Weather - March 3

By: beell , 10:56 AM GMT on March 03, 2014

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212. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
10:04 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
beell has created a new entry.
211. beell
5:27 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Not too shabby. 30% and 15% hatched area for significant hail was close to the large hail reports in Denton, TX and points east.




SPC Day 1 Outlook issued 06Z Thursday, April 3rd-Valid 12Z
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SPC 12Z Verification for April 3rd
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16609
210. beell
12:36 PM GMT on April 04, 2014

(click image for storm reports)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16609
209. beell
12:33 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Hi, bf.
As always, thanks again for keeping up with the linked watches, discusions, etc. There were some gorgeous cells in Oklahoma yesterday. It didn't go exactly as I thought-and that's a good thing!

Hey, Aug!
Speaking of gorgeous cells. Thanks. I always appreciate a nice set of twins.

Morning, 1900,
I kinda know what you mean. My attempts at virtual chasing were derailed by a traffic jam of work, travel, and family stuff. I never got out ahead of it either!

Is that an inflow band, Tf?. That would be my guess. Not a funnel. But it still conveys some danger since the inflow band leads into the wall cloud or the updraft! Some folks call them beaver tails. The Astro's should try to get a supercell or two to put in an apppearence at a few of their games. I would go.




Memphis, TN. May 25th, 2011
Image Credit: Mark Weber


Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16609
208. Thunderfan
6:22 AM GMT on April 04, 2014
Man, oh man! I thought fireworks after the game were cool! This is much better!

Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 795
207. 1900hurricane
3:06 AM GMT on April 04, 2014
I was out chasing today and really tried to get on that supercell with the good rotation crossing north Texas tonight, but I made it into the metroplex right at rush hour, so I wasn't able to get through the traffic to it. A shame really. I wish I didn't have that exam today, otherwise I would have set out much earlier and been in position for it probably.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
206. StAugustineFL
12:40 AM GMT on April 04, 2014
Not exactly my idea of the Texas two-step. Twin supercells.

Static radar loop.



And further north........man, I wonder how high those cloud tops east of bf are. Looks like a volcanic eruption.

Static image.

Member Since: March 8, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 802
205. Barefootontherocks
9:11 PM GMT on April 03, 2014
Click for text.


Here's a newer one. Maybe more significant tornado-wise.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0265
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/W-CNTRL MO...NERN OK...NWRN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 49...51...

VALID 032048Z - 032145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 49...51...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SVR THREAT PERSISTS WITH A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM WRN MO INTO
NERN OK. ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY DISCRETE TSTMS
THAT CAN EVOLVE WITHIN THIS LINE.

DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS POSITIONED ALONG FRONTAL SEGMENT
ACROSS WRN MO INTO NERN OK INCLUDES EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...THE
STRONGEST OF WHICH ARE LOCATED OVER ST. CLAIR/VERNON AND JASPER
COUNTIES MO AS OF 2040Z. TSTMS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED CONFINED TO
ALONG THE FRONT THUS FAR GIVEN THE RELATIVELY VEERED/FRONT-PARALLEL
NATURE OF THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS FOR A FEW DOMINANT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO EVOLVE FROM WITHIN
THIS LINE AND EXHIBIT AN ENHANCED RISK FOR TORNADOES. VWP DATA FROM
SGF CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAVORABLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH IS
POSITIONED ACROSS SWRN MO AND NWRN AR
. THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DMGG WINDS REMAINS HIGH AS WELL.

..ROGERS.. 04/03/201

Vis 3:02 pm cdt.


I can also see a horizon of storms N to S, east of me. Gonna go find a better vantage point than what I have and see what might be photoed.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 153 Comments: 18621
204. Barefootontherocks
7:56 PM GMT on April 03, 2014
Hello, SW TX... Not in slight risk area but may get a watch.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0263
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SW/CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 031930Z - 032100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF SW/CNTRL TX. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU. LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE /2000 J PER KG
MUCAPE/ AND MOIST /MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS/ DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS
WITH STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS. GIVEN EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE...A
WW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMMEDIATELY NEEDED BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/03/2014
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 153 Comments: 18621
203. Barefootontherocks
7:10 PM GMT on April 03, 2014
And then there were four.








Related MCDs begin at MCD 259. Click image below. Then click next to go forward to 260, 261...
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 153 Comments: 18621
202. Barefootontherocks
6:54 PM GMT on April 03, 2014
Been trying to post the two tornado watches. The blog's been a little slow to load. Now I can't get on the SPC site. Mbbiab

Aug,
That's funny! Started out as a txting typo between me and daughter. I've always called them Freudian typos. LPL may be related to wealth/unwealth. lpl Who knows? We've had some funny ones. Hot for hit. Lust for list, and the lust goes on... lpl.

Maybe will look for a stream.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 153 Comments: 18621
201. StAugustineFL
6:13 PM GMT on April 03, 2014
bf, one of the local radio stations airs a commercial for LPL Financial. Can't help but think of your "lpl" every time I hear it.

Not sure if y'all are interested in watching live chases but quite a few folks are honed in on SW MO streaming video.

Tulsa, OK WFO Visible Loop
Member Since: March 8, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 802
200. Barefootontherocks
5:01 PM GMT on April 03, 2014
LPL (an LOL typo now ingrained), Aug. And bl's best developed talent is
.
.
.
Severe wx!

Allrighty then. Today's outlook. Moderate risk, but the Big Hail risk is huge! Click here for hail graphic

Please click image below for detailed SPC severe weather probabilities as of 11:30 cdt.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OVER
MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN MO...MOST OF AR...NERN LA...NWRN MS...WRN
PARTS OF TN/KY...SRN IL...AND FAR SWRN IND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND OH
VALLEY SWD INTO ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

A POSITIVELY TILTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN ROCKIES
WILL ASSUME AN INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT AND EVENTUALLY FORM A CLOSED
MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION AS IT TRANSLATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID
MS VALLEY BY 04/12Z. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ATTENDED BY A MIDLEVEL JET
STREAK OF 70-90 KT AND A CORRIDOR OF 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 100-150
M / 12 HR.


AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN KS WILL DEVELOP TO
N-CNTRL MO/S-CNTRL IA BY 04/00Z PRIOR TO OCCLUDING OVER SRN WI BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. A TRAILING COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY AND MORE SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE MOVEMENT OF AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NWD THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY WILL BE MODULATED BY AN ONGOING MCS OVER THE REGION.
FINALLY...A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM SWRN OK INTO W-CNTRL TX WILL MIX
EWD TODAY...PROGRESSIVELY BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
NW.

--POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU EWD INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEYS AND LOWER OH
VALLEY.--


...LOWER MO AND OH VALLEYS SWD INTO ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE NWD-EXPANDING WARM SECTOR
EXHIBITED A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /LOWEST 100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS
OF AROUND 13 G PER KG/ SURMOUNTED BY AN EML WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES OF 8.0-8.5 C/KM. WHERE STRONGER DAYTIME
HEATING CAN OCCUR...THESE CONDITIONS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500-3000 J/KG.

AS OF 16Z...A COUPLE OF SEPARATE CONVECTIVE REGIMES WERE ONGOING: 1)
AN MCS WITH WELL-DEFINED MCV OVER THE OH VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED TSTM
CLUSTERS OCCURRING ALONG THE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO E-CNTRL
IL... AND 2) OPEN WARM SECTOR STORMS FROM SWRN/S-CNTRL MO SWWD INTO
SERN OK. ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL EXIST
WITH THE FORMER ACTIVITY AS IT PERSISTS OVER THE OH VALLEY TODAY.
MEANWHILE...THE LATTER REGIME WILL REMAIN COLOCATED WITH A MORE
STRONGLY SHEARED AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL BE QUITE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES AS
IT CONTINUES NEWD THROUGH PARTS OF SRN MO AND AR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.


IN THE WAKE OF THESE INITIAL STORMS...MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL TSTMS BY AFTERNOON FROM
THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TRIPLE POINT OVER WRN MO SWD ALONG THE
COLD FRONT INTO ERN OK...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE DRYLINE
INTO ERN TX
AS DCVA ATTENDANT TO THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO WHAT
IMPACT THE INITIAL STORMS WILL HAVE ON THIS SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT.
BUT IN GENERAL...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FEATURE A
FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES /SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONG/ AND DAMAGING WINDS
.

EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ALONG THE EWD/SEWD SURGING COLD FRONT WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY INTO LOWER OH VALLEY. THE
OVERNIGHT TORNADO THREAT REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN AS LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOT AS SUGGESTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENCE BAND DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMEN
T.

..MEAD/LEITMAN.. 04/03/2014

Later, talent gator.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 153 Comments: 18621
199. beell
1:54 PM GMT on April 03, 2014
LMAO, Aug! Thanks.

Nice dry punch working into OK at the edge of the moisture plume towards MO/AR as an aid to insolation/destabilization, extreme lapse rates.



Should be no issues in recharching areas that saw convection last night/this morning.

Main lead impulse showing on WV with the trough arcing across NM from SW to northeast at present.

Initial impulse stretching from the NW cor of KS to SW cor of OK.


Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16609
198. StAugustineFL
1:42 PM GMT on April 03, 2014
Quoting 197. beell:
Hi, bf and all.
In Beaumont this morning. Talent show at the school tonight. Be safe. Make yourselves at home.
Bye!


Good luck beell. Hope you come in first! lol.

Static image of N TX visible.

Member Since: March 8, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 802
197. beell
12:48 PM GMT on April 03, 2014
Hi, bf and all.
In Beaumont this morning. Talent show at the school tonight. Be safe. Make yourselves at home.
Bye!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16609
196. beell
11:02 AM GMT on April 03, 2014

12Z Day 1 Probabilistic Tornado (click for all Outlook graphics)

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR AR...CNTRL/S MO...S IL...W KY/TN...NW MS...FAR N LA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE WRN GULF COAST...

...SWATHS OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW WILL EJECT NEWD TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY FRI. A SUBTLE LEAD IMPULSE EVIDENT OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL PRECEDE THIS TROUGH AND SHOULD RACE NEWD TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY. AS THE FORMER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD...CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENSUE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY TO THE QUAD CITIES. ATTENDANT W/E-ORIENTED WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH NWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BUT ITS ADVANCEMENT WILL LIKELY BE SLOWED BY ABUNDANT CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FARTHER W...A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD ACROSS ERN OK INTO S-CNTRL TX....BEING PROGRESSIVELY OVERTAKEN FROM THE N BY A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE E/S THU NIGHT AND SHOULD REACH THE MID-MS VALLEY TO WRN GULF COAST BY 12Z/FRI.

...MIDWEST TO WRN GULF COAST...
A MESSY/COMPLEX SCENARIO IS ANTICIPATED WITH MORNING CONVECTION APPEARING POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF A BROAD WARM/MOIST SECTOR...ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND LOW-LEVEL WAA. TWO DISTINCT 700 MB JETS ATTENDANT TO THE LEAD IMPULSE AND THE MORE VIGOROUS UPSTREAM TROUGH SHOULD EVOLVE DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z/THU ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MO/MID-MS VALLEY. THESE FEATURES RENDER LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO SHOULD PLAY OUT AT PEAK HEATING INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH ERN/NRN EXTENT ACROSS THE MS/OH VALLEYS. RELATIVELY LARGE DISAGREEMENT IS ALSO EVIDENT IN 00Z CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE. NEVERTHELESS...A LARGE WARM/MOIST SECTOR...EXTENSIVE PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND STRONG LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO INHERITED MODERATE RISK ARE PREMATURE ATTM.

GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON EXISTS INVOF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU. HERE...PRONOUNCED SURFACE HEATING NEAR THIS INTERSECTION SHOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. AMIDST LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. AS CONVERGENCE/WIND FIELDS NEAR THE MERGING FRONT/DRYLINE STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S APPEARS LIKELY WITH RISK TRANSITIONING TO PREDOMINANTLY DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL INTENSITY WITH ERN EXTENT SHOULD BE MODULATED BY THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF EARLY-PERIOD CONVECTION NEAR THE WARM FRONT.

FARTHER S INTO ERN TX...
MORE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE DRYLINE WITH VEER-BACK-VEER WIND PROFILES A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR TO SUSTAINABILITY OF SUPERCELLS. FARTHER E TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE WITHIN A PLUME OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND GLANCING INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD AID IN A CLUSTER OF TSTMS FORMING THIS EVENING. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES IN INITIAL SUPERCELLS AS WELL. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN EXTENSIVE MCS MAY YIELD A PREDOMINANT AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK OVERNIGHT.

..GRAMS/KERR.. 04/03/2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16609
195. beell
10:53 AM GMT on April 03, 2014

(click image for storm reports)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16609
194. Barefootontherocks
3:07 AM GMT on April 03, 2014
Was stopping in to pat your back, blpl.
Kansas, Toto. I was so sure that southern dry line would pop a couple storms! It became clear - at dark, lmao - that was not to be. Oh, well. Come see, come saw. Whatever. Tomorrow is another day. You can't have everything. At least I have net.
:)

'Nite. Sleep well.

Oh, Ps. YW

Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 153 Comments: 18621
193. Thunderfan
1:14 AM GMT on April 03, 2014
Wise, very wise... :)
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 795
192. beell
1:10 AM GMT on April 03, 2014
Some guesses are better than others, Tf. The cap was certainly well advertised across the guidance spectrum. And sometimes you can skate by not saying too much.

Have not looked at Thursday since this morning and off to a late start tonight. I see the SPC did not change Thursday's MDT risk area on the afternoon Day 2-keeping it centered more over AR than MO. So I'll have to look and see what I'm missing.

(see "skate" rule above)


Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16609
191. Thunderfan
12:57 AM GMT on April 03, 2014
That guy that said this, "The cap is still with us tomorrow-so maybe SE KS? " seems to know what he's talking about. :)

So, where are the fireworks at (mainly) tomorrow? (I can see the day 2 SPC, but what do YOU think...)
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 795
190. beell
12:52 AM GMT on April 03, 2014
Hi, bf.
Good to see you working the weather! Thanks for the posts.

Mr. Edwards and/or Mr. Goss of the SPC perhaps said it best early this morning.
FARTHER E...NON-DRYLINE/NON-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN INDICATED IN FREE WARM SECTOR BY SOME OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SREF MEMBERS. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO APPEARS RATHER IMPROBABLE GIVEN STRENGTH OF EML AND LACK OF APPARENT BOUNDARY FOCI OUTSIDE FRONT/DRYLINE.

Today's activity always seemed it would be tied to a boundary-and so it was.

And beell last night:
The cap is still with us tomorrow-so maybe SE KS? The first warned cell fired here at least.
:)

The wf retreated far enough north to get out from under the warmer portions of the EML. Not so for the dryline. But it was worth keeping an eye open. Still 7-9°C over most of OK this evening per the RAP 700 mb chart up top.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16609
189. Barefootontherocks
8:36 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Tor watch, SE KS, N OK. (Add: AND SW MO)
Click for text and probabilities.

Related MCD

700mb temps 6-7 over OK and 5-6, KS. WhenWhatIf form(s), they will find food. Could be a Hot Time in the Old YouKnowWhat Tonight.


New MCD further east:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0249
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 PM CDT WED APR 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN AR/NORTHERN LA/MO BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHERN
MS/WESTERN TN/WESTERN KY/SOUTHERN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 022020Z - 022245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP/INCREASE AND BECOME SURFACE-BASED
ANYWHERE WITHIN A BROAD CORRIDOR FROM EASTERN AR/NORTHERN LA TO
NORTHERN MS...WESTERN PORTIONS OF TN/KY...AND SOUTHERN IL. WHILE THE
DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED PENDING
INCREASING SIGNS/CONFIDENCE OF STRONGER TSTM DEVELOPMENT. AT LEAST A
CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ROUGHLY WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
MO TO ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER OH RIVER INTO PARTS OF KY. TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...AMPLE CLOUD COVER HAS GENERALLY PERSISTED
WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS. IN SPITE OF THESE
CLOUDS...THE WARMING/MOISTENING NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. INITIALLY
ELEVATED SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED FROM EASTERN AR
NORTHEASTWARD TO AROUND THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RIVERS IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.

ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS...INCLUDING THE EXACT MAGNITUDE/EXTENT OF
ANY SEVERE RISK...ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITHIN A MOIST
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH MASS CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE IS MODEST
AWAY FROM THE WARM FRONT...THESE STORMS COULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
SURFACE BASED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR
SUPERCELLS GIVEN MORE THAN ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR. PROVIDED THIS
SCENARIO...SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WOULD
BE POSSIBLE.

..GUYER/HART.. 04/02/2014
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 153 Comments: 18621
188. Barefootontherocks
5:54 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
I'm looking for a storm or two popping in the warm sector under the influence of previous storm activity. Other than that, the dryline is creeping. Pretty well west of forecast for 1300 cdt. Conus short term surface forecast. Maybe southern end has a chance of one or two storms also, late eve. Will keep an eye open.

Have a good afternoon, bl and -ites.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 153 Comments: 18621
187. Barefootontherocks
5:45 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Kind of an interesting switcherooni on the tor probs since 0800

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT WED APR 02 2014

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK/KS AND NORTH
TX...EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...

...OK/KS...
A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING FOR TODAY...WITH
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO SUBTLE FORCING MECHANISMS AND RATHER
WIDESPREAD CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. THE SURFACE DRYLINE
WILL BECOME FOCUSED THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN OK...INTERSECTING A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ROUGHLY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER.
STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/WESTERN OK AND SOUTHEAST KS
LATER TODAY. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z OPERATIONAL AND MESOSCALE MODEL
SOLUTIONS POINT TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN OK/SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG
EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK AND INTO NORTH TX IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONAL RISK REMAINS IN THIS ZONE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP/PERSIST.

...AR/MS/TN/SERN MO/WRN KY...
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS INCREASING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHERN AR...IN A REGION OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/THERMAL ADVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN AR INTO WESTERN TN/KY AND SOUTHEAST MO
DURING THE EVENING. DUE TO THE WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS IN THIS
REGION...THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION WHETHER MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
OVERDONE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS. BUT
NEVERTHELESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY 00Z SHOW SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL
SHEAR THAT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STORMS AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED TORNADOES. HAVE ADJUSTED THE OUTLOOK AREA TO INCLUDE MORE
OF THIS REGION IN CASE THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS.

...E CENTRAL MO/SOUTHERN IL...
A CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING THIS MORNING IN
THE STL VICINITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN IL. THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY
CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

..HART/BROYLES.. 04/02/2014
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 153 Comments: 18621
186. beell
1:15 PM GMT on April 02, 2014

13Z Day 1 Probabilistic Tornado (click for full outlook discussion and graphics

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT WED APR 02 2014

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO MID-SOUTH REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRINCIPAL UPPER-AIR INFLUENCE ON CONVECTION WILL BE COMPLEX SYNOPTIC-SCALE CYCLONE WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS...EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM NRN ROCKIES SWWD ACROSS CA. LEADING/EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAX NOW OVER ID SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EWD...WHILE SEVERAL BASAL SHORTWAVES PIVOT CYCLONICALLY BETWEEN SRN CA AND BLACK HILLS. BY 00Z...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHOULD TAKE SHAPE AND EXTEND FROM ERN MT ACROSS UT TO SRN CA. BY 12Z...500-MB TROUGH STILL WILL BE POSITIVELY TILTED BUT NOT AS MUCH...WHILE LOCATED FROM ND SSWWD OVER ERN CO TO SERN AZ. BY THAT TIME MAIN VORTICITY MAX SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/NERN NM.

AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED MAIN CYCLONE STILL OVER SERN CO...WITH SEGMENTED WARM FRONT SEWD OVER WRN/CENTRAL OK TO WRN AR. DRYLINE WAS DRAWN FROM CDS AREA SWWD ACROSS WRN PERMIAN BASIN THEN SEWD INTO NRN COAHUILA. DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL THROUGH AFTN FROM WRN OK TO W-CENTRAL TX...BY MIXING EWD OVER TX AND BACKING NWWD ACROSS OK. DRYLINE SHOULD SHIFT NWWD ENOUGH TO INTERSECT NWD-MOVING WARM FRONT BY 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME INVOF KS/OK BORDER...BETWEEN DDC...GAG AND AVK. OVERNIGHT...SFC LOW WILL TRAVEL ALONG CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAROCLINIC ZONE TO S-CENTRAL/SERN KS...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD INTO NWRN OK. WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NWD OVER SERN KS AND SRN MO.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND/OR EVENING...WITH VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL...SVR GUSTS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE FROM ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION.

MAIN CONCERNS INVOLVE TIMING/COVERAGE OF TSTMS. EXPECT WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING...ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED/SUB-MESOSCALE EFFECTS...IN PRESENCE OF STG EML-RELATED CAPPING AS OBSERVED ON 12Z MAF/OUN/FWD RAOBS. THIS MAKES TSTM DEVELOPMENT VERY UNCERTAIN...IN WARM-SECTOR ENVIRONMENT THAT OTHERWISE STRONGLY FAVORS MULTI-HAZARD SUPERCELLS. ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED ALONG DRYLINE WITH SLY WINDS PROGGED TO ITS IMMEDIATE W...WHILE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MUCH OR ALL OF SFC FRONT TO REMAIN CAPPED AS WELL. DIURNAL TSTM INITIATION INVOF DRYLINE AND WARM FRONT MAY BE VERY SPARSE...AND SOME POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR NONE ALONG THOSE BOUNDARIES UNTIL AFTER DARK. FARTHER E...NON-DRYLINE/NON-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN INDICATED IN FREE WARM SECTOR BY SOME OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SREF MEMBERS. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO APPEARS RATHER IMPROBABLE GIVEN STRENGTH OF EML AND LACK OF APPARENT BOUNDARY FOCI OUTSIDE FRONT/DRYLINE.

THAT STATED...UNCONDITIONAL SVR PROBABILITIES ARE BEING MAINTAINED DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR ANY TSTMS THAT DO FORM TO EVOLVE INTO SUBSTANTIALLY DAMAGING SUPERCELLS. BY LATE AFTN...SFC DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD ACT IN TANDEM WITH STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...ANTECEDENT BOUNDARY-LAYER MOIST ADVECTION...AND RESULTANT 60S F SFC DEW POINTS...TO YIELD 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE IN MOIST SECTOR. INCREASING HIGH-CLOUD COVER WITH SWD EXTENT...ALREADY NOTED IN IR IMAGERY...WILL RESTRICT HEATING AND RELATED LIFT INTO W-CENTRAL TX AND PERHAPS SRN OK...THOUGH AREA WHERE NRN EDGE OF HIGH-CLOUD CANOPY CROSSES DRYLINE OVER NW TX/SWRN OK MAY BE ONE POTENTIAL INITIATION ZONE...IN ADDITION TO TRIPLE-POINT AREA. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...MRGL DURING EARLY-MID AFTN...WILL STRENGTHEN WITH TIME INTO EARLY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FROM ABOUT 00-03Z FOR LLJ-ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS TO YIELD 300-400 J/KG EFFECTIVE SRH...WHILE LIFTED PARCELS STILL ARE SFC-BASED AMIDST LARGE CAPE. THIS FITS WELL-KNOWN ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS FOR EVENING/EARLY NOCTURNAL TORNADO PRODUCTION...IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP.

...AR/MID-SOUTH REGION...
ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS MAY DEVELOP TODAY AND THIS EVENING IN WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR LOCATED OVER AR...PERHAPS MOVING INTO PORTIONS NWRN MS AND WRN TN. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE LOCATED ALONG ERN RIM OF EML...AND AS SUCH...NOT SUBJECT TO SUCH STG CAPPING FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER PARCELS THAT MAKES POTENTIAL SO CONDITIONAL FARTHER W. HOWEVER...GIVEN ITS INITIALLY ELEVATED/ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED NATURE...SPECIFIC TIMING/LOCATION FOR SUCH CONVECTION TO BECOME SVR ALSO IS UNCERTAIN.

AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION WILL BECOME FAVORABLY UNSTABLE FROM MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN...WHILE VERTICAL WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT PRONOUNCED VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT. AS SUCH...CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWS...WITH FULL SPECTRUM OF SVR POSSIBLE...INCLUDING RISK OF TORNADOES. ANY ACTIVITY FROM FARTHER W THAT CAN PERSIST INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND GROW UPSCALE AMIDST STG LOW-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ALSO MAY MOVE INTO THIS REGION LATE TONIGHT. BUOYANCY WILL DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT AS MORE LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES EMANATE FROM LOWER-THETAE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REGIME.

...LOWER MO VALLEY REGION...
ISOLATED/MRGL SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING WITH CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS OVER THIS REGION...PER 12Z SGF RAOB YIELDING ELEVATED MUCAPE APCHG 2500 J/KG AND 50-55 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE. TONIGHT...INTENSIFYING LLJ AND RELATED WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL YIELD POTENTIAL FOR MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION...AMIDST STRENGTHENING DEEP-SHEAR CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ATTENDANT HAIL RISK.

..EDWARDS/GOSS.. 04/02/2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16609
185. beell
12:40 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
I hear ya, Aug. My Mom moved to KC last summer to be nearer to surviving relatives and kin.

Close to KC looks like ground zero for the triple point intersection. I assume the SPC is giving more credence to a stronger LLJ farther south in the open warm sector-which makes good sense.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16609
184. StAugustineFL
12:12 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Morning beell

"Ugly looking in Missouri.

Perhaps a couple of areas of higher risk for tornadoes on Thursday. Certainly not the only areas to watch in the warm sector.

1. Near the synoptic triple point in NW Missouri and to the east along the warm front."


------------------------------------------------- -----

I have many family and friends peppered along the I-70 corridor from KC to STL. I'll be rooting against this one. :)
Member Since: March 8, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 802
183. beell
11:50 AM GMT on April 02, 2014

04/02 06Z GFS SB CAPE-Valid 4PM CDT Thursday


04/02 06Z GFS 500 mb Winds-Valid 7PM CDT Thursday

Ugly looking in Missouri.

Perhaps a couple of areas of higher risk for tornadoes on Thursday. Certainly not the only areas to watch in the warm sector.

1. Near the synoptic triple point in NW Missouri and to the east along the warm front.
2.Less confidence over NE OK/SE KS/NW AR/SW MO where there may be a slight surface inflection on the last vestiges of the dryline and its intersection with the cold front boundaries. These two areas are not separated by much distance so it could resolve into one larger risk area straddling the KS/MO border and on to the east along the warm front.

SPC is quite a bit farther south and east with the higher risk. A big enough difference to bring a large amount of doubt into what I have posted.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16609
182. beell
10:57 AM GMT on April 02, 2014
Morning, Kori.

The front should provide at least some fun when it rolls through SE LA around lunchtime (?) on Friday. Overall wind profiles may be a bit on the weak side-with the muscle to this system way up north. But 1500 J/kg of CAPE and strong lapse rates should yield some hail.

Drive someone else's car!


Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16609
181. KoritheMan
10:35 AM GMT on April 02, 2014
Was kinda hoping for some damaging winds in the BR metro with the approaching trough on Friday. The GFS and NAM guidance suggests that could happen, but it also suggests the greatest instability will be north of the area. Unfortunately.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20571
180. beell
10:32 AM GMT on April 02, 2014
Hatched area within the Day 1 Probabilistic Hail Graphic should also serve to delineate the greatest tornado risk.


12Z Probabilistic Hail (click image for all Outlook graphics)

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT WED APR 02 2014

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM KS/OK/N TX EWD INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD POSITIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES WITH SUBSTANTIAL SWLY FLOW ALOFT PRECEDING IT ACROSS THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RISE IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING E OF THE MS RIVER AS THE NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH MOVES INTO QUEBEC. IN ADDITION TO THE MAIN NRN JET...AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM JET WITH OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO AFFECT TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MAINLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIST WED MORNING ACROSS NWRN TX/SWRN OK...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR. A STRONG SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN KS INTO MO N OF THE WARM FRONT.

LATER IN THE DAY...SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD AND THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NWWD INTO SERN CO. MID 60S F BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE NWD BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM NWRN OK INTO ERN KS BY 00Z. A DRYLINE WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY FROM CNTRL TX INTO WRN OK WITH TRIPLE POINT AROUND NWRN OK AT 00Z.

HEATING AND MOISTENING WILL LEAD TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...AND WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AND BACKS. THIS WILL CREATE A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS.

...SRN KS INTO OK AND NWRN TX DURING THE DAY...
STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3500 J/KG WILL MATERIALIZE S OF THE WARM FRONT AND E OF THE DRYLINE OWING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S F. WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING FARTHER W...THE DRYLINE WILL TEND TO REMAIN STATIONARY OR BACK SLIGHTLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT CAPPING WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY...BUT CIN WILL BE ERODED IN A NARROW ZONE OF DEEPER MIXING NEAR THE DRYLINE FROM NWRN TX ACROSS WRN OK AND TO THE TRIPLE POINT OVER NWRN OK. DAYTIME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DRYLINE STORMS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER NWRN OK AND EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SRN/SERN KS DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE WARM FRONT.

...AR DURING THE DAY...
SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST A BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM BY MIDDAY ACROSS AR AS MOISTURE RETURNS NEWD WITH A 40 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT AS WELL AS COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES COULD FAVOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THIS THREAT WILL BE A BIT CONDITIONAL AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY COOL BUT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LFC NEAR 700 MB.

...ERN KS...ERN OK...MO...AR OVERNIGHT...
HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS FAR NRN OK OR SRN KS. HERE...LIFTING OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE PERSISTENT AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVEN WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS LATE...HAIL AND WIND WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER SE INTO MO AND AR...THE BROAD WARM SECTOR AND AMPLE SHEAR WILL CONDITIONALLY FAVOR A FEW SEVERE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 04/02/2014


06Z Day 2 Probabilistic Severe (click for all Outlook graphics)

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT WED APR 02 2014

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOW-MID MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY WITH DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEYS INTO THE WRN TN AND OH VALLEYS.

...SYNOPSIS...

MODELS SOLUTIONS HAVE CONVERGED ON TIMING...AMPLITUDE AND GENERAL CHARACTER OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY ON THURSDAY. SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BENEATH CORRIDOR OF INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE. BY THURSDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE SFC LOW SITUATED OVER SERN KS SWWD THROUGH NWRN OK AND NWRN TX. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD OVERTAKING THE DRYLINE SITUATED ACROSS OK AND TX. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE FRONT SHOULD STRETCH FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA SWWD THROUGH WRN TN...LA AND THE TX COASTAL AREA. WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL/NRN MO INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD DURING THE DAY.

...ERN SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY...

VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TAKE ON A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT EJECTS ENEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY LATER THURSDAY. RICHER GULF MOISTURE WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY ADVECTED INTO MUCH OF ERN TX AND LA AND WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD. THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE LIKELY. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR MOST OF WARM SECTOR WILL SUFFER FROM EARLY CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING EXCEPT FARTHER NORTH WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM NRN MO INTO THE OH VALLEY. A FEW BREAKS IN THE MULTI-LAYER CLOUD DECK SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MODEST WARMING AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BECOME PROBABLE ACROSS THE LOWER-MIDDLE MS VALLEY WARM SECTOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CAP WEAKENS WHERE STRENGTHENING LLJ WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE STORMS MAY INITIALLY BE DISCRETE IN CHARACTER...AND VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL HODORAPHS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE FARTHER FROM ERN KS/WRN MO...ERN OK AND POSSIBLY INTO ERN TX AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE...AND SOME STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND.

...OH VALLEY REGION...

MOSTLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY...PRIMARILY WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE...THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND NEWD ADVECTION OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IN THIS REGION SHOULD DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS DEEP LAYER WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF MCS THAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..DIAL.. 04/02/2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16609
179. beell
3:00 AM GMT on April 02, 2014
Hi, bf. Running late and tired.

Some bignificant hail!
:)
0126 250
11 SW NEWCASTLE YOUNG TX
3309 9888 (FWD)



(click image for storm reports)

The cap is still with us tomorrow-so maybe SE KS? Missouri may get whacked on Thursday-from the SW corner to the NE into IL. Slapped a surface chart at the bottom. May be close to the setup for tomorrow afternoon.

And for the record, the afternoon Day 2.


1730Z Day 2 Probabilistic Outlook

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE APR 01 2014

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED THRU WED NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE S CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BELT OF WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC WILL REMAIN PROMINENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BEYOND. WITHIN THIS REGIME...THE REMNANTS OF A GRADUALLY WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW /NOW DIGGING INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST/ APPEAR LIKELY TO TURN EASTWARD/EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE... MID-LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS INTO THE APPALACHIANS REGION...IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN IMPULSE...A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF COLD AIR HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THE FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SLOWING WESTERN FLANK IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY STALL...BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...BUT ONLY MODEST LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN JUST HOW QUICKLY /AND HOW FAR NORTH/ THE COLD CENTRAL PLAINS BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFIES.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT A CONTINUING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OFF A MODIFYING WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FINALLY ADVECT SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BENEATH RESIDUALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...THIS PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIZABLE CAPE...AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

...S CNTRL PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU... CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITHIN A LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME... ABOVE THE COLD SURFACE BASED AIR...ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. SOME SEVERE HAIL THREAT MAY LINGER WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY AS IT DEVELOPS EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...MID-LEVEL CAPPING BENEATH MID/UPPER RIDGING PROBABLY WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREAS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MOST GUIDANCE DOES APPEAR TO INDICATE THAT SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IN THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BENEATH DIFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORM INITIATION EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR...MORE LIKELY...EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE RETREATING SURFACE FRONT AND STRENGTHENING DRY LINE...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS INCREASING CONCERNING EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL BE POSITIONED.

REGARDLESS...IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT... POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST FOR INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO CONSOLIDATE/GROW UPSCALE INTO A SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. BASED LARGELY ON THE ECMWF AND NAM...THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

..KERR.. 04/01/2014


WPC Surface Analysis-Valid 7PM CDT, Wednesday
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16609
178. Barefootontherocks
12:31 AM GMT on April 02, 2014
Click image for text.


^bps tomorrow.
:)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 153 Comments: 18621
177. beell
10:25 AM GMT on April 01, 2014

12Z Day 1 Outlook (click image for complete Outlook graphics)

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT TUE APR 01 2014

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS INTO WRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NWRN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE ERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO CANADA. MEANWHILE...A LARGER AND LOWER-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH JET MAX NOSING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE TRAILING FRONT RETURNING NWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS AR...OK AND NWRN TX DURING THE DAY. SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F TO SPREAD NWD...WITH 62-64 F DEWPOINTS INTO NRN OK BY WED MORNING.

STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR IN THE DRIER AIR ACROSS WRN AND NWRN TX...WHICH WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT...SIGNIFICANT WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR WITH A 50-KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WITH LIFT FOCUSED OVER ERN KS AND MO...WITH SCATTERED STORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE.

...NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK...
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR W OF THE DRYLINE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F RETURNING NWWD AS SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BROADLY INCREASES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. WEAK HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY AS THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH DEPARTS...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS NWRN TX. THEREFORE...WHILE MODERATE INSTABILITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED...WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MORE CONDITIONAL. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO MAY BE FOR A LINE OF TCU TO FORM ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE RETURN/RETREATING DRYLINE...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING AS THIS AIR MIXES INTO THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. THE MAIN ISSUE TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE LACK OF PROLONGED FORCING AND LIKELY MIXING OF THE MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES FURTHER DURING THE EVENING...CAPPING WILL EXIST...THUS STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.



...ERN KS INTO WRN MO... WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY AFTERNOON FROM ERN KS INTO CNTRL MO...BUT THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL BE NON-SEVERE WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...STRONGER LIFT AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL NWD SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING OVER ERN KS AND MOVING INTO WRN MO. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AS WELL AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL FAVOR SEVERE HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR APPEARS TO BE FROM MANHATTAN KS TO COLUMBIA MO.

..JEWELL/COHEN.. 04/01/2014


06Z Day 2 Probabilistic Severe (click for all Outlook graphics)

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE APR 01 2014

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY AREAS...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL CONTINUE SSEWD THROUGH CA BEFORE TURNING EWD INTO THE SWRN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY AND EMERGING ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECEDING THIS FEATURE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MOST LIKELY EXTEND FROM A LEE LOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH NRN OK INTO SRN/ERN KS...SRN MO INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY LIFT A MODEST DISTANCE NWD DURING THE DAY. DRYLINE WILL SET UP FROM WRN TX NWD THROUGH WRN OK AND MIX EWD. NRN END OF THE DRYLINE WILL INTERSECT THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS EXTREME NRN OK OR SCNTRL KS.

...OK THROUGH NRN TX AND ERN KS...

RICHER GULF MOISTURE WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH WARM SECTOR BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE/ ACROSS THE OK AND TX WARM SECTOR. WARMER AIR AT THE BASE OF THE EML WILL LIKELY CAP THE WARM SECTOR TO SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION MUCH OF THE DAY. ZONE OF DEEP MIXING AND POSSIBLE DRYLINE BULGE MAY DEVELOP OVER WRN OK WITHIN CORRIDOR OF STRONGER 700 MB FLOW. INITIATION OF ISOLATED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS WRN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THESE STORMS WILL INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP ENEWD INTO THE MOIST AXIS ACROSS CNTRL OK WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STRONGLY UNSTABLE...BUT ALSO MORE CAPPED. GIVEN ONLY MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTH OF CAP IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR...THE EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ESPECIALLY WITH SWD DISTANCE INTO TX.

SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /40-50 KT/ AS WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. HODOGRAPHS WILL ALSO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN A SMALL WINDOW AS THE LLJ INCREASES DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT INITIATE WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH FROM ERN KS INTO MO DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THETA-E ADVECTION AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG STRENGTHENING LLJ. ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN INITIAL THREAT...BUT ANY STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

...LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGION...

WARMER TEMPERATURES AT EML BASE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CAP TO SURFACE BASED STORMS OVER A PORTION OF THIS REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION IN THIS AREA ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE ROOTED AT THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. IT IS LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS MO WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CONVEYOR BELT...SEVERE THREAT IS MORE CONDITIONAL GIVEN CAPPING CONCERNS WHICH COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG ERN EDGE OF THE WARMER EML IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BUT MAY POSE A THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

..DIAL.. 04/01/2014



(click image for all 0730Z Day 3 Outlook graphics)

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT TUE APR 01 2014

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY...WRN TN VALLEY AND A PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY ON THURSDAY. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE LOW SITUATED OVER SERN KS SWWD THROUGH NRN OK AND NWRN TX. THIS FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD OVERTAKING THE DRYLINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE FRONT SHOULD STRETCH FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA SWWD THROUGH WRN TN...LA AND THE TX COASTAL AREA. WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CNTRL OR NRN MO AND THE OH VALLEY WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD DURING THE DAY.

...ERN SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER-MID MS...WRN TN AND OH VALLEYS...

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT ON THURSDAY WITH DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEYS INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TAKE ON A POSITIVE TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT EJECTS ENEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY. A MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PRECEDE THIS FEATURE. FORCING ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM INITIATION FROM ERN OK THROUGH CNTRL/ERN TX. HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS A PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR WHICH COMBINED WITH DIABATIC WARMING SUGGEST THE CAP SHOULD WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM AR INTO SRN AND CNTRL MO. THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGION AND SHIFT EWD INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. MID-UPPER JET STREAK ATTENDING THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. ANY STORMS INITIATING IN WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND LIKELY. POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS...TN AND OH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.

..DIAL.. 04/01/2014

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16609
176. beell
2:04 AM GMT on April 01, 2014
Quoting 169. 1900hurricane:
Also, Thursday looks like the day to me. Wednesday very well could be fighting an uphill battle with capping.


So Thursday it is for you! Both days are kinda similar. Stronger kinematics on Thursday-except for the LLJ. Maybe still a minor issue here as the ridge over the SE eases off to the east-veering the jet and following the high out.

We may see a MDT risk on Thursday but N of TX. Just take your original Wednesday long-range (before things started to slow down) and shift it straight north.

All three frames are valid at 21Z on Wednesday Thursday and maybe decently correct..
Pick your temp chart. The EML is probably based below 700 mb but both seem to point toward a stronger cap for us. Big hail still seems to be a sure thing.

I don't think you can rule out a dryline tornado or two near the Red River.


03/31 15Z SREF 700 mb temps


03/31 15Z SREF 850 mb temps


03/31 15Z SREF 500 mb heights, winds

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16609
175. beell
12:36 AM GMT on April 01, 2014
Hi, bf! Look familiar?



Jon Davies



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0238
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SERN MN...ERN IA...FAR WRN WI...NERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 312343Z - 010215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...AN ARC OF CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MN TO NRN MO WITHIN THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF A DEEP CYCLONE WHOSE MID-LEVEL CENTER IS POSITIONED OVER SWRN MN PER RECENT MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY. THE PRESENCE OF 35-50-KT LOW/MID-LEVEL SLYS PER REGIONAL VWP DATA WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN INVOF A COLD-FRONT-OVERTAKEN DRYLINE FROM SERN MN TO ERN IA AND NERN MO...AND STORMS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR COULD PRODUCE SPORADIC DMGG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. FARTHER N...ASCENT ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CNTRL MN TO W-CNTRL WI N OF MSP WILL ALSO REMAIN A POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WHERE SFC WINDS ARE RELATIVELY MORE BACKED TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THE PAUCITY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- I.E. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S -- SHOULD KEEP BUOYANCY SUFFICIENTLY SMALL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO PREVENT A GREATER SVR RISK FROM EVOLVING. NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL BE DETRIMENTAL FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS AS STORMS APPROACH/CROSS THE MS RIVER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 03/31/2014








Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16609
174. beell
12:26 AM GMT on April 01, 2014
Upper cold pool with the mid-level low (almost stacked), surface heating in the dry punch-AOA 60°F resulting in strong lapse rates and large values of 0-3 km SRH around a 992 mb surface low (backed surface winds).

Low 50's for the dewpoints and 500 J/kg of CAPE.

Some low-topped supercells and tornadoes were the end result.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16609
173. Barefootontherocks
12:17 AM GMT on April 01, 2014
Yes. Dryline.
:)


Ps. Wow. Line of storms formed in NE OK I can see from here. All kidding aside, I think the dryline will pop late Wednesday afternoon/early eve. Few storms, maybe, but they could be powerful.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 153 Comments: 18621
172. Barefootontherocks
12:14 AM GMT on April 01, 2014
Blizzard tor warnings. Gads. Any hope winter will end tomorrow in Dakotas?

Nice early a.m. storm here - With thunder and lightning and rain instead of snow. Several puffy wannabees in otherwise clear afternoon/eve skies. Low 80s. Haven't seen that in a while. Watchin'... :)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 153 Comments: 18621
171. beell
11:36 PM GMT on March 31, 2014

(click either graphic for discussion(s)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16609
170. beell
11:26 PM GMT on March 31, 2014
TorBliz Warning or Bliztor Warning!

I don't think the tornado touched down in an area under a blizzard warning (winter weather advisory) but there were tor warns within the blizzard warning. Red line in the bottom graphic is the MN/SD state line.

1 of 4 tornado warnings

TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 408 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHEAST
OF TAUNTON...AND MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO....
=================================================

Blizzard Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
401 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

MNZ071-072-SDZ040-010515-
/O.CON.KFSD.BZ.W.0007.140401T0000Z-140401T1200Z/
LINCOLN-LYON-BROOKINGS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TYLER...HENDRICKS...LAKE BENTON...
IVANHOE...MARSHALL...BROOKINGS
401 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM CDT TUESDAY...



Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16609
169. 1900hurricane
9:30 PM GMT on March 31, 2014
Also, Thursday looks like the day to me. Wednesday very well could be fighting an uphill battle with capping.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
168. 1900hurricane
9:07 PM GMT on March 31, 2014
So, I'm scrapping Wednesday because it turns out I have an exam then too. I might be able to venture out a little ways Thursday afternoon after that exam if things look good, but I'm probably not going to have a good chasing opportunity this week. Ugh.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11667
167. beell
11:57 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
No sense getting ahead of ourselves!



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...

/DAY 4/

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS IT EJECTS ENEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY REGION THURSDAY...BUT SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES PERSIST. A MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PRECEDE THIS FEATURE. FORCING ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE AND HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT IN WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM INITIATION FROM ERN OK THROUGH ERN TX. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEYS WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINES/BOWS.

/DAY 5/

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT...BUT THE LLJ AND STRONGER FORCING WILL TEND TO LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE RICHER MOIST AXIS WITH TIME. WHILE A SEVERE RISK AREA WILL LIKELY BE INCLUDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS FOR A PORTION OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE QUALITY OF THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AT THIS TIME.

/DAY 6 AND BEYOND/

PREDICTABILITY DECREASES IN THIS TIME FRAME.

..DIAL.. 03/31/2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16609
166. Thunderfan
11:32 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting 165. beell:
Morning, Tf.
18 months of winter? Or was it the end of hurricane season 6 months early, lol!

An outbreak "far from certain" seems a safe enough guess at this point. Perhaps we know by the end of the day. Chasers will have enough to keep them happy in any case.


I have no doubt there will be twisters and we'll see some good footage of them dropping down. My question is will it be an outbreak? Definite chance of that, but "far from certain".

I like your dryline photo there. Very interesting.
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 795
165. beell
11:29 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Morning, Tf.
18 months of winter? Or was it the end of hurricane season 6 months early, lol!

An outbreak "far from certain" seems a safe enough guess at this point. Perhaps we know by the end of the day. Chasers will have enough to keep them happy in any case.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16609
164. beell
11:24 AM GMT on March 31, 2014

A vis capture from May 26th, 2008-No tornado here this day but it did produce some damaging baseball sized hail.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16609
163. beell
11:13 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
A dryline bulge:
Stronger winds with a westerly component advance the dryline. A semi-localized uptick in these winds can advance the dryline out ahead of the rest of the boundary. Storms can form here where ascent and surface convergence are enhanced. In addition, these storms are out ahead in the clean inflow (not blocked by other cells on the boundary).


(click image for all 0730Z Day 3 Outlook graphics)

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON SIMILAR SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST...THOUGH SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH THE GFS BEING THE SLOWER SOLUTION. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ADVANCE SSEWD THROUGH CA BEFORE TURNING EWD INTO THE SWRN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. PRECEDING THIS FEATURE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MOST LIKELY EXTEND FROM CNTRL/NRN OK NEWD THROUGH MO INTO THE OH VALLEY. AS IS TYPICAL...THE SPECTRAL SOLUTIONS ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY THAN THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND PREFER THE MORE SWD PLACEMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF CP HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. DRYLINE WILL SET UP FROM WRN TX NWD THROUGH WRN OK WHERE IT WILL INTERSECT THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. OVERNIGHT A PACIFIC FRONT ATTENDING THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY MERGE WITH THE DRYLINE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WRN TX.

...OK THROUGH NRN TX AND ERN KS...

RICHER GULF MOISTURE WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH WARM SECTOR BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE/ ACROSS THE OK AND TX WARM SECTOR. WARMER AIR AT THE BASE OF THE EML WILL LIKELY CAP THE WARM SECTOR TO SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION MUCH OF THE DAY. ZONE OF DEEP MIXING AND POSSIBLE DRYLINE BULGE MAY DEVELOP OVER SWRN OK/NWRN TX WITHIN CORRIDOR OF STRONGER 700 MB FLOW. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL BE BETWEEN THE DRYLINE BULGE AND THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /40-50 KT/ AS WELL AS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. HODOGRAPHS WILL ALSO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOSCYCLONES AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN A SMALL WINDOW AS THE LLJ INCREASES DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS /SHOULD THEY DEVELOP/ WOULD PROBABLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES.

OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM NRN OK INTO KS. ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

...LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGION...

WAMER TEMPERATURES AT THE BASE OF THE EML WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CAP TO SURFACE BASED STORMS OVER A PORTION OF THIS REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN THIS AREA ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT...BUT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE ROOTED AT THE SURFACE. IT IS LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CONVEYOR BELT...SEVERE THREAT IS MORE CONDITIONAL GIVEN CAPPING CONCERNS.

..DIAL.. 03/31/2014
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16609
162. Thunderfan
11:05 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Hey Beell - tornado outbreak far from certainty I see, but consider it has been all polar vortex, ice, snow, cold, blah, blah, blah for at least 18 months straight it seems, I am very glad to be reading and discussing SPC outlooks for t-storms and twisters.

Not to mention, after today, I see at least four straight days of 80's in my neck of the woods. Spring at last!

Great photo there BF. I remember seeing it before as well. Imagine all the shots of it had it happened in today's world. LLAP
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