Weather - July 1

By: beell , 10:46 AM GMT on July 01, 2014

Share this Blog
1
+

College of DuPage-Severe Weather & Flash Flood Warnings

93L


Current CIMSS 850 mb Relative Vorticity (left), and -6 hrs (right)



(click for larger images

ssd.noaa.gov/93L Tropical Floaters
nhc.noaa.gov

Current WPC Surface Analysis
click to zoom


Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
mouse-over for product title, click for full product






UNISYS Water Vapor / Enhanced Infrared
(click for full image)


WPC 24, 48, 60-HR Forecast of Fronts/Pressure/Weather
click to enlarge


WPC Day 1-3 24HR QPF
click to enlarge


SPC Current Mesoanalysis and Short Range Ensemble Forecast Pages
(click graphic for main pages)
SPC Meso Pages SREF Model Pages

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 224 - 174

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5Blog Index

224. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
10:54 AM GMT on August 01, 2014
beell has created a new entry.
223. aquak9
4:07 AM GMT on August 01, 2014
I WOULD'VE WON THE BET!!!

they named it by midnite thurday!!!

I shoulda bet him for a new carpet cleaner! (he would've bet for a slab of ribs)

I woulda won!!!

oh, hi dogs and me and bf's and tf's
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25849
222. Barefootontherocks
3:39 AM GMT on August 01, 2014
I suppose we could see a TS Bertha at some point if the NHC finds some TS winds somewhere and foregoes the requirement of deep convection around an LLC.

Two ifs make a right.


The HH data made a difference I guess. Rather, proximity to land in light of the HH data.

Still, yawny. Strange but yawny.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18554
221. beell
2:38 PM GMT on July 31, 2014
Morning, Tf.

Thanks!

I suppose we could see a TS Bertha at some point if the NHC finds some TS winds somewhere and foregoes the requirement of deep convection around an LLC. It looks like crap this morning and is fast becoming a non-AOI for me, lol.

It has been a struggle to attempt to predict the shear magnitude and direction for 93L here .Been wrong at almost every attempt so far but it may be getting a bit more straight-forward.

93L has been and is still embedded in lower tropospheric easterlies but is approaching the upper level westerly/southwesterly winds associated with the TUTT. Add in the dry air and 93L will probably suffer quite a bit under 30-40 knots of shear focused along the northern edge of the circulation-right where all the dry air is located.

The ULL induced weakness in the Atlantic ridge mentioned earlier in the week does not look to be much of a factor in steering and 93L's inability to gain vertical depth should keep it on a WNW track along the low level ridge.



Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16479
220. Thunderfan
10:56 AM GMT on July 31, 2014
Happy belated BL. I'm both a day late and a dollar short. Well, many dollars short...

93L southern half is showing off for us this morning. Maybe, it will be a Bertha yet. Models definitely trending out to fish land it seems.

EDIT - so does it normally take 5 minutes for a post to show up now?
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 791
219. Barefootontherocks
12:32 AM GMT on July 31, 2014
Oh, bl!
LMAOx10. Well, 8. Almost mistook it for a shitzoo face... Almost. Yes, they do look alike!
:)

(deja vous reference removed)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18554
218. beell
11:39 PM GMT on July 30, 2014
Hi, aqua. Not sure if we could squeeze another name on the LeslieCake!

Aw, look at those precious little doggies, bf. That is so sweet of you.

Kiss the little puppy, bf.
(they all look alike don't they)
:)

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16479
217. Barefootontherocks
6:48 PM GMT on July 30, 2014
A Shitzoo cake might work.

(image removed)

Or Shitzoo cupcakes.
(image removed)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18554
216. aquak9
4:55 PM GMT on July 30, 2014
(looks around for LeslieCake)

Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25849
215. beell
4:36 PM GMT on July 30, 2014
Ha, you found a way to work in "birthday" didn't you.
:))

Naked is for no reason at all. Nekkid is purpose-driven.

If I'm lucky today, I will accomplish both!


Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16479
214. Barefootontherocks
3:16 PM GMT on July 30, 2014
If one is wearing one's birthday suit is one naked or nekkid?
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18554
213. beell
2:00 PM GMT on July 30, 2014
With respect to a half-dressed tropical system with low level convergence and nothing on top, I would agree. In all other aspects of the assumption that being all dressed up with nowhere to go is better than being nekkid with nowhere to go...I would disagree.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16479
212. aquak9
1:28 PM GMT on July 30, 2014
All dressed up and no place to go.

I suppose that's better than runnin' around nekkid as a jailbird - -
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25849
211. beell
12:07 PM GMT on July 30, 2014
Meanwhile, in the low levels, convergence is adequate. All dressed up and no place to go.


CIMSS Lower Convergence-Valid 07/30 09Z
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16479
210. Thunderfan
11:52 AM GMT on July 30, 2014
Quoting beell:
Morning, Tf.
In their defense (TWC), there is not much to cover, lol. I will use the same excuse today!


I dunno - post 208 seems like good coverage to me. LOL.
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 791
209. beell
11:49 AM GMT on July 30, 2014
Morning, Tf.
In their defense (TWC), there is not much to cover, lol. I will use the same excuse today!

Time to harness up and pull the box of rocks around.
Later, folks.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16479
208. beell
11:41 AM GMT on July 30, 2014
Excellent upper divergence (outflow if you prefer) over 93L in its Glory Days (Day?) has mostly dissappeared in comparison to a couple of days ago and seems to have been replaced by large scale subsidence on the periphery of the system. Some of this could stem from typical subsidence along the southern edge of the TUTT to the north of 93L. This would be in addition to the SAL.


CIMSS Mid-Upper Level winds valid Monday, 07/28 09Z

Contrast that against this mornings interpretation:


CIMSS Mid-Upper Level winds valid Wednesday, 07/30 09Z


CIMSS Upper Divergence (upper convergence represented by the dashed lines). Valid 07/30 09Z

Subsidence translates to a lack of vertical instability and deep convection. A wedge of low instability air is shown knifing in on the west side of 93L (above) and may be cutting it of from ITCZ moisture on the west side as well.


07/30 00Z GFS 700 mb theta-e (a measure of instability). Valid today at 09Z

These conditions are likely to persist for another couple days. Some improvement may show up as 93L nears the islands.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16479
207. Thunderfan
11:36 AM GMT on July 30, 2014
93L looks pretty good on visible loop, but doesn't have good storm coverage - much like TWC. LOL. I crack myself up. LOL.

Seriously, if it gets into a more moist environment it could take off now. We shall see.
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 791
206. Barefootontherocks
3:55 PM GMT on July 29, 2014
Oh, boy. bl's off the grid.
Circle the wagons.

I hope there is a circle, aqua - a figurative circle or a real circle. The thought of a circle makes the plodding worthwhile.

Here's a link to the q6h Atlantic high seas forecast, being's there's not much else to read at NHC. 93L looks to be moving too fast for comfort and may face impending doom in the form of dry air from the north (add: moving into circ from the SW and W per Doc M's fig 1 this morning). Still, development probability seems high if we believe what NHC and Doc M wrote this a.m.

Have a good day!
:)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18554
205. aquak9
1:27 PM GMT on July 29, 2014
This summer has been a lot like '08 summer in OK, so I'm wishcasting it godspeed to the north Atlantic.

Cause we're using the same set of names as we did in '08. And that was the year me and hubby got married, on June 1. I realized that cause I hung one of those hurricane tracking charts from one of the local tv stations on my closet wall, as a reminder - -and the I looked a coupla days ago, and realized it was the same set of names again.

We've come full circle, bf.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25849
204. Thunderfan
11:25 AM GMT on July 29, 2014
Off grid - sounds nice.

93L looks worse this morning than yesterday morning. But models are pretty insistent. It would be best if it would just hurried up and strengthened.
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 791
203. beell
10:35 AM GMT on July 29, 2014
Off-grid today. Yes, there are a few places left in TX that are out of touch!

Have a nice day!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16479
202. beell
2:38 AM GMT on July 29, 2014
Hi, bf.
I think 93L will do better than that in a couple of days.

A new vocab word for the day-as seen on Rick Smith's twitter feed (NWS OUN Warning Coordination Meteorologist).



Much tired here.
'Nite!
:)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16479
201. Barefootontherocks
2:06 AM GMT on July 29, 2014
Yah, looking good. That's a pretty color. thought earlier today the trough seemed a little ahead of schedule, but not.

Just for good measure, 18Z HWRF at 42hrs has 93L a degree more north at same time frame and about the same strength winds. A 1004mb weakling.


This summer has been a lot like '08 summer in OK, so I'm wishcasting it godspeed to the north Atlantic.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18554
200. beell
12:38 AM GMT on July 29, 2014
Hiya, doggie and bf.
93L may be ahead of schedule. Probably a TD soon just by limited looks at development today. The sooner the better as far as land impacts go. I think all it would take is a Cat 1 to catch the northward tug offered by the deep layer trough/ULL previously mentioned.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16479
199. Barefootontherocks
5:47 PM GMT on July 28, 2014
Well, ha. Pretty sure we'll have a Bertha-day by the wee hours Wednesday.
:)

Hello, bl and 'ellians.
We got a hefty bear watch now.

Add:
Click image to go to Tropical Tidbits HWRF page

12Z July 28 HWRF at 0700 Wednesday July 30, 2014, MSLP and 10m wind kts
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18554
198. aquak9
5:19 PM GMT on July 28, 2014
Quoting 196. Thunderfan:

It definitely has the "look" of development. We shall see. Definitely perked my interest. I'm betting that hurricane by Thursday is a bit aggressive, but would not be surprised.

Oh! ok...I told hubby, "named by thursday midnite" and he said "no, probably just TD'd by thursday midnite" so I am curious as to who will be right.

He used to beat me BAD when it came to the weather. So I would be happy to win a coupla times.

Hi Beell!

Hi Beell-zeh-bubs!
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25849
197. beell
5:04 PM GMT on July 28, 2014
Today's 12Z GFS is pointing towards a sharply amplified, retrograding upper-level trough that cuts off an ULL over the central Atlantic and allows a storm of at least CAT 1 stength to find a weakness and exert some northward steering influence over the Thursday/Friday time frame.

A weaker system could miss the weakness.

It's uncertain how long this modeled weakness will remain. Perhaps long enough to get the system closer to becoming entrained in the westerlies. Perhaps not.

Some mid-level troughing (but not as much as previously modeled) still remains over the east coast at this time frame.


07/28 12Z GFS 200 mb heights @ 72 hrs


07/28 12Z GFS 500 mb heights, vorticity @ 90 hrs
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16479
196. Thunderfan
12:36 PM GMT on July 28, 2014
It definitely has the "look" of development. We shall see. Definitely perked my interest. I'm betting that hurricane by Thursday is a bit aggressive, but would not be surprised.
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 791
195. beell
12:23 PM GMT on July 28, 2014
Quoting 193. Thunderfan:

Well - I've been away a bit. 93L looking pretty healthy overall.


Bertha-ish!

Things look pretty rosy for steady intensification. Some moderate southerly shear (15-20 knots?) ahead of 93L for the next couple of days. Similar to TD02, 93L is embedded in moderately strong, deep layer easterly flow. This system should clip along at a decent pace (15 knots?) towards the west until at least Thursday. At that time, it should be a hurricane under no/low shear and would begin to round the SW corner of the mid-level Atlantic ridge. A weaker system would add uncertainty to the start of the recurve.

A nail-biter for the northern Lesser Antilles. GFS really has taken a "liking" to Antigua, Anguilla, and the British Virgin Islands.


Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16479
194. beell
12:20 PM GMT on July 28, 2014
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
642 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

TUE/WED THINK MAINLY 20/30 POPS WILL BE ON TRACK AGAIN AND COULD BE A BIT HIGH. THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY DOES NOT WEAKEN UNTIL WED SO COULD EXPECT HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES TUE/WED BUT STILL COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OUTFLOW FROM STORM COMPLEXES COULD EASILY MAINTAIN SOME FRONTAL CONTINUITY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE WET END OF THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS THUR INTO FRI. THIS SEEMS TO FORCE QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP OVER OK AND N TX. THIS INITIAL CONVECTIVELY INDUCED PRECIP DEVELOPS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BUT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER MCS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE E HALF OF TX FRI MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY PUSHES FARTHER INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP 30 POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT LACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO GO HIGHER WITH RAIN CHANCES SINCE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PERFORMING WELL WITH TRENDS IN THE RIDGE. PLUS QUITE A BIT OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ON MESOSCALE DETAILS WHICH CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE ROBUST WITH RAIN CHANCES HEADED INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE AREA. THE 500 MB RIDGE HAS ALSO SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENED TO NEAR 588 DM HEIGHTS WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL THINK THAT SINCE THE MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE...THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES TO THE START OF THE WEEK BUT LOOK FOR CHANCES TO INCREASE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16479
193. Thunderfan
11:35 AM GMT on July 28, 2014
Well - I've been away a bit. 93L looking pretty healthy overall.
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 791
192. beell
11:11 AM GMT on July 28, 2014
Strong upper divergence over and ahead of 93L. This large scale loss of mass in the upper levels should result in increasing surface convergence today and allow pressures to fall at the surface.


07/28 09Z CIMSS mid-upper level winds
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16479
191. beell
10:38 AM GMT on July 28, 2014

(click image for storm reports)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16479
190. beell
7:26 PM GMT on July 27, 2014

(click for discussion)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16479
189. beell
7:09 PM GMT on July 27, 2014
Second day in a row with the cancelled MDT risk, bf. One apparent difference today is some amplification of the mid-level trough (currently digging just a bit over northern KY and W VA.

May make the diference by providing some modest height falls. Eastern KY would be the place to watch for sure.



Active Tornado Watches and County Warnings
click graphic for Weather Watch details (page refresh for current warnings)

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16479
188. Barefootontherocks
6:10 PM GMT on July 27, 2014
The poem, seriously:
A pretty good reminder that, in spite of ourselves, the Creator knows what's up. Even an agnostic optimist might read the poem and see beauty in the beasties. The poet's words made me picture bugs glowing in dark forest. I see crepuscular rays, and, within the straight lines, a gazillion golden spots before my eyes.

SPC dropped the moderate risk area at 1130 outlook but still held concern for tornadoes : AT 15Z... THE PRIMARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING STORMS EXTENDS FROM WEST-CENTRAL KY TO SOUTH JKL. (? KJKL=Jackson, KY) THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. BOWING SEGMENTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF VA AND NORTHERN NC.

Have a good one.

Ps. If the Canadian islanders in the vid held a festival, I'd go to it!
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18554
187. Barefootontherocks
3:06 PM GMT on July 27, 2014
Oh, do write it, bl!
No risk of pointless and boring. Depending on your bent, you could call your story...

"Water World Cicadae" - sci fi fantasy

"Dolly Varden's Lunchmeat" - comedic adventure

"Ephemeroptera Love" - short but satisfying romance

Today is July 27th.
:)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18554
186. beell
1:41 PM GMT on July 27, 2014
Hi Number. Happy you dropped by!

Now, If I could just build a couple thousand words around that notion I might have something!
Thanks for adding some validation to the idea.
:)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16479
185. NumberWise
2:53 AM GMT on July 27, 2014
beell - This is wonderful: The poet's ability to provide a gilded and graceful meaning to this annual mess is perhaps the real wonder of our existence!
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1699
184. beell
10:11 PM GMT on July 26, 2014
Afternoon, Tf, Aug.

Clearly, the poets and the rest of the world are at odds when it comes to the mayfly. After spending a year or three underwater, they emerge en masse to spend from two minutes to several days as "adults" (species dependent). Mating on the wing and then dying.


Mayflies
~ Richard Wilbur

In somber forest, when the sun was low,
I saw from unseen pools a mist of flies,
In their quadrillions rise,
And animate a ragged patch of glow,
With sudden glittering - as when a crowd
Of stars appear,
Through a brief gap in black and driven cloud
One arc of their great round-dance showing clear.

It was no muddled swarm I witnessed, for
In entrechats each fluttering insect there
Rose two steep yards in air,
Then slowly floated down to climb once more,
So that they all composed a manifold
And figured scene,
And seemed the weavers of some cloth of gold,
Or the fine pistons of some bright machine.

Watching those lifelong dancers of a day
As night closed in, I felt myself alone
In a life too much my own,
More mortal in my separateness than they -
Unless, I thought, I had been called to be
Not fly or star
But one whose task is joyfully to see
How fair the fiats of the caller are.




The poet's ability to provide a gilded and graceful meaning to this annual mess is perhaps the real wonder of our existence!

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16479
183. beell
4:50 PM GMT on July 26, 2014

click for all 1630Z Day 1 graphics

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO...ACROSS CENTRAL IL...INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS...SOME ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. THE MOST CONCENTRATED RISK AREA SHOULD BE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA...WHERE ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS COULD PRODUCE SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE DAMAGING WIND RISK COULD REACH AS FAR AS SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT.

...POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO AFFECT PARTS OF MID/UPPER MS VALLEY INTO OH VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THE PRIMARY BAND OF WESTERLIES EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER SASK/MANITOBA WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD...WHILE SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVEL ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE SEVERAL POTENTIAL AREAS OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY...AND HIGHER-THAN-USUAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHICH CLUSTER WILL BE OF GREATEST RISK.

...SD/NEB/WESTERN IA THIS AFTERNOON...
AN INTENSE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAS FORMED THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST SD. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NEB AND WESTERN IA. THE STORMS HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY SIGNS OF WEAKENING...BUT IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN IF THIS CLUSTER IS THE START OF A LARGER LONG-LIVED BOW ECHO EVENT...OR IF THE OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO UPSCALE GROWTH LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

...MO/IL THIS AFTERNOON...
A WEAK REMNANT MCV IS NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NORTHEAST KS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER WESTERN MO. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS LEND LESSENED CONFIDENCE THAT THIS GROUP OF CONVECTION WILL BECOME AN ORGANIZED SEVERE-PRODUCING SYSTEM. HOWEVER...AMPLE MOISTURE/CAPE AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT INDICATE THE RISK OF UPSCALE-GROWTH DOES EXIST. IF THESE STORMS MATURED...THEY WOULD LIKELY POSE A RISK OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL ACROSS MO INTO IL.

...NORTHERN IL INTO OH THIS AFTERNOON...
A SMALL-SCALE VORTICITY MAX IS SHOWN IN MOST 12Z INITIALIZATIONS OVER SOUTHERN MN. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY IS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON. IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL COULD OCCUR IN THIS REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.

...MO/IL/IND THIS EVENING...
MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIVERSE REGARDING THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF STRONG CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER NEB...IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THIS CLUSTER OR A REMNANT OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE A RISK OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THROUGH THE EVENING. ITS UNCLEAR WHICH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WILL BECOME A DOMINANT RISK TODAY...BUT THIS SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY POSE THE GREATEST RISK OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

..HART/ROGERS.. 07/26/2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16479
182. StAugustineFL
12:20 PM GMT on July 26, 2014
Having lived along the MS River in SE Iowa years back, I can attest to the mayfly inundation. When it's peak season, the density is quite amazing. Back in college I was working rotating shifts as a LSE (limited service employee) during the summers at DuPont. There was no AC in the plant area thus all the windows were opened during the hot summer months at night to provide a little cooling . Mayfly's are drawn to the light and would come in by the hoards during the overnight hours only to die shortly thereafter with their dead bodies scattered everywhere across the floor. I had the displeasure of having to sweep them off the floors a time or 10. Fun times.
Member Since: March 8, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 802
181. Thunderfan
5:02 PM GMT on July 25, 2014
Wow - that Mayfly story is something else. I can't image how dense that was to make the radar look like that.
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 791
180. beell
1:44 PM GMT on July 25, 2014
Hi, jus!,
Running late this morning. Thanks for the kind words.
:)

I have seen a few pictures over the years from "mud events". I have made an appearance in some of them but I don't remember!
TGIF, later.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16479
179. beell
1:38 PM GMT on July 25, 2014

(click image for all 06Z Day 2 graphics)

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN KS EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OH RIVER VALLEY...

AMENDED FOR OH VALLEY AREA

...SUMMARY...
BOUTS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SPORADIC DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK DURING THE DAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO WRN PA AND NY DURING THE DAY...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL QUICKLY EWD ACROSS WI AND UPPER MI...THEN BECOME STALLED SWWD ACROSS NRN IL...IA...AND NRN MO AND KS THROUGH EVENING. A BROAD BELT OF SWLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP AND BRING SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE NEWD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 70S DEWPOINTS INTO IL AND INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY FROM ERN OH INTO WRN PA AND NY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD TROUGH...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WIND THREAT POSSIBLE FROM IL INTO WRN OH OVERNIGHT AS LIFT INCREASES WITH THE LARGER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION. ...LOWER MO VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY... EARLY DAY STORMS ACROSS INDIANA AND OH SHOULD LIFT RAPIDLY NEWD WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING WITH FULL HEATING TO THE W. WEAK FORCING NEAR THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS DURING THE DAY WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FROM CENTRAL IL EWD ACROSS INDIANA...NRN KY AND WRN OH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A CORRIDOR OF STRONG STORMS...PERHAPS A SEVERE MCS. GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.00 INCHES AND INCREASING SHEAR PROFILES OVERNIGHT...SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING HOW EARLIER STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AIR MASS WILL PRECLUDE HIGHER PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ALSO FAVOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD THE STORMS NOT MELD TOGETHER SO QUICKLY. GIVEN THIS POSSIBLE STORM MODE...A COUPLE TORNADOES COULD OCCUR.

...WRN PA...WRN NY...ERN OH...
LIFT FROM WARM ADVECTION NEAR AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW-AMPLITUDE FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND FAVORABLE FLOW ALOFT INDICATE A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.

...NERN MN INTO NRN WI LATE...
SUBSTANTIAL COOLING ALOFT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH THE SEWD-MOVING UPPER LOW. GIVEN A RATHER DRY AIR MASS LEFT IN PLACE BEHIND THE MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE...INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. STILL...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND LONG HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR A FEW SMALL CORES WITH HAIL...MOST LIKELY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

..JEWELL.. 07/25/2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16479
178. beell
1:08 PM GMT on July 25, 2014
Check the by-line!

Bug derecho: Swarm of Mayflies caught on radar in Upper Midwest Washington Post
BY ANGELA FRITZ
July 24 at 2:57 pm


Mayflies are captured on radar reflectivity after an extremely large hatching event near La Crosse, Wisc. on July 20, 2014. (NWS LaCrosse)


(Joey Hulett via NWS)/

Fair warning to bug-haters: this might be the grossest thing you see today.
On Sunday evening, the La Crosse, Wisc. radar lit up with what, to the untrained eye, looks like a pretty intense rainfall event over the Mississippi River. Reflectivities maxed out at around 40 dbz, and it looked like a strong line of thunderstorms was developing. But not a drop of rain fell...more here
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16479
177. juslivn
3:38 AM GMT on July 25, 2014
Good luck to dau at school and have fun :) Great times, good memories for you and yours :) Hope the weather cooperates. I'll be watching here, too you don't have to worry...
Of course, it is a huge weekend up here for a local Country Thunder Music Festival (4 day Country Music festival) huge numbers camping too, just North of me. It always seems to be a stormy weekend. They've had quite a lot of 'mud festivals' through the years, lol.
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 85 Comments: 10065
176. beell
11:49 AM GMT on July 24, 2014

click for all Day 3 Outlook graphics

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WILL ACCELERATE SE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY EARLY SUN. A BROAD BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS SHOULD BE PREVALENT FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS TO LOWER GREAT LAKES. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL EXTEND S OF THE PRIMARY CANADIAN CYCLONE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

...CNTRL PLAINS TO OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...
S OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...A STRONG TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD BE PRESENT FROM PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS TO MIDWEST AS THE PLAINS EML PLUME IS ADVECTED E TOWARDS THE NRN APPALACHIANS. WAA-DRIVEN ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/SAT OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...CAPPING SHOULD LARGELY INHIBIT SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE DAY. THE DEGREE OF INHIBITION SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS COMPARED TO D2...OWING TO MINOR HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLER 700 MB TEMPERATURES /ESPECIALLY E OF THE MS RIVER/.

SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD FORM BY EVENING WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AN ORGANIZED MCS OR TWO MAY DEVELOP. LARGE HAIL WILL BE MOST PROBABLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE EVENING INTO SAT NIGHT. IF SHORTER-TERM MESOSCALE PREDICTABILITY INCREASES...CORRIDORS OF HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BECOME EVIDENT IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES ARE -- 1) RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING S OF THE CNTRL PLAINS TO MIDWEST FRONT...2) POTENTIAL ELEVATED STORMS OVER SD LATE D2 HINDERING DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND 3) STRENGTH OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT. STILL...AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE.

..GRAMS.. 07/24/2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16479
175. beell
11:41 AM GMT on July 24, 2014
The year of the MCS, bf? No/Low tornado counts may have left me placing a jaded focus on the wind.

Despite my perception of an unusually high number of wind reports for this year, 2014 (through July 31st) has the lowest total LSR Wind Damage reports in the past 5 years. Sitting AOA 8,291 reports to date.

Busiest year in the last 5 was 2011 with 14,698 reports through the same period (Jan - July).

SPC Climo


Morning, jus.
Doing good enough to stay just a little bit behind! Got to help daughter #1 get packed up and moved back to school for the fall semester this weekend but will try to watch with you.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16479
174. juslivn
3:51 AM GMT on July 24, 2014
Hmmmm. Thanks for posting the info.
Will keep an eye on this in N. IL now. Hope you are all doing well :)
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 85 Comments: 10065

Viewing: 224 - 174

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5Blog Index

Top of Page

About beell