Weather - May 1

By: beell , 10:46 AM GMT on May 01, 2014

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265. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:01 AM GMT on May 22, 2014
beell has created a new entry.
264. beell
12:57 AM GMT on May 22, 2014
Hiya folks!
Planning a blog and weather watching break for a bit. Very dear friends from New Zealand stopping by for a few days.
Thanks for the weather posts, bf & tf.
Thanks for the Coursera PSA, Linda. Might just fool around and enroll!
95°F for KMCO/Saturday, Scott! ;)
:)

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16201
263. Barefootontherocks
10:06 PM GMT on May 21, 2014
(Lubbock radar removed)

Add: 7:15 pm. TX panhandle is getting some rain.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18349
262. Thunderfan
9:35 PM GMT on May 21, 2014
Wow.

Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 758
261. Barefootontherocks
8:53 PM GMT on May 21, 2014
Quoting Thunderfan:
You mean this, BF? Quite impressive. I've been in the Denver airport once. Not near that entertaining...


Yes.

I drove through Denver once on the interstate from WY heading to KS. Never will again. Kind of like El Paso. lpl Next time, find another route even if you have to detour to Guatemala. (Well, going through el Paso on the train is nice. Driving, you're lucky to survive.)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18349
260. Barefootontherocks
8:50 PM GMT on May 21, 2014
Click for txt
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18349
259. Thunderfan
8:49 PM GMT on May 21, 2014
You mean this, BF? Quite impressive. I've been in the Denver airport once. Not near that entertaining...

Quoting 762. Doppler22:


Picture from Denver Airport under tornado warning right now via @SarahMillett !!!!
@StormCoker

Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 758
258. Barefootontherocks
8:45 PM GMT on May 21, 2014
I hope for rains. LPL. Yes. May. will be gone in a flash.


Did you see the photo at the main just now? A EFbig viewed from Denver Airport.

Tornado reports
2005 W AURORA ARAPAHOE CO 3970 10481 (BOU)
2010 3 S AURORA ARAPAHOE CO 3966 10481 RAIN WRAPPED (BOU)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18349
257. Thunderfan
8:29 PM GMT on May 21, 2014
Looks like the first of the drought relief rains on the way, in whatever week it is.

If it accumulates as hail, I guess the advantage is a slow melt so it doesn't wash away as fast...
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 758
256. Barefootontherocks
8:28 PM GMT on May 21, 2014
Click image for text


Also an MCD earlier for NC. Maybe some storms today? Wyoming to Colorado might be Oooshee. Definitely the in-person observation place to be - if you're wearing an apricot scarf.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18349
255. Barefootontherocks
8:15 PM GMT on May 21, 2014

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0641
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AND E-CNTRL NM / TX SOUTH PLAINS / TX
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 212004Z - 212100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCTD STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY
INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS APPEAR PROBABLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCTD CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE NM/W TX HIGH PLAINS AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S
THIS AFTN. APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VIA 50S DEWPOINTS HAS
ADVECTED NWWD INTO SERN NM AS THE DRYLINE RETREATED WWD OVER THE ERN
PLAINS. THE DRYLINE EXTENDS NEWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE AND IS
LOCATED S AND SE OF A FRONTAL ZONE MOVING SLOWLY SWD INTO THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE -- EFFECTIVELY WEDGING THE REMAINING
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS INTO ERN NM AROUND THE I-40 CORRIDOR.

THE CAP IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY ERODE INVOF THE DRYLINE/MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITY AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY /500-1500 J PER KG
MLCAPE/ DEVELOPS. VERY STEEP LOW- AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL ACT TO ORGANIZE STORMS INTO PRIMARILY
STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELLS. LOCALIZED INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS SHOWN IN
MULTIPLE RUNS OF DIVERSE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE MOST VIGOROUS STORMS. THE
MORE INTENSE MID-LEVEL CORES MAY YIELD A LARGE HAIL THREAT.

..SMITH/HART.. 05/21/2014

Hmmm. Today is Wednesday. But I forget what week. Yes. May.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18349
254. Barefootontherocks
8:12 PM GMT on May 21, 2014

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0640
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...DENVER METRO VICINITY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...

VALID 211958Z - 212100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 165 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS OVER THE DENVER METRO AREA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND POSE A LARGE TO VERY LARGE
HAIL THREAT. THE POTENTIAL FOR A MESOCYCLONIC TORNADO APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING TOO.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG ELY FLOW FOCUSED IN
THE DCVZ IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE DENVER METRO AREA. KFTG
RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST HOUR SHOWS A FEW STORMS EXHIBITING
SUPERCELL STRUCTURE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORM OVER THE DENVER CITY
LIMITS AS OF 1955Z. THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ATTRIBUTED TO THE
DCVZ AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WOULD SUGGEST
LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION WILL PROBABLY INCREASE. ADDITIONAL THREATS
WITH THE DENVER AREA ACTIVITY INCLUDE LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL. THE
NSSL-SHAVE EXPERIMENT DOCUMENTED GOLFBALL HAIL OVER SWRN DENVER
WITHIN THE PAST 30-45 MINUTES AND THE LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL
PROBABLY INCREASE FURTHER AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO MATURE/ORGANIZE.

..SMITH.. 05/21/2014

Click image for text


Add:
Click image for text
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18349
253. Thunderfan
6:45 PM GMT on May 21, 2014
My relatives in Northern KY may get an icy reception from the storms this PM. At least those twisters do not seem all that likely...



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 164
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
SOUTHERN OHIO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM
UNTIL 900 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF TERRE HAUTE INDIANA TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PARKERSBURG WEST VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF IND/OH AND TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL.
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 758
252. Barefootontherocks
6:02 PM GMT on May 21, 2014
Tf,
I forgot the adjective' "hilarious," related to the zomboid discussion!

Gotta read through the Day 1, 2, 3 more before I make an opinion on those changes. Not real sure everyone who needs to will get it. Maybe just represents my own resistance to change.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18349
251. Thunderfan
3:21 PM GMT on May 21, 2014
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Good morning, bl.
Yes. Didn't see the comment but I noticed the train whistle harmony and liked it. Also enjoy the depth of the lyric.

LPL, Tf.
Read the Paranoid Zombie Pentagon discussion at Doc M's long after the fact. No doubt I missed some of it because I ignore a few handles to make Doc M's blog comments a quicker and more pleasant read. A year or more ago, I gave up trying to inject levity into that gang. LPL. Stray from party lines and you're skewered!


I mean Zombies - what took them so long?

Hey - I like the proposed SPC changes. Let's make it so!
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 758
250. Barefootontherocks
3:03 PM GMT on May 21, 2014
Oh, what I came by for this morning...

Through June 17, SPC is soliciting comment on the proposed convective outlook changes.

Examples of proposed new approach to Days 1, 2 and 3. These are complicated, to say the least...

The proposed Day 4-8 outlook changes look good to me...

...but, then, I believe Ravens can speak English.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18349
249. Barefootontherocks
2:52 PM GMT on May 21, 2014
Good morning, bl.
Yes. Didn't see the yt comment but I noticed the train whistle harmony and liked it. Also enjoy the depth of the lyric.

Till today, didn't connect LBT with this familiar hit. Some "trademark harmony" at the end... Boondocks

LPL, Tf.
Read the Paranoid Zombie Pentagon discussion at Doc M's long after the fact. No doubt I missed some of it because I ignore a few handles to make Doc M's blog comments a quicker and more pleasant read. A year or more ago, I gave up trying to inject levity into that gang. LPL. Stray from party lines and you're skewered!
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18349
248. StormTrackerScott
2:03 PM GMT on May 21, 2014
Good Morning guys.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
247. Thoughtsteader
11:56 AM GMT on May 21, 2014
It's a public service announcement!

Coursera just sent me a list of upcoming courses I might be interested in. Some of you might be interested in this one, too: Model Thinking, taught by Scott Page. It's free, like all their offerings, which you can browse here.
Member Since: January 16, 2014 Posts: 32 Comments: 483
246. Thunderfan
11:10 AM GMT on May 21, 2014
LOL BL - One of my favorite things to do (for the little kid in me) since I moved down South is to plow a fire ant mound with my push lawn mower. Watching what seems to be millions of ants run around like a maniacs just fascinates me. I just have to be careful enough to not stand there too long, or I'll get bit and suffer.

I didn't mean to draw my neighbor over, but he showed up with his fire ant repellant. I much appreciated it.
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 758
245. beell
11:00 AM GMT on May 21, 2014
Morning, folks,
Got sidetracked last night!

Yesterday's activity over IA and IL could have been worse. Fortunate that the boundary more-or-less coincided with the upper-level convergence (divergence is what we want) associated with the ridge crest. A hint of crest curvature in the upper level winds in your sat grab, Aug.

Tf, I know you are quite capable of fending for yourself on Doc M's blog-but please dont make me feel compelled to rush to your aid for a while, lol!

Thanks for another LBT tune, bf. They do sing pretty. One of the comments below the YT vid pointed towards a "train-whistle" effect of the vocal harmonies towards the end of "Shup up Train". That's using your "instruments" I guess!

Hi, Jus! Ya'll have prompted me to find some time to look at suppposed lake breeze effects on the east side of the lake.
Be back in a bit, I hope.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16201
244. juslivn
3:31 AM GMT on May 21, 2014
Hey, yes, St. Aug. it actually did set up farther south with most of the damage, even though there were sea breezes (well not those kinds of sea breezes, but sea breezes up here, too) lol.. No, youz guys are correct. We don't generally use the 'sea breeze correlation in our discussion here by da Lake, as long as I've been watching' but then again that's after a few sea breezes too many ;/
Whad r ya New??? NWS Chicago Romeoville discussion peep? Sea breezes...sheesh.
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 85 Comments: 10049
243. Barefootontherocks
2:34 AM GMT on May 21, 2014
Quoting 240. StAugustineFL:

I had to read again TF. They did say sea breeze. I would think "lake" would be more accurate. In the winter, it's lake effect snow, not sea effect snow.

Time to step away from the laptop and take a walk. My 42 year old rear end is hell bent on getting in shape and losing 5-10 lbs. 190 lbs just doesn't cut it anymore, lol
You know, juslivn who is real knowledgeable about weather in that area mentioned the "sea breeze" terminology this eve also - over at her blog. If you wanted to, you might ask her if this is a part of the usual met terminology up that way. She could give you a good answer.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18349
242. Barefootontherocks
2:28 AM GMT on May 21, 2014
Serious weather watchers always look for cold pool development and interaction. So far, I get there is a cold pool and that's about it. Need for further study is obvious.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0629
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0906 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NE...INCLUDING THE PNHDL / NERN CO / NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160...162...

VALID 210206Z - 210330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
160...162...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SEVERE HAIL
CONTINUES OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW 160 INTO THE WRN PARTS OF WW 162.
FARTHER W...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING OVER WRN
PARTS OF REMAINING WW 160.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 0145Z...REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATED TWO
SEPARATE CLUSTERS OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS...ONE OVER MORRILL COUNTY
NEBRASKA MOVING 290/15 KT...AND THE OTHER OVER WASHINGTON...NRN
LINCOLN...AND NWRN KIT CARSON COUNTIES COLORADO MOVING 285/20 KT.
THE LATTER STORM COMPLEX IS SITUATED ON THE COOL SIDE OF A
SFC-850-MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AT THE NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S. AND EVEN IN THE
PRESENCE OF INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION... THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE EXISTING COLD POOL WITH A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LLJ
MAY SUSTAIN THESE TSTMS EWD INTO NWRN KANSAS BY ABOUT 04Z.
LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH
THESE STORMS.

WITH REGARD TO THE NEBRASKA STORMS...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A
GRADUAL WEAKENING...LIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE...NRN PORTIONS OF WW 162 MAY
BE ABLE TO BE CLEARED EARLY.

..MEAD.. 05/21/2014
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18349
241. Thunderfan
1:54 AM GMT on May 21, 2014
Let's see - this looks like a nice orderly blog. How can I cause everyone to fuss?

No - can't think of a way.

hey been watching the Cubs/Yankees game on WGN. i forgot how much I liked baseball. LOL. Of course started to watch the game to catch the "severe" weather role into Chi-town.
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 758
240. StAugustineFL
8:32 PM GMT on May 20, 2014
I had to read again TF. They did say sea breeze. I would think "lake" would be more accurate. In the winter, it's lake effect snow, not sea effect snow.

Time to step away from the laptop and take a walk. My 42 year old rear end is hell bent on getting in shape and losing 5-10 lbs. 190 lbs just doesn't cut it anymore, lol
Member Since: March 8, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 796
239. Thunderfan
8:06 PM GMT on May 20, 2014
Hey Aug - that correlates well with your satellite pic. The sun is really heating it up south of that cumulus line in Wisconsin.

Did they really say sea breeze in the discussion? Do the locals call it that up there I wonder? I would think "lake breeze" since it is fresh water. LOL.
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 758
238. StAugustineFL
8:00 PM GMT on May 20, 2014
A touch further north than I would've guessed but voilla - there we go. I can easily get into the stadium but need assistance locating my seat.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0623
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...NERN IL...ERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201955Z - 202200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SERN WI...WITH OTHER
STORMS FORMING TO THE SW INTO IA. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH PLACEMENT.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING CU FIELD OVER SRN
WI IN THE PLUME OF STEEPER LOWER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WHERE
DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 60S F. THIS AREA IS NEAR A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH...WITH CONVERGENCE BEING ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE.


MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A ROBUST SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND A FAVORABLY LONG HODOGRAPH. ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAK...THE HODOGRAPH STILL FAVORS A RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL.

SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS CU BEGINNING TO FILL IN SWWD INTO IA WITHIN THE
AXIS OF DILATATION. CONTINUED HEATING IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
BREAK THE CAP AND RESULT IN SEVERAL STORMS CAPABLE MAINLY OF HAIL.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SIG HAIL POTENTIAL IS WHETHER STORMS
WILL DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS DESPITE THE RATHER WEAK FORCING AND
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT...OR MORE TOWARD MULTICELLS...IN
WHICH CASE THE HAIL COULD STILL BE LARGE BUT NO GREATER THAN ABOUT
GOLF BALL.

..JEWELL/HART.. 05/20/2014
Member Since: March 8, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 796
237. StAugustineFL
7:40 PM GMT on May 20, 2014
Just a hunch here but perhaps an MD forthcoming relatively soon (although "relatively soon" is subjective based on ones' opinion) Cumulus field is growing quickly over the southern half of IA. I haven't checked any maps but I suspect there's a LLJ as the clouds are blasting basically west to east towards west central IL. Static 1KM image from COD along with a NOAA Midwest region loop below.



Midwest Visible Satellite Loop
Member Since: March 8, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 796
236. juslivn
6:57 PM GMT on May 20, 2014
Thanks for the info. TF.
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 85 Comments: 10049
235. Thunderfan
6:20 PM GMT on May 20, 2014
Hey Juslivn – I’ve read that the lower atmosphere is stoked for explosiveness, but no upper level support. Not able to look to verify that prognoses though. It will be worth keeping an eye out. Make sure your camera is fully charged so that you can document any passing twisters. Oh yeah – take cover if it gets risky.
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 758
234. juslivn
6:00 PM GMT on May 20, 2014
Watchin and waiting here due North of Chi-town by the Wisconsin border TF! Let's hope not ;/
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 85 Comments: 10049
233. Thunderfan
5:45 PM GMT on May 20, 2014
This could mean that some areas of Chicago could be a very windy city today...

Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 758
232. Barefootontherocks
2:57 PM GMT on May 20, 2014
"You are such a DCB...
Only when I'm in the city, bf.

That's a great vid. And probably one of the best pure-vocal country groups (as in-"they don't play instruments for a livin") around. Thanks."


Shut Up Train
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18349
231. Thunderfan
2:35 PM GMT on May 20, 2014
Quoting 230. StormTrackerScott:



Mid 90's with high humidity is no fun.


I hate swimming in pools or at the beach with temps in the 60's. Brrr. Mid 90's with high humidity is very fun at these locations!
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 758
230. StormTrackerScott
12:44 PM GMT on May 20, 2014
Quoting 225. beell:
Hey, Scott! What's up? Doin' the morning cut 'n paste here.

Been following your heated heat posts on the main blog. May not be record-setting, but anything, anywhere that reaches the mid--90's would be above the norms!


Mid 90's with high humidity is no fun.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
229. Thunderfan
11:20 AM GMT on May 20, 2014
Good point - I remember some great June/Julys with NW flow aloft along the Gulf Coast. Along the flow would come disturbances from the plains states. It would generate great lightning storms.

I agree - have a good one.
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 758
228. beell
11:14 AM GMT on May 20, 2014
Mornin', Tf.

One item that may temper the heat would be a tendency for the eastern half of the GOM states to get into a more NW flow pattern. Areas closer to the Mississippi River Valley may stay parked under the ridge a bit longer.

Ok, have a good 'un!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16201
227. Thunderfan
11:03 AM GMT on May 20, 2014
Oh yes - the heat will be on in the South. While I have enjoyed the bonus time with no A/C, we are behind schedule with the heat. Poor little GOM is practically cold for this time of the year, at least along the coast.

Dauphin Island has had sea temp as low as 72 the past 24 hours. But it is warming up - 75 currently, was 78 in later afternoon yesterday.
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 758
226. beell
10:39 AM GMT on May 20, 2014
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SWRN U.S. UPPER LOW IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TO EVENTUALLY KICK EAST INTO THE SRN ROCKIES...THEN PERHAPS EJECT NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY OR EAST INTO OK...PER GFS. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION...MODULATED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BY STRENGTH OF THE LLJ. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES DOWNSTREAM. CUMULATIVELY...A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION MAY ULTIMATELY BE NOTED ACROSS THE PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM TEXAS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE NOTED WITHIN LARGER CONVECTIVE CORRIDORS...WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH AND THE LACK OF CLARITY REGARDING EJECTING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA WILL PRECLUDE 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS THIS PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 05/20/2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16201
225. beell
10:30 AM GMT on May 20, 2014
Hey, Scott! What's up? Doin' the morning cut 'n paste here.

Been following your heated heat posts on the main blog. May not be record-setting, but anything, anywhere that reaches the mid--90's would be above the norms!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16201
224. beell
10:25 AM GMT on May 20, 2014

06Z Day 1 Probabilistic Wind (click image for all Day 1 graphics)

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. OTHER SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY TODAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...SLY TO SWLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A RESULT...SFC DEWPOINTS MAY REACH THE LOWER 60S F ACROSS PARTS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ENABLING A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP FROM THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO INITIATE BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR A SFC TROUGH IN ERN IA AND NWRN IL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINEAR MCS...MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/WED FROM PEORIA IL ESEWD TO NEAR DAYTON OH SHOW MLCAPE OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KT. THIS SHOULD INITIALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS CELLS INITIATE ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WITH BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS. AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A TRANSITION TO LINEAR MODE SHOULD OCCUR AS A FORWARD-PROPAGATING WIND PRODUCING MCS ORGANIZES ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS NRN IL...NRN IND REACHING CNTRL OH BY EARLY TO MID EVENING. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS CORRIDOR.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TODAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AS UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXTEND NWWD ACROSS NE CO AND SE WY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE NEAR 50 F. AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ON THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND MOVE SEWD INTO NERN CO. A CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING EVENTUALLY REACHING FAR NW KS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/WED FOR AKRON CO SHOW MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH 45 TO 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 TO 9.0 C/KM SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATION MAKING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

..BROYLES/BUNTING.. 05/20/2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16201
223. StormTrackerScott
10:23 AM GMT on May 20, 2014
Good morning Beell.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
222. beell
10:15 AM GMT on May 20, 2014

(click image for all 06Z Day 2 graphics)

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH AND MID-MS VALLEY REGION...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY. VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE NEUTRAL-WEAK HEIGHT RISES IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN WY...SWD INTO CO. ELY UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW NORTH OF SYNOPTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FORCE 50F+ SFC DEW POINTS TO THE FRONT RANGE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY 21Z. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH ELY COMPONENT IN THE LOWEST 2KM AND SBCAPE AOA 1500 J/KG AT DEN TO 2000 J/KG AT LIC. SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 45KT FAVORS LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST HAIL ALGORITHM SUGGESTS HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES MAY BE NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED 20 T/TD SPREADS. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL CONDITIONS SEEM FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS SUPERCELLS MERGE NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. AS LLJ INCREASES INTO NEWD-PROPAGATING CONVECTION SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD INTO CNTRL KS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...JUST NORTH OF SFC FRONT. HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT AFTER 04Z.

...OH/MID-MS VALLEY...

RIDGE-TOPPING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 22/12Z AS 60KT+ 500MB SPEED MAX TRANSLATES TO WRN LAKE ERIE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS LOWER MI...SWWD INTO NRN IL AT 18Z. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 18Z WITHIN AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP WLY FLOW AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR. SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE LIKELY A BIT TOO MOIST WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR ROBUST CONVECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FRONTAL-INDUCED CONVECTION MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS TSTMS SPREAD SEWD AT 30-35KT TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. WILL MAINTAIN 15 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THIS REGION GIVEN THE POSSIBLE OVER MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...IF AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE MATURES BENEATH THE STRONG SPEED MAX A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT COULD UNFOLD ACROSS THIS REGION. SEVERE PROBS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF INSTABILITY REFLECTS LATEST NAM GUIDANCE.

..DARROW.. 05/20/2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16201
221. beell
2:39 AM GMT on May 20, 2014
A good question, Tf. Not much to offer in the way of exactitude tonight.

Would still expect strong heating along the dryline on Saturday and Sunday. Any storms on Saturday should drift on out to the northeast in time for a recharge for Sunday.

A dryline that won't be making much progress to the east each day before retreating. The heavier convective rains will probably not occur until late in the weekend with the approach of the mid/upper low.

And even though there seems to be plenty of moisture modeled with this system, some of it may sacrifice itself to virga early in the weekend.

Overall, still don't see this as much of a tornado event. Much better watching the other "tornado".
:)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16201
220. Thunderfan
12:49 AM GMT on May 20, 2014
Beell - thanks for the reminder to listen to Pontoon. Didn't feel right clicking it at work. Nice tune. Of course, I find it hard to believe this song wasn't picked. LOL

Wondering if it may actually be too wet to get many twisters in the Panhandle areas. I haven't studies the graphs, so I may be full of smoke, but with all that moisture we won't have a very powerful dry line, right?
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 758
219. beell
12:32 AM GMT on May 20, 2014
Hi, Linda.
Well, if you insist. No rain. But at some point we may have to look towards the tropics to catch up, lol. And the dry weather should indeed slow down the love bug hatches. Go make some hay!

You are such a DCB...
Only when I'm in the city, bf.

That's a great vid. And probably one of the best pure-vocal country groups (as in-"they don't play instruments for a livin") around. Thanks.

I'm not liking it too much, 1900. A true cut-off that may fill and weaken as it slowly ejects over W TX and the exit region turns at least slightly meridonal. But it appears the strongest mid-level flow will occur this weekend over SW OK and adjacent areas of TX. Areas farther north may see even weaker mid and lower tropospheric flow. A little on the sluggish side.

LCL's AOA 2,000 meters but I expect a couple of storms could work to the surface. Perhaps a good opportunity to photograph one of those hi-based UFO-looking cells. They're awesome and unforgettable. A good solid "Maybe" seems about right on a Monday (today)!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16201
218. 1900hurricane
8:32 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Might head out towards the panhandle this weekend. Maybe...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11665
217. Barefootontherocks
12:36 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting beell:
Morning, Tf,
Signs were there yesterday as low pressure over the Great Basin backs the lower tropspheric flow over the high plains.
Shhh. Don't wake bf. I was thinking more along the lines of Snippy Posting Female...
:)
Oh. How did I miss that before I commented? You are such a DCB (190).

Storm . Prediction . Fail .

Please excuse my warped humoresque. ("Pontoon")
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18349
216. Barefootontherocks
12:20 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting beell:

(click image for storm reports)
Some nice country to be seeing storms in. Being from the "you're lucky to see pea hail twice in a lifetime" part of the world, first time I saw big hail wasn't that long ago, in the open country east of Scott's Bluff, Neb. Had to stop driving and go into a isolated roadside attraction and pretend to be hungry 'cause it was raining and blowing. And then the hail started. Neat day I will never forget.

Hope your Moonday is neat, bl and Tf, and all who enter here.

Ps. Thanks for the forecast, bl.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18349
215. Thoughtsteader
12:06 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
BUT AS IT STANDS DO NOT COUNT ON ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

That sound you hear? That's me, singing alleluias as I ponder the possibility of meeting a deadline before the holiday. That second sound? That clink-clink? That would be the sound of change dropping into the piggy bank. I wouldn't fuss about rain at all, but this week presents some real advantages, especially since the love bugs are gone. ;)
Member Since: January 16, 2014 Posts: 32 Comments: 483

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