If it rains real heavy, you could use two shoes I suppose.
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 807
115. Barefootontherocks
12:49 PM GMT on August 29, 2014
IV.
:):):)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 161 Comments: 19486
114. aquak9
1:08 AM GMT on August 29, 2014
Poll Time!!

What should Beell use as a rain gauge?

a. A shoe

b. A coffee-can and a ruler

3. An approved COCORAHS Rain Gauge

IV. His MIL's shoe.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 182 Comments: 26813
113. beell
12:56 AM GMT on August 29, 2014
The gulf is open. I may have to get a bigger gauge-although this one is self-emptying.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17039
112. aquak9
11:49 PM GMT on August 28, 2014
I hope you get some rain! lots of rain!!

(too bad you can't MEASURE IT APPROPRIATELY)
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 182 Comments: 26813
111. beell
11:23 PM GMT on August 28, 2014
See previous post.

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
656 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DAYS 2 AND 3...

...GULF COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE DAY 2/DAY 3 PERIOD. EARLY ON DAY 2 THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN ADDITIONAL VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE 500 HPA RIDGE AND MOVING INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW A SIMILAR FEATURE...BUT THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN HOW THEY DEPICT THE LOWER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE RESPONDING. THE NAM -- AND TO A SOMEWHAT LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF -- BOTH DEPICT A CIRCULATION DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH ENHANCES RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE WEAKEST PIECE OF GUIDANCE WITH THIS FEATURES AND THUS DEPICTS THE LIGHTEST QPF AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION (WITH QPF AMOUNTS MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THAN THE NAM)...WITH ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE IN-HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE FORECAST ON DAY 2 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL GULF COAST. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE VERY DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT (PWAT VALUES OF 2.25 TO 2.5O INCHES)...THE TROPICAL ORIGIN OF THE SYSTEM...AND THE RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES...INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2 IN THIS AREA...AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES TO OVERCOME RELATIVELY HIGH FFG VALUES...
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17039
110. beell
4:59 PM GMT on August 28, 2014

08/28 12Z GFS 500 mb vorticity @ 36 hrs

98L hung up on the S TX coast this morning. GFS has been pretty consistent over the last 3 days in dragging a piece of mid-level energy away from 98L and sending it back N towards the TX/LA coast into the existing ridge weakness and ahead of the shortwave (see.89). A little stronger look on today's 12Z. Uncertain if the current surface low will come with it (I doubt it)-but it might have an opportunity to create a "new" low.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17039
109. beell
4:47 PM GMT on August 28, 2014
Hi, aqua,
Chore list is self-imposed. Easy to get things done since Mrs beell and kids have returned to school. And I get to spend some quality time with MIL...
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17039
108. aquak9
2:15 PM GMT on August 28, 2014
hi beeell y beelzebubs-

beell I am sorry you have a chore list. That makes me sad. I know you probably work as hard as I do, and chores should not be demanded. I hope this list is short, and self-imposed. I also hope that "eating barbeque" is part of the list.

The coolth, as hurricanecrab called it, the COOLTH is refreshing. I would LOVE us all to see a decent 8-10 weeks of autumn, and/or a mild, pleasant, open-windows sort of winter.

Tropical resurgence across the S, SW carib? yeah. All those trade winds goooshing back in, after Cristoball leaves. Little vorticies that won't sign a lease.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 182 Comments: 26813
107. beell
2:09 PM GMT on August 28, 2014
Detetable spin on the wave axis in the Caribbean AOA 15N, 77W.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17039
106. Thunderfan
7:17 PM GMT on August 27, 2014
Looks like 98L has the below 30 degree latitude curse going on. Apparently only storms north of 30 form the past couple of years. At least in this basin. Instead, we have a naked swirl. Shear and dry air is apparent. Boo Hiss...
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 807
105. beell
5:09 PM GMT on August 27, 2014
Not sure if we'll see a boundary that far south but shear may ease a bit this evening in the ebb flow ahead of the next trough. 98L will always have to contend with some mild westerly shear in tandem with dry air from the high deserts of Mexico.




Six days! The first one started off very nice.

Partly Cloudy
91°F
33°C
Humidity 49%
Wind Speed NE 12 mph

Barometer 30.01 in
Dewpoint 70°F (21°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 96°F (36°C)
Last Update on 27 Aug 11:53 am CDT

Current conditions at
Houston Intercontinental Airport (KIAH)
Lat: 29.97°N Lon: 95.35°W Elev: 95ft.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17039
104. Barefootontherocks
3:25 PM GMT on August 27, 2014
Wonder the effect of this mild cold front that's moving down, IF this GOM spin does not reach land before, uh, Friday. Even if it is still over water, maybe the spin will be too far south along the coast by Friday for the cold front to make any difference. Funny, the convection seems east of what circulation I can see. (Add: Duh. You mentioned SWerly shear.)

Gosh, bl. six days off.
You won't know what to do with yourself. Enjoy!
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 161 Comments: 19486
103. beell
1:57 PM GMT on August 27, 2014
Morning, Tf.
Late sleep here. First day of 3-days PTO, plus the weekend, plus the holiday and I'm looking at 6 days off here! Unfortunately, there is a chore list that goes with it.

98L it is! Not quite centered up over the big, beautiful upper ridge in the gulf so a bit of southwesterly shear over the disturbance at present. 30 knots at 200 mb from the Corpus morning sounding.

Drier easterly flow around the ridge centered over the OH Valley has messed with our rain chances here in Houston. Maybe a change today. Obviously, the lower half of the TX coast should do better thanks to 98L,


Lower dp air from the east.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17039
102. Thunderfan
12:30 PM GMT on August 27, 2014
There's a disturbance in the gulf. Looks like you may get a few raindrops eh?
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 807
101. beell
4:35 AM GMT on August 27, 2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17039
100. beell
2:36 AM GMT on August 27, 2014
Hi aqua and bf.

I assume ya'll are watching the BOC this weekend. Most likely rooted in a t-wave with its base in the monsoon trough. This should be the wave currently near 62W. Too soon to say if the tail of Cristobal (another trough mentioned this morning) in the central Caribbean will help focus a circulation.

The western gulf opens up a bit to to a tropical return flow this week as the Atlantic ridge noses in across the gulf. The western periphery of this steering ridge is never set in stone and small changes in its western edge can make the difference between the "weather" continuing on out of the basin to the west or a track to the northwest towards the Texas coast. GFS currently favors "westward ho".

And bf,

...strange, you did not seize the perfect opportunity to post your favorite scene from the film.

Maybe, but I did watch it 6 or 8 times this morning. A marvelous piece of cinematography.
:)

Northeasterly flow seems to have stabilized the airmass over SE TX today. Not a drop from the yellow x in the GOM.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17039
99. Barefootontherocks
2:22 PM GMT on August 26, 2014
Hi bl and 'eellians.
aqua, are you seeing what I am seeing? Only problem is you can't be sure when.

bl,
What you'd expect from Summer took a while to happen here. First 100 locally was maybe late July and not up there consistently till the past week. The below 32 winter high temps outnumber the over 100 summer highs still. Maybe catching a break here toward Thursday. Rain in the forecast. Maybe you're in for an Indian Summer with 100s in early September.
What we have here is a failure to commiserate!
LPL Funny in a couple senses. Funny haha, the line from Cool Hand Luke you parody. And funny strange, you did not seize the perfect opportunity to post your favorite scene from the film.
:)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 161 Comments: 19486
98. aquak9
1:52 PM GMT on August 26, 2014
okee-dokie, beeelll-
we'll see how next weekend, thru monday looks
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 182 Comments: 26813
97. beell
11:33 AM GMT on August 26, 2014
Morning, aqua,

A little too soon to invest much time in any of the Atlantic invests or BOC tickles but will keep the blog door open for now..

A left-over from Cristobal in the form of a trough extending across Cuba into the Caribbean showing up on the surface analysis this morning with a very weak attendant circulation at 850 mb on the GFS model. As Cristobal pulls away, the trough should detach and drift to the west where it may or may not mesh with the next tropical wave. I will give it a 6% chance of blob at the present time.


08/26 06Z TAFB Surface Analysis
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17039
96. beell
10:56 AM GMT on August 26, 2014
For any local folks that may cruise through.
By HGX standards, a very long forecast discussion. It's all about the rain-which is a good thing!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
444 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014


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

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SE TX FROM THE N GULF TODAY AND FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO STALL THIS FEATURE ALONG THE COAST OR JUST INLAND OF MIDDLE TX COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MEANS AN OVERALL WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL EXIST AND ONLY STRENGTHENED BY BROAD TROUGH NOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVING INTO THE PLAINS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE CUTOFF SHORTWAVE OR TUTT LOW WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS LATE FRI INTO SAT. AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS BUT THE RIDGE SEEMS TO BE STRETCHED OUT ALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES.

THE OTHER MAJOR INGREDIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IS MOISTURE. GOES SOUNDER PRECIP WATER PRODUCT SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE AXIS OR ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE RIVER COMING FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE N GULF. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL VARY IN ITS OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT FROM DAY TO DAY BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TIME FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 2.2 TO 2.4 INCHES. THIS MOISTURE PLUME REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THESE CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE ACHIEVABLE EVEN IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. IT LOOKS LIKE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST CHANCES BUT EVEN 30/40 POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND. MIN TEMPS MAY BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL ON ANY OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. THAT`S NOT TO SAY A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD NOT FORM INLAND WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. HOURLY RAIN RATES OF 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION SO ISO 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. LOOKING AT GRIDDED FFG AND NASA SPORT LIS DATA...IF ANYTHING MOST FLOOD PRONE AREAS WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 45 INTO E TX. AT THIS TIME ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED. OF COURSE URBAN AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE WILL ALWAYS BE AN ISSUE ONCE RAIN RATES APPROACH 2 INCHES AN HOUR. THE HARDEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS TRYING THE NARROW DOWN ANY ONE DAY THAT WILL HAVE A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME THE NEXT 4 DAYS HAVE THAT POTENTIAL.

39

&&
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17039
95. aquak9
4:13 AM GMT on August 26, 2014
Keep your blog open, beell. I do believe ya'll may have a weather thing here in the next few days.

Always double your pancake mix. Leftovers stay in the fridge for a few days, and besides, as hubby sez, there's never too many pancakes. But, not enough? yes- fearful indeed.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 182 Comments: 26813
94. beell
2:26 AM GMT on August 26, 2014
We did, once, I think. Maybe if you get really close to your display, it will look better!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17039
93. 1900hurricane
1:42 AM GMT on August 26, 2014
Can't we have a nice looking storm for once?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11753
92. beell
12:38 AM GMT on August 26, 2014
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
820 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

...CRISTOBAL BECOMES A HURRICANE...

I don't doubt that Cristobal is an honest hurricane but golly gee, with northwesterly shear still strong and some extremely dry air advecting in from the north/northwest toward the core, it ain't gonna be pretty. No better time to upgrade than now...



Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17039
91. beell
12:24 AM GMT on August 26, 2014
Thank you, Linda!

I spent quite a bit of time waiting to pull up previous forecast discussions for the snippet posted at .89. Tried once at work this afternoon and gave up. Same business at home. No issues getting to the HGX main page but everything else was agonizingly slow.

Latest posted status message

Last Update: Tue Aug 26 00:10:01 2014 GMT
NWS TOC Operational Status Message
Mon Aug 25 23:02:39 2014 GMT

NOXX01 KWBC 252257
TO - ALL CUSTOMERS
SUBJECT - POINT FORECAST ISSUES
.
NIDS CONTINUE TO WORK WITH AKAMAI TO BLOCK THE
TRAFFIC THAT IS THE PROBLEM. A CHANGE WAS MADE
TO THE AKAMI CONFIG FOR FORECAST.WEATHER.GOV, BUT
IT HAS NOT STOPPED THE BAD TRAFFIC YET. WE
CONTINUE TO WORK TO RESOLVE THIS ISSUE.
.
NIDS - KM

Possibly some dated information below (along with a healthy dose of CorpSpeak) :

NIDS
External users of radar data can receive products from doppler weather surveillance radars (WSR-88D) through the Next Generation Weather Radar NEXRAD) Information Dissemination Service (NIDS). Four commercial companies or NIDS providers are operating under agreements with the NWS to provide this service.


AKAMI (ADD: basically, NWS' cloud service provider.)
NOAA utilizes Akamai's market-leading services to optimize performance, reliability, and reach of its weather sites, www.noaa.gov and www.noaanews.noaa.gov

Cambridge, MA - September 19, 2003 - Akamai Technologies, Inc. (Nasdaq: AKAM), a provider of services that enable the world's leading enterprises and government agencies to extend and control their e-business infrastructure, today announced that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Nation's premier science and weather agency, has deployed the Akamai EdgeSuiteSM service to enable top performance and reliability of its feature news and climate information sites, and to maximize the online experience for its nationwide audience.


Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17039
90. Thoughtsteader
11:59 PM GMT on August 25, 2014
I wondered why I couldn't get a forecast from NWSHouston this afternoon. Here's the answer. They were taken down by an Android app!
Member Since: January 16, 2014 Posts: 42 Comments: 550
89. beell
11:32 PM GMT on August 25, 2014
Hopefully, our rain chances will increase over the next few days. Kind of a back burner issue lost amid the
noise of Cristobal. The boyz at Houston NWS have been giving daily mentions since at least Friday of what is
thought to be a remnant TUTT cell drifting west along the southern periphery of the ridge. Fairly common to
see a mid-level wiggle along the edge of the summertime ridge. So far, the feature looks weak enough to not create any problems.

An excerpt from Saturday's discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
402 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

...CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF PUSHES WEST TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SURGE OF FAIRLY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO SE TX LATE MON NITE WITH THE MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY...

Rain chances for SE TX may not be quite as optimistic today but they don't look bad!

The addition of an old frontal boundary across the central gulf in combination with the mid-level feature has
formed a weak surface wave on the boundary with an attendant uptick in interest.


08/25 RAP 500 mb heights, winds, temps @ 4PM CDT


08/25 18Z Surface Analysis

The 21Z analysis did not resolve the surface wave and a quick check of a few rig reports yields all NE winds across the area-so maybe not much going on at the surface yet.

At present, all features remain on the weak side as the mid-level feature drifts west with some mid-level turning evident off the Louisiana coast this afternoon. Widespread outflow boundaries indicate a dry environment combined with 20-30 knots of southerly shear. Daytime heating over land (Louisiana) is allowing some healthy convection.



The weak mid-level feature may hang up along the lower Texas coast until the approach of a short wave trough out of the southern or central Rockies on Thursday or Friday or outright dissipation. But yeah, ya'll know the drill.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17039
88. beell
11:20 PM GMT on August 25, 2014
Quoting 86. Thoughtsteader:

I did see some folks mentioning Humberto over on Doc Master's blog, in the course of getting all excited about 97L. But remember -- I'm old. I was thinking about Alicia. ;-)

And now for your report from the Bay. It's hot.


Alicia is a much better example in terms of synoptics. Born of a small scale low forming on a frontal boundary. I was getting older elsewhere in 1983 so I did forget.

Yup, Hot. Pre-Cristobal field work complete so I will ride the office chair this week. Hope you're plans to hit the road this fall are on track.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17039
87. beell
11:01 PM GMT on August 25, 2014

Quoting 85. Barefootontherocks:


:)

Click image for the source. Oklahoma mesonet ticker.


Hi, bf!
I need to pass by the Mesonet Ticker more often! Just a great collection of data served up daily. We have
fared a little better here with the temps. I'm not 100% certain but I believe the big airport here in H town
has yet to reach 100° Rare for the end of August. Given your return to "just another summer in OK", What
we have here is a failure to commiserate!

And I love the Oklahoma Mesonet motto:
"Measuring Oklahoma's weather conditions every 5 minutes since 1994."
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17039
86. Thoughtsteader
8:34 PM GMT on August 25, 2014
I did see some folks mentioning Humberto over on Doc Master's blog, in the course of getting all excited about 97L. But remember -- I'm old. I was thinking about Alicia. ;-)

And now for your report from the Bay. It's hot.
Member Since: January 16, 2014 Posts: 42 Comments: 550
85. Barefootontherocks
6:09 PM GMT on August 25, 2014

:)

Click image for the source. Oklahoma mesonet ticker.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 161 Comments: 19486
84. beell
3:19 PM GMT on August 25, 2014
Quoting 82. Thoughtsteader:

Saw that forecast discussion. Trough? Offshore? August? Hmmmmm... Worth watching, I'd think. Of course, nothing could just pop up in the Gulf and be onshore in three days. Right? Oh. Never mind.

Happy Monday!


Morning, Linda.

In the mid-levels and looking kinda weak-but would appreciate the rain it may bring.

Not certain, but TS 2008 Edouard may have been the last 3-day surprise. The "I" storm later that year kinda pushed this system onto the list of "Who?".

But who could forget Humberto?

Hi, doggie!
It was busy at work and kinda slow with the weather-except for that strain-with-a-name thing. Seemed like a good time for a blog break.

I could have used the pancakes the other night. Much to the amazement of all, I tried to cook pancakes for the family night before last. Followed the instructions to the letter. "Makes 12-18 pancakes". Got 4.5 pancakes. I ate 3 of them. More amazement...

"Well-fed and Afraid" here.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17039
83. aquak9
1:50 PM GMT on August 25, 2014
hi Beell- I came by here a coupla days ago, looked like the place was closed.

Hubby says Cristobal is like that bad reality TV show, "Naked and Afraid" -
-he also says he's gonna start his own TV show, with a camera trained on our sofa:

"Clothed and Well-Fed"

there's some leftover pancakes and bacon in the fridge, if ya'll want any-
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 182 Comments: 26813
82. Thoughtsteader
1:46 PM GMT on August 25, 2014
Saw that forecast discussion. Trough? Offshore? August? Hmmmmm... Worth watching, I'd think. Of course, nothing could just pop up in the Gulf and be onshore in three days. Right? Oh. Never mind.

Happy Monday!
Member Since: January 16, 2014 Posts: 42 Comments: 550
81. beell
11:28 AM GMT on August 25, 2014
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
414 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014


...AN INVERTED 500 MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME EASTERN LOUISIANA AND THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP WELL IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH SE TX TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY. BENIGN MOISTURE LEVELS THIS MORNING WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND PW VALUES WILL RISE FROM 1.5 INCHES THIS MORNING TO 2.15 INCHES BY TUES MORNING. MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO FOSTER A FEW SHRA/TSRA OVER MAINLY THE EXTREME EASTERN ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST. MOISTURE LEVELS AND INSTABILITY SEEM TO PEAK TUESDAY MORNING SO WILL CARRY HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME DRYING FOR LATER IN THE DAY. WHAT IS TROUBLING IS THE POSITION OF THE VORT LOBE WHICH BASICALLY STAYS JUST OFF THE COAST AND NEVER MOVES INLAND. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF THE RAIN COULD FOCUS JUST OFF THE COAST (AS ADVERTISED BY THE 4 KM WRF AND HI-RES ARW). THE ECMWF HAS INITIALIZED BEST AND HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT SO HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF SOLN. PW VALUES DRY OUT SIGNIFICANTLY ON WED AND FALL TO BETWEEN 1.3-1.5 INCHES AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW TREMENDOUS DRYING AT 700 MB. TRIMMED POPS BACK A BIT ON WED DUE TO LOWER MOISTURE LEVELS BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS OF AROUND 90 DEGREES ARE MORE THAN REACHABLE SO STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA...
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 146 Comments: 17039
80. Barefootontherocks
11:17 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
Of course we are interesting!

Pretty sure bl is having eye trouble and he can't see going to work. He went to the the beach but the beach was crowded so he drove west to somewhere around Ft. Stockton. Then he kept driving west and managed to get through El Paso traffic alive. In Arizona, though, he went into that mystery stop-shop, and he hasn't been seen since. Rumor has it he's been inside the mystery stop trying to count to eight (communicate) with a patch of tropical low pressure by singing that song made famous by Bonnie Raitt - "Let's give them something to talk about."
;)
Add:
link to YouTube of aforementioned music
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 161 Comments: 19486
79. Thunderfan
7:02 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
BF maybe we just aren't that interesting I guess? LPL.
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 807
78. Barefootontherocks
2:34 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
Wait! They roost on malls, so he's probably not hanging out with them.
;)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 161 Comments: 19486
77. Barefootontherocks
2:28 PM GMT on August 18, 2014
I don't know. We could ask bl but I think he flew away with the Purple Martins.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 161 Comments: 19486

Viewing: 127 - 77

Page: 1 | 2 | 3Blog Index

Top of Page

About beell

beell's Recent Photos

trampoline3.5
trampoline3
trampoline2
Trampoline1