Weather - April 4

By: beell , 10:04 PM GMT on April 04, 2014

Share this Blog
4
+

College of DuPage-Severe Weather Warnings


(click image for storm reports)

Current WPC Surface Analysis
click to zoom


NWS Radar
Click area of interest for nearest NWS WFO Doppler Radar


Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
mouse-over for product title, click for full product






UNISYS Water Vapor / Enhanced Infrared
(click for full image)


WPC 24, 48, 60-HR Forecast of Fronts/Pressure/Weather
click to enlarge


WPC Day 1-3 24HR QPF
click to enlarge



SPC Current Mesoanalysis and Short Range Ensemble Forecast Pages
(click graphic for main pages)
SPC Meso Pages SREF Model Pages

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 464 - 414

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

464. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
10:46 AM GMT on May 01, 2014
beell has created a new entry.
463. Thunderfan
4:12 PM GMT on April 30, 2014
Beell, BF, Aqua, etc.

Nary a clap of thunder. Suppose to be strong wind from a "wake low" though. But, nary a clap of thunder. :(


Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 806
462. Thunderfan
4:07 PM GMT on April 30, 2014
@IrishEagle: Before/after of a partial house collapse & flooding on Galvin Ave in Bellview, FL.



@AK_KittyKat: Entire roads missing in Cordova Park neighborhood.



Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 806
461. Thunderfan
1:50 PM GMT on April 30, 2014
Quoting 460. aquak9:

dang TF- that's an eye-opener! I didn't know we had areas like that in Florida. Shame on me.

post 453 is sef-updating- I have NO IDEA how I did that. Now if I could just get the laundry to self-update....


I think that is a road along Pensacola Bay, thus the "Scenic" title. It may be close to the bridge destroyed by Ivan.
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 806
460. aquak9
1:28 PM GMT on April 30, 2014
dang TF- that's an eye-opener! I didn't know we had areas like that in Florida. Shame on me.

post 453 is sef-updating- I have NO IDEA how I did that. Now if I could just get the laundry to self-update....
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26491
459. Thunderfan
1:11 PM GMT on April 30, 2014
Wow! Scenic Hwy in Pensacola.

Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 806
458. Thunderfan
12:18 PM GMT on April 30, 2014
Beell - it is a shame that the excess water could not be stored up and shipped to you and the other folks out west. One person's flood is another person's gold.

Edit - I guess lightning detection no longer works on WUFU radar? Anyone have a good lightning detection link? Looks like a line of maybe storms/maybe just heavy rain is setting up to my SW heading NE.
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 806
457. beell
11:27 AM GMT on April 30, 2014
Morning, Tf,
We could use a little of that rain here. 6-8" deficits for the month. Just not all at once. Cool and clear. 57°. In a rush this AM.

Enjoy your thunder today!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16918
456. beell
11:13 AM GMT on April 30, 2014

(click image for storm reports)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16918
455. Thunderfan
10:13 AM GMT on April 30, 2014
24 inches in 25 hours is the quote with this picture from Pensacola

Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 806
454. Thunderfan
8:59 AM GMT on April 30, 2014
Looks like after a restful weekend coming up, that severe could pick back up next week.



ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 300850
SPC AC 300850

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT WED APR 30 2014

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BRIEFLY UNDERGO DEAMPLIFICATION WITH
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SCENARIO COMBINED WITH DIMINISHED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY EAST OF
THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN FOR SEVERE
TSTMS THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 6/MONDAY.

EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT SEVERE TSTMS MAY GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
PROBABLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL BE AS THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY VIA WESTERN STATES TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH SPECULATIONS ARE THAT CURRENT MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO QUICK/EASTWARD PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
INITIAL WESTERN STATES TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS...CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT SOME STRONGER TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS DAY
7/TUESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY. SEVERE WEATHER
MAY INCREASE ACROSS BROADER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO DAY 8/WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.


..GUYER.. 04/30/2014
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 806
453. aquak9
2:18 AM GMT on April 30, 2014
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26491
452. Thunderfan
1:16 AM GMT on April 30, 2014
Alright, time to give this computer a rest. I'm leaving you with something a bit more pleasant. Key West...

Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 806
451. Thunderfan
1:10 AM GMT on April 30, 2014
LOL Beell - Is NC part of any Alley. We have tornado alley and Dixie alley, which both starred in this outbreak. Tarheel alley maybe?

Well not worried about any warning alarms waking me up tonight. Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. That mess down in south Alabama and the Florida Panhandle may throw us enough cloud cover to prevent big storms?

My old stomping grounds near Mobile/Pensacola just getting drenched. Radar estimate from EVX radar showing lots of 6 inch rain totals. (I think MOB site still down from lightning.)
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 806
450. beell
12:54 AM GMT on April 30, 2014
Quoting 448. Thunderfan:

Maybe, just maybe something starting up in Bama?

‏@NWSAtlanta: Watching a storm intensify in south central AL (Coffee County) w/ rotation & increase in lightning. Will continue to monitor... #gawx






Maybe something in the NW corner of the state. Haleyville, Winston County?
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16918
449. beell
12:46 AM GMT on April 30, 2014
Quoting 447. Thunderfan:

NC getting warning after warning. Spotters say large tornado on the ground with this one...




With so much attention focused on the southeast, NC got overlooked-by me (again-April 25th) anyway!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16918
448. Thunderfan
12:00 AM GMT on April 30, 2014
Maybe, just maybe something starting up in Bama?

‏@NWSAtlanta: Watching a storm intensify in south central AL (Coffee County) w/ rotation & increase in lightning. Will continue to monitor... #gawx



Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 806
447. Thunderfan
11:52 PM GMT on April 29, 2014
NC getting warning after warning. Spotters say large tornado on the ground with this one...

Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 806
446. Thunderfan
11:20 PM GMT on April 29, 2014
This shows a good flooding potential for Gulf Coast area still. I saw this model's output 24 hours ago (or so). it predicted today's storm movement very well.

Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 806
445. beell
11:19 PM GMT on April 29, 2014


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0482
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL THROUGH SERN MS...SERN LA INTO SWRN AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 116...

VALID 292301Z - 300030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 116 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OVERALL THREAT. GREATEST NEAR TERM TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SERN MS.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING AN EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CNTRL FL NWWD INTO THE NRN GULF TO SERN MS TO NW OF MERIDIAN WHERE IT INTERSECTS A PACIFIC FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SCNTRL LA TO CNTRL MS NEAR JACKSON THEN NEWD THROUGH MIDDLE TN. WARM SECTOR OVER SERN MS BETWEEN THESE BOUNDARIES IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE WITH THE STRONGER INSTABILITY LOCATED OVER SRN MS AND SERN LA WHERE LOW 70S DEWPOINTS RESIDE. STRONG MID-UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP SHEAR AOA 50 KT. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY LARGE...EXCEPT ON COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE NEAR SFC WINDS REMAIN BACKED RESULTING IN 150-200 M2/S2 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY. SOME INCREASE IN THE LLJ IS FORECAST THIS EVENING OVER SERN MS AND SWRN AL. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEXT FEW HOURS IN MORE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR OVER SRN MS AND SERN LA. TORNADO THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE GREATEST IN NARROW ZONE AS THE STRONGER STORMS MOVE ENEWD AND INTERACT WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

FARTHER NORTH...STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS ECNTRL MS WHERE INSTABILITY IS MORE MARGINAL. WHILE A TORNADO THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN FARTHER SOUTH...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS STORMS INTERACT WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND BEFORE MOVING DEEPER INTO THE LESS UNSTABLE REGIME.

..DIAL.. 04/29/2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16918
444. beell
10:49 PM GMT on April 29, 2014
Hey, Tf. Doing good. Home early.

Pretty sure if the SPC is reading my blog it is for entertainment value only-and I hope that holds true for all visitors and contributors! I was just quicker with slapping a line on top of a vis grab and suggesting an outflow may cause a t-storm or two. Didn't have to produce a 250 word discussion and graphic!

Afternoon, Aug.
Nothing off-topic here. You know that. And besides this is "lets talk about outflow boundaries/sea breeze collision day". Looking at the radar, I see some strong storms moved through near the area indicated on your graphic.

Also a nice collision with the west coast sea breeze and that 400 mile long outflow over the northeastern gulf.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16918
443. Thunderfan
10:29 PM GMT on April 29, 2014
Hey Beell - how you doing?

Seen a few reports of wall clouds, funnels, and a twister or two in both MS and AL. Nothing too bad, yet....

Mobile seems to be looking for Noah and his Ark.
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 806
442. beell
10:15 PM GMT on April 29, 2014
Far southwestern Mississippi.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16918
441. Thunderfan
9:36 PM GMT on April 29, 2014
Yep Aug - I know what you mean. NC activity should not last much longer I suppose.

It clouded back up in Augusta pretty much all day. I'd be shocked to see any storms until some upper level support arrives.
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 806
440. StAugustineFL
8:50 PM GMT on April 29, 2014
Quoting 439. Thunderfan:

Aug - stuff like that is one of the reasons I miss Florida and the Gulf Coast. That's just neat.

Wow - 5 tornado warnings out of the Raleigh office right now.


I was just going to ask if anyone was paying attention to NC since the focus for today was centered on MS and AL. A couple of those warnings reported tornado's on the ground.
Member Since: March 8, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 828
439. Thunderfan
8:44 PM GMT on April 29, 2014
Aug - stuff like that is one of the reasons I miss Florida and the Gulf Coast. That's just neat.

Wow - 5 tornado warnings out of the Raleigh office right now.
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 806
438. StAugustineFL
8:13 PM GMT on April 29, 2014
Quoting 437. aquak9:

They always read his blog, TF- but only the smart ones take it to heart.

yeah I 'm in Jacksonville, three miles inland from Momma Atlantic.

(work/lurk mode enabled)


Apologies in advance beell for the off topic post and the poor quality MS paint graphic hastily thrown together. I got excited with the mesoscale features.

Nice outflow boundary moving east off the cells in western Duval and Clay counties are about to clash with the east coast sea breeze. Might see the storms pulse up a tad more or new cells try to pop in the clash zone.



Member Since: March 8, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 828
437. aquak9
5:38 PM GMT on April 29, 2014
They always read his blog, TF- but only the smart ones take it to heart.

yeah I 'm in Jacksonville, three miles inland from Momma Atlantic.

(work/lurk mode enabled)
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26491
436. Thunderfan
5:18 PM GMT on April 29, 2014
They are reading your blog again Beell...

AN ARCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A PRIOR MCS
--CURRENTLY OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO-- IS DRAPED FROM NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER INTO FAR SWRN MS
.
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 806
435. beell
5:18 PM GMT on April 29, 2014


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0475
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN AND SERN LA / MUCH OF SRN AND CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 291702Z - 291830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. RAPID SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND A TORNADIC SUPERCELL THREAT WILL LIKELY ENSUE AS STORMS MATURE.

DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN. AN ARCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A PRIOR MCS --CURRENTLY OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO-- IS DRAPED FROM NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER INTO FAR SWRN MS. THE AIRMASS TO THE S AND W OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS BECOMING QUITE UNSTABLE WITH AN AGITATED CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF LA AND STRONG HEATING OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF MS. AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCES NWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...MODERATE TO STRONG /1500-2500 J PER KG MLCAPE/ DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED.

AS ASCENT PROVIDED BY A 130 KT JET STREAK AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MOISTENING OCCUR...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FIRST NEAR THE MS RIVER AND SPREAD EWD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MS AND EVENTUALLY INTO AL. STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS WILL STRONGLY FAVOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODES AND A FORECAST STRENGTHENING IN H85 FLOW /30-40 KT/ THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BOOST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND CONCURRENTLY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES /SOME POSSIBLY STRONG/ AND A LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT IS PROBABLE.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16918
434. Thunderfan
4:20 PM GMT on April 29, 2014
Nice graphic Beell. Sun shining through the cirrus here. Don't think we'll end up with much here today - maybe tonight and tomorrow though.

Bama/Miss - looks scary again today, maybe further south areas will partake this time as well.
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 806
433. beell
3:16 PM GMT on April 29, 2014
Left over outflow boundary (maybe a g wave) across MS and into the gulf that may serve as a focus later this afternoon as the low levels recharge.



Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16918
432. Thunderfan
3:04 PM GMT on April 29, 2014
Quoting 426. aquak9:

g'morning beeelz'eh'bubs.

TF- I didn't realize you were just up the road from me. Oughtta be a way, it could say right next to our name, where we are- insteada taking four more clicks to find your location.

peace (bob ed help) ya'll


If memory recalls - you are in Jacksonville area?
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 806
431. aquak9
2:45 PM GMT on April 29, 2014
bf- I read your #427...I to remember being so upset at times, I remember joplin, watching, some of these events messed me up too, even if I'm not actively posting- I am often lurking from work and being so upset, just shaken up-

ok that's all... Bob Ed Help.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26491
430. Barefootontherocks
2:22 PM GMT on April 29, 2014
Still having trouble modifying comments in classic. Tried to add this to previous comment:

Just a Song Before I Go into the rat race. (Added)

Okay. Lata potatas!
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19201
429. Thunderfan
2:20 PM GMT on April 29, 2014
That does look good for thunder. LOL.

Had a nice line approaching us, but fell apart. Some severe drizzle occurred. Still cloudy. If sun comes out, things may pop later on.
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 806
428. Barefootontherocks
2:09 PM GMT on April 29, 2014
Yo, Tf.
Tor chance of 10% creeping your way? at the 0800 Day 1 Outlook.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2014

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF MS AND AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD TO
CNTRL AND ERN GULF COAST AND EWD TO THE CAROLINAS AND VA...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEVERAL TORNADOES...A FEW
OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG...VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY.

...SYNOPSIS...

A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST MAY PIVOT
SLIGHTLY NWD DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A NUMBER OF
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND IT/S PERIPHERY. OF CONSEQUENCE TO
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...A BROAD CYCLONIC BELT OF STRONG 500-MB
WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE SRN ROCKIES THROUGH SRN
PLAINS...LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS HIGH-MOMENTUM AIR STREAM...EARLY
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TIME-HEIGHT VAD DATA FROM THE SRN
PLAINS INDICATE A DISTINCT 70-80 KT JET STREAK AT 6 KM AGL WHICH
WILL PROGRESS EWD TODAY THROUGH THE ARKLATEX INTO LOWER MS
VALLEY...ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT.

AT THE SURFACE...AN OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW OVER SERN IA WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD INTO SRN OR CNTRL WI WHILE AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM THE MS VALLEY EWD INTO
OH/TN VALLEYS AND CNTRL GULF STATES. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT OVER
MS TODAY WITH THIS FEATURE TRACKING NEWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED.

...TN VALLEY SWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

MATURE-TO-DECAYING MCS ONGOING FROM NERN GA TO THE CNTRL FL PNHDL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WHILE
PROGRESSING EWD. IN ITS WAKE...STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL ENHANCE THE POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS
--CURRENTLY RESIDING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SRN LA-- THROUGH
MS/AL/SRN TN WITH DEWPOINTS RISING BACK THROUGH THE 60S. THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR BENEATH A RESIDUAL PLUME OF MODESTLY STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...PROMOTING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG.

FORCING FOR ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE MIDLEVEL
JET STREAK PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX INTO LOWER MS
VALLEY...WILL COMBINE WITH LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVING NWD INTO SRN PARTS OF MS/AL AND THE COLD FRONT
EDGING EWD/SEWD INTO WRN PARTS OF TN/MS TO FOSTER SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...THE COMBINATION OF THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND 50-70 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE
FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG ACROSS PARTS OF MS AND AL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

BY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...STORMS WILL LIKELY
COALESCE INTO A NE-SW-ORIENTED MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND
BOWING STRUCTURES WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND A FEW TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO CNTRL
AND ERN GULF COAST.

...CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

A BELT OF 25-30 KT SLY FLOW AT 850 MB WILL BE MAINTAINED TODAY E OF
THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE POLEWARD FLUX OF
65-70 F BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR. AND WHILE
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...THE INCREASING
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG.

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPLIFT ALONG THE NWD-MOVING WEDGE FRONT AND/OR
RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING
MCS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW IS EXPECTED TO FOSTER ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED TSTMS BY AFTERNOON WITHIN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
FEATURING A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 30-40 KT OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS CNTRL NC
THIS AFTERNOON INVOF OF THE WEDGE FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
ENHANCED.

...OH VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA ATTENDANT TO A VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NWD
FROM THE MID SOUTH/LOWER OH VALLEY WILL AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND/OR CONFLUENCE
ZONES TO PROMOTE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
AMIDST A STEEP-LAPSE-RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF
500-1500 J/KG. FORECAST WIND PROFILES INDICATE GENERALLY STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE WARM FRONT
WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED. AS SUCH CONVECTIVE MAY BE A
MIXTURE OF LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY LARGE
HAIL. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE LINEAR
STRUCTURES WHILE A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH SUPERCELLS
INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT.

..MEAD/MOSIER.. 04/29/2014
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19201
427. Barefootontherocks
1:36 PM GMT on April 29, 2014
Oh, Gouda. What a chuckle. Once dated this guy named Ed... who married a "bleater" from Texas after I dumped him for having three too many girlfriends. Oh, that's just too funny.
Quoting Thunderfan:
BF - it is just too fast and crazy today. I wasn't around for Bama 2011, OK 2013. Was it this crazy then?

Tf,
Though tragic and chaotic, May 2013 in Oklahoma was not as wild. Fewer storms. Had to shut my comp late last night when I finally had chance to look. Checked red-green (what I call the NWS storm relative velocity) and saw rotation in TN NW of Chattanooga, four storms rotating across AL - one about to cross GA border, and one rotating in east central Mississippi. In April 27, 2011, I missed seeing Tuscaloosa tornado but remember being able to watch storms crossing past Birmingham and into Georgia - near and around Rome, GA. Even though there were more storms and more tornadoes, I did not throw my hands up in the air and say "This is too much." April 2011 Alabama storms were prior to Joplin (I remember blogging with bl watching that eve.) and prior to the knowledge of the Tuscaloosa carnage. Joplin 2011 affected me deeply, even more so after I saw a presentation at the 2012 Severe Weather Workshop by the man in charge of Joplin EM. Joplin happened the day before the two EF4s and EF5 (El Reno-Piedmont) et al in OK. Those two EF4s crossed my stomping grounds. Moore last year, so close and so devastating to the community and Oklahoma. Reaction, in perspective to outbreaks, maybe is an accumulation of all that to the point of having to shut radar down yesterday. Don't know if that makes sense. Probably the short answer is last night was the first time I shut radar down because I couldn't bear to watch all those storm balls on the red-green crossing the same space they crossed in 2011.

Still, I live in awe of the storms and clouds and always will. So, No Shame related to a handle called tornadofan. :)

bl,
Good morning. Thanks for the photo analysis and all.
:)

aqua and bl,
Thanks. I had forgotten the whole story about Oz's chase in Yazoo City.

Shoots. Me and Rosie (old truck) scheduled a trip to OKC today, so I must get into gear.

Hello and stay safe to all who visit. Keep your eyes on the sky, Tf!
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19201
426. aquak9
1:27 PM GMT on April 29, 2014
g'morning beeelz'eh'bubs.

TF- I didn't realize you were just up the road from me. Oughtta be a way, it could say right next to our name, where we are- insteada taking four more clicks to find your location.

peace (bob ed help) ya'll
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26491
425. Thunderfan
12:05 PM GMT on April 29, 2014
Morning Beell/Thoughts - emailed my Mississippi client this morning. They are located about where the southern end of the storm reports are. A bit early for a reply though. (I miss Central time.)
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 806
424. beell
11:59 AM GMT on April 29, 2014

(click image for storm reports)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16918
423. Thoughtsteader
11:54 AM GMT on April 29, 2014
Gosh, I hate seeing that Day 1, TF. One of my friends lives in Hazel Green. Still haven't heard from her, and it looks like they could be in for it again today.
Member Since: January 16, 2014 Posts: 40 Comments: 542
422. Thunderfan
6:23 AM GMT on April 29, 2014
Alright back to bed. I see on first Day 1 outlook of day, Augusta has made the 5% tornado risk. Looks like the chance of thunder is going to be decent anyway...

Edit - only seeking thunder. I don't know what kind of nut would name themselves "tornadofan" after the past few days. :)

Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 806
421. Thunderfan
6:00 AM GMT on April 29, 2014
Preliminary tornado reports so far today plotted on 04/28/14 20Z Convective Outlook.

Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 806
420. aquak9
2:09 AM GMT on April 29, 2014
BobEdGoatsHelp!!!

One of my ALL-TIME favorite videos!!

thank you beell!
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26491
419. Thunderfan
1:34 AM GMT on April 29, 2014
So sleepy. You'll probably see me posting at 3 AM, but good night. WU might work better then anyway. Nah....
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 806
418. beell
1:20 AM GMT on April 29, 2014
Just does not want to behave and get linear, Tf. Still some separation between the cell elements (from your visible). And a more discrete band out ahead in southern Miss.

Hi, doggie,
We had an infamous code-writer at the corp office. Fix something, Patch the fix. Patch the patch. Patch the patched patch... After a while no one could figure it out.

His name was Bob.

The expression at the local level became "It's all Bob-ed up". I can see "wufu'd" working here.

I know you know.




Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16918
417. aquak9
1:08 AM GMT on April 29, 2014
wufu- LOVE IT
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26491
416. Thunderfan
1:05 AM GMT on April 29, 2014
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 806
415. beell
12:26 AM GMT on April 29, 2014

(click for all Outlook graphics)

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING TORNADOES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ENCIRCLING THE LOW...TWO MID-LEVEL JET STREAKS WILL FOCUS THE SEVERE RISK ON TUESDAY. THE FIRST JET STREAK CURRENTLY PIVOTING THROUGH THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW WILL ADVANCE FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE AN UPSTREAM JET MAX ADVANCES FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE TN VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL JET STREAMS ACCOMPANYING BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN POLEWARD FLUXES OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIR OVER THE SERN STATES IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC...
SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A REGION OF MID/UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE LLJ ATTENDANT TO THE FIRST JET STREAK WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EWD FROM PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS SWD TO THE GULF COAST INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. WITH DIURNAL HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MLCAPE WILL LIKELY REACH 1000-2500 J/KG ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND MID ATLANTIC. WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE MORNING CONVECTION...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE SVR RISK WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OWING TO /1/ DIURNAL INTENSIFICATION OF MORNING CONVECTION.../2/ ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG ITS ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND /3/ AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MS INTO SERN LA. WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OVER 35 KT ACROSS THIS BROAD WARM SECTOR...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...SVR HAIL...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE GREATEST SVR RISK WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA COVERING PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AS 70-90 KT OF H5 FLOW OVERSPREADS THIS REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SECOND MID-LEVEL JET STREAK. DIURNAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED BY INSOLATION SUCCEEDING EARLIER-DAY ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF MS INTO SERN LA...AND AIDED BY GLANCING ASCENT FROM THE MID-LEVEL JET MAX. ATTENDANT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 50-70 KT WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SPREAD EWD INTO AL THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL...SOME POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. SOME RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION CAN EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY WHERE SFC WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY MORE BACKED AND IN PROXIMITY TO A FRONT-PRECEDING 35-40-KT H85 LLJ.

...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION...
RELATIVELY LOWER THETA-E WILL EXIST NORTHWARD WITH MIDDLE 50S SFC DEWPOINTS EXTENDING NWD INTO SERN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...WITH THE COMBINATION OF SOME SFC HEATING IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DMGG WINDS AND SVR HAIL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN OVERLYING STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN A MODEST LLJ...SOME TORNADO RISK MAY EVOLVE FROM PARTS OF MIDDLE TN TO THE OH VALLEY AND POSSIBLY LOWER MI...BUT THIS WILL BE CONTINGENT ON MORE APPRECIABLE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION FOR WHICH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.

..COHEN.. 04/28/2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16918
414. beell
12:00 AM GMT on April 29, 2014
wufu
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16918

Viewing: 464 - 414

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

Top of Page

About beell