Weather - September 23

By: beell , 10:20 AM GMT on September 23, 2013

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31. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
5:04 PM GMT on October 05, 2013
beell has created a new entry.
30. beell
11:35 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Hi, shore. Just saw that :-)

If congress was run as a free enterprise business I don't think the "customers" would place much value on the quality of their services.




Hi, bf.
Thanks (from mom 'n 'em)!
Got a date with a mexican margarita tonight.
Time for a weather blog break and study up on mid October weather.

See ya'll soon.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
29. Barefootontherocks
11:21 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Hey, shore.
:)

Oh bl,
Thanks.
Oops on me. lol All good wishes for her life in Missouri.

Big North Wind will be a guest late this eve. Only 60s here tomorrow - but back up to 80s soon. Nice.

Have a great weekend. (to shore also)
:)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19230
28. shoreacres
11:08 PM GMT on October 04, 2013
Here's just a little humor from NWSAnchorage - got to love those guys!
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
27. beell
12:00 AM GMT on October 04, 2013
You do the same. The move has been in the works for a while and is unrelated to wx. Her side of the family/kin hail from them parts.

See ya.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
26. Barefootontherocks
11:58 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
FWIW, I think the moderate risk area will shift a bit south by southwest.

Oops for Mom. I do understand her POV. You get to feeling kinda like a sitting duck here in central Okla.

Good to see you. Not to worry about the weather. Tomorrow a.m. a better time to look anyway. Enjoy your evening!
:)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19230
25. beell
11:57 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
You got it, bf. And you get bonus points for using the "archive" format.
:)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
24. beell
11:48 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
It's the clam before the strom, Mark...

Hiya, bf!
Wouldn't ya' know it. After ducking and dodging central OK spring severe, my Mom moved to NW Missouri last week.
Sheesh!

Trying to find a reason/motivation to check/post on Karen and the MDT risk. No luck yet. Talked to her (Mom) already this week about the severe potential. So I'm good, lol.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
23. Barefootontherocks
11:36 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
(click for today's 1230 Day 2)


I see yours and raise you ten bucks.
:)

Ps. I forgot how to make a graphic link. I need a /a in there somewhere, I think. LOOOOL... Went back and looked at a blog comment from June 2. I think I've got it... By jove, I've got it.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 157 Comments: 19230
22. NavarreMark
3:05 PM GMT on October 03, 2013
Its quiet.

Too quiet.
Member Since: September 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3981
21. beell
10:26 AM GMT on October 03, 2013
Slightly unrelated-A slower evolution of the trough and cold front should be a factor in keeping 97L on a more northerly track for a longer period of time.



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NEB...IA...SRN
MN...WI...NWRN MO...ERN KS...NWRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGESTS A SLOWER
EVOLUTION TO THE UPPER TROUGH
THAN COMPARED TO THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
NAM MODEL WHICH IS FARTHER E WITH THE COLD FRONT AND DEEPER WITH THE
UPPER LOW VALID AT 00Z. FOR THIS OUTLOOK...THE SLOWER SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED.

DURING THE DAY...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER WRN KS AND
INTO CNTRL NEB...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM FSD/SUX EWD
ACROSS NRN IA OR SRN MN AND INTO WRN WI. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE
REINFORCED BY EPISODES OF RAIN AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...BUT MAY RETURN SLIGHTLY AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW
. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS FRONT WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM.

BY LATE AFTERNOON...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM THE
ERN NEB LOW...INTO CNTRL KS...NWRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED...WITH THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS FROM ERN NEB INTO IA...AND PERHAPS SRN MN BY EVENING.

...ERN NEB...IA...SRN MN...WRN WI...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE WARM FRONT EARLY
WITH A THREAT OF HAIL. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS ALONG THE
FRONT...IT COULD MODULATE ITS LATITUDINAL LOCATION. HEATING WILL
OCCUR S OF THE FRONT...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH NEARS...SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE...WITH LARGE
LOOPING HODOGRAPHS NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
THIS WILL CONDITIONALLY
FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE GFS AND
EURO BOTH HAVE STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNALS ACROSS NRN IA...FAR SRN
MN...AND SWRN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING CLUSTERS OF
SEVERE STORMS ARE PROBABLE.

MEANWHILE TO THE SW...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SFC LOW CENTER ACROSS ERN NEB BY 21-00Z. GFS
SHOWS CLASSIC LOADED GUN TYPE SOUNDINGS OVER ERN NEB AHEAD OF THE
LOW
...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MIXED LAYERS JUST W OF THE
FRONT AT PEAK HEATING. WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG
FORCING...THE AREA FROM ERN NEB INTO CNTRL IA APPEARS TO HAVE THE
GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
. IF THE COLD AIR SURGES
QUICKER THAN FORECAST...A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE COULD RESULT...BUT
WITH EMBEDDED ROTATION AND LEWPS CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS.

A MODERATE RISK COULD BE ISSUED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS PREDICTABILITY
OF THIS SYSTEM INCREASES.


...OK...ERN KS...WRN MO...
LAPSE RATE PROFILES WILL STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO HEATING
AND UPPER COOLING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FORM ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AND QUICKLY BECOME A SQUALL LINE. THE STRONG FORCING AS
WELL AS AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT A LARGE LINEAR MCS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
AREAS OF LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD DECREASE ONCE
INDIVIDUAL STORM CELLS MERGE. THIS LINE SHOULD REMAIN SEVERE INTO
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT UNDERCUTS THE MCS.

..JEWELL.. 10/03/2013


Loaded Gun (Sounding) - [Slang], a sounding characterized by extreme instability but containing a cap, such that explosive thunderstorm development can be expected if the cap can be weakened or the air below it heated sufficiently to overcome it.

Weather Glossary for Storm Chasers-NWS Norman OK
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
20. beell
11:44 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
Evening, shore
It would seem that this blogger forgot to stay on primary task. Rain yesterday and today here. I will strive to do better as mid-month approaches.
:)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
19. shoreacres
6:35 PM GMT on October 02, 2013
About that sunshine I wanted.... ;)


The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
northwestern Galveston County in southeast Texas...
southeastern Harris County in southeast Texas...

* until 200 PM CDT

* at 101 PM CDT... Doppler radar indicated very heavy rain due to a
nearly stationary area of showers and thunderstorms. This will
cause Urban and Small Stream flooding in the advisory area. Up to
two inches of rain have already fallen... and an additional 1 to 3
inches of rain is possible.

* Some locations that will experience minor flooding include
southeastern Pasadena... northeastern League City... Texas City... La
Porte... Seabrook... Webster... Kemah... eastern Clear Lake... Nassau
Bay... Taylor Lake Village... El Lago... Shoreacres... Clear Lake
Shores... San Leon... Bacliff and the Johnson space center.
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
18. beell
11:12 AM GMT on October 02, 2013
By late this evening, 97L should finally pull itself together with respect to alignment as it pops out into the GOM. Some issues with SW shear will begin to have some limiting effect on intensification. Shear should slowly increase as the system approaches the Alabama coast and it begins to ease into the westerlies. Most of the weather may remain constrained to the eastern semi-circle.

The SE Louisiana Parishes along with coastal MS, AL and the Florida Panhandle will have some issues with tides and moderate coastal flooding as enough surface ridging to the north of 97L (probably (Karen)remains to tighten the pressure gradient. A prolonged period of increasing east and southeasterly winds. 97L should make TS status by tomorrow evening.

Early model rainfall estimates are running about 4-5 inches near landfall. Love to stay and chat but hump day is calling.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
17. beell
3:08 AM GMT on October 01, 2013
Evening, shore,

Ok, I will admit I have a soft spot for the prairie. Down in the creek bottoms among the cottonwoods the world comes back into close focus and some intimacy with the flora and fauna is easily achieved. A welcome break from the 1,000 yard stare up above the lip of the drainage. An oasis!

Of course, some of the homesteaders back in the day went crazy out there!

Sounds like a great trip!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
16. shoreacres
11:34 AM GMT on September 30, 2013
Well, the whole thing started as a run up to KCMO to see my aunt. Then, I thought I'd stop at the Crystal Bridges Museum on my way north. Then, I thought, "Well, there's no sense traveling the same path all the time". Since I'd resolved last year to go back to Chase County, Kansas (William Least Heat-Moon's "Prairy Erth" country)... well, one thing led to another.

Besides, don't you think three days at an old BNSF bunkhouse alongside active tracks at the edge of the Tallgrass Prairie would do just fine as a Palo Duro prelude? I sure do! Here's a photo I took last year, and here's the interior of my casita. The original eleven units have been reduced to three, and spiffed up a good bit. ;)

Now, I just need sunshine to finish a couple of jobs before I leave. All fingers and toes crossed!
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
15. beell
6:02 PM GMT on September 29, 2013
Afternoon, shore.
Unexpected company dropped in this weekend and derailed any plans I had. Although my social planner advised that advance notice was fairly given. I sorta remember something.

Anyway, gone now. Raining. Cloudy. Sunday. Quiet. Too wet to plow. Nice.

Sounds like a great trip you have planned. If it were me I think I would head straight for Palo Duro and call it good!
:)

Strong upper level westerlies appear to be setting in over the gulf to kick off the fall season. Even if a sneak disturbance could make it into our area, odds are it would find an inhospitable welcome.

As for the rest, it looks like "normal weather" for mid-October in the heart of 4-season country.



Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
14. NavarreMark
3:03 PM GMT on September 28, 2013
Quoting 12. beell:
Morning, Mark.

Don't cave to the overwhelming pressure to name an undeserving blob. Keep to your standards.

Mark will name no doom until afternoon...or somethin'.
:-0


I like it.
Member Since: September 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3981
13. shoreacres
2:38 PM GMT on September 28, 2013
Morning, beell. I've just been browsing the records, and it looks to me as though my plans to head out on a roadie October 16 or 17 should put me well past the time when even remnants from someone else's storm would put in an appearance here. You think?

On the itinerary: runestones in Oklahoma, Arkansas mountains, Missouri family and then - the Santa Fe trail out of Independence to Council Grove, Dodge City, Trinidad and then southeast to Palo Duro and the caprock.

What can I say? I just feel the need to get away. (I asked my boss, and she said it was fine, as long as I kept it off my expense account.)



Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
12. beell
2:20 PM GMT on September 28, 2013
Morning, Mark.

Don't cave to the overwhelming pressure to name an undeserving blob. Keep to your standards.

Mark will name no doom until afternoon...or somethin'.
:-0
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
11. NavarreMark
2:13 PM GMT on September 28, 2013
Quoting 10. beell:
East coast trough and the trough in the Caribbean starting to interact (phase) a bit. Some of the bears are beginning to watch.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2013

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
CONDITIONS COULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK WHILE
THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.






Good morning Beell. I may get a chance to name a D storm.
Member Since: September 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3981
10. beell
2:05 PM GMT on September 28, 2013
East coast trough and the trough in the Caribbean starting to interact (phase) a bit. Some of the bears are beginning to watch.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2013

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
CONDITIONS COULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK WHILE
THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.




Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
9. beell
1:52 AM GMT on September 27, 2013
LOL, shore. That is a dejected looking bear.

Hit ya back with a rerun:

Bears watching in Ernest...

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
8. shoreacres
1:46 AM GMT on September 27, 2013
Just when I thought the season was over and I could head out on vacation....

Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
7. beell
1:36 AM GMT on September 27, 2013
On the tropical front and a continuation of the previous guesses this morning, a long surface trough showing up over the Caribbean on WPC's Surface forecast for Monday (below). The Bears are not watching yet but a blob watch still expected.



The potential disturbance associated with an exiting shortwave trough is still expected to spawn a surface low off the Florida east coast this weekend and move north well off the mid-Atlantic coast.

It still appears to be non-tropical in nature but may slow down a bit after passing 40N as westerly flow leaves it behind and ridging builds back in to the north. Which should bring it back closer to the New England shoreline and ultimately cause some stormy weather for the Canadian Maritimes. No sign of bomb-o-genesis at this time.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
6. beell
1:08 AM GMT on September 27, 2013
Possibly an issue with moisture return with large surface Temp/Dewpoint spreads almost right up until time of frontal passage. But that would favor the wind threat as the rain-cooled downdrafts accelerate into the dry air below the boundary layer.

A 40 knot LLJ and the risk area just falling under the RRQ of a 100 knot upper level jet makes it worth watching tomorrow afternoon.

If low-level moisture return is faster or greater than modeled, a definite risk for a few tornadoes before the cold front undercuts the convection. Shear vectors more or less oriented parallel to the boundary would favor a quick evolution to a N/S squall line. Tornado threat may be greatest with some of the initial isolated cells that could turn to the right for a bit. But mainly a wind threat-as per the SPC discussion below.

First good potential for organized severe we have seen in a while.



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2013

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON
FRIDAY AS A 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES OUT ACROSS THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS ERN CO
AND WRN KS
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE NWD INTO
WRN KS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S F BY
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ENABLE MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY
MID-AFTERNOON FROM WEST TX NWD INTO SW KS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
INITIATING ON THE WRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AROUND 21Z. MODEL
FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT MOVING THUNDERSTORMS EWD ACROSS WRN
KS...THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES AND WEST TX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT AMARILLO TX AND GARDEN CITY KS AT 00Z/SAT SHOW
MLCAPE IN THE 1200 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE WITH 45 TO 50 KT OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR.
THIS ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT MAINLY WITH CELLS THAT REMAIN
DISCRETE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ROTATING STORMS. CURVED
HODOGRAPHS EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THAT A
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST. THE MODELS MARKEDLY INCREASE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO LINEAR DEVELOPMENT
WHERE THE GREATEST STORM COVERAGE OCCURS MAKING WIND DAMAGE THE MORE
DOMINANT THREAT. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD CONTINUE INTO THE
MID-EVENING ESPECIALLY IF A LINEAR MCS CAN ORGANIZE.


...UPPER MS VALLEY...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS.
SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
F. THIS SHOULD ENABLE AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL
AND NRN MN SWWD INTO ERN SD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS SUGGEST
THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS EARLY IN THE
DAY WITH ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN
MN AT 00Z/SAT SHOW SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG WITH 40 TO 45 KT OF
0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH
THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED.

..BROYLES.. 09/26/2013
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
5. beell
11:08 AM GMT on September 26, 2013
A snippet from the Caribbean Forecast Desk describing general synoptics over the Caribbean this weekend. The discussion is from yesterday but still valid per the 06Z GFS. At the very least, increasing moisture and lowered pressures over a broad area of the Caribbean.

An impending blob watch.


TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EDT WED SEP 25 2013


...ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...PATTERN IS GRADUALLY CHANGING FROM A
CURRENTLY DRY ONE INTO A WETTER ONE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEKEND

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER
POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST OF THE USA
INTO THE BAHAMAS.
DEEPENING TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ERODE CURRENTLY STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. AS TROUGH
DEEPENS...IT WILL ENTER IN PHASE AND INTERACT WITH TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS WILL INDUCE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE
. THE SURGE WILL TRANSPORT DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FROM CENTRAL VENEZUELA INTO
THE ABC/GUAJIRA PENINSULA AND THEN JAMAICA/HAITI/EASTERN CUBA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...



09/26 06Z GFS 700 mb heights, RH. Valid Sunday, 15Z
A bit of a look at the phasing of the inverted trough over the Caribbean and the mid latitude trough off the US east coast


09/26 06Z TAFB 72 hr Surface Forecast. Valid 00Z 09/29

And let's throw in a tropical wave forecast to be along 80W in approximately 72 hrs.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
4. ihave27windows
2:20 PM GMT on September 23, 2013
Morning Shore! It is....I guess I want a at least 50 degrees at night kind of front! =)

Yesterday my friend and I were able to walk two miles outside instead of on the treadmill!

Hope y'all have a great day.....I gotta run errands =/ oh what fun!
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14933
3. shoreacres
1:38 PM GMT on September 23, 2013
You betcha that first front is here - the windchimes are murmuring, the windows are open, and I'm actually looking forward to heading off to work. I should have left already, but doggone it - it's just so pleasant, sitting here in the breeze with a cup of coffee and the palms clacking.

Sigh. ;)

(Morning, 27! It's got to be just as nice up in Pasadena!)
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
2. beell
11:45 AM GMT on September 23, 2013
Maybe so, 27. It just might be over for us. According to wiki, 13 named storms have affected the Texas coast in October between 1980 and present. A few of those were cross-overs from the EPAC.

Our first real cold front? It's here! Low pressure in the gulf should keep us in the offshore flow for a couple days. Don't see much happening in the mid-range models (10 days).
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
1. ihave27windows
11:27 AM GMT on September 23, 2013
Good morning Mr. Beell,

Does this mean we are in the clear? Hope so!

When do we get our first real cold front?

Have a great day!

Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14933

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